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  • 1.
    Brosché, Johan
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning. Department of Economic History and International Relations, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Sundberg, Ralph
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning. Swedish Defense University, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Conceptualizing Civil War Complexity2023Ingår i: Security Studies, ISSN 0963-6412, E-ISSN 1556-1852, Vol. 32, nr 1, s. 137-165Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Civil wars that appear to observers to be the most complex—even using a colloquial understanding of the concept—are also those that seem to register the most intense fighting, the most prolonged spells of war, and the most resistance to durable conflict resolution. But what does it really mean for a civil war to be complex? We currently lack a concept of “civil war complexity” that can help us better understand the most important variations in civil wars across time and space. To address this gap we develop a conceptualization of “civil war complexity” consisting of three dimensions—“actor complexity,” “behavior complexity,” and “issue complexity”—and demonstrate how they manifest empirically. We also highlight this conceptualization’s utility—and the danger of overlooking it—through the case of Darfur. This conceptualization paves the way for a new research agenda that explores how civil wars differ in terms of their complexity, the causes and consequences of civil war complexity, and how to refine conflict resolution techniques and strategies.

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  • 2.
    Cil, Deniz
    et al.
    Univ Maryland, Dept Govt & Polit, College Pk, MD 20742 USA.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Hultman, Lisa
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Mapping Blue Helmets: Introducing the Geocoded Peacekeeping Operations (Geo-PKO) dataset2020Ingår i: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 57, nr 2, s. 360-370Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    In this article, we introduce the Geocoded Peacekeeping Operations (Geo-PKO) dataset, which presents new data on subnational peacekeeping deployment for all UN missions to Africa, 1994–2014. The Geo-PKO dataset is the most comprehensive dataset of its kind and enables scholars to address new questions about peacekeeping operations and their effects by exploring variations in peacekeeping at the subnational level. The dataset offers information on several key features of peacekeeping deployment at the local level, such as data on the size of deployments and how these vary over time, as well as information on the location of mission headquarters, the type of peacekeepers deployed, and which troop-contributing countries deploy to each location. This article describes the data collection process and illustrates some of the many utilities of this dataset for the scholarly community. For example, we show that peacekeeping troops are able to reduce battle-related violence in areas with high road density, suggesting that peacekeepers’ ability to project their power is stronger when they can increase their reach and more easily patrol larger territories. Hence, our data can fruitfully be combined with information such as socio-economic, geographical or demographic characteristics, to further explore how peacekeeping operations can contribute to peace and security in the areas where they operate. By providing fine-grained data on the location of peacekeepers across time and space, the Geo-PKO dataset should help facilitate important inquires that can push the research agenda on peacekeeping forward.

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  • 3.
    Elfversson, Emma
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    The pursuit of inclusion: Conditions for civil society inclusion in peace processes in communal conflicts in Kenya2022Ingår i: Cooperation and Conflict, ISSN 0010-8367, E-ISSN 1460-3691, Vol. 57, nr 2, s. 171-190Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Why are some peace processes in communal conflicts more inclusive of civil society actors than others? Inclusion of civil society actors, such as churches and religious leaders, women’s organizations, or youth groups, is seen as important for normative reasons, and studies also suggest that civil society inclusion can improve the prospects for durable peace. Yet, we have a very limited understanding of why we observe inclusion in some communal conflicts but not others. We address this gap by theorizing about various forms of civil society inclusion in local peace processes, and examining to what extent involvement by different types of third-party actors—governments, inter-governmental organizations (IGOs), and non-governmental organizations (NGOs)—may contribute to inclusion. Empirically, we draw on a combination of cross-case and in-depth data covering peace negotiations in communal conflicts in Kenya. The findings show that civil society was less frequently included as facilitators when the government was involved as a third party, while inclusion in the form of direct participation of civil society in negotiations, or via involvement in the implementation phase, was equally common across different types of third-party actors. Our study thus provides important new insights regarding how inclusion plays out in communal conflicts.

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  • 4. Eschmann, Nathanael
    et al.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Better together?: Civil society coordination during peace negotiations2023Ingår i: Cooperation and Conflict, ISSN 0010-8367, E-ISSN 1460-3691, Vol. 58, nr 1, s. 42-60Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Extensive research has been conducted in the field of peacebuilding concerning the role of civil society in peace negotiations. However, although research has stressed the importance of coordination among civil society groups, we have limited knowledge concerning the impact civil society coordination can have on the content of a peace agreement. This article addresses this gap by examining how the extent of coordination among civil society groups during peace negotiations influences the reflectiveness of a peace agreement in regard to civil society viewpoints. We argue that a high extent of coordination, where civil society actors coordinate tasks and spearhead viewpoints together, can help facilitate peace agreements that are more reflective of civil society group views. Based on a comparative analysis of Guatemala and El Salvador, the findings show that whereas coordination between different civil society groups was quite extensive in both peace processes, civil society viewpoints were inscribed into the peace agreement to a larger extent in the Guatemalan case. We identify two factors that contribute in shaping how coordination influences the content of peace accords: symmetrical transfer of information, and openness from the negotiation parties to consider suggestions from civil society.

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  • 5.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Hultman, Lisa
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Protection Through Presence: UN Peacekeeping and the Costs of Targeting Civilians2019Ingår i: International Organization, ISSN 0020-8183, E-ISSN 1531-5088, Vol. 73, nr 1, s. 103-131Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Are UN peacekeepers effective in protecting civilians from violence? Existing studies examine this issue at the country level, thereby making it difficult to isolate the effect of peacekeepers and to assess the actual mechanism at work. We provide the first comprehensive evaluation of UN peacekeeping success in protecting civilians at the subnational level. We argue that peacekeepers through their sizable local presence can increase the political and military costs for warring actors to engage in civilian targeting. Since peacekeepers' access to civilian populations rests on government consent, peacekeepers will primarily be effective in imposing these costs on rebel groups, but less so for government actors. To test these conjectures we combine new monthly data on the location of peacekeepers with data on the location and timing of civilian killings in Africa. Our findings suggest that local peacekeeping presence enhances the effectiveness of civilian protection against rebel abuse, but that UN peacekeeping struggles to protect civilians from government forces.

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  • 6.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Hultman, Lisa
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    The UN’s Defining Challenge: Peacekeeping and Protection of Civilians2018Övrigt (Övrig (populärvetenskap, debatt, mm))
  • 7.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Rebels against Rebels: Explaining Violence between Rebel Groups2012Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution, ISSN 0022-0027, E-ISSN 1552-8766, Vol. 56, nr 4, s. 604-628Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Rebel groups that confront the government frequently become engaged in fierce and violent struggles with other groups. Why does a rebel group who is already fighting with the government become engaged in yet another struggle, thereby sacrificing scarce resources in the fight against other rebel groups? This article addresses this puzzle by providing the first global study on the determinants of interrebel violence. The authors argue that this violence should be understood as a means to secure material resources and political leverage that can help the group prevail in the conflict with the government. The quantitative analysis builds on new data on armed conflict between nonstate actors, 1989-2007. The results show that interrebel conflict is more likely when the rebel group fights in an area with drug cultivation, when the group is in control of territory beyond government reach, when the group is either militarily strong or weak in relation to other rebels, and where state authority is weak.

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  • 8.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning. PRIO, Oslo, Norway.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    The Rise of Rebel Contenders: Barriers to entry and fragmentation in civil wars2018Ingår i: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 55, nr 5, s. 551-565Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [sv]

    Fragmentation of armed opposition movements through the rise of new rebel groups constitutes a significant challenge to conflict termination and peacebuilding. Yet, the question of why some rebel movements remain cohesive whereas others see a number of contending groups during the course of the armed conflict has received limited attention in existing research. This article addresses this gap by analyzing the determinants of the rise of rebel contenders in intrastate armed conflicts worldwide, 1975–2013. The theoretical framework focuses on barriers to entry, that is, variations in the costs and disadvantages that must be borne by nascent rebel contenders that are not borne to the same extent by incumbent rebel groups. The study proposes that strong social networks underpinning incumbent groups create structural barriers to entry for nascent groups by aggravating challenges of organization building. It further suggests that the interaction between incumbent groups and the government influences strategic barriers to entry as changes in government policies produce windows of opportunity for nascent groups to form. Consistent with these arguments, the study finds that when incumbent groups have strong networks – because rebels either tap into ethnic networks or draw on a leftist ideology – the risk of fragmentation is lower. Furthermore, when the government accommodates groups, through either negotiations or democratic concessions, the risk of fragmentation increases.

  • 9.
    Hegre, Håvard
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning. Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO).
    Allansson, Marie
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Basedau, Matthias
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning. German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    Colaresi, Michael
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning. University of Pittsburgh.
    Croicu, Mihai
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Hoyles, Frederick
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Hultman, Lisa
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Högbladh, Stina
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Jansen, Remco
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Mouhleb, Naima
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Muhammad, Sayyed Auwn
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning. Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO).
    Olafsdottir, Gudlaug
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Petrova, Kristina
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Randahl, David
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Rød, Espen Geelmuyden
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Schneider, Gerald
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning. University of Konstanz.
    von Uexkull, Nina
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Vestby, Jonas
    ViEWS: A political violence early-warning system2019Ingår i: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 56, nr 2, s. 155-174Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This article presents ViEWS – a political violence early-warning system that seeks to be maximally transparent, publicly available, and have uniform coverage, and sketches the methodological innovations required to achieve these objectives. ViEWS produces monthly forecasts at the country and subnational level for 36 months into the future and all three UCDP types of organized violence: state-based conflict, non-state conflict, and one-sided violence in Africa. The article presents the methodology and data behind these forecasts, evaluates their predictive performance, provides selected forecasts for October 2018 through October 2021, and indicates future extensions. ViEWS is built as an ensemble of constituent models designed to optimize its predictions. Each of these represents a theme that the conflict research literature suggests is relevant, or implements a specific statistical/machine-learning approach. Current forecasts indicate a persistence of conflict in regions in Africa with a recent history of political violence but also alert to new conflicts such as in Southern Cameroon and Northern Mozambique. The subsequent evaluation additionally shows that ViEWS is able to accurately capture the long-term behavior of established political violence, as well as diffusion processes such as the spread of violence in Cameroon. The performance demonstrated here indicates that ViEWS can be a useful complement to non-public conflict-warning systems, and also serves as a reference against which future improvements can be evaluated.

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  • 10.
    Hultman, Lisa
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Leis, Maxine
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Employing Local Peacekeeping Data to Forecast Changes in Violence2022Ingår i: International Interactions, ISSN 0305-0629, E-ISSN 1547-7444, Vol. 48, nr 4, s. 823-840Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    One way of improving forecasts is through better data. We explore how much we can improve predictions of conflict violence by introducing data reflecting third-party efforts to manage violence. By leveraging new sub-national data on all UN peacekeeping deployments in Africa, 1994–2020, from the Geocoded Peacekeeping (Geo-PKO) dataset, we predict changes in violence at the local level. The advantage of data on peacekeeping deployments is that these vary over time and space, as opposed to many structural variables commonly used. We present two peacekeeping models that contain several local peacekeeping features, each with a separate set of additional variables that form the respective benchmark. The mean errors of our predictions only improve marginally. However, comparing observed and predicted changes in violence, the peacekeeping features improve our ability to identify the correct sign of the change. These results are particularly strong when we limit the sample to countries that have seen peacekeeping deployments. For an ambitious forecasting project, like ViEWS, it may thus be highly relevant to incorporate fine-grained and frequently updated data on peacekeeping troops.

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  • 11.
    Höglund, Kristine
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Violence and Peace Processes2022Ingår i: Contemporary Peacemaking: Peace Processes, Peacebuilding and Conflict / [ed] Roger Mac Ginty & Anthony Wanis-St. John, Palgrave Macmillan, 2022, 3rd, s. 289-306Kapitel i bok, del av antologi (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Car bombings, kidnappings, political assassinations, conventional battles and street protests. These are all types of violence that can occur conjointly with efforts to negotiate and implement peace. This chapter addresses the role of violence as an influence on peace negotiations. We look at its main characteristics in terms of the actors involved, targets and motives, as well as chart the main modes by which domestic and international actors seek to prevent and stop violence that threaten to undermine peace efforts.

  • 12.
    Jarstad, Anna
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Statsvetenskapliga institutionen. Umeå universitet.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Making and keeping promises: regime type and powersharing pacts in peace agreements2018Ingår i: Peace and Change, ISSN 0149-0508, E-ISSN 1468-0130, Vol. 43, nr 2, s. 1-27Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Power sharing is increasingly recognized as an important tool forcreating sustainable peace in war-torn societies. However, we have limitedknowledge concerning why political, territorial, and military power-sharingpacts are reached and implemented. This article addresses this gap by providinga global study examining the signing and implementation of powersharing pactsin intrastate armed conflicts. We focus on how the type of political regime caninfluence these choices and theorize about the strategic incentives for warringparties in different types of regimes to sign and implement different pacts.Our large-N analysis is based on data on power-sharing provisions in eighty-threepeace accords in forty intrastate armed conflicts between 1989 and 2004. Inline with our theoretical expectations, we find that political and militarypacts are more likely to be signed in autocracies, whereas territorial pactsare more common in democracies. Somewhat surprisingly, we find no difference inthe implementation patterns across regimes.

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  • 13.
    Jarstad, Anna
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Political Pacts- No Promise of Peace?: no promise of peace2006Ingår i: Paper prepared for the 2006 Conference on Globalization and Peacebuilding, arranged by the Swedish Network of Peace, Conflict and Development Research, Uppsala, 6–8 November 2006, and for the 40th Annual Meeting of the Peace Science Society, Columbus, Ohio, 10–12 November 2006., 2006Konferensbidrag (Övrig (populärvetenskap, debatt, mm))
    Abstract [en]

    Do political power-sharing arrangements lead to durable peace? Power sharing has become a preferred choice for policy makers to facilitate peacebuilding. However, the scientific support of the effectiveness of power sharing in this regard remains weak. In some cases, such as South Africa, power sharing is indeed associated with democracy and peace. On the other hand, the genocide in Rwanda, following a settlement containing provisions for power sharing, suggests that such changes of power balance can at worst be followed by violent conflict. Also statistical analyses indicate mixed results. Barbara Walter (2002) find that negotiated settlements, which include provisions of power sharing in the central government, may serve to reduce the risk of recurring conflict. In contrast, Matthew Hoddie and Caroline Hartzell (2005) do not find political power sharing in peace agreements to significantly affect the duration of peace.

    These mixed results suggest a need for a deeper analysis of the logic and consequences of power sharing. Drawing on insights from consociational theory we propose that settlements that include provisions for political power sharing should lead to peace if the parties agree on a political pact and if such promises are implemented. Firstly, such pacts guarantee a share of political power, which can enable the parties in overcoming the uncertainties involved in a peace process. Secondly, implementation of political power sharing allows for protracted negotiations in which the parties settle their main incompatibilities in iterative rounds of cooperation and compromises.

    We identify two main limitations in the literature on this topic. The first concerns the definitions used to examine the effect of political power-sharing on durable peace. One possible explanation to the mixed results is that different definitions of political power-sharing are employed. In line with consociational theory, political pacts that guarantee seats in the central government is a central component of political power-sharing (Lijphart 1977; Walter 2002). In other studies, political power-sharing is defined broadly and also includes cases of proportional electoral systems (e.g. Hartzell and Hoddie 2003; Mukherjee 2006). However, when using such a wide definition it is not possible to single out the effect of political pacts on durable peace. Second, previous research only to some extent investigates the implementation of political power sharing. In one of the few studies that do analyze implementation of political pacts, the absence of war is included as an integral part of the definition of implementation (Walter 2002). For this reason, we do not know if the implementation itself has effects on the duration of peace.

    To address these limitations, we introduce the IMPACT dataset (Implementation of Pacts). This new dataset not only contains information on whether the agreements entail provisions concerning political, military and territorial pacts, but also unique data on whether and when these pacts have been implemented. This dataset builds on information from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) and includes all 83 peace agreements signed by the government and one or more rebel groups in internal armed conflicts during the period 1989–2004 (UCDP 2006). We include more peace agreements stipulating political pacts than previous research by studying the entire post-Cold War period, examining full-scale civil wars as well as low intensity armed conflicts, and by focusing not only on the agreements signed by all or the main warring parties.

    The results of this study challenges conventional wisdom and puts into question the effectiveness of political power sharing as a tool for conflict resolution. The findings indicate that even when using a definition that captures the very essence of power sharing by focusing on guaranteed positions in central government, no significant influence on durable peace is found. Perhaps even more surprising, political pacts that are implemented are not shown to enhance the prospects for lasting peace.

  • 14.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Agreements and Sustainability2010Ingår i: The Oxford International Encyclopedia of Peace: Volume I / [ed] Nigel J. Young, New York: Oxford University Press , 2010, s. 30-32Kapitel i bok, del av antologi (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
  • 15.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Anchoring the Peace: Civil Society Actors in Peace Accords and Durable Peace2012Ingår i: International Interactions, ISSN 0305-0629, E-ISSN 1547-7444, Vol. 38, nr 2, s. 243-266Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Is peace more likely to prevail when the peace accord includes civil society actors such as religious groups, women's organizations, and human rights groups? This is the first statistical study that explores this issue. The article develops key claims in previous research regarding the role of civil society actors and durable peace, and proposes a set of hypotheses that focus on legitimacy in this process. The hypotheses are examined by employing unique data on the inclusion of civil society actors in all peace agreements in the post-Cold War period. The statistical analysis shows that inclusion of civil society actors in the peace settlement increases the durability of peace. The results further demonstrate that peace accords with involvement from civil society actors and political parties in combination are more likely to see peace prevail. The findings also suggest that inclusion of civil society has a particularly profound effect on the prospects for overall peace in nondemocratic societies.

  • 16.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Civil society in peace accords and the durability of peace2014Ingår i: Accord : an international review of peace initiatives, ISSN 1365-0742, Vol. 25Artikel i tidskrift (Övrig (populärvetenskap, debatt, mm))
  • 17.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Crafting a Secure Peace: Evaluating Liberia’s Comprehensive Peace Agreement 20032009Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
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    fulltext
  • 18.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    In the Shadow of Settlement: Multiple Rebel Groups and Precarious Peace2006Doktorsavhandling, monografi (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    How can durable peace be achieved in the wake of a civil war settlement? Previous quantitative research on this topic has, so far, mainly focused on two parties – the government and the opposition – thereby failing to consider the complexity that may arise in conflicts where the rebel side involves several groups. This dissertation addresses this gap in the study of durable peace. It demonstrates theoretically and empirically that three aspects are of significance for lasting peace: (1) the number of warring parties, (2) the inclusion of rebel groups in peace agreements, and (3) the military strength of the signatories. The study applies a bargaining perspective, where uncertainty about the parties’ capability and resolve serves as a key explanation for why peace prevails or breaks down following a settlement. The empirical analysis is based on a unique set of data covering peace agreements in internal armed conflicts during the post-Cold War period. Employing statistical methods, it is found that, with an increasing number of warring parties, peace is less likely to endure. It is also found that more inclusive deals, contrary to a common view, do not increase the likelihood that peace prevails. However, inclusion can make a difference for some parties, as signatories are more likely to stick to peace than parties outside of an agreement. This suggests that no particular formula, in terms of the number of signatories, is required for peace to last. Peace is also shown to be more fragile if the signatory rebel group is strong rather than weak relative to the government, indicating that military power is of importance. In sum, the present research demonstrates that it is pivotal for our understanding of durable peace to consider the complexities that come with a multiparty setting.

  • 19.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Inclusive Peace Deals: A Path to Durable Peace in Africa?2012Ingår i: From Intra-State War to Durable Peace: Conflict and its Resolution in Africa after the Cold War / [ed] Thomas Ohlson, Dordrecht: Republic of Letters Publishing, 2012Kapitel i bok, del av antologi (Refereegranskat)
  • 20.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Internally Displaced, Refugees and Returnees from and in the Sudan. A Review2000Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
  • 21.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Liberia - The Eye of the Storm: A Review of the Literature on Internally Displaced, Refugees and Returnees2003Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
  • 22.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Partial Peace: Rebel Groups Inside and Outside of Civil War Settlements2008Ingår i: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 45, nr 4, s. 479-495Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Previous research proposes that peace is more likely to become durable if all rebel groups are included in the settlement reached. The argument implies that if actors are excluded and continue to pursue the military course, this could have a destabilizing effect on the actors that have signed an agreement. This article argues that all-inclusive peace deals - signed by the government and all rebel groups - are not the panacea for peace that many seem to believe. Given that the parties are strategic actors who are forward-looking when making their decisions, the signatories should anticipate that the excluded parties may continue to fight. Therefore, the risk of violent challenges from outside actors is likely to already be factored into the decisionmaking calculus when the signatories decide to reach a deal, and so does not affect their commitment to peace. Implications from this theoretical argument are tested using unique data on the conflict behavior of the government and each of the rebel groups in internal armed conflicts during the post-Cold War period. The results are well in line with the theoretical expectations and show that whether an agreement leaves out some actor does not affect whether the signatories stick to peace. The results demonstrate that, even when excluded rebel groups engage in conflict, this does not affect the signatories' commitment to peace. Hence, the findings suggest that partial peace is possible.

  • 23.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Partial Peace: Rebel Groups Inside and Outside of Civil War Settlements2008Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
  • 24.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Rebels on the Outside: Signatories signaling commitment to durable peace2008Ingår i: Resources, governance and civil conflict / [ed] Magnus Öberg & Kaare Strom, London: Routledge , 2008Kapitel i bok, del av antologi (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
  • 25.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Rebels, Resolve and Resolution: Conflict in the Shadow of Settlements2005Ingår i: Presented at the 46th Annual International Studies Association Convention, Hawaii, 1-5 March, 2005Konferensbidrag (Övrig (populärvetenskap, debatt, mm))
  • 26.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Signing and Sticking to Peace2005Ingår i: Presented at the Jan Tinbergen Peace Science Conference, Amsterdam, 27–29 June, 2005Konferensbidrag (Övrig (populärvetenskap, debatt, mm))
  • 27.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    So Many Rebels, So Little Peace: Conflict in the Aftermath of Agreement2005Ingår i: Presented at 39th Annual Meeting of the Peace Science Society, Iowa City, 4–6 November, 2005Konferensbidrag (Övrig (populärvetenskap, debatt, mm))
  • 28.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    The Rebels on the Outside: Power and Uncertainty after Peace Agreements2004Ingår i: The Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association (APSA), 2004Konferensbidrag (Övrig (populärvetenskap, debatt, mm))
  • 29.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    The Significance of Signing: Who Fights After Peace Agreements in Civil Wars2004Ingår i: The 45th Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, 2004Konferensbidrag (Övrig (populärvetenskap, debatt, mm))
  • 30.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Turning Weakness into Strength: Military Capabilities, Multiple Rebel Groups and Negotiated Settlements2010Ingår i: Conflict Management and Peace Science, ISSN 0738-8942, E-ISSN 1549-9219, Vol. 27, nr 3, s. 253-271Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The fact that many civil wars involve several warring parties is often highlighted as an obstacle to conflict resolution. However, this issue has so far attracted little attention in previous research. This article aims to contribute to filling this gap. It is argued that whereas only very strong rebel groups should be able to force concessions, a multiparty context can turn the tables and increase the chances for weak rebel groups to reach a deal. The empirical analysis is based on dyadic data covering the government and each rebel group in all internal armed conflicts, 1989-2003. In accordance with the theory, it is found that the likelihood that the government and a weak rebel group will reach a negotiated settlement increases with the number of warring parties in the conflict.

  • 31.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Kovacs, Mimmi Söderberg
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Dealing with Divergence: Intra-party Dynamics and Spoiler Management in Civil Wars2023Ingår i: Journal of Global Security Studies, ISSN 2057-3170, E-ISSN 2057-3189, Vol. 8, nr 2, artikel-id ogad003Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Civil war peace processes are frequently accompanied by spoiler behavior relating to intra-party divergence, such as leadership struggles or breakaway groups, which risk undermining the implementation of a peace accord. However, previous literature has not sufficiently explored how third-party actors can address spoiler behavior linked to such intra-party aspects. This study addresses this gap by providing an empirical analysis of a few illustrative cases of spoiler behavior by armed actors in two peace processes in West Africa—Sierra Leone after the 1999 Lomé peace accords and Liberia after the 2003 Accra peace agreement. We find that in contexts where there is a vertical divergence between the leader and the rest of the group, divisive strategies—aimed to divide and rule or marginalize—are effective. In contrast, in situations of horizontal divergence between different factions that are more equal in power, integrative strategies—aimed at unifying the ranks or reconciling a divided leadership—are more appropriate. This study enhances our understanding of how third-party strategies can be devised to manage intra-party divisions that otherwise may threaten a transition from war to peace.

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  • 32.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Kovacs Söderberg, Mimmi
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Different Paths of Reconstruction: Military Reform in Post-War Sierra Leone and Liberia2013Ingår i: International Peacekeeping, ISSN 1353-3312, E-ISSN 1743-906X, Vol. 20, nr 1, s. 2-16Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Security Sector Reform (SSR) has developed into a key component of international peacebuilding agendas. However, there is a lack of sufficient knowledge of the advantages and drawbacks of different reform processes. This study offers a comparative analysis of two post-war states with diverse approaches to the reconstruction of the national armed forces after a civil war: Sierra Leone after the 1999 Lome Peace Accord, where the competing warring parties were integrated into a single force; and Liberia following the 2003 Accra Peace Agreement, where the old army was disbanded and a new force was recruited and built from scratch. The findings show that each approach was associated with distinct benefits and risks during the implementation process. However, the outcomes are also similar in many important respects, and raise questions about the long-term sustainability of these reforms.

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  • 33.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Martínez Lorenzo, Luís
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Paths to Inclusion: Civil Society Involvement during the Peace Process in Algeria2023Ingår i: Conflict Mediation in the Arab World / [ed] Ibrahim Freihat & Isak Svensson, Syracuse, NY: Syracuse University Press, 2023, s. 357-381Kapitel i bok, del av antologi (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
  • 34.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Mapping armed conflicts over Islamist claims: exploring regional variations2017Ingår i: SIPRI Yearbook 2017: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security, London: Oxford University Press, 2017, s. 58-65Kapitel i bok, del av antologi (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
  • 35.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Pushing the doors open: Nonviolent action and inclusion in peace negotiations2023Ingår i: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 60, nr 1, s. 58-72Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Whereas previous research shows that peace agreements which include a broad segment of society are more likely to lead to sustainable peace, little effort has gone into explaining inclusion itself. We address this gap in the literature by providing the first large-N study to examine the causes of inclusive peace negotiations across civil wars. We argue that civil society actors can gain leverage through mobilization of civilian protest, or build trust through dialogue efforts, thereby enhancing the chances of inclusion of non-warring actors at the negotiation table. The argument is examined by analysing unique and new monthly data on peacemaking efforts in all intrastate armed conflicts in Africa and the Americas, 1989–2018, including measures beyond mere nominal participation, such as whether civil society actors or political parties had substantive roles as either mediators or full participants at the peace talks. Our findings show that protests by civil society actors increase the likelihood that non-warring actors will have a seat at the negotiation table, whereas we find no such effect concerning dialogue efforts. The article contributes by providing new insights into how nonviolent action can shape peace processes by opening the doors to negotiations and is thus part of an emerging research agenda that seeks to bring together the fields of civil resistance and inclusive peace processes.

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  • 36.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Resisting Resolution: Islamist Claims and Negotiations in Intrastate Armed Conflicts2020Ingår i: International Negotiation, ISSN 1382-340X, E-ISSN 1571-8069, Vol. 25, nr 3, s. 389-412Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The prevalence of Islamist armed conflicts is an important problem of our time. One pivotal question that remains unexplored is whether conflicts fought over Islamist claims are more or less likely to be negotiated, and if so, why? This paper provides the first large-N study exploring the relationship between Islamist claims and negotiations in all intrastate armed conflicts for the time period 1975–2011. We argue that the transnational dimension can serve to make some Islamist conflicts resistant to peaceful resolution attempts. Our findings show that while conflicts over Islamist claims generally are no more likely to see negotiations, there is significant variation within this category. When we disaggregate Islamist conflicts, we find that transnational Islamist conflicts are less likely to experience negotiations, whereas conflicts fought over separatist or revolutionary Islamist claims are no more likely to see negotiations.

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  • 37.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    The Intractability of Islamist Insurgencies: Islamist Rebels and the Recurrence of Civil War2021Ingår i: International Studies Quarterly, ISSN 0020-8833, E-ISSN 1468-2478, Vol. 65, nr 3, s. 620-632Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    There is a large research field focusing on the recurrence of civil wars, yet this literature has omitted to seriously consider religious dimensions and ideational features of armed conflicts. To address this gap, we provide the first global study exploring whether, and why, Islamist civil wars—armed conflicts fought over self-proclaimed Islamist aspirations—are more or less likely to recur compared to other conflicts. We argue that civil wars fought over Islamist claims are more likely to relapse because the ideational features of these conflicts increase the uncertainty regarding the capabilities of the warring actors in terms of the extent and nature of transnational support that may be forthcoming, for rebels as well as the government. In line with our argument, we find that Islamist civil wars are significantly less likely to be terminated and more likely to recur once ended. Thus, our results demonstrate that Islamist civil wars represent a particular challenge with regard to the goal of achieving durable peace.

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  • 38.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    What We Know - and Don't Know - about Religious Civil Wars2018Övrigt (Övrig (populärvetenskap, debatt, mm))
  • 39.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Women, Peace and Security: Women's Organizations in Peace-Making2020Övrigt (Övrig (populärvetenskap, debatt, mm))
  • 40.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Magalhães Teixeira, Barbara
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Martínez Lorenzo, Luís
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Ruus, Anton
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    In the Streets and at the Table: Civil Society Coordination during Peace Negotiations2020Ingår i: International Negotiation, ISSN 1382-340X, E-ISSN 1571-8069, Vol. 25, nr 2, s. 225-251Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    When bringing armed conflicts to a peaceful end, the inclusion of civil society in peacemaking is a vital task. However, whereas previous research on civil society inclusion has made significant advancements, surprisingly little attention has been paid to analyzing how civil resistance and mass action may interact with more elite-driven approaches during peace processes. This study addresses this research gap by examining the interplay between elite and mass-based civil society approaches in three different peace processes in civil wars in Africa in the post-Cold War period: Liberia, the Central African Republic (CAR), and Burundi. We advance the literature by developing a framework that focuses on coordination of these different efforts and we explore this interplay empirically. With this study, we aim to broaden the research agenda, allowing for future synergies at the research frontier of mass action and the inclusion of civil society in peace processes.

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  • 41.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Sandyarani, Utami
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Civil society protests and inclusive peace talks2023Övrigt (Övrig (populärvetenskap, debatt, mm))
    Abstract [en]

    What are the drivers of inclusion in peace negotiations? How can meaningful participation in peace processes be ensured? This research brief shows that civil society engagement, in the form of non-violent protests, demonstrations, or other forms of street action can help shape the conditions for inclusive peace talks in civil wars. We also present trends and patterns based on data on civil society engagement across civil wars in Africa, the Americas, and the Middle East. We propose three recommendations directed at international peacebuilding actors who strive to promote inclusive peace processes.

    This brief is part of a research brief series generated by a joint initiative by the Folke Bernadotte Academy (FBA) and the African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD). The aim of the series is to contribute to policy development by bringing cutting-edge research on key issues within mediation to the attention of policy makers and practitioners. The topics to be explored in the series were selected during joint discussions within the FBA initiative “Improving Mediation Effectiveness” throughout 2021-2023. The Initiative brought together policymakers, practitioners, and researchers within the mediation field to discuss challenges and opportunities for greater effectiveness in mediation. The editorial committee has consisted of Dr. Niklas Hultin, Agnes Cronholm, Dr. Johanna Malm and Maja Jakobsson from FBA, and Andrea Prah from ACCORD. We would like to thank the members of the Mediation Support Network for comments. The views and opinions expressed in the brief series are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the collaborating partners.

  • 42.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Söderberg Kovacs, Mimmi
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Breaking the Cycle of Violence: Promises and Pitfalls of the Liberian Peace Process2005Ingår i: Presented at the Nordic Africa Days, Uppsala, 30 Sept-2 Oct, 2005Konferensbidrag (Övrig (populärvetenskap, debatt, mm))
  • 43.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Söderberg Kovacs, Mimmi
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Revisiting an Elusive Concept: A Review of the Debate on Spoilers in Peace Processes2011Ingår i: International Studies Review, ISSN 1521-9488, E-ISSN 1468-2486, Vol. 13, nr 4, s. 606-626Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    In a seminal article, Stedman (International Security, 22, 1997, 5) suggested that the greatest source of risk to civil war peace processes comes from so-called spoilers, leaders, and groups that perceive peace as threatening and use violence to undermine attempts to achieve it. The spoiler concept has since gained significant ground and widespread legitimacy both in the academic literature and in critical policy circles. In the footsteps of this development, however, we suggest that the spoiler concept has been stretched beyond its original meaning and given raise to a number of ambiguities concerning its definition and empirical applicability. This lack of clarity in regard to some of the key aspects of the spoiler concept does not only risk undermining the usefulness of the concept itself, but also risks hampering the accumulation of valuable research on this pertinent topic. This article presents a reflection on a burgeoning research field and aims to contribute to the same by attempting to offer greater conceptual clarity in regard to a number of issues that are the core of the spoiler debate and by presenting a conceptual framework for analyzing spoilers in future research.

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    fulltext
  • 44.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Söderberg, Mimmi
    På väg mot fred i Liberia?2003Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
  • 45.
    Svensson, Isak
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Capitalizing on Cleavages: Transnational Jihadist Conflicts, Local Fault Lines and Cumulative Extremism2022Ingår i: Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, ISSN 1057-610X, E-ISSN 1521-0731, s. 1-19Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Trans-national jihadist groups have established themselves across many contexts. However, we have limited knowledge about the larger picture of how such groups tap into various inter-religious, sectarian, or ethnic divisions. To address this research gap, we explore: How do trans-national jihadist groups mobilize on the basis of different forms of identity cleavages? Our empirical analysis focuses on all trans-national jihadist groups who have challenged governments in civil wars. We find that mobilization along ethnic divisions is the most common cleavage, and is increasing most over time. We also find that sectarian mobilization is rare, but associated with significant escalation of violence.

    Ladda ner fulltext (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 46.
    Svensson, Isak
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Disputes over the Divine: Introducing the Religion and Armed Conflict (RELAC) data, 1975–20152018Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution, ISSN 0022-0027, E-ISSN 1552-8766, Vol. 62, nr 5, s. 1127-1148Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This article introduces the Religion and Armed Conflict (RELAC) data, 1975 to 2015, which is a new data set suitable for analyzing the causes, dynamics, and resolution of religious conflicts. It contains information about key religious dimensions of conflicts: whether the issue at stake is religious, the actors’ religious identity, and fine-grained data about the type and salience of religious claims. The article presents the major features of the data set and describes patterns and trends that shed new light on religious conflicts, for example, by demonstrating that conflicts over Islamist claims have become more prevalent. We also illustrate the utility of the data. For instance, we show that there is great variation in lethality across conflicts with different types of Islamist claims, thereby offering a more nuanced understanding of the deadliness of religious conflicts. RELAC should be a valuable resource for scholars, examining religious dimensions of intrastate armed conflicts.

    Ladda ner fulltext (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 47.
    Söderberg Kovacs, Mimmi
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning.
    Breaking the Cycle of Violence?: Promises and Pitfalls of the Liberian Peace Process2005Ingår i: Civil Wars, ISSN 13698249, Vol. 7, nr 4, s. 19-Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
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