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  • 1.
    Aggestam, Karin
    et al.
    Lund University.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Where Are the Women in Peace Mediation?2018In: Gendering Diplomacy and International Negotiation / [ed] Karin Aggestam & Ann E. Towns, Palgrave Macmillan, 2018, p. 149-168Chapter in book (Refereed)
  • 2. Bamber, Matthew
    et al.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Resisting Radical Rebels: Variations in Islamist Rebel Governance and the Occurrence of Civil Resistance2023In: Terrorism and Political Violence, ISSN 0954-6553, E-ISSN 1556-1836, Vol. 35, no 5, p. 1126-1146Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    During the Syrian civil war, different types of Salafi-Jihadi rebel groups controlled territory and established governance over civilians. Their governing strategies have been markedly diverse. In this study, we explore how this governance variation can help to explain the occurrence of civil resistance. We suggest that different types of rebel governance structures provide political opportunities for civilians to mobilize against those rebel groups through public demonstrations. In particular, we argue that it is middle-ranged opportunity structures of rebel governance that strongest incentivizes civil resistance, by giving enough space for civilian mobilization but fewer alternative channels of expressing discontent. This argument is explored through an analysis of the variation between the three main Salafi-Jihadi rebel groups in Syria – IS, HTS and Ahrar al-Sham. We show how differences in the groups’ four rebel governance dimensions – rebel collaboration, civilian inclusion, alliance structure, and repression – impact the political opportunities for civilians to mobilize against these groups. We find that HTS, the group that is in the middle range across these four governance dimensions, provided greater opportunity for civilian protests. This study uses a new dataset of civilian resistance events in Syria as well as interviews with civilians governed by these groups.

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  • 3.
    Bobekova, Elvira
    et al.
    University of Otago, New Zealand .
    Pearce Smith, Scott
    University of Otago, New Zealand .
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. University of Otago, New Zealand.
    Rivers of Peace: Institutionalized Mekong River Cooperation and The East Asian Peace2013In: European Journal of East Asian Studies, ISSN 1568-0584, E-ISSN 1570-0615, Vol. 12, p. 7-34Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    East Asia represents a remarkable example of a region that has transformed from one of the most violent in the world, in terms of interstate wars and internationalised intrastate conflicts, towards a relatively peaceful region. What explains East Asian peace? This study adopts an institutional perspective, arguing that a crucial role in the creation and development of East Asia’s peace, and in the Mekong region in particular, has been the emergence of transnational river cooperation in the Mekong Basin. It examines the nature and drivers of such institutional cooperation. Explanations can be found in a combination of external support from third parties, and an internal economic growth imperative held by the Mekong states themselves. It provides useful policy lessons for the creation and development of peace and cooperation through institution-building.

  • 4.
    Brosché, Johan
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Brounéus, Karen
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Forsberg, Erika
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Hegre, Håvard
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Hultman, Lisa
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Höglund, Kristine
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Lindgren, Mathilda
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Melander, Erik
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Themnér, Anders
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Wallensteen, Peter
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Nio punkter för global fred (Nine Points for Global Peace)2015Other (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
    Abstract [sv]

    Insatserna för global fred måste stärkas skriver tolv företrädare för institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning apropå att världens ledare samlas i dag i New York för att anta 17 nya globala mål för en bättre värld och mer hållbar utveckling.

  • 5.
    Butcher, Charles
    et al.
    University of Otago.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. University of Otago, National Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies, Dunedin, New Zealand.
    Manufacturing Dissent: Modernization and the Onset of Major Nonviolent Resistance Campaigns2016In: Journal of Conflict Resolution, ISSN 0022-0027, E-ISSN 1552-8766, Vol. 60, no 2, p. 311-339Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A growing research field examines the conditions under which major nonviolent resistance campaigns—that is, popular nonviolent uprisings for regime or territorial change—are successful. Why these campaigns emerge in the first place is less well understood. We argue that extensive social networks that are economically interdependent with the state make strategic nonviolence more feasible. These networks are larger and more powerful in states whose economies rely upon organized labor. Global quantitative analysis of the onset of violent and nonviolent campaigns from 1960 to 2006 (NAVCO), and major protest events in Africa from 1990 to 2009 (SCAD) shows that the likelihood of nonviolent conflict onset increases with the proportion of manufacturing to gross domestic product. This study points to a link between modernization and social conflict, a link that has been often hypothesized, but, hitherto, unsupported by empirical studies.

  • 6.
    Duursma, Allard
    et al.
    Swiss Fed Inst Technol, CSS, Haldeneggsteig 4, CH-8006 Zurich, Switzerland.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Introducing an Agenda-based Measurement of Mediation Success: The Divergent Effects of the Manipulation Strategy in African Civil Wars2019In: International Negotiation, ISSN 1382-340X, E-ISSN 1571-8069, Vol. 24, no 2, p. 296-323Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Previous quantitative mediation research has relied on generalized measurements of "mediation success," such as agreements, ceasefires or peace durability. However, these measurements of success do not take into account what mediators were mandated to achieve. We propose benchmarking outcomes against the explicit mandates of the interventions, a novel way of conceptualizing mediation success. Utilizing data on the agendas of mediated negotiations in intrastate armed conflicts in Africa between 1990 and 2010 as a proxy for mediation mandates, we examine the relative effectiveness of manipulation as a mediation strategy. The study shows, in contrast to previous research, that third party manipulation does not have a significant effect on whether the goal of a given round of negotiations is achieved and, that under some circumstances, may decrease the likelihood of mediation success. We discuss the opportunities as well as limitations of a mandate-based approach to the study of mediation success.

  • 7.
    Engvall, Anders
    et al.
    Stockholm Sch Econ, Sveavagen 65, S-11383 Stockholm, Sweden..
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Peace Talks and Valid Spokespersons: Explaining the Onset of Negotiations in Southern Thailand2020In: International Negotiation, ISSN 1382-340X, E-ISSN 1571-8069, Vol. 25, no 3, p. 495-518Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    There have been several attempts to find negotiated solutions to the armed conflicts in Southern Thailand. Yet, these attempts of accommodation and mediated peace negotiations were aborted without any concrete results, with the exception of a formal peace process being officially launched in 2013. What explains the readiness of the parties to the conflict to enter negotiations at this stage, but not at earlier attempts? We argue that the political context can help to explain why some negotiation attempts result in negotiations, whereas others do not. We analyze the factors behind the readiness of the two sides - the Thai state and the Patani separatist insurgency - to sit down for official peace negotiations, focusing on the presence of valid spokespersons, which is an understudied element of 'ripeness'. This case demonstrates that the problem of finding valid spokespersons may be an obstacle for peace processes especially in religiously defined conflicts.

  • 8.
    Finnbogason, Daniel
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Larsson, Göran
    Univ Gothenburg, Dept Literature Hist Ideas & Relig, Gothenburg, Sweden.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Is Shia-Sunni Violence on the Rise?: Exploring New Data on Intra-Muslim Organised Violence 1989-20172019In: Civil Wars, ISSN 1369-8249, E-ISSN 1743-968X, Vol. 21, no 1, p. 25-53Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This data study provides the first comprehensive empirical overview of organised violence across the Shia and Sunni Muslim divide, 1989-2017. We present a conceptual framework of sectarian dimensions of armed conflicts: sectarian identities; sectarian ideologies; and sectarian alliances. Our analysis demonstrates the extent to which organised violence has been fought across the Shia-Sunni divide. We also explore the sectarian identity dimension in non-state armed conflicts and one-sided violence. Overall, our study shows that most of the organised violence across the Shia-Sunni divide is driven by states, rebel groups, and militias, rather than communities.

  • 9.
    Finnbogason, Daniel
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    The missing jihad: Why have there been no jihadist civil wars in Southeast Asia?2018In: The Pacific Review, ISSN 0951-2748, E-ISSN 1470-1332, Vol. 31, no 1, p. 96-115Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Why has there been no jihadist civil war in Southeast Asia? Although there has been a global surge in armed conflicts where at least one side fights for self-proclaimed Islamist aspirations, the region of Southeast Asia stands out by not having experienced a single jihadist civil war after 1975. Yet, so far, there have been no systematic comparisons of the frequency and nature of the Islamist violence in Southeast Asia and the rest of the world. This study therefore contributes by exploring the empirical trajectories in the region and situating Southeast Asia to global developments, utilizing new and unique data on religiously defined armed conflicts 1975-2015. We find that whereas the number of people killed in Islamist violence has increased in the rest of the world, it has decreased in Southeast Asia. We argue that Southeast Asia has prevented outbreaks of jihadist civil wars, and contained and partially resolved ongoing Islamist conflicts before they have escalated, due to three interrelated factors: the lack of internationalization of Islamist conflicts in the region, the openness of political channels for voicing Islamist aspirations, and government repression. This article suggests insights from the region that can be valuable from a global perspective.

  • 10.
    Hoffman, Evan
    et al.
    The Canadian International Institute of Applied Negotiation (CIIAN).
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Pinning Down Peace: Towards a Multi-Dimensional, Clustered Measure of Mediation Success2012Report (Other academic)
  • 11.
    Höglund, Kristine
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Fallacies of the Peace Ownership Approach: Exploring Norwegian Mediation in Sri Lanka2011In: Liberal Peace in Question: Politics of State and Market Reform in Sri Lanka / [ed] Kristian Stokke, Jayadeva Uyangoda, New York: Anthem Press, 2011, p. 63-76Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 12.
    Höglund, Kristine
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Should I Stay or Should I Go?: Termination as a Tactic and Norwegian Mediation in Sri Lanka2011In: Negotiation and Conflict Management Research, ISSN 1750-4708, E-ISSN 1750-4716, Vol. 4, no 1, p. 12-32Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    What explains a mediator’s choice of tactic when faced with a situation of crisis? This article focuses on mediation in internal armed conflicts and on one particular mediation tactic: the use of the exit option as a means to pressure the parties to enter into negotiations and make concessions to end the war. We examine the conditions under which the exit option—here referred to as the termination tactic—is likely to be used. Utilizing a cost–benefit approach, we develop a theoretical framework for understanding when mediators will employ the termination tactic. The framework is applied to four crises in the Sri Lankan peace process (2000–2006), during which Norway acted as a mediator. The analysis indicates that the termination tactic is employed when mediators (a) expect few rewards from involvement in the process, (b) deem other tactics as being ineffective, and (c) perceive that the parties have incentives for mediation.

  • 13.
    Höglund, Kristine
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    "Sticking one's neck out": Reducing mistrust in Sri Lanka's peace negotiations2006In: Negotiation journal, ISSN 0748-4526, E-ISSN 1571-9979, Vol. 22, no 4, p. 367-387Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Lack of trust has been widely used as an explanation for the failure of peace negotiations. However, we know little about how mistrust can be reduced between belligerents involved in negotiating peace. Why are some confidence-building strategies more successful than others? For theory-building purposes, this article explores how a party can send conciliatory signals to the other party that increase trust by exposing itself to three different kinds of political risks. More specifically, it compares the variables that reduced mistrust - or failed to reduce mistrust - during two peace negotiations in Sri Lanka: in 1994-1995 and in 2002. Using a theoretical framework that combines social psychology and rational choice approaches, this article examines the communicative signaling process between the parties.

    In addition, by drawing out the implications from this argument, we offer some insight into why the peace process in Sri Lanka became politically stalemated in 2003. We also use our comparison of Sri Lanka's peace processes to develop general propositions about the dynamics that can reduce mistrust. The main proposition that remains to be tested empirically is whether obstacles to peace can be transformed into important catalysts for the reduction of mistrust.

  • 14.
    Johnstone, Naomi
    et al.
    University of Otago.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Believers and Belligerents: Exploring Faith-Based Mediation in Internal Armed Conflicts2013In: Politics, Religion & Ideology, ISSN 2156-7689, E-ISSN 2156-7697, Vol. 14, no 4, p. 556-577Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study explores faith-based mediation in armed conflict, that is, diplomatic initiatives taken by explicitly religious organisations in order to settle or manage armed conflicts through some process of dialogue with the warring parties. Whereas previous research on religious peacemaking in general, and on faith-based mediation in particular, have been dominated by case analysis, anecdotal evidence and conceptual work, this study presents the first global cross-country dataset on faith-based mediations in armed conflicts. In this descriptive analysis, we map the empirical landscape of faith-based mediation in armed conflicts around the world, during the time period 1989–2008. Utilising and developing a typology from Cynthia Sampson [‘Religion and Peacebuilding’ in I.W. Zartman and L.J. Rasmussen (eds) Peacemaking in International Conflict (Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace Press, 2002)], this study generates three major findings, (1) faith-based mediation primarily occurs in situations where religion is not part of the conflict itself; (2) the organisation of faith-based mediation are significantly different in the Christian and the Islamic contexts; and (3) there is decrease in frequency of faith-based mediation over the studied time period, which could indicate a trend of decreasing international peacemaking engagement from the faith-based communities. Our descriptive analysis opens up new avenues for future empirical work on the occurrence, dynamics and effects of faith-based mediation.

  • 15.
    Kanwal Sheikh, Mona
    et al.
    DIIS.
    Svensson, IsakUppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Religion, Conflict, and Global Society: A Festschrift celebrating Mark Juergensmeyer2021Collection (editor) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Mark Juergensmeyer is a world-renowned scholar, who has been a pioneer within the fields of global studies, conflict research and religious studies, and whose methods have inspired integrated and multidisciplinary approaches to understanding globalization, peace and conflict as well as religious violence.

    On the occasion of Mark Juergensmeyer’s retirement Mona Kanwal Sheikh (DIIS) and Isak Svensson (Uppsala University) have compiled an edited volume highlighting central debates and concepts within the fields of religious violence, conflict studies and global studies.

    Twenty-two leading scholars from around the world, and with a range of different diciplinary backgrounds, provide broadly accesible overviews of scholarly debates and institutional processes where Juergensmeyer has contributed major insights and made an important impact.

    The book is not only a celebration of Mark Juergensmeyer’s lifetime achievements, but also a warranted tool for students and scholars, who want an insight into major conceptual debates on topics such as secularism, cosmic warfare, worldviews, and the globalization of global studies.

  • 16.
    Karakus, Dogukan Cansin
    et al.
    Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Goettingen, Germany.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Between the Bombs: Exploring Partial Ceasefires in the Syrian Civil War, 2011–20172020In: Terrorism and Political Violence, ISSN 0954-6553, E-ISSN 1556-1836, Vol. 32, no 4, p. 681-700Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Previous research on ceasefires in armed conflicts has primarily focused on the aggregated country-level of analysis. By contrast, this article contributes by examining the local-level dynamics of local ceasefire arrangements. In particular, this study examines a novel set of 106 local-level ceasefire arrangements in the Syrian Civil War, reached between the years 2011 to 2017. Most (72 percent), but not all, of the ceasefire arrangements were respected during the stipulated time period. We argue that informal and domestic peacemaking should outperform formal and external approaches in managing conflicts with multiple rebel groups, ongoing violence, and different fronts such as in Syria. We find that the presence of insider mediators (“insider-partial”) as well as confidence-building measures between the belligerents are positively associated with successful ceasefire arrangements, whereas explanations emphasized by previous research—external third-party mediation as well as various indicators of quality of agreement—fail to explain outcomes of ceasefires. Yet, we also find some evidence indicative of a selection effect in that external mediators are associated with more difficult conflict situations. The study of local ceasefires in the Syrian Civil War can stimulate further examinations of the micro-dynamics of peacemaking in civil wars, including the causes and consequences of local ceasefires.

  • 17.
    Krause, Dino
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. Danish Inst Int Studies, Ostbanegade 117, DK-2100 Copenhagen, Denmark.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Larsson, Göran
    Univ Gothenburg, Dept Literature Hist Ideas & Relig, S-40530 Gothenburg, Sweden.
    Why Is There So Little Shia-Sunni Dialogue?: Understanding the Deficit of Intra-Muslim Dialogue and Interreligious Peacemaking2019In: Religions, E-ISSN 2077-1444, Vol. 10, no 10, article id 567Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Despite a growth in fatalities resulting from organized violence with Shia-Sunni dimensions over the last two decades, in this study, we show, using existing data-bases on interreligious dialogue and peacemaking, that only less than two percent of the interreligious peacemaking organizations in the world are specialized in dialogue between Shias and Sunnis. Why is there so little institutionalized Shia-Sunni dialogue occurring when the need for such dialogue is evident? This study identifies and discusses this lack of institutional initiatives designed to prevent violence, manage conflicts and facilitate processes of intra-Muslim de-sectarianization. We discuss what we see as the three seemingly most obvious explanations-(1) the dismissal of the relevance of a Shia-Sunni cleavage, (2) the inappropriateness of the interreligious dialogue concept in the Muslim context, and (3) the substitution of institutional interreligious dialogue by other channels. Although we suggest that the third is the most potent explanation to pursue, we do not aim to provide a comprehensive explanation for the Shia-Sunni religious dialogue deficit. Instead, our aspiration is mainly to present and substantiate a puzzle that has not been identified or discussed in previous research. This can set an agenda for a reinvigorated research endeavor into the contemporary challenges for interreligious peacemaking.

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  • 18.
    Kreutz, Joakim
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Bjarnegård, Elin
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Government.
    Eck, Kristine
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Guthrey, Holly L.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Melander, Erik
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Tønnesson, Stein
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    The East Asian Peace: will it last?2017In: Debating the East Asian Peace: What it is, How it came about, Will it last? / [ed] Elin Bjarnegård, Joakim Kreutz, Copenhagen: NIAS Press, 2017, p. 281-296Chapter in book (Refereed)
  • 19.
    Lundgren, Magnus
    et al.
    Department of Political Science, Stockholm University.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Leanings and Dealings: Exploring Bias and Trade Leverage in Civil War Mediation by International Organizations2014In: International Negotiation, ISSN 1382-340X, E-ISSN 1571-8069, Vol. 19, no 2, p. 315-342Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Two characteristics of mediators – bias and leverage – are discussed intensively in the research on international mediation. However, whereas bias and leverage have been examined in mediation by states, relatively little is known about their role in mediation by international organizations (ios). This study provides new ways of conceptualizing io bias and leverage and utilizes unique data to measure the impact of io bias and leverage on mediation outcomes. Exploring all cases of civil war mediation by ios in the period 1975–2004, we find that ios where member states provide support to both sides in a conflict outperform ios whose member states remain disinterested. ios with significant trade leverage also increase the likelihood of mediation success. The study demonstrates that ios rarely have a neutral relationship to civil war combatants, that mediation by ios is laden with member state interests, and that such interests shape outcomes.

  • 20.
    Lundgren, Magnus
    et al.
    Stockholm Univ, Dept Polit Sci, Univ Vagen 10F, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden..
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    The surprising decline of international mediation in armed conflicts2020In: Research & Politics, E-ISSN 2053-1680, Vol. 7, no 2, article id 2053168020917243Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We identify and investigate a fundamental puzzle in contemporary mediation of armed conflicts. Although the preparedness of international mediators has increased, the proportion of armed conflicts that receive mediation has not increased, but decreased. Using quantitative data on the occurrence of mediation between 1989 and 2013, our analysis suggests that this puzzling contradiction cannot be explained by conflicts being more fragmented, intractable or internationalized. Instead, we argue that the puzzling decline of mediation can be explained by a mismatch between supply and demand in the international mediation 'market'. Although there are more mediators available, the rise in the number of conflicts involving Islamist armed actors, coupled with increased reliance on terror-listing, especially since 2001, has placed a growing number of conflicts beyond the reach of international mediators. Our findings challenge the conventional belief that the post-Cold War era is characterized by high mediation rates and point to the need to develop the practice of mediation to maintain its relevance in the contemporary conflict landscape.

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  • 21.
    Lundgren, Magnus
    et al.
    University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden.
    Svensson, Isak
    Karakus, Dogukan Cansin
    European Centre for Minority Issues, Flensburg, Germany.
    Local Ceasefires and De-escalation: Evidence From the Syrian Civil War2023In: Journal of Conflict Resolution, ISSN 0022-0027, E-ISSN 1552-8766, Vol. 67, no 7-8, p. 1350-1375Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Local ceasefire agreements are prevalent in modern civil wars, but we know little about their impact. This study analyzes geo-referenced data on 145 local ceasefire agreements declared during the Syrian Civil War, 2011-2019, exploring their short- and long-term effects on the intensity of armed violence. Drawing on scholarship on gradual confidence-building processes, we theorize the conditions under which local ceasefire agreements may generate trust and reduce conflict intensity. Using interrupted time-series analysis and spatial panel regression, we examine factors relating to the design and strategic context of ceasefire agreements. We find that local ceasefire agreements can trigger both escalation and de-escalation in the short term. De-escalatory outcomes are more likely in the long-term, when ceasefire signatories share a history of previous interaction, and when ceasefires are implemented in a stepwise fashion. We also find evidence of spatial diffusion: local ceasefire agreements in one area reduce conflict intensity in neighboring areas.

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  • 22.
    Melander, Erik
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    A reversal of peace? The role of foreign involvement in armed conflict: a case study on East Asia2016In: SIPRI Yearbook 2016, Oxford University Press , 2016, p. 220-235Chapter in book (Other academic)
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  • 23.
    Mustasilta, Katariina
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. Finnish Inst Int Affairs FIIA, Helsinki, Finland.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Divided We Fall: Ethnic Cleavages, Movement Cohesion, and the Risk of Escalation to Civil War in Non-Violent Uprisings2023In: Civil Wars, ISSN 1369-8249, E-ISSN 1743-968X, Vol. 25, no 1, p. 103-136Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Why do some non-violent uprisings escalate into armed violence while others do not? We suggest that horizontal polarisation contributes to the escalation of non-violent campaigns. We examine the effect of ethnic cleavages between the campaign and its opponent and movement cohesion as explanatory factors for escalation into civil war and non-state violence. Statistical analysis of all major non-violent campaigns (1970-2014) shows that non-violent conflicts with ethnic cleavages have a higher risk of escalating into armed violence in particular, when the conflict takes place over governmental aims. The results also indicate that movement cohesion alleviates the risk of armed escalation.

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  • 24.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Mapping armed conflicts over Islamist claims: exploring regional variations2017In: SIPRI Yearbook 2017: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security, London: Oxford University Press, 2017, p. 58-65Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 25.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Pushing the doors open: Nonviolent action and inclusion in peace negotiations2023In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 60, no 1, p. 58-72Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Whereas previous research shows that peace agreements which include a broad segment of society are more likely to lead to sustainable peace, little effort has gone into explaining inclusion itself. We address this gap in the literature by providing the first large-N study to examine the causes of inclusive peace negotiations across civil wars. We argue that civil society actors can gain leverage through mobilization of civilian protest, or build trust through dialogue efforts, thereby enhancing the chances of inclusion of non-warring actors at the negotiation table. The argument is examined by analysing unique and new monthly data on peacemaking efforts in all intrastate armed conflicts in Africa and the Americas, 1989–2018, including measures beyond mere nominal participation, such as whether civil society actors or political parties had substantive roles as either mediators or full participants at the peace talks. Our findings show that protests by civil society actors increase the likelihood that non-warring actors will have a seat at the negotiation table, whereas we find no such effect concerning dialogue efforts. The article contributes by providing new insights into how nonviolent action can shape peace processes by opening the doors to negotiations and is thus part of an emerging research agenda that seeks to bring together the fields of civil resistance and inclusive peace processes.

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  • 26.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Resisting Resolution: Islamist Claims and Negotiations in Intrastate Armed Conflicts2020In: International Negotiation, ISSN 1382-340X, E-ISSN 1571-8069, Vol. 25, no 3, p. 389-412Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The prevalence of Islamist armed conflicts is an important problem of our time. One pivotal question that remains unexplored is whether conflicts fought over Islamist claims are more or less likely to be negotiated, and if so, why? This paper provides the first large-N study exploring the relationship between Islamist claims and negotiations in all intrastate armed conflicts for the time period 1975–2011. We argue that the transnational dimension can serve to make some Islamist conflicts resistant to peaceful resolution attempts. Our findings show that while conflicts over Islamist claims generally are no more likely to see negotiations, there is significant variation within this category. When we disaggregate Islamist conflicts, we find that transnational Islamist conflicts are less likely to experience negotiations, whereas conflicts fought over separatist or revolutionary Islamist claims are no more likely to see negotiations.

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  • 27.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    The Intractability of Islamist Insurgencies: Islamist Rebels and the Recurrence of Civil War2021In: International Studies Quarterly, ISSN 0020-8833, E-ISSN 1468-2478, Vol. 65, no 3, p. 620-632Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    There is a large research field focusing on the recurrence of civil wars, yet this literature has omitted to seriously consider religious dimensions and ideational features of armed conflicts. To address this gap, we provide the first global study exploring whether, and why, Islamist civil wars—armed conflicts fought over self-proclaimed Islamist aspirations—are more or less likely to recur compared to other conflicts. We argue that civil wars fought over Islamist claims are more likely to relapse because the ideational features of these conflicts increase the uncertainty regarding the capabilities of the warring actors in terms of the extent and nature of transnational support that may be forthcoming, for rebels as well as the government. In line with our argument, we find that Islamist civil wars are significantly less likely to be terminated and more likely to recur once ended. Thus, our results demonstrate that Islamist civil wars represent a particular challenge with regard to the goal of achieving durable peace.

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  • 28.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    What We Know - and Don't Know - about Religious Civil Wars2018Other (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 29.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Women, Peace and Security: Women's Organizations in Peace-Making2020Other (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 30.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Magalhães Teixeira, Barbara
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Martínez Lorenzo, Luís
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Ruus, Anton
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    In the Streets and at the Table: Civil Society Coordination during Peace Negotiations2020In: International Negotiation, ISSN 1382-340X, E-ISSN 1571-8069, Vol. 25, no 2, p. 225-251Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    When bringing armed conflicts to a peaceful end, the inclusion of civil society in peacemaking is a vital task. However, whereas previous research on civil society inclusion has made significant advancements, surprisingly little attention has been paid to analyzing how civil resistance and mass action may interact with more elite-driven approaches during peace processes. This study addresses this research gap by examining the interplay between elite and mass-based civil society approaches in three different peace processes in civil wars in Africa in the post-Cold War period: Liberia, the Central African Republic (CAR), and Burundi. We advance the literature by developing a framework that focuses on coordination of these different efforts and we explore this interplay empirically. With this study, we aim to broaden the research agenda, allowing for future synergies at the research frontier of mass action and the inclusion of civil society in peace processes.

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  • 31.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Sandyarani, Utami
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Civil society protests and inclusive peace talks2023Other (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
    Abstract [en]

    What are the drivers of inclusion in peace negotiations? How can meaningful participation in peace processes be ensured? This research brief shows that civil society engagement, in the form of non-violent protests, demonstrations, or other forms of street action can help shape the conditions for inclusive peace talks in civil wars. We also present trends and patterns based on data on civil society engagement across civil wars in Africa, the Americas, and the Middle East. We propose three recommendations directed at international peacebuilding actors who strive to promote inclusive peace processes.

    This brief is part of a research brief series generated by a joint initiative by the Folke Bernadotte Academy (FBA) and the African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD). The aim of the series is to contribute to policy development by bringing cutting-edge research on key issues within mediation to the attention of policy makers and practitioners. The topics to be explored in the series were selected during joint discussions within the FBA initiative “Improving Mediation Effectiveness” throughout 2021-2023. The Initiative brought together policymakers, practitioners, and researchers within the mediation field to discuss challenges and opportunities for greater effectiveness in mediation. The editorial committee has consisted of Dr. Niklas Hultin, Agnes Cronholm, Dr. Johanna Malm and Maja Jakobsson from FBA, and Andrea Prah from ACCORD. We would like to thank the members of the Mediation Support Network for comments. The views and opinions expressed in the brief series are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the collaborating partners.

  • 32.
    O'Dochartaigh, Niall
    et al.
    School of Political Science and Sociology, National University of Ireland.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    The Exit Option: Mediation and the Termination of Negotiations in the Northern Ireland Conflict2013In: International Journal of Conflict Management, ISSN 1044-4068, E-ISSN 1758-8545, Vol. 24, no 1, p. 40-55Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Purpose – The purpose of this study is to examine the mediation exit option, which is one of the most important tactics available to any third party mediator.

    Design/methodology/approach – The paper analyzes a crucial intermediary channel between the Irish Republican Army (hereafter IRA) and the British Government utilizing unique material from the private papers of the intermediary, Brendan Duddy, including diaries that cover periods of intensive communication, extensive interviews with the intermediary and with participants in this communication on both the British Government and Irish Republican sides as well as recently released official papers from the UK National Archives relating to this communication.

    Findings – The study reveals how the intermediary channel was used in order to get information, how the third party and the primary parties traded in asymmetries of information, and how the intermediary utilized the information advantage to increase the credibility of his threats of termination.

    Research limitations/implications – The study outlines an avenue for further research on the termination dynamics of mediation.

    Practical implications – Understanding the conditions for successfully using the exit-option is vital for policy-makers, in particular for peace diplomacy efforts in other contexts than the Northern Ireland one.

    Originality/value – The paper challenges previous explanations for why threats by mediators to call off further mediation attempts are successful and argues that a mediator can use the parties' informational dependency on him in order to increase his leverage and push the parties towards settlement.

  • 33.
    Sutton, Jonathan
    et al.
    University of Otago.
    Butcher, Charles
    University of Otago.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Explaining Political Jujitsu: Communications Infrastructure and the Outcomes of Regime Violence against Unarmed Protests2014In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 51, no 5, p. 559-573Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The use of violent coercion to repress unarmed protests, such as that seen during the Arab Spring, sometimes backfires on the government – an outcome called ‘political jiu-jitsu’. Examining unique global data covering extreme violence used by governments against unarmed protests from 1989 to 2011 (drawn from UCDP) and the Nonviolent and Violent Campaigns and Outcomes (NAVCO) data, this study aims to explain the conditions under which this outcome occurs. This study contributes to both the nonviolent action and one-sided violence literatures by further disaggregating this effect into both domestic and international outcomes, a distinction that has not previously been made in empirical studies. We find evidence that a pre-existing campaign infrastructure increases the likelihood of increased domestic mobilization and security defections after violent repression, but is unrelated to international backlash. Within ongoing NAVCO campaigns we find that parallel media institutions increase the likelihood of increased domestic mobilization and international repercussions after repression, and that this effect holds true for both traditional media and ‘new’ (i.e. internet-based) media. One of the novel contributions of this study is that we identify an important selection effect in the NAVCO data and the critical role of organizational infrastructure, especially communications infrastructure, in generating preference changes that create the conditions where killing unarmed civilians becomes costly for repressive governments. We conclude with a discussion of the potential implications of this study and avenues for future research.

  • 34.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Biased mediation2019In: Research Handbook on Mediating International Crises / [ed] Jonathan Wilkenfeld, Kyle Beardsley, and David Quinn, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing, 2019Chapter in book (Refereed)
  • 35.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Civil Resistance and Conflict Transformation: Transitions from armed to nonviolent struggle2016In: Cooperation and Conflict, ISSN 0010-8367, E-ISSN 1460-3691, Vol. 51, no 4, p. 560-562Article, book review (Other academic)
  • 36.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Civil war and religion: an overview2019In: The Oxford Encyclopedia of Politics and Religion / [ed] Paul A. Djupe, Mark J. Rozell & Ted G. Jelen, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2019Chapter in book (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The relationship between civil war and religion is a complex one. Civil wars are influenced in many different ways by religiously based factors. Different religiously based factors influence the onset, dynamics, and termination of civil wars. Religious factors have been examined both as causes of war and their dynamics and as factors behind how violence is prevented, conflict is managed, and peace is built. Whereas research on peace and conflict has often tended to neglect religiously focused explanations in favor of explanations based on strategic, economic, or other factors, research on religion and conflict has seen a resurgence in recent years. Research can be organized based on three different levels of analysis: (a) explanations relating to the religious group level, (b) explanations relating to the level of interrelationships between different religious groups, and (c) explanations relating to the level of the group’s relationship to the state. On the group level, religious beliefs, religious practices, religious constituency, and religious institutions play a role. On the intergroup level, two main debates center around the “clash of civilization” and religious demography. On the state-religion level, religious grievances and state favoritism can be seen as explanations for civil wars. As religiously defined conflicts are becoming more common, understanding more about the conditions under which religious factors influence civil wars’ onset, dynamics, and termination is vital.

  • 37.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Conceptualizing the Religious Dimensions of Armed Conflicts: A Response to "Shrouded: Islam, War, and Holy War in Southeast Asia"2016In: Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion, ISSN 0021-8294, E-ISSN 1468-5906, Vol. 55, no 1, p. 185-189Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Here I react to an article published in Volume 53 of the Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion by Ian Barter and Zatkin-Osburn. My principal disagreement with Barter and Zatkin-Osburn concerns their operational and methodological critiques of my work. However, the exchange also speaks to larger questions of how to conceptualize and measure religious dimensions of armed conflicts. It also highlights the importance of methodological pluralism in the study of religion and conflict.

  • 38.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Conflict Mediation, in  2015In: Elsevier’s International Encyclopedia of the Social and Behavioral Sciences (IESBS) / [ed] James D. Wright, Elsevier, 2015Chapter in book (Refereed)
  • 39.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Conflict resolution and religious dimensions of armed conflicts2012In: The Ashgate Research Companion to Religion and Conflict Resolution / [ed] Lee Marsden, Farnham: Ashgate, 2012, p. 119-136Chapter in book (Refereed)
  • 40.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Conflict Resolution in Civil Wars2014In: Routledge Handbook of Civil Wars, LONDON: Routledge, 2014, p. 363-375Chapter in book (Refereed)
  • 41.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Crowded with Conciliators: Exploring Multiparty Mediation in Civil Wars2011In: Peace and Policy, Vol. 16, p. 63-71Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 42.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Democracies, Disengagement and Deals: Exploring the Effect of Different Types of Mediators in Internal Armed Conflicts2008In: Resources, Governance and Civil Conflict, Routledge , 2008Chapter in book (Refereed)
  • 43.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Divine Disputes?: Divine Disputes? Exploring the Religious Dimensions of Armed Conflicts2008Report (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 44.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Do Mediators Go Where They Are Needed the Most? Mediation Selection in Civil Wars: paper presented at the 2nd National Conference on Peace Research, Göteborg, September 7-8, 20062006Conference paper (Other (popular scientific, debate etc.))
  • 45.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    East Asian Peacemaking: Exploring the patterns of conflict management and conflict settlement in East Asia2011In: Asian Perspective, ISSN 0258-9184, E-ISSN 2288-2871, Vol. 35, no 2, p. 163-185Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    There is an emerging academic debate on what has been called the “East Asian Peace”—the relative peacefulness of the East Asian region since 1979. In this study I develop a critical argument that aspires to clarify what the “peace” in East Asia is. Distinguishing conflict management from conflict settlement I argue that the East Asian Peace has played out quite differently in different types of conflicts. What has changed, I contend, is not the frequency of armed conflicts but rather how the armed conflict has been managed. Military interventions have substantially decreased, whereas internal armed conflicts have actually slightly increased since 1979. Peace agreements have become less common, while conflict termination through cease-fires and low activity has increased. Internal armed conflicts with low-level foreign involvement remain an acute security problem in East Asia. This article describes the empirical trends and discusses the implications for further research.

  • 46.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    East Asian Peacemaking? Some Empirical Observations on Patterns of Conflict Management and Termination Stipulations in Civil Wars2008Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 47.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Ending Holy Wars: Religion and Conflict Resolution in Civil Wars2012Book (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Ending Holy Wars: Religion and Conflict Resolution in Internal Armed Conflicts explores how religious dimensions affect the possibilities for conflict resolution in civil war. This is the first book that systematically tries to map out the religious dimensions of internal armed conflicts and explain the conditions under which religious dimensions impede peaceful settlement. It draws upon empirical work on global data, based on the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), and complements this quantitative data with several smaller case studies (Sri Lanka, Philippines and Indonesia).

    The book shows how religious identities and incompatibilities influence the likelihood of agreements and the mechanisms through which parties and third-party mediators have been able to overcome religious obstacles to negotiated settlements.  These findings pave the way for a discussion on how conflict theory can better incorporate religious dimensions, as well as how policy can be designed to manage religious dimensions in armed conflicts.

  • 48.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Etniskt delat Syrien ingen väg till fred2013In: Svenska Dagbladet, ISSN 1101-2412, no 2013-12-05, p. 40-40Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 49.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Fredsavtal och fredsprocesser – 20 år efter Dayton2015In: Internationella Studier, ISSN 0020-952XArticle in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 50.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    "Heliga" krig kan nå fredslösning, Uppsala Nya Tidning, 2012-12-282012In: AB Upsala Nya Tidning, ISSN 1104-0173, no 2012-12-28Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
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