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  • 1.
    Davies, Shawn
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Pettersson, Therese
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Öberg, Magnus
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Organized violence 1989-2021 and drone warfare2022In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 59, no 4, p. 593-610Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article reports on trends in organized violence, building on new data by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). The falling trend in fatalities stemming from organized violence in the world, observed between 2014 and 2019, was decisively reversed in 2021 as fatalities increased significantly. UCDP registered more than 119,100 deaths in organized violence in 2021, a 46% increase from the previous year. The increase was largely driven by escalating conflicts in Afghanistan, Ethiopia, and Yemen. Fatalities increased in all three categories of organized violence, despite a decrease in the number of active state-based conflicts, as well as the number of actors carrying out one-sided violence against civilians. UCDP recorded 54 state-based conflicts in 2021, a decrease by two compared to the previous year. Five of the conflicts were active at the intensity of war, the lowest number of wars since 2010. Violence in 2021 was thus concentrated to fewer but bloodier conflicts. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), commonly known as drones, have become increasingly important features of modern conflicts, and the trend in their usage is discussed in the special feature section. UAV usage has since 2019 dispersed among a significant larger number of actors, even as the downscaling in the involvement of the United States in the war on terror has led to a decrease in drone-related fatalities.

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  • 2.
    Davies, Shawn
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Pettersson, Therese
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Öberg, Magnus
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Organized violence 1989-2022, and the return of conflict between states2023In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 60, no 4, p. 691-708Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article reports on trends in organized violence, building on new data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). In 2022, fatalities from organized violence increased by a staggering 97%, compared to the previous year, from 120,000 in 2021 to 237,000 in 2022, making 2022 the deadliest year since the Rwandan genocide in 1994. The increase was driven by two, particularly deadly, state-based armed conflicts: the Russia-Ukraine war, and the war in Ethiopia against TPLF (Tigray People's Liberation Front). With more than 81,500 and 101,000 fatalities respectively, these are the two most deadly state-based conflict-years recorded in the post-1989 period. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is the first large-scale interstate war in 20 years, and the first interstate armed conflict since World War II where a major power in the international system seeks both territorial gains for itself and the subjugation of another state through regime change. We have witnessed an emerging trend of increased conflict between states in the last decade, including cases where major powers support opposite sides in internationalized intrastate conflict. UCDP recorded 55 active state-based armed conflicts in 2022, an increase of one compared to the previous year. Eight of these conflicts reached the level of war. While the fatalities caused by non-state conflict decreased somewhat when compared to 2021, the number of non-state conflicts, as well as both the number of civilians killed in one-sided violence and the number of actors carrying out such violence, increased in 2022.

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  • 3.
    Frida, Möller
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Peter, Wallensteen
    Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Magnus, Öberg
    Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Conflict Prevention in Ethnic Conflicts, 1990-19982006Conference paper (Other scientific)
  • 4.
    Hall, Jonathan
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Kahn, Dennis T.
    Skoog, Eric
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Öberg, Magnus
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    War exposure, altruism and the recalibration of welfare tradeoffs towards threatening social categories2021In: Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, ISSN 0022-1031, E-ISSN 1096-0465, Vol. 94, article id 104101Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    How does war shape human altruism? Some find warfare increases generosity within groups only. Others maintain that war’s prosocial effects extend to outgroup members as well. To make sense of these disparate findings, we offer a theoretical framework that highlights the role of threat sensitivity in altruism. Refugees from Syria and Iraq (N = 1521) completed a welfare tradeoff task and threat perceptions scale where the other's group identity, gender and age were experimentally varied. We found that individuals belonging to social categories associated with more threat (outgroup members, males, and younger individuals) were afforded less altruism compared to individuals belonging to non-threatening social categories (ingroup members, females and the elderly). War exposure enhanced bias against threatening social categories through increased threat-sensitivity. Our results have implications for understanding how warfare shapes altruism and welfare tradeoffs in light of cross-cutting social categories and for policies promoting post-conflict cooperation.

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  • 5.
    Höglund, Kristine
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Öberg, Magnus
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Doing Empirical Peace Research2011In: Understanding Peace Research: Methods and Challenges / [ed] Kristine Höglund and Magnus Öberg, London and New York: Routledge , 2011, p. 3-13Chapter in book (Refereed)
  • 6.
    Höglund, Kristine
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Öberg, Magnus
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Improving Information Gathering and Evaluation2011In: Understanding Peace Research: Methods and Challenges / [ed] Kristine Höglund and Magnus Öberg, London: Routledge , 2011, p. 185-198Chapter in book (Refereed)
  • 7.
    Höglund, Kristine
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Öberg, MagnusUppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Understanding Peace Research: Methods and Challenges2011Collection (editor) (Refereed)
  • 8.
    Melander, Erik
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Hammarström, Mats
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Öberg, Magnus
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Forced Expulsion of Civilians in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo: Report to the Swedish Emergency Management Agency2006Report (Other academic)
  • 9.
    Melander, Erik
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Möller, Frida
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Öberg, Magnus
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Managing Intrastate Low-intensity Armed Conflict 1993-2004: A New Dataset2009In: International Interactions, ISSN 0305-0629, E-ISSN 1547-7444, Vol. 35, no 1, p. 58-85Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article presents a new event dataset covering third-party measures in intrastate low-intensity conflict dyads for the period 1993-2004, Managing Low-Intensity Intrastate Conflict (MILC). The rationale behind MILC is to enable the systematic study of third-party conflict management activities that might contribute to preventing these minor conflicts from escalating to the level of full-scale war. Intrastate armed conflict dyads are followed, and third-party activities mapped, until the dyad escalates to full-scale war or the dyad becomes inactive. The dataset contains information on the intermediaries as well as the different types of measures undertaken. The data include measures such as different types of talks, good offices, arbitration, fact-finding missions, permanent observation missions, and peacekeeping. In addition, a wealth of novel descriptive findings is presented, such as the distribution of third-party efforts over regions as well as over individual conflict dyads. We notice that the Middle East attracts the most third-party involvement relative to the number of active conflict dyads. Asia, in contrast, is relatively neglected given the high number of conflicts on the continent. The trend in third-party activity over time is presented, and we show that the number of third-party efforts globally is relatively constant over the period of study with the exception of a dramatic spike in activity related to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in the years 2000-2002. The distribution of different types of measures and third parties is also presented. The most active third parties include several major powers and intergovernmental organizations, but also a few middle powers.

  • 10.
    Melander, Erik
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Öberg, Magnus
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Forced Migration: the Effects of Magnitude and Scope of Fighting2004Report (Other academic)
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  • 11.
    Melander, Erik
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Öberg, Magnus
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    The Threat of Violence and Forced Migration: Geographical Scope Trumps Intensity of Fighting2007In: Civil Wars, Vol. 9, no 2, p. 156-173Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 12.
    Melander, Erik
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Öberg, Magnus
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Time to Go?: Duration Dependence in Forced Migration2006In: International Interactions, ISSN 0305-0629, Vol. 32, no 2, p. 129-152Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 13.
    Melander, Erik
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Öberg, Magnus
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Hall, Jonathan
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Are ‘New Wars’ More Atrocious?: Battle Severity, Civilians Killed and Forced Migration Before and After the End of the Cold Wa2009In: European Journal of International Relations, ISSN 1354-0661, E-ISSN 1460-3713, Vol. 15, no 3, p. 505-536Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    It is widely believed that the human impact of civil conflict in the present era is especially destructive. Proponents of the 'new wars' thesis hold that today's conflicts are fuelled by exclusive identities, motivated by greed in the absence of strong states, and unchecked by the disinterested great powers, resulting in increased battle severity, civilian death and displacement. The ratio of civilian to military casualties is claimed to have tilted, so that the overwhelming majority of those killed today are civilians. Using systematic data that are comparable across cases and over time we find that, contrary to the 'new wars' thesis, the human impact of civil conflict is considerably lower in the post-Cold War period. We argue that this pattern reflects the decline of ideological conflict, the restraining influence of globalization on governments, and the increasing rarity of superpower campaigns of destabilization and counter-insurgency through proxy warfare.

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  • 14.
    Melander, Erik
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Öberg, Magnus
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Hall, Jonathan
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Nothing New Under the Sun: The Atrociousness of 'New wars'2006Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 15.
    Melander, Erik
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Öberg, Magnus
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Hall, Jonathan
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    The ‘New Wars’ Debate Revisited: An Empirical Evaluation of the Atrociousness of ‘New Wars’2006Report (Other academic)
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  • 16.
    Melander, Erik
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Öberg, Magnus
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Hammarström, Mats
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Intensity, Scope, and Duration: Accounting for Variations in Forced Migration 1964-19992003Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 17.
    Möller, Frida
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Öberg, Magnus
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Third Party Mediated Talks in Intrastate Low-Intensity Conflicts: Topics and Timing2010Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 18.
    Möller, Frida
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Öberg, Magnus
    Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Wallensteen, Peter
    Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Conflict Prevention in ethnic Conflicts 1990-1998. Paper presented at the 46th Annual International Studies Association Convention, Honolulu, Hawaii, March 1-5, 2005.2005Conference paper (Other (popular scientific, debate etc.))
  • 19.
    Pettersson, Therese
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Davies, Shawn
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Deniz, Amber
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Engström, Garoun
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Hawach, Nanar
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Högbladh, Stina
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Sollenberg, Margareta
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Öberg, Magnus
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Organized violence 1989-2020, with a special emphasis on Syria2021In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 58, no 4, p. 809-825, article id 00223433211026126Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article reports on trends in organized violence, building on new data by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). The falling trend in fatalities stemming from organized violence in the world, observed for five consecutive years, broke upwards in 2020 and deaths in organized violence seem to have settled on a high plateau. UCDP registered more than 80,100 deaths in organized violence in 2020, compared to 76,300 in 2019. The decrease in violence in Afghanistan and Syria was countered by escalating conflicts in, for example, Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh), Azerbaijan and Tigray, Ethiopia. Moreover, the call for a global ceasefire following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic failed to produce any results. In fact, the number of active state-based and non-state conflicts, as well as the number of actors carrying out one-sided violence against civilians, increased when compared to 2019. UCDP noted a record-high number of 56 state-based conflicts in 2020, including eight wars. Most of the conflicts occurred in Africa, as the region registered 30 state-based conflicts, including nine new or restarted ones.

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  • 20.
    Pettersson, Therese
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Öberg, Magnus
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Organized violence, 1989-20192020In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 57, no 4, p. 597-613Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article reports on trends in organized violence, building on new data by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). The defeat of Islamic State (IS) in Syria and Iraq has pushed the number of fatalities, almost 75,600, to its lowest level since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011. However, this de-escalation in Syria is countered by increased violence in Africa, as IS and other transnational jihadist groups have relocated their efforts there. Furthermore, violence has continued to increase in Afghanistan; UCDP recorded more than 31,200 fatalities in Afghanistan in 2019, which accounts for 40% of all fatalities from organized violence across the globe. The general decline in fatalities from organized violence does not correspond with the trend in the number of active conflicts, which remained on a historically high level. UCDP recorded 54 state-based conflicts in 2019, including seven wars. Twenty-eight state-based conflicts involved IS (Islamic State), al-Qaida or their affiliates. In the past decade, conflicts involving these transnational jihadist groups have driven many of the trends in organized violence.

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  • 21.
    Pettersson, Therése
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Högbladh, Stina
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Öberg, Magnus
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Organized violence, 1989-2018 and peace agreements2019In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 56, no 4, p. 589-603Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article reports on trends in organized violence and peace agreements collected by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). The number of fatalities in organized violence decreased for the fourth consecutive year, to reach the lowest level since 2012. In 2018, UCDP recorded almost 76,000 deaths: a decrease of 20% compared to 2017, and 43% compared to the latest peak in 2014. State-based armed conflict drives this downward trend in organized violence, with Syria accounting for much of the change. The number of civilians killed in one-sided violence also dropped in 2018, reaching its lowest level since 2012. In contrast, non-state conflict remained on a high level. The general decline in fatalities from organized violence does not correspond with the trend in the number of active conflicts. In fact, the world has seen a new peak in the number of conflicts after 2014, matched only by the number of conflicts in the early 1990s. In 1991, the peak in the number of armed conflicts corresponded with a similar peak in the number of signed peace agreements. This was followed by a decrease in the number of conflicts in the late 1990s and early 2000s. However, the most recent rise in armed conflicts has not been matched by a similar rise in the number of peace agreements. Two circumstances that characterize the recent rise in conflicts have also been found to make conflicts harder to solve: explicit religious claims and high levels of internationalization.

  • 22.
    Öberg, Magnus
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Challenges to State Authority: An empirical test of a costly signaling model of ethnic conflict2002Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 23.
    Öberg, Magnus
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Ethnic Challenges to State Authority 1990-19982001Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 24.
    Öberg, Magnus
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Explaining Interethnic Cooperation1998Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 25.
    Öberg, Magnus
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    La cooperación y el manejo del conflicto en las sociedades masivas: El rol de las asociaciones civiles2001In: Coloquio: democracia, administración de justicia y resolución de conflictos, Tribunal de Supremo Justicia , 2001Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 26.
    Öberg, Magnus
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Modeling Interethnic Relations: Sketching an Alternative to Fearon and Laitin’s Model of Interethnic Cooperation1998In: : Joint Meeting of the ECPR Standing Group on International Relations and the International Studies Association, Vienna, 16th – 19th September, 1998, 1998Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 27.
    Öberg, Magnus
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Non-Strategic Explanations for the Onset of Ethnopolitical Rebellion: An Analysis and Critique2000Report (Other academic)
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  • 28.
    Öberg, Magnus
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Signaling and Self-Selection: The Escalation of Ethnic Conflict to War2003Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 29.
    Öberg, Magnus
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    The Onset of Ethnic War as a Bargaining Process: Testing a Signaling Model2002Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Most theories of ethnic conflict explain ethnic war by reference to the factors that motivate and enable ethnic groups to rebel. To rebel is to rise up against or challenge government authority; but for war to be the outcome of a challenge the government must attempt to forcefully reassert its authority.

    In this dissertation I use a signaling model to explain both why ethnic groups challenge government authority, and under what circumstances this leads to war. The model is tested on a new data set covering 653 ethnic groups and 67 challenges to government authority, 1990-1998. The data includes all ethnic groups in the Minorities at Risk data set, plus an additional 370 groups to control for potential sampling bias.

    The signaling model depicts escalation as a bargaining process. The intuition is that through a process of self-selection less resolute actors tend to drop out earlier in the game, while more resolute actors stay in. The consequences are sometimes counterintuitive.

    The findings show that smaller ethnic groups are less likely to challenge their governments than are larger groups, but when smaller groups do challenge they are more likely to end up in war. The results also show that groups scoring higher on indicators of discontent are more likely to challenge, but surprisingly these groups are not more likely to end up in war when they challenge. These and similar findings which hold across a range of specifications clearly demonstrate the selection effects implied by the signaling model.

  • 30.
    Öberg, Magnus
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Why Rebel?: Exploring some theoretical and empirical implications of a signaling model of rebellion, with data from Sub-Saharan Africa 1989-19982000Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 31.
    Öberg, Magnus
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Melander, Erik
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Quality of Government and Civil War2010Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 32.
    Öberg, Magnus
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Melander, Erik
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Quality of Government and Civil War2005Conference paper (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 33.
    Öberg, Magnus
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Möller, Frida
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Wallensteen, Peter
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Early conflict prevention in ethnic conflicts, 1990-1998: a New Data Set2009In: Conflict Management and Peace Science, ISSN 0738-8942, E-ISSN 1549-9219, Vol. 26, no 1, p. 69-93Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    n this article we present a new dataset: the Early Conflict Prevention in Ethnic Crises dataset (ECPEC). It contains data on operational conflict prevention in 67 ethnic crises in the period 1990—98 that vary in terms of both preventive action and crisis outcomes. The new dataset thus allows for the evaluation of the effects of different types of preventive measures and also gives an overview of who takes what measures and in what conflicts. The global overview shows some interesting patterns. Preventive activity in the escalatory phase of ethnic conflict is dominated by verbal attention and facilitation. Coercive measures are rarely employed prior to the outbreak of war. Preventive action is most common in Europe and the Middle East, while crises in Asia tend to receive comparatively little attention. Most of the preventive action is focused on a relatively small number of high profile cases like those in Northern Ireland, the Balkans, Afghanistan, and Iraq. Major Powers (with the exception of China), neighboring states, the UN, and regional organizations are the most active interveners. To illustrate the usefulness of a large-N dataset on preventive measures, we also present a first analysis of the effects of different types of measures. The findings suggest that diplomatic measures and relief efforts both have conflict dampening effects, while carrots (inducements) increase the likelihood of escalation to war. Other measures show no significant effects in this sample. The findings also show that third parties are more likely to intervene in conflicts that are more prone to escalate to war. This implies that unless we account for the propensity of third parties to intervene in the more difficult cases, we risk underestimating the effects of preventive measures.

  • 34.
    Öberg, Magnus
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Sollenberg, Margareta
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Gathering conflict information using news resources2011In: Understanding peace research: methods and challenges / [ed] Kristine Höglund and Magnus Öberg, London: Routledge, 2011, p. 47-73Chapter in book (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Every minute of every day, hundreds if not thousands of journalists around the world are working to collect and disseminate information on matters related to armed conflicts. Journalists provide ‘a first rough draft of history that will never really be completed about a world we can never really understand.

  • 35.
    Öberg, Magnus
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Sollenberg, Margareta
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    O ensino da análise de conflictos: Sugestões sobre a utilizacão dos media como recurso para a análise de conflitos2003In: Fogo Sobre os Media: informação, conhecimento e crítica em conflitos armados, Coimbra: Quarteto , 2003Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 36.
    Öberg, Magnus
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Sollenberg, Margareta
    Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Teaching Conflict Analysis: Suggestions on the Use of Media as a Resource for Conflict Analysis2003In: The Emotion and the Truth: Studies in Mass Communication and Conflict, HumanitariaNet, Bilbao , 2003Chapter in book (Other scientific)
  • 37.
    Öberg, Magnus
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Strøm, Kaare
    Conclusions2008In: Resources, governance and civil conflict, Oxford: Routledge , 2008Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 38.
    Öberg, Magnus
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Strøm, Kaare
    Introduction2008In: Resources, governance and civil conflict, Oxford: Routledge , 2008Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 39.
    Öberg, Magnus
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Strøm, Kaare
    Resource, governance and civil conflict2008Book (Other academic)
  • 40.
    Öberg, Magnus
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Taub, Samuel
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Möller, Frida
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Challenges from within: Introducing the Uppsala Coup Events Dataset2011Conference paper (Other academic)
1 - 40 of 40
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