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  • 1. Collenteur, R. A.
    et al.
    de Moel, H.
    Jongman, B.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    Uppsala universitet, Teknisk-naturvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Geovetenskapliga sektionen, Institutionen för geovetenskaper, Luft-, vatten och landskapslära.
    The failed-levee effect: Do societies learn from flood disasters?2015Ingår i: Natural Hazards, ISSN 0921-030X, E-ISSN 1573-0840, Vol. 76, nr 1, s. 373-388Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Human societies have learnt to cope with flood risks in several ways, the most prominent ways being engineering solutions and adaptive measures. However, from a more sustainable point of view, it can be argued that societies should avoid or at least minimize urban developments in floodplain areas. While many scientists have studied the impact of human activities on flood risk, only a few studies have investigated the opposite relationships, i.e. the impacts of past flood events on floodplain development. In this study, we make an initial attempt to understand the impact of the occurrence of flood disasters on the spatial distribution of population dynamics in floodplain areas. Two different methodologies are used to uncover this relationship, a large-scale study for the USA and a case-study analysis of the 1993 Mississippi flood. The large-scale analysis is performed at county level scale for the whole of the USA and indicates a positive relationship between property damage due to flood events and population growth. The case-study analysis examines a reach of the Mississippi river and the territory, which was affected by flooding in 1993. Contrary to the large-scale analysis, no significant relationship is found in this detailed study. However, a trend of dampened population growth right after the flood followed by an accelerated growth a decade later could be identified in the raw data and linked to explanations found in the literature.

  • 2.
    Cáceres, Diego
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet, Teknisk-naturvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Geovetenskapliga sektionen, Institutionen för geovetenskaper.
    Kulhánek, Ota
    Seismic Hazard of Honduras2000Ingår i: Natural Hazards, ISSN 0921-030X, E-ISSN 1573-0840, Vol. 22, nr 1, s. 49-69Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    In this paper we have described the proceduresused, input data applied and results achieved in ourefforts to develop seismic hazard maps of Honduras.The probabilistic methodology of Cornell is employed.Numerical calculations were carried out by making useof the computer code SEISRISK III. To examine theimpact of uncertainties in seismic and structuralcharacteristics, the logic tree formalism has beenused. We compiled a de-clustered earthquake cataloguefor the region comprising 1919 earthquakes occurringduring the period from 1963 to 1997. Unified momentmagnitudes were introduced. Definition of aseismotectonic model of the whole region under review,based on geologic, tectonic and seismic information,led to the definition of seven seismogenetic zones forwhich seismic characteristics were determined. Fourdifferent attenuation models were considered. Resultsare expressed in a series of maps of expected PGA for60% and 90% probabilities of nonexceedence in a50-year interval which corresponds to return periodsof 100 and 475 years, respectively. The highest PGAvalues of about 0.4g (90% probability ofnon-exceedence) are expected along the borders withGuatemala and El Salvador.

  • 3.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    et al.
    School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, University Road, Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK .
    CASTELLARIN, A
    MONTANARI, A
    BRATH, A
    Probability-weighted hazard maps for comparing different flood risk management strategies: a case study2009Ingår i: Natural Hazards, ISSN 0921-030X, E-ISSN 1573-0840, Vol. 50, nr 3, s. 479-496Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The study proposes an original methodology for producing probability-weighted hazard maps based on an ensemble of numerical simulations. These maps enable one to compare different strategies for flood risk management. The methodology was applied over a 270-km2 flood-prone area close to the left levee system of a 28-km reach of the river Reno (Northern Central Italy). This reach is characterised by the presence of a weir that allows controlled flooding of a large flood-prone area during major events. The proposed probability-weighted hazard maps can be used to evaluate how a structural measure such as the mentioned weir alters the spatial variability of flood hazard in the study area. This article shows an application by constructing two different flood hazard maps: a first one which neglects the presence of the weir using a regular levee system instead, and a second one that reflects the actual geometry with the weir. Flood hazard maps were generated by combining the results of several inundation scenarios, simulated by coupling 1D- and 2D-hydrodynamic models.

  • 4.
    Garcia-Urquia, Elias
    Uppsala universitet, Teknisk-naturvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Tekniska sektionen, Institutionen för teknikvetenskaper, Tillämpad mekanik, Byggteknik. National Autonomous University of Honduras.
    Establishing Rainfall Frequency Contour Lines as thresholds for rainfall-induced landslides in Tegucigalpa, HondurasIngår i: Natural Hazards, ISSN 0921-030X, E-ISSN 1573-0840Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 5.
    Garcia-Urquia, Elias
    Uppsala universitet, Teknisk-naturvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Tekniska sektionen, Institutionen för teknikvetenskaper, Tillämpad mekanik. Natl Autonomous Univ Honduras, Sch Civil Engn, Ciudad Univ, Tegucigalpa, Honduras..
    Establishing rainfall frequency contour lines as thresholds for rainfall-induced landslides in Tegucigalpa, Honduras, 1980-20052016Ingår i: Natural Hazards, ISSN 0921-030X, E-ISSN 1573-0840, Vol. 82, nr 3, s. 2107-2132Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    In this paper, a method to derive rainfall thresholds based on the relationship between daily and the antecedent rainfall up to 6 days prior to landslide occurrence is proposed for the analysis of 134 landslide days in Tegucigalpa, Honduras, during the years 1980-2005. Based on a simple graphical procedure, rainfall frequency contour lines have been drawn in the daily versus antecedent rainfall plots to connect rainfall combinations relatively having the same frequency of occurrence. A two-bound threshold has been established: Below the lower bound, rainfall events are so frequent that any landslide day may only occur due to a significant anthropogenic disturbance, while, above the upper bound, rainfall alone is capable of inducing landslide days. Contour lines originating at the same daily rainfall value in all plots were then grouped together to form a threshold set, for which the number of well-predicted landslide days and false alarms was determined. It has been determined that 16 and 84 landslide days have fallen below the lower bound and above the upper bound, respectively. In addition, this method has been proven effective in the distinction between days with and without landslides, since it has led to a 23 % reduction in the number of false alarms per well-predicted landslide day when compared to a previously established threshold line for Tegucigalpa.

  • 6.
    Garcia-Urquia, Elias
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet, Teknisk-naturvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Tekniska sektionen, Institutionen för teknikvetenskaper, Tillämpad mekanik. National Autonomous University of Honduras.
    Axelsson, Kennet
    Uppsala universitet, Teknisk-naturvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Tekniska sektionen, Institutionen för teknikvetenskaper, Tillämpad mekanik.
    The use of press data in the development of a database for rainfall-induced landslides in Tegucigalpa, Honduras, 1980–20052014Ingår i: Natural Hazards, ISSN 0921-030X, E-ISSN 1573-0840, Vol. 73, nr 2, s. 237-258Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The capital city of Honduras, Tegucigalpa, suffers from the occurrence of destructive landslides on a yearly basis. During the rainy season, damages to infrastructure as well as injuries, casualties and homeless individuals resulting from landslides are reported in the press. This paper presents the development of a database for rainfall-induced landslides for the period 1980–2005, based on the news reported by two local newspapers. The editions comprehended during the study period have been scrutinized, and articles focusing on landslides, tropical storms, hurricanes, floods and vulnerability of the city have been collected. The interpretation of these archives has allowed the compilation of valuable data of approximately 400 landslides. The analyses of monthly and annual precipitation during the study period show how extreme rainfall events like Hurricane Mitch in October of 1998 have significantly contributed to the initiation of landslides. In addition, the assessment of the slums and neighborhoods affected by landslides during the study period reveals an evident link between the social and physical vulnerability of Tegucigalpa. In order to estimate the reliability of this press-based database, the set of landslides that have been reported as a result of Hurricane Mitch in the press archives has been compared with two inventories based on the interpretation of aerial photographs taken in 1999 and 2001. It is shown that the analysis of the landslide damage left after the hurricane can be enriched with the detailed temporal data provided in the archives and the precise location of these events determined by the aerial photographs. Despite the difficulties faced in the compilation of this database, a good comprehension of the temporal and spatial distribution of landslides in Tegucigalpa has been achieved.

  • 7.
    Hagos, Lijam
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet, Teknisk-naturvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Geovetenskapliga sektionen, Institutionen för geovetenskaper, Geofysik.
    Arvidsson, Ronald
    Uppsala universitet, Teknisk-naturvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Geovetenskapliga sektionen, Institutionen för geovetenskaper.
    Roberts, Roland
    Uppsala universitet, Teknisk-naturvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Geovetenskapliga sektionen, Institutionen för geovetenskaper.
    Application of the spatially smoothed seismicity and Monte Carlo methods to estimate the seismic hazard of Eritrea and the surrounding region2006Ingår i: Natural Hazards, ISSN 0921-030X, E-ISSN 1573-0840, Vol. 39, nr 3, s. 395-418Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The region of interest is characterized by incomplete data sets and little information about the tectonic features. Therefore, two methodologies for estimating seismic hazard were used in order to elucidate the robustness of the results: the method of spatially smoothed seismicity introduced by Frankel (1995) and later extended by Lapajne et al. (1997) and a Monte Carlo approach presented by Ebel and Kafka (1999). In the first method, fault-rupture oriented elliptical Gaussian smoothing was performed to estimate future activity rates along the causative structures. Peak ground accelerations were computed for a grid size of 15 km x 415 km assuming the centre of the grids as epicentres, from which the seismic hazard map was produced. The attenuation relationship by Ambraseys et al. (1996) was found suitable for the region under study. PGA values for 10% probability of exceedence in 50 years (return period of 475 years) were computed for each model and a combined seismic hazard map was produced by subjectively assigning weights to each of these models. A worst-case map is also obtained by picking the highest value at each grid point from values of the four hazard maps. The Monte Carlo method is used to estimate seismic hazard, for comparison to the results from our previous approach. Results obtained from both methods are comparable except values in the first set of maps estimate greater hazard in areas of low seismicity. Both maps indicate a higher hazard along the main tectonic features of the east African and Red Sea rift systems. Within Eritrea, the highest PGA exceeded a value 25% of g, located north of Red Sea port of Massawa. In areas around the capital, Asmara, PGA values exceed 10% of g.

  • 8.
    Soto Gómez, Agnes Jane
    Uppsala universitet, Teknisk-naturvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Geovetenskapliga sektionen, Institutionen för geovetenskaper, Luft-, vatten och landskapslära.
    Deriving information on disasters caused by natural hazards from limited data: a Guatemalan case study2015Ingår i: Natural Hazards, ISSN 0921-030X, E-ISSN 1573-0840, Vol. 75, nr 1, s. 71-94Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This work proposes a method to overcome data limitations encountered when analyzing disasters at a local scale in disaster-prone areas. Research is required to understand the processes underlying the disasters in disaster-prone areas. However, many such areas lack sufficient data for the statistically significant studies that would strongly support disaster risk-reduction measures. Disasters are studied extensively at the national scale, but local-scale disaster research is greatly needed, specifically because the hazard exposures and vulnerabilities of populations are mainly site specific. The proposed method compiles data using two databases: the System of Information Management in case of Emergency or Disaster (SISMICEDE) and the Disaster Inventory System (DesInventar). SISMICEDE has a short time span and high spatial resolution, while DesInventar has a longer time span but low spatial resolution. SISMICEDE’s spatial distribution was used to sort DesInventar disaster data, analyzing them spatially and temporally at a local scale. The Samala River basin in Guatemala was selected to exemplify a disaster-prone area for which there are insufficient disaster data. The results indicate that it was useful to combine the two databases to optimally describe disasters over time and space in the studied area. The refinement of the disaster data highlighted the discrepancies between administrative boundaries and local particularities. The results indicate that the municipal scale is too sparse for spatial analyses and that specific location details are needed. According to the limited data available, disasters, during the rainy season, are increasing over time in the study area. This work demonstrates a way to perform local-scale disaster studies of areas for which data are not readily available. These local-scale studies would enable research and actions intended to improve disaster risk-reduction management and measures. This study could also help promote an improved information system in Guatemala that includes complete information useful for emergency response and post-disaster analyses.

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