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  • 1.
    Aleklett, Kjell
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems. Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Jakobsson, Kristofer
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Lardelli, Michael
    School of Molecular and Biomedical Science, University of Adelaide, Australia.
    Snowden, Simon
    Management School, University of Liverpool, United Kingdom.
    Söderbergh, Bengt
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    The Peak of the Oil Age: Analyzing the world oil production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 20082010In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 38, no 3, p. 1398-1414Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The assessment of future global oil production presented in the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2008 (WEO 2008) is divided in to 6 fractions; four relate to crude oil, one to non-conventional oil, and the final fraction is natural-gas-liquids (NGL). Using the production parameter, depletion-rate-of-recoverable- resources, we have analyzed the four crude oil fractions and found that the 75 Mb/d of crude oil production forecast for year 2030 appears significantly overstated, and is more likely to be in the region of 55 Mb/d. Moreover, an alysis of the other fractions strongly suggests lower than expected production levels. In total, our analysis points to a world oil supply in 2030 of 75Mb/d, some 26 Mb/d lower than the IEA predicts. The connection between economic growth and energy use is fundamental in the IEA’s present modeling approach. Since our forecast sees little chance of a significant increase in global oil production, our findings suggest that the ‘‘policy makers, investors and end users’’ to whom WEO 2008 is addressed should rethink their future plans for economic growth. The fact that global oil production has very probably passed its maximum implies that we have reached the Peak of the Oil Age.

  • 2.
    Chen, Yingchao
    et al.
    China Univ Petr, Sch Business Adm, Beijing, Peoples R China..
    Feng, Lianyong
    China Univ Petr, Sch Business Adm, Beijing, Peoples R China..
    Wang, Jianliang
    China Univ Petr, Sch Business Adm, Beijing, Peoples R China..
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Emergy-based energy return on investment method for evaluating energy exploitation2017In: Energy, ISSN 0360-5442, E-ISSN 1873-6785, Vol. 128, p. 540-549Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    To consider the environmental impacts of energy resource exploitation and better estimate the energy return of investment (EROI), this paper establishes a new emergy-based method (EmEROI) that can capture the essence of energy resource exploitation. The EmEROI method treats environmental impacts and labor as particular forms of energy, and all forms of energy can be quantified by solar transformity, which is expressed in emjoules as a common unit. The Daqing oilfield is used as an example, and the corresponding EmEROI value is calculated via the proposed method. The results are then compared with standard EROI estimates. Our EmEROI result is much lower than the standard EROI result and presents a more pronounced declining trend. Our results also indicated that the EmEROI estimates conform well to actual conditions and are not as affected by industrial energy intensity levels as the standard EROI. Thus, EmEROI has the potential for use as an integral aspect of energy resource exploitation project evaluations. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  • 3.
    Davidsson, Simon
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Grandell, Leena
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Wachtmeister, Henrik
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Growth curves and sustained commissioning modelling of renewable energy: Investigating resource constraints for wind energy2014In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 73, p. 767-776Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Abstract Several recent studies have proposed fast transitions to energy systems based on renewable energy technology. Many of them dismiss potential physical constraints and issues with natural resource supply, and do not consider the growth rates of the individual technologies needed or how the energy systems are to be sustained over longer time frames. A case study is presented modelling potential growth rates of the wind energy required to reach installed capacities proposed in other studies, taking into account the expected service life of wind turbines. A sustained commissioning model is proposed as a theoretical foundation for analysing reasonable growth patterns for technologies that can be sustained in the future. The annual installation and related resource requirements to reach proposed wind capacity are quantified and it is concluded that these factors should be considered when assessing the feasibility, and even the sustainability, of fast energy transitions. Even a sustained commissioning scenario would require significant resource flows, for the transition as well as for sustaining the system, indefinitely. Recent studies that claim there are no potential natural resource barriers or other physical constraints to fast transitions to renewable energy appear inadequate in ruling out these concerns.

  • 4.
    Davidsson, Simon
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Material requirements and availability for multi-terawatt deployment of photovoltaicsArticle in journal (Other academic)
  • 5.
    Davidsson, Simon
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Material requirements and availability for multi-terawatt deployment of photovoltaics2017In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 108, p. 574-582Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study investigates growth rates and material flows required to reach and sustain multi-terawatt installed capacity of photovoltaics (PV). The dynamics of material flows over time are captured, taking account for the life expectancy of PV technology. Requirements of solar grade silicon and silver for crystalline silicon (c-Si) technology, as well as indium, gallium, selenium, tellurium, and cadmium for currently commercial thin film (TF) technology are explored, accounting for different technology choices and potential improvements in material intensities. Future availability of these materials from primary resources, as well as secondary resources from end-of-life recycling, is also analyzed. Rapid deployment of c-Si technologies would require a major expansion of solar grade silicon production, and significant quantities of silver. Availability of materials such as indium and tellurium could become problematic for major implementation of TF technology, unless production can be scaled up significantly, or material intensities radically decreased. Availability of secondary resources from end-of-life recycling have little impact on material availability during the growth phase, but could be important for sustaining a low-carbon energy system over longer time perspectives. Material availability could cause problems for rapid PV growth, but does not necessarily limit total PV deployment, especially if material intensities are decreased.

  • 6.
    Davidsson, Simon
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems.
    Wall, Göran
    Gotland University, Department of Culture, Energy and Environment.
    A review of life cycle assessments on wind energy systems2012In: The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, ISSN 0948-3349, E-ISSN 1614-7502, Vol. 17, no 6, p. 729-742Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Purpose

    Several life cycle assessments (LCA) of wind energy published in recent years are reviewed to identify methodological differences and underlying assumptions.

    Methods

    A full comparative analysis of 12 studies were undertaken (10 peer-reviewed papers, 1 conference paper, 1 industry report) regarding six fundamental factors (methods used, energy use accounting, quantification of energy production, energy performance and primary energy,  natural resources, and recycling). Each factor is discussed in detail to highlight strengths and shortcomings of various approaches.

    Results

    Several potential issues are found concerning the way LCA methods are used for assessing energy performance and environmental impact of wind energy, as well as dealing with natural resource use and depletion. The potential to evaluate natural resource use and depletion impacts from wind energy appears to be poorly exploited or elaborated on in the reviewed studies. Estimations of energy performance and environmental impacts are critically analyzed and found to differ significantly.

    Conclusions and recommendations

    A continued discussion and development of LCA methodology for wind energy and other energy resources are encouraged. Efforts should be made to standardize methods and calculations. Inconsistent use of terminology and concepts among the analyzed studies are found and should be remedied. Different methods are generally used and the results are presented in diverse ways, making it hard to compare studies with each other, but also with other renewable energy sources.

  • 7. Dong, Xiucheng
    et al.
    Guo, Jie
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Pi, Guanglin
    Sustainability Assessment of the Natural Gas Industry in China Using Principal Component Analysis2015In: Sustainability, ISSN 2071-1050, E-ISSN 2071-1050, Vol. 7, no 5, p. 6102-6118Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Under pressure toward carbon emission reduction and air protection, China has accelerated energy restructuring by greatly improving the supply and consumption of natural gas in recent years. However, several issues with the sustainable development of the natural gas industry in China still need in-depth discussion. Therefore, based on the fundamental ideas of sustainable development, industrial development theories and features of the natural gas industry, a sustainable development theory is proposed in this thesis. The theory consists of five parts: resource, market, enterprise, technology and policy. The five parts, which unite for mutual connection and promotion, push the gas industry's development forward together. Furthermore, based on the theoretical structure, the Natural Gas Industry Sustainability Index in China is established and evaluated via the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method. Finally, a conclusion is reached: that the sustainability of the natural gas industry in China kept rising from 2008 to 2013, mainly benefiting from increasing supply and demand, the enhancement of enterprise profits, technological innovation, policy support and the optimization and reformation of the gas market.

  • 8.
    Fantazzini, Dean
    et al.
    Moscow School of Economics.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Angelantoni, André
    Post Peak Living.
    Global oil risks in the early 21st Century2011In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 39, no 12, p. 7865-7873Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Deepwater Horizon incident demonstrated that most of the oil left is deep offshore or in other difficult to reach locations. Moreover, obtaining the oil remaining in currently producing reservoirs requires additional equipment and technology that comes at a higher price in both capital and energy. In this regard, the physical limitations on producing ever-increasing quantities of oil are highlighted as well as the possibility of the peak of production occurring this decade. The economics of oil supply and demand are also briefly discussed showing why the available supply is basically fixed in the short to medium term. Also, an alarm bell for economic recessions is shown to be when energy takes a disproportionate amount of total consumer expenditures. In this context, risk mitigation practices in government and business are called for. As for the former, early education of the citizenry of the risk of economic contraction is a prudent policy to minimize potential future social discord. As for the latter, all business operations should be examined with the aim of building in resilience and preparing for a scenario in which capital and energy are much more expensive than in the business-as-usual one.

  • 9.
    Grandell, Leena
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Hall, Charles
    State University of New York.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Energy Return on Investment for Norwegian Oil and Gas from 1991 to 20082011In: Sustainability, ISSN 2071-1050, E-ISSN 2071-1050, Vol. 3, no 11, p. 2050-2070Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Norwegian oil and gas fields are relatively new and of high quality, which has led, during recent decades, to very high profitability both financially and in terms of energy production. One useful measure for profitability is Energy Return on Investment, EROI. Our analysis shows that EROI for Norwegian petroleum production ranged from 44:1 in the early 1990s to a maximum of 59:1 in 1996, to about 40:1 in the latter half of the last decade. To compare globally, only very few, if any, resources show such favorable EROI values as those found in the Norwegian oil and gas sector. However, the declining trend in recent years is most likely due to ageing of the fields whereas varying drilling intensity might have a smaller impact on the net energy gain of the fields. We expect the EROI of Norwegian oil and gas production to deteriorate further as the fields become older. More energy-intensive production techniques will gain in importance.

  • 10.
    Han, Shangfeng
    et al.
    China Univ Petr, Sch Business Adm, Beijing .
    Zhang, Baosheng
    China Univ Petr, Sch Business Adm, Beijing .
    Sun, Xiaoyang
    China Univ Petr, Sch Business Adm, Beijing .
    Han, Song
    China Univ Petr, Sch Business Adm, Beijing .
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    China's Energy Transition in the Power and Transport Sectors from a Substitution Perspective2017In: Energies, ISSN 1996-1073, E-ISSN 1996-1073, Vol. 10, no 5, article id 600Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Facing heavy air pollution, China needs to transition to a clean and sustainable energy system, especially in the power and transport sectors, which contribute the highest greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The core of an energy transition is energy substitution and energy technology improvement. In this paper, we forecast the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for power generation in 2030 in China. Cost-emission effectiveness of the substitution between new energy vehicles and conventional vehicles is also calculated in this study. The results indicate that solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind power will be cost comparative in the future. New energy vehicles are more expensive than conventional vehicles due to their higher manufacturer suggested retail price (MSRP). The cost-emission effectiveness of the substitution between new energy vehicles and conventional vehicles would be $96.7/ton or $114.8/ton. Gasoline prices, taxes, and vehicle insurance will be good directions for policy implementation after the ending of subsidies.

  • 11.
    Håkansson, Ane
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Applied Nuclear Physics.
    Davour, Anna
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Applied Nuclear Physics.
    Grape, Sophie
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Applied Nuclear Physics.
    Hellesen, Carl
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Applied Nuclear Physics.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Lantz, Mattias
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Applied Nuclear Physics.
    Ottosson, Jan
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economic History.
    Pomp, Stephan
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Applied Nuclear Physics.
    Qvist, Staffan
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Applied Nuclear Physics.
    Svensk elförsörjning i framtiden – en fråga med globala dimensioner: En tvärvetenskaplig rapport från Uppsala universitet2014Report (Other academic)
  • 12.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Coal and Oil: The Dark Monarchs of Global Energy: Understanding Supply and Extraction Patterns and their Importance for Future Production2010Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The formation of modern society has been dominated by coal and oil, and together these two fossil fuels account for nearly two thirds of all primary energy used by mankind.  This makes future production a key question for future social development and this thesis attempts to answer whether it is possible to rely on an assumption of ever increasing production of coal and oil. Both coal and oil are finite resources, created over long time scales by geological processes. It is thus impossible to extract more fossil fuels than geologically available. In other words, there are limits to growth imposed by nature.

    The concept of depletion and exhaustion of recoverable resources is a fundamental question for the future extraction of coal and oil. Historical experience shows that peaking is a well established phenomenon in production of various natural resources. Coal and oil are no exceptions, and historical data shows that easily exploitable resources are exhausted while more challenging deposits are left for the future.

    For oil, depletion can also be tied directly to the physical laws governing fluid flows in reservoirs. Understanding and predicting behaviour of individual fields, in particularly giant fields, are essential for understanding future production. Based on comprehensive databases with reserve and production data for hundreds of oilfields, typical patterns were found. Alternatively, depletion can manifest itself indirectly through various mechanisms. This has been studied for coal.

    Over 60% of the global crude oil production is derived from only around 330 giant oilfields, where many of them are becoming increasingly mature. The annual decline in existing oil production has been determined to be around 6% and it is unrealistic that this will be offset by new field developments, additional discoveries or unconventional oil. This implies that the peak of the oil age is here.

    For coal a similar picture emerges, where 90% of the global coal production originates from only 6 countries. Some of them, such as the USA show signs of increasing maturity and exhaustion of the recoverable amounts. However, there is a greater uncertainty about the recoverable reserves and coal production may yield a global maximum somewhere between 2030 and 2060.

    This analysis shows that the global production peaks of both oil and coal can be expected comparatively soon. This has significant consequences for the global energy supply and society, economy and environment. The results of this thesis indicate that these challenges should not be taken lightly.

    List of papers
    1. A decline rate study of Norwegian oil production
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>A decline rate study of Norwegian oil production
    2008 (English)In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 36, no 11, p. 4262-4271Article in journal (Refereed) Published
    Abstract [en]

    Norway has been a very important oil exporter for the world and an important supplier for Europe. Oil was first discovered in the North Sea in late 1960s and the rapid expansion of Norwegian oil production lead to the low oil prices in the beginning of the 1990s. In 2001 Norway reached its peak production and began to decline.

    The Norwegian oil production can be broken up into four subclasses; giant oil fields, smaller oil fields, natural gas liquids and condensate. The production of each subclass was analyzed to find typical behaviour and decline rates. The typical decline rates of giant oil fields were found to be -13% annually. The other subclasses decline equally fast or even faster, especially condensate with typical decline rates of -40% annually. The conclusion from the forecast is that Norway will have dramatically reduced export volume of oil by 2030.

    Keywords
    Future Norwegian oil production, peak oil, decline rate, field-by-field analysis, oil production policy
    National Category
    Physical Sciences Other Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
    Research subject
    Physics with specialization in Global Energy Resources
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-100952 (URN)10.1016/j.enpol.2008.07.039 (DOI)000261020100028 ()
    Available from: 2009-04-14 Created: 2009-04-14 Last updated: 2017-12-13Bibliographically approved
    2. The evolution of giant oil field production behaviour
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>The evolution of giant oil field production behaviour
    2009 (English)In: Natural Resources Research, ISSN 1520-7439, E-ISSN 1573-8981, Vol. 18, no 1, p. 39-56Article in journal (Refereed) Published
    Abstract [en]

    The giant oil fields of the world are only a small fraction of the total number of fields, but their importance is huge. Over 50% of the world oil production came from giants by 2005 and more than haft of the worlds ultimate reserves are found in giants. Based on this it is reasonable to assume that the future development of the giant oil fields will have a significant impact on the world oil supply.

    In order to better understand the giant fields and their future behaviour one must first understand their history. This study has used a comprehensive database on giant oil fields in order to determine their typical parameters, such as the average decline rate and life-times of giants. The evolution of giant oil field behaviour has been investigated to better understand future behaviour. One conclusion is that new technology and production methods have generally lead to high depletion rate and rapid decline. The historical trend points towards high decline rates of fields currently on plateau production.

    The peak production generally occurs before half the ultimate reserves have been produced in giant oil fields. A strong correlation between depletion-at-peak and average decline rate is also found, verifying that high depletion rate leads to rapid decline. Our result also implies that depletion analysis can be used to rule out unrealistic production expectations from a known reserve, or to connect an estimated production level to a needed reserve base.

    Keywords
    Giant oil fields, field behaviour, peak oil, depletion
    National Category
    Physical Sciences Other Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
    Research subject
    Physics with specialization in Global Energy Resources
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-100954 (URN)10.1007/s11053-009-9087-z (DOI)
    Available from: 2009-04-14 Created: 2009-04-14 Last updated: 2017-12-13Bibliographically approved
    3. Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production
    2009 (English)In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 37, no 6, p. 2262-2272Article in journal (Refereed) Published
    Abstract [en]

    The most important contributors to the world's total oil production are the giant oil fields. Using a comprehensive database of giant oil field production, the average decline rates of the world's giant oil fields are estimated. Separating subclasses was necessary, since there are large differences between land and offshore fields, as well as between non-OPEC and OPEC fields. The evolution of decline rates over past decades includes the impact of new technologies and production techniques and clearly shows that the average decline rate for individual giant fields is increasing with time. These factors have significant implications for the future, since the most important world oil production base - giant fields - will decline more rapidly in the future, according to our findings. Our conclusion is that the world faces an increasing oil supply challenge, as the decline in existing production is not only high now but will be increasing in the future.

    Keywords
    Giant oil fields, decline rates, peak oil, future oil production
    National Category
    Physical Sciences Other Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
    Research subject
    Physics with specialization in Global Energy Resources
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-106701 (URN)10.1016/j.enpol.2009.02.020 (DOI)000266233300030 ()
    Available from: 2009-06-27 Created: 2009-06-27 Last updated: 2017-12-13Bibliographically approved
    4. How reasonable are oil production scenarios from public agencies?
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>How reasonable are oil production scenarios from public agencies?
    2009 (English)In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 37, no 11, p. 4809-4818Article in journal (Refereed) Published
    Abstract [en]

    According to the long term scenarios of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), conventional oil production is expected to grow until at least 2030. EIA has published results from a resource constrained production model which ostensibly supports such a scenario. The model is here described and analyzed in detail. However, it is shown that the model, although sound in principle, has been misapplied due to a confusion of resource categories. A correction of this methodological error reveals that EIA’s scenario requires rather extreme and implausible assumptions regarding future global decline rates. This result puts into question the basis for the conclusion that global "peak oil" would not occur before 2030.

    Keywords
    Peak oil, Depletion rate, R/P ratio
    National Category
    Physical Sciences Other Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
    Research subject
    Physics with specialization in Global Energy Resources
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-109736 (URN)10.1016/j.enpol.2009.06.042 (DOI)000271824600063 ()
    Available from: 2009-10-23 Created: 2009-10-23 Last updated: 2017-12-12Bibliographically approved
    5. Future Danish oil and gas export
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>Future Danish oil and gas export
    2009 (English)In: Energy, ISSN 0360-5442, E-ISSN 1873-6785, Vol. 34, no 11, p. 1826-1834Article in journal (Refereed) Published
    Abstract [en]

    Denmark possesses only a small share of the exploitation rights to North Sea oil and is a minor producer when compared to Norway and the UK. However, Denmark is still an oil exporter and a very important supplier of oil for certain countries, in particular Sweden.

    A field-by-field analysis of the Danish oil and gas fields, combined with estimated production contribution from new field developments, enhanced oil recovery and undiscovered fields, provides a future production outlook. The conclusion from this analysis is that by 2030 Denmark will no longer be an oil or gas exporter at all. Our results are also in agreement with the Danish Energy Authority’s own forecast, and may be seen as an independent confirmation of their general statements.

    Decreasing Danish oil production, coupled with a rapid decline in Norway’s oil output, will force Sweden to import oil from more distant markets in the future, dramatically reducing Swedish energy security. If no new gas suppliers are introduced to the Swedish grid, then Swedish gas consumption is clearly predestined to crumble alongside declining Danish production. Future hydrocarbon production from Denmark displays a clear link to Sweden’s future energy security.

    Keywords
    Future Danish oil and gas production, Field-by-field analysis, Swedish energy security
    National Category
    Physical Sciences Environmental Analysis and Construction Information Technology Other Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
    Research subject
    Physics with specialization in Global Energy Resources
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-109738 (URN)10.1016/j.energy.2009.07.028 (DOI)000272008200009 ()
    Available from: 2009-10-23 Created: 2009-10-23 Last updated: 2017-12-12Bibliographically approved
    6. The Peak of the Oil Age: Analyzing the world oil production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 2008
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>The Peak of the Oil Age: Analyzing the world oil production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 2008
    Show others...
    2010 (English)In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 38, no 3, p. 1398-1414Article in journal (Refereed) Published
    Abstract [en]

    The assessment of future global oil production presented in the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2008 (WEO 2008) is divided in to 6 fractions; four relate to crude oil, one to non-conventional oil, and the final fraction is natural-gas-liquids (NGL). Using the production parameter, depletion-rate-of-recoverable- resources, we have analyzed the four crude oil fractions and found that the 75 Mb/d of crude oil production forecast for year 2030 appears significantly overstated, and is more likely to be in the region of 55 Mb/d. Moreover, an alysis of the other fractions strongly suggests lower than expected production levels. In total, our analysis points to a world oil supply in 2030 of 75Mb/d, some 26 Mb/d lower than the IEA predicts. The connection between economic growth and energy use is fundamental in the IEA’s present modeling approach. Since our forecast sees little chance of a significant increase in global oil production, our findings suggest that the ‘‘policy makers, investors and end users’’ to whom WEO 2008 is addressed should rethink their future plans for economic growth. The fact that global oil production has very probably passed its maximum implies that we have reached the Peak of the Oil Age.

    Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
    Oxford: Elsevier Ltd, 2010
    Keywords
    Future oil supply, Peak oil, World Energy Outlook 2008
    National Category
    Physical Sciences Environmental Analysis and Construction Information Technology Other Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
    Research subject
    Physics with specialization in Global Energy Resources
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-112219 (URN)10.1016/j.enpol.2009.11.021 (DOI)000274500000019 ()
    Available from: 2010-01-11 Created: 2010-01-11 Last updated: 2017-12-12
    7. Development journey and outlook of Chinese giant oilfields
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>Development journey and outlook of Chinese giant oilfields
    2010 (English)In: Petroleum Exploration and Development, ISSN 1876-3804, Vol. 37, no 2, p. 237-249Article in journal (Refereed) Published
    Abstract [en]

    Over 70% of China’s domestic oil production is obtained from nine giant oilfields. Understanding the behaviour of these fields is essential to both domestic oil production and future Chinese oil imports. This study utilizes decline curves and depletion rate analysis to create some future production outlooks for the Chinese giants. Based on our study, we can only conclude that China’s future domestic oil production faces a significant challenge caused by maturing and declining giant fields. Evidence also indicates that the extensive use of water flooding and enhanced oil recovery methods may be masking increasing scarcity and may result in even steeper future decline rates than the ones currently being seen. Our results suggest that a considerable drop in oil production from the Chinese giants can be expected over the next decades.

    Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
    Elsevier, 2010
    Keywords
    Giant oil fields, future Chinese oil production, decline curve analysis, production modelling, oil production strategy
    National Category
    Physical Sciences Environmental Analysis and Construction Information Technology Other Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
    Research subject
    Physics with specialization in Global Energy Resources
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-126678 (URN)10.1016/S1876-3804(10)60030-4 (DOI)
    Available from: 2010-06-21 Created: 2010-06-21 Last updated: 2015-01-08Bibliographically approved
    8. Historical trends in American coal production and a possible future outlook
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>Historical trends in American coal production and a possible future outlook
    2009 (English)In: International Journal of Coal Geology, ISSN 0166-5162, E-ISSN 1872-7840, Vol. 78, no 3, p. 201-216Article in journal (Refereed) Published
    Abstract [en]

    The United States has a vast supply of coal, with almost 30% of world reserves and more than 1600 Gt (short) as remaining coal resources. The US is also the world’s second largest coal producer after China and annually produces more than twice as much coal as India, the third largest producer.

    The reserves are concentrated in a few states, giving them a major influence on future production. Historically many states have also shown a dramatic reduction in recoverable coal volumes and this has been closely investigated. Current recoverable estimates may also be too high, especially if further restrictions are imposed. The average calorific value of US coals has decreased from 29.2 MJ/kg in 1950 to 23.6 MJ/kg in 2007 as U.S. production moved to subbituminous western coals. This has also been examined in more detail.

    This study also uses established analysis methods from oil and gas production forecasting, such as Hubbert linearization and logistic curves, to create some possible future outlooks for U.S. coal production. In one case, the production stabilizes at 1400 Mt annually and remains there until the end of the century, provided that Montana dramatically increases coal output. The second case, which ignores mining restrictions, forecasts a maximum production of 2500 Mt annually by the end of the century.

    Keywords
    USA, future coal production, peak coal, coal reserves, logistic model
    National Category
    Physical Sciences Environmental Analysis and Construction Information Technology Other Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
    Research subject
    Physics with specialization in Global Energy Resources
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-100953 (URN)10.1016/j.coal.2009.03.002 (DOI)000266178900003 ()
    Available from: 2009-04-14 Created: 2009-04-14 Last updated: 2017-12-13Bibliographically approved
    9. Trends in U.S. recoverable coal supply estimates and future production outlooks
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>Trends in U.S. recoverable coal supply estimates and future production outlooks
    2010 (English)In: Natural Resources Research, ISSN 1520-7439, E-ISSN 1573-8981, Vol. 19, no 3, p. 189-208Article in journal (Refereed) Published
    Abstract [en]

    The geological coal resource of the U.S. is abundant and proved coal reserves are listed as the world’s largest. However, the reserves are unevenly distributed and located in a small number of states, giving them major influence over future production. A long history of coal mining provides detailed time series of production and reserve estimates, which can be used to identify historical trends. In reviewing the historical evolution of coal reserves, one can state that the trend here does not point towards any major increases in available recoverable reserves; rather the opposite is true due to restrictions and increased focus on environmental impacts from coal extraction. Future coal production will not be entirely determined by what is geologically available, but rather by the fraction of that amount that is practically recoverable. Consequently, the historical trend towards reduced recoverable amounts is likely to continue into the future, with even stricter regulations imposed by increased environmental concern.

    Long-term outlooks can be created in many ways, but ultimately the production must be limited by recoverable volumes since coal is a finite resource. The geologic amounts of coal are of much less importance to future production than the practically recoverable volumes. The geological coal supply might be vast, but the important question is how large the share that can be extracted under present restrictions are and how those restrictions will develop in the future. Production limitations might therefore appear much sooner than previously expected.

    Keywords
    US coal reserves, future production, peak coal
    National Category
    Physical Sciences Other Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Environmental Analysis and Construction Information Technology
    Research subject
    Physics with specialization in Global Energy Resources
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-125519 (URN)10.1007/s11053-010-9121-1 (DOI)
    Note
    This is a slightly revised and improved version of the conference paper that was presented in 2009Available from: 2010-05-20 Created: 2010-05-20 Last updated: 2017-12-12Bibliographically approved
    10. Global coal production outlooks based on a logistic model
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>Global coal production outlooks based on a logistic model
    2010 (English)In: Fuel, ISSN 0016-2361, E-ISSN 1873-7153, Vol. 89, no 11, p. 3546-3558Article in journal (Refereed) Published
    Abstract [en]

    A small number of nations control the vast majority of the world’s coal reserves. The geologically available amounts of coal are vast, but geological availability is not enough to ensure future production since economics and restrictions also play an important role. Historical trends in reserve and resource assessments can provide some insight about future coal supply and provide reasonable limits for modelling. This study uses a logistic model to create long-term outlooks for global coal production. A global peak in coal production can be expected between 2020 and 2050, depending on estimates of recoverable volumes. This is also compared with other forecasts. The overall conclusion is that the global coal production could reach a maximum level much sooner than most observers expect.

    Keywords
    Future coal production, peak coal, logistic model, historical reserve and resource assessments
    National Category
    Physical Sciences Environmental Analysis and Construction Information Technology Other Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
    Research subject
    Physics with specialization in Global Energy Resources
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-127196 (URN)10.1016/j.fuel.2010.06.013 (DOI)000280604000050 ()
    Available from: 2010-07-07 Created: 2010-07-07 Last updated: 2017-12-12Bibliographically approved
  • 13.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Coal and Peat: global resources and future supply2012In: Encyclopedia of Sustainability Science and Technology / [ed] R.A. Mayer, New York: Springer , 2012Chapter in book (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Coal is the second most important fuel currently used by mankind, accounting for over 25% of the world’s primary energy supply. It provides 41% of global electricity supplies and is a vital fuel or production input for the steel, cement and chemical industries. However, coal is a fossil fuel formed from organic material by geological processes over millions of years. Hence, coal is a finite resource in terms of human time scales and its continued availability is important to the world economy.

    Peat is a related substance, but is classified somewhere between a fossil fuel and biomass. The energy sector uses peat as a fuel to generate electricity and heat. It also has applications in industrial, residential and other sectors but global consumption of peat is insignificant in comparison to coal. Peat shares many similarities with coal and is increasingly often grouped with coal for resource estimates in reports and assessments by public agencies.

    Knowing how coal and peat are created is vital to understanding how deposits are formed and what their basic properties are. Geology provides models and methodologies for describing deposits and where to find them. Exploration, drilling and surveys provide the data necessary to map deposits and assess the resources they contain. Classification schemes are also central to understanding how the terms relate to the underlying data.

    Future production of coal and peat is essential for the development of global energy supplies. It is only the produced volumes that can be used in human activities and a detailed appreciation of the production process is essential in understanding future supply developments. Factors such as economy, technology, legal and environmental constraints affect the recoverable share of the available resources, i.e. the reserves. Understanding the complexity and the greater whole of the production mechanism and the limitations that are imposed on it require a wide variety of approaches and conceptual infrastructures.

  • 14.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Depletion and decline curve analysis in crude oil production2009Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Oil is the black blood that runs through the veins of the modern global energy system. While being the dominant source of energy, oil has also brought wealth and power to the western world. Future supply for oil is unsure or even expected to decrease due to limitations imposed by peak oil. Energy is fundamental to all parts of society. The enormous growth and development of society in the last two-hundred years has been driven by rapid increase in the extraction of fossil fuels. In the foresee-able future, the majority of energy will still come from fossil fuels. Consequently, reliable methods for forecasting their production, especially crude oil, are crucial. Forecasting crude oil production can be done in many different ways, but in order to provide realistic outlooks, one must be mindful of the physical laws that affect extraction of hydrocarbons from a reser-voir. Decline curve analysis is a long established tool for developing future outlooks for oil production from an individual well or an entire oilfield. Depletion has a fundamental role in the extraction of finite resources and is one of the driving mechanisms for oil flows within a reservoir. Depletion rate also can be connected to decline curves. Consequently, depletion analysis is a useful tool for analysis and forecasting crude oil production. Based on comprehensive databases with reserve and production data for hundreds of oil fields, it has been possible to identify typical behaviours and properties. Using a combination of depletion and decline rate analysis gives a better tool for describing future oil production on a field-by-field level. Reliable and reasonable forecasts are essential for planning and nec-essary in order to understand likely future world oil production.

    List of papers
    1. A decline rate study of Norwegian oil production
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>A decline rate study of Norwegian oil production
    2008 (English)In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 36, no 11, p. 4262-4271Article in journal (Refereed) Published
    Abstract [en]

    Norway has been a very important oil exporter for the world and an important supplier for Europe. Oil was first discovered in the North Sea in late 1960s and the rapid expansion of Norwegian oil production lead to the low oil prices in the beginning of the 1990s. In 2001 Norway reached its peak production and began to decline.

    The Norwegian oil production can be broken up into four subclasses; giant oil fields, smaller oil fields, natural gas liquids and condensate. The production of each subclass was analyzed to find typical behaviour and decline rates. The typical decline rates of giant oil fields were found to be -13% annually. The other subclasses decline equally fast or even faster, especially condensate with typical decline rates of -40% annually. The conclusion from the forecast is that Norway will have dramatically reduced export volume of oil by 2030.

    Keywords
    Future Norwegian oil production, peak oil, decline rate, field-by-field analysis, oil production policy
    National Category
    Physical Sciences Other Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
    Research subject
    Physics with specialization in Global Energy Resources
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-100952 (URN)10.1016/j.enpol.2008.07.039 (DOI)000261020100028 ()
    Available from: 2009-04-14 Created: 2009-04-14 Last updated: 2017-12-13Bibliographically approved
    2. The evolution of giant oil field production behaviour
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>The evolution of giant oil field production behaviour
    2009 (English)In: Natural Resources Research, ISSN 1520-7439, E-ISSN 1573-8981, Vol. 18, no 1, p. 39-56Article in journal (Refereed) Published
    Abstract [en]

    The giant oil fields of the world are only a small fraction of the total number of fields, but their importance is huge. Over 50% of the world oil production came from giants by 2005 and more than haft of the worlds ultimate reserves are found in giants. Based on this it is reasonable to assume that the future development of the giant oil fields will have a significant impact on the world oil supply.

    In order to better understand the giant fields and their future behaviour one must first understand their history. This study has used a comprehensive database on giant oil fields in order to determine their typical parameters, such as the average decline rate and life-times of giants. The evolution of giant oil field behaviour has been investigated to better understand future behaviour. One conclusion is that new technology and production methods have generally lead to high depletion rate and rapid decline. The historical trend points towards high decline rates of fields currently on plateau production.

    The peak production generally occurs before half the ultimate reserves have been produced in giant oil fields. A strong correlation between depletion-at-peak and average decline rate is also found, verifying that high depletion rate leads to rapid decline. Our result also implies that depletion analysis can be used to rule out unrealistic production expectations from a known reserve, or to connect an estimated production level to a needed reserve base.

    Keywords
    Giant oil fields, field behaviour, peak oil, depletion
    National Category
    Physical Sciences Other Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
    Research subject
    Physics with specialization in Global Energy Resources
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-100954 (URN)10.1007/s11053-009-9087-z (DOI)
    Available from: 2009-04-14 Created: 2009-04-14 Last updated: 2017-12-13Bibliographically approved
    3. Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production
    2009 (English)In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 37, no 6, p. 2262-2272Article in journal (Refereed) Published
    Abstract [en]

    The most important contributors to the world's total oil production are the giant oil fields. Using a comprehensive database of giant oil field production, the average decline rates of the world's giant oil fields are estimated. Separating subclasses was necessary, since there are large differences between land and offshore fields, as well as between non-OPEC and OPEC fields. The evolution of decline rates over past decades includes the impact of new technologies and production techniques and clearly shows that the average decline rate for individual giant fields is increasing with time. These factors have significant implications for the future, since the most important world oil production base - giant fields - will decline more rapidly in the future, according to our findings. Our conclusion is that the world faces an increasing oil supply challenge, as the decline in existing production is not only high now but will be increasing in the future.

    Keywords
    Giant oil fields, decline rates, peak oil, future oil production
    National Category
    Physical Sciences Other Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
    Research subject
    Physics with specialization in Global Energy Resources
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-106701 (URN)10.1016/j.enpol.2009.02.020 (DOI)000266233300030 ()
    Available from: 2009-06-27 Created: 2009-06-27 Last updated: 2017-12-13Bibliographically approved
  • 15.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems.
    Depletion rate analysis of fields and regions: a methodological foundation2014In: Fuel, ISSN 0016-2361, E-ISSN 1873-7153, Vol. 121, no 4, p. 95-108Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper presents a comprehensive mathematical framework for depletion rate analysis and ties it to the physics of depletion. Theory was compared with empirical data from 1036 fields and a number of regions. Strong agreement between theory and practice was found, indicating that the framework is plausible. Both single fields and entire regions exhibit similar depletion rate patterns, showing the generality of the approach. The maximum depletion rates for fields were found to be well described by a Weibull distribution.

    Depletion rates were also found to strongly correlate with decline rates. In particular, the depletion rate at peak was shown to be useful for predicting the future decline rate. Studies of regions indicate that a depletion rate of remaining recoverable resources in the range of 2–3% is consistent with historical experience. This agrees well with earlier “peak oil” forecasts and indicates that they rest on a solid scientific ground. 

  • 16.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Fuelling Future Emissions: Examining Fossil Fuel Production Outlooks Used in Climate Models2011In: Climate Change: Research and Technology for Adaptation and Mitigation / [ed] Juan Blanco, Houshang Kheradmand, Intech , 2011, p. 39-62Chapter in book (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The anthropogenic component of projected climate change is dependent on the future emissions of greenhouse gasses. Energy production is, with a roughly 60% share, the principal contributor to mankind’s release of CO2 to the atmosphere. This is predominantly caused by the use of fossil fuels in various combustion processes. Consequently, anthropogenic emissions and global warming are fundamentally linked to future energy production. Projections of how the global energy system will develop over the next centuryare cornerstones in the assessment of future climate change caused by mankind.

  • 17.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Future coal production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios: Are they plausible?2010In: Twenty Seventh Annual International Pittsburgh Coal Conference: October 11 - 14, 2010, 2010Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Anthropogenic climate change caused by CO

    The assumptions on resource availability are in SRES based on Rogner’s assessment of world hydrocarbon resources from 1997, where it is stated that "the sheer size of the fossil resource base makes fossil sources an energy supply option for many centuries to come". Regarding the future coal production it is simply assumed to be dependent on economics, accessibility, and environmental acceptance. It is also generally assumed that coal is abundant, and will thus take a dominating part in the future energy system. Depletion, geographical location and geological parameters are not given much influence in the scenario storylines.

    This study quantifies what the coal production projection in SRES would imply in reality. SRES is riddled with future production projections that would put unreasonable expectation on just a few countries or regions. Is it reasonable to expect that China, among the world’s largest coal reserve and resource holder and producer, would increase their production by a factor of 8 over the next 90 years, as implied by certain scenarios? Can massive increases in global coal output really be justified from historical trends or will reality rule out some production outlooks as implausible?

    The fundamental assumptions regarding future fossil fuel production in SRES was investigated and compared with scientific methodology regarding reasonable future production trajectories. Historical data from the past 20 years was used to test how well the production scenarios agree with actual reality. Some of the scenarios turned out to mismatch with reality, and should be ruled out. Given the importance of coal utilization as a source of anthropogenic GHG emissions it is necessary to use realistic production trajectories that incorporate geological and physical data as well as socioeconomic parameters. SRES is underpinned by a paradigm of perpetual growth and technological optimism as well as old and outdated estimates regarding the availability of fossil energy. This has resulted in overoptimistic production outlooks.

    2 emissions is strongly and fundamentally linked to the future energy production. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) from 2000 contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. Coal, with its 26% share of world energy, is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions and commonly seen as a key contributor to anthropogenic climate change. SRES contains a wide array of different coal production outlooks, ranging from a complete coal phase-out by 2100 to a roughly tenfold increase from present world production levels. Scenarios with high levels of global warming also have high expectations on future fossil fuel production.

  • 18.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Future coal production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios: Are they plausible?2011In: Energy and Environment, ISSN 0958-305X, E-ISSN 2048-4070, Vol. 22, no 7, p. 837-858Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Anthropogenic climate change caused by CO2 emissions is strongly linked to the future energy production, specifically coal. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. This study examines the SRES coal production outlooks. Fundamental assumptions regarding coal availability and production in SRES was also compared with recent studies on reasonable future production outlooks. It was found that SRES puts unreasonable expectation on just a few countries. Is it reasonable to expect that China, already accounting for 46% of the global output, would increase their production by a factor of 8 over the next 90 years, as implied by certain SRES scenarios? It is concluded that SRES is underpinned by a paradigm of perpetual growth and technological optimism as well as old and outdated resource estimates. This has resulted in overoptimistic production outlooks.

  • 19.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Mapping Chinese Supply2018In: Nature Energy, ISSN 0028-212X, E-ISSN 2213-0217, Vol. 3, no 3, p. 166-167Article in journal (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Documenting the emissions and net energy of a crude supply could be essential to meeting national emission and energy security targets. Using data from hundreds of fields worldwide, a well-to-refinery study presents a high-granularity profile of China’s crude oil supply in terms of emissions and energy return on input.

  • 20.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems.
    Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND)2011Other (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 21.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Neutron Research.
    Study of the pulse shape as a means to identify neutrons and gammas in a NE213 detector2006Independent thesis Advanced level (professional degree), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    This report describes investigations of the NE213-detector and the possibility to utilize pulse shape analysis to separate neutrons and gammas in a mixed emission field. Neutron fluxes are often contaminated with gammas, to which the detectors are sensitive. Sorting out the unwanted gamma pulses from the interesting neutrons is therefore crucial in many situations, for instance in fusion reactor diagnostics, such as for neutron cameras. This can be done based on pulse shapes, which differ for gammas and neutrons interacting in the NE213-detector. By analyzing the pulse shapes from a digital transient recorder, neutrons can be distinguished from gammas. An experiment with a Cf-252 neutron source was set up and provided data. The separation algorithm was based on charge comparison and gave good results. Furthermore the results of the pulse shape analysis were verified by TOF-measurements. The lowest permissible energy for a reasonable separation was found to be around 0.5 MeV. Some conclusions on the limitations of the equipment were also made.

  • 22.
    Höök, Mikael
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Aleklett, Kjell
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    A decline rate study of Norwegian oil production2008In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 36, no 11, p. 4262-4271Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Norway has been a very important oil exporter for the world and an important supplier for Europe. Oil was first discovered in the North Sea in late 1960s and the rapid expansion of Norwegian oil production lead to the low oil prices in the beginning of the 1990s. In 2001 Norway reached its peak production and began to decline.

    The Norwegian oil production can be broken up into four subclasses; giant oil fields, smaller oil fields, natural gas liquids and condensate. The production of each subclass was analyzed to find typical behaviour and decline rates. The typical decline rates of giant oil fields were found to be -13% annually. The other subclasses decline equally fast or even faster, especially condensate with typical decline rates of -40% annually. The conclusion from the forecast is that Norway will have dramatically reduced export volume of oil by 2030.

  • 23.
    Höök, Mikael
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Aleklett, Kjell
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    A review on coal to liquid fuels and its coal consumption2010In: International journal of energy research (Print), ISSN 0363-907X, E-ISSN 1099-114X, Vol. 34, no 10, p. 848-864Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Continued reliance on oil is unsustainable and this has resulted in interest in alternative fuels. Coal-to-Liquids (CTL) can supply liquid fuels and have been successfully used in several cases, particularly in South Africa. This article reviews CTL theory and technology. Understanding the fundamental aspects of coal liquefaction technologies are vital for planning and policy-making, as future CTL systems will be integrated in a much larger global energy and fuel utilization system.

    Conversion ratios for CTL are generally estimated to be between 1-2 barrels/ton coal. This puts a strict limitation on future CTL capacity imposed by future coal production volumes, regardless of other factors such as economics, emissions or environmental concern. Assuming that 10% of world coal production can be diverted to CTL, the contribution to liquid fuel supply will be limited to only a few Mb/d. This prevents CTL from becoming a viable mitigation plan for liquid fuel shortage on a global scale. However, it is still possible for individual nations to derive significant shares of their fuel supply from CTL, but those nations must also have access to equally significant coal production capacities. It is unrealistic to claim that CTL provides a feasible solution to liquid fuels shortages created by peak oil. For the most part, it can only be a minor contributor and must be combined with other strategies.

  • 24.
    Höök, Mikael
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Aleklett, Kjell
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Historical trends in American coal production and a possible future outlook2009In: International Journal of Coal Geology, ISSN 0166-5162, E-ISSN 1872-7840, Vol. 78, no 3, p. 201-216Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The United States has a vast supply of coal, with almost 30% of world reserves and more than 1600 Gt (short) as remaining coal resources. The US is also the world’s second largest coal producer after China and annually produces more than twice as much coal as India, the third largest producer.

    The reserves are concentrated in a few states, giving them a major influence on future production. Historically many states have also shown a dramatic reduction in recoverable coal volumes and this has been closely investigated. Current recoverable estimates may also be too high, especially if further restrictions are imposed. The average calorific value of US coals has decreased from 29.2 MJ/kg in 1950 to 23.6 MJ/kg in 2007 as U.S. production moved to subbituminous western coals. This has also been examined in more detail.

    This study also uses established analysis methods from oil and gas production forecasting, such as Hubbert linearization and logistic curves, to create some possible future outlooks for U.S. coal production. In one case, the production stabilizes at 1400 Mt annually and remains there until the end of the century, provided that Montana dramatically increases coal output. The second case, which ignores mining restrictions, forecasts a maximum production of 2500 Mt annually by the end of the century.

  • 25.
    Höök, Mikael
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Aleklett, Kjell
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Trends in U.S. recoverable coal supply estimates and future production outlooks2009In: Twenty Sixth Annual International Pittsburgh Coal Conference: September 20-23, 2009, Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh , 2009Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The geological coal resource of the U.S. is abundant and proved coal reserves are listed as the world’s largest. However, the reserves are unevenly distributed and located in a small number of states, giving them major influence over future production. A long history of coal mining provides detailed time series of production and reserve estimates, which can be used to identify historical trends. Compilation of data from United States Geological Survey, Energy Information Administration, U.S. Bureau of Mines and others reveal how the recoverable volumes have been decreased since before the 1950s. The exact cause of this reduction is probably a multitude of factors, including depletion, changes in economic conditions, land-use restrictions, environmental protection and social acceptance.

    In reviewing the historical evolution of coal reserves, one can state that the trend here does not point towards any major increases in available recoverable reserves; rather the opposite is true due to restrictions and increased focus on environmental impacts from coal extraction. The development of new even stricter regulations and environmental laws is also a reasonable assumption and this will further limit the amount of recoverable coal. Future coal production will not be entirely determined by what is geologically available, but rather by the fraction of that amount that is practically recoverable. Consequently, the historical trend towards reduced recoverable amounts is likely to continue into the future, with even stricter regulations imposed by increased environmental concern.

    Long-term outlooks can be created in many ways, but ultimately the production must be limited by recoverable volumes since coal is a finite resource. Various models, such as the logistic, Hubbert or Gompertz curves, can be used to provide reasonable long-term outlooks for future production. However, such long-term life-cycle projections should not be used as a substitute for meticulous economic studies to forecast perturbations in coal production over the next few years or decades. Based on a logistic model, using the recoverable reserves as an estimate of what is realistically available for production, results in a coal output of around 1400 Mt by 2030 through the rest of the century.

    The geologic amounts of coal are of much less importance to future production than the practically recoverable volumes. The geological coal supply might be vast, but the important question is how large the share that can be extracted under present restrictions are and how those restrictions will develop in the future. Production limitations might therefore appear much sooner than previously expected.

  • 26.
    Höök, Mikael
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Aleklett, Kjell
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Trends in U.S. recoverable coal supply estimates and future production outlooks2010In: Natural Resources Research, ISSN 1520-7439, E-ISSN 1573-8981, Vol. 19, no 3, p. 189-208Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The geological coal resource of the U.S. is abundant and proved coal reserves are listed as the world’s largest. However, the reserves are unevenly distributed and located in a small number of states, giving them major influence over future production. A long history of coal mining provides detailed time series of production and reserve estimates, which can be used to identify historical trends. In reviewing the historical evolution of coal reserves, one can state that the trend here does not point towards any major increases in available recoverable reserves; rather the opposite is true due to restrictions and increased focus on environmental impacts from coal extraction. Future coal production will not be entirely determined by what is geologically available, but rather by the fraction of that amount that is practically recoverable. Consequently, the historical trend towards reduced recoverable amounts is likely to continue into the future, with even stricter regulations imposed by increased environmental concern.

    Long-term outlooks can be created in many ways, but ultimately the production must be limited by recoverable volumes since coal is a finite resource. The geologic amounts of coal are of much less importance to future production than the practically recoverable volumes. The geological coal supply might be vast, but the important question is how large the share that can be extracted under present restrictions are and how those restrictions will develop in the future. Production limitations might therefore appear much sooner than previously expected.

  • 27.
    Höök, Mikael
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Bardi, Ugo
    University of Firenze.
    Feng, Lianyong
    China University of Petroleum - Beijing.
    Pang, Xiongqi
    China University of Petroleum - Beijing.
    Development of oil formation theories and their importance for peak oil2010In: Marine and Petroleum Geology, ISSN 0264-8172, E-ISSN 1873-4073, Vol. 27, no 9, p. 1995-2004Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper reviews the historical development of both biogenic and non-biogenic petroleum formation. It also examines the recent claim that the so-called “abiotic” oil formation theory undermines the concept of “peak oil,” i.e. the notion that world oil production is destined to reach a maximum that will be followed by an irreversible decline. We show that peak oil is first and foremost a matter of production flows. Consequently, the mechanism of oil formation does not strongly affect depletion. We would need to revise the theory beyond peak oil only for the extreme — and unlikely — hypothesis of abiotic petroleum formation.

  • 28.
    Höök, Mikael
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems.
    Davidsson, Simon
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems.
    Johansson, Sheshti
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems.
    Tang, Xu
    China University of Petroleum - Beijing.
    Decline and depletion rates of oil production: a comprehensive investigation2014In: Philosophical Transactions. Series A: Mathematical, physical, and engineering science, ISSN 1364-503X, E-ISSN 1471-2962, Vol. 372, no 2006, p. 0120448-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Two of the most fundamental concepts in the current debate about future oil supply are oil field decline rates and depletion rates. These concepts are related, but not identical. This paper clarifies the definitions of these concepts, summarises the underlying theory and empirically estimates decline and depletion rates for different categories of oil field. A database of 880 post-peak fields is analysed to determine typical depletion levels, depletion rates, and decline rates. This demonstrates that the size of oil fields has a significant influence on decline and depletion rates, with generally high values for small fields and comparatively low values for larger fields. These empirical findings have important implications for oil supply forecasting.

  • 29.
    Höök, Mikael
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems.
    Dean, Fantazzini
    Moscow State University.
    André, Angelantoni
    Post Peak Living.
    Simon, Snowden
    University of Liverpool.
    Coal-to-Liquids: viability as a peak oil mitigation strategy2012In: Twenty Ninth Annual International Pittsburgh Coal Conference, 2012Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Converting coal to a liquid, commonly known as coal-to-liquids (CTL), can supply liquid fuels and has been successfully used in several countries, particularly in South Africa. However, it has not become a major contributor to the global oil supply. Increasing awareness of the scarcity of oil and rising oil prices has increased the interest in coal liquefaction. This paper surveys CTL technology, economics and environmental performance. Understanding the fundamental aspects of coal liquefaction technologies is vital for planning and policy-making since future CTL production will be integrated in a much larger global energy and liquid fuel production system.

    The economic analysis shows that many CTL studies assume conditions that are optimistic at best. In addition, the strong risk for a CTL plant to become a financial black hole is highlighted. This helps to explain why China has recently slowed down the development of its CTL program.

    The technical analysis investigates the coal consumption of CTL. Generally, a yield of between 1–2 barrels/ton coal can be achieved while the technical limit seems to be 3 barrels/ton coal. This puts a strict limit on future CTL capacity imposed by future coal production, regardless of other factors such as economic viability, emissions or environmental concern. For example, assuming that 10% of world coal production can be diverted to CTL, the contribution to the liquid fuel supply will be limited to only a few million barrels per day (Mb/d). This prevents CTL from becoming a viable mitigation plan for liquid fuel shortage on a global scale.

    However, it is still possible for individual nations to derive a significant share of their fuel supply from CTL but those nations must also have access to equally significant coal production capacity. It is unrealistic to claim that CTL provides a feasible solution to liquid fuels shortages created by peak oil. At best, it can be only a minor contributor and must be combined with other strategies to ensure future liquid fuel supply.

  • 30.
    Höök, Mikael
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems.
    Fantazzini, Dean
    Moscow School of Economics.
    Angelantoni, André
    Post Peak Living.
    Snowden, Simon
    Liverpool University.
    Hydrocarbon liquefaction: viability as a peak oil mitigation strategy2014In: Philosophical Transactions. Series A: Mathematical, physical, and engineering science, ISSN 1364-503X, E-ISSN 1471-2962, Vol. 372, no 2006, p. 20120319-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Current world capacity of hydrocarbon liquefaction is around 400,000 barrels per day (kb/d), providing a marginal share of the global liquid fuel supply. This study performs a broad review of technical, economic, environmental, and supply chains issues related to coal-to-liquids (CTL) and gas-to-liquids (GTL). We find three issues predominate. First, significant amounts of coal and gas would be required to obtain anything more than a marginal production of liquids. Second, the economics of CTL plants are clearly prohibitive, but are better for GTL. Nevertheless, large scale GTL plants still require very high upfront costs, and for three real world GTL plants out of four, the final cost has been so far approximately three times that initially budgeted. Small scale GTL holds potential for associated gas. Third, CTL and GTL both incur significant environmental impacts, ranging from increased greenhouse gas emissions (in the case of CTL) to water contamination. Environmental concerns may significantly affect growth of these projects until adequate solutions are found.

  • 31.
    Höök, Mikael
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Hirsch, Robert
    Aleklett, Kjell
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production2009In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 37, no 6, p. 2262-2272Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The most important contributors to the world's total oil production are the giant oil fields. Using a comprehensive database of giant oil field production, the average decline rates of the world's giant oil fields are estimated. Separating subclasses was necessary, since there are large differences between land and offshore fields, as well as between non-OPEC and OPEC fields. The evolution of decline rates over past decades includes the impact of new technologies and production techniques and clearly shows that the average decline rate for individual giant fields is increasing with time. These factors have significant implications for the future, since the most important world oil production base - giant fields - will decline more rapidly in the future, according to our findings. Our conclusion is that the world faces an increasing oil supply challenge, as the decline in existing production is not only high now but will be increasing in the future.

  • 32.
    Höök, Mikael
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems. Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Li, Junchen
    China University of Petroleum - Beijing.
    Johansson, Kersti
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems.
    Snowden, Simon
    University of Liverpool.
    Growth rates of global energy systems and future outlooks2012In: Natural Resources Research, ISSN 1520-7439, E-ISSN 1573-8981, Vol. 21, no 1, p. 23-41Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The world is interconnected and powered by a number of global energy systems using fossil, nuclear, or renewable energy. This study reviews historical time series of energy production and growth for various energy sources. It compiles a theoretical and empirical foundation for understanding the behaviour underlying global energy systems' growth. The most extreme growth rates are found in fossil fuels. The presence of scaling behaviour, i.e. proportionality between growth rate and size, is established. The findings are used to investigate the consistency of several long-range scenarios expecting rapid growth for future energy systems. The validity of such projections is questioned, based on past experience. Finally, it is found that even if new energy systems undergo a rapid "oil boom"-development - i.e. they mimic the most extreme historical events - their contribution to global energy supply by 2050 will be marginal.

  • 33.
    Höök, Mikael
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Li, Junchen
    China University of Petroleum.
    Oba, Noriaki
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Snowden, Simon
    University of Liverpool.
    Descriptive and predictive growth curves in energy system analysis2011In: Natural Resources Research, ISSN 1520-7439, E-ISSN 1573-8981, Vol. 20, no 2, p. 103-116Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study reviews a variety of growth curve models and the theoretical frameworks that lay behind them. In many systems, growth patterns are, or must, ultimately be subjected to some form of limitation. A number of curve models have been developed to describe and predict such behaviours. Symmetric growth curves have frequently been used for forecasting fossil fuel production, but others have expressed a need for more flexible and asymmetric models.

    A number of examples show differences and applications of various growth curve models. It is concluded that these growth curve models can be utilised as forecasting tools, but are do not necessarily provide better predictions than any other method. Consequently, growth curve models and other forecasting methods should be used together to provide a triangulated forecast. Furthermore, the growth curve methodology offers a simple tool for resource management to determine what might happen to future production if resource availability poses a problem. In the light of peak oil and the awareness of natural resources as a basis for the continued well-being of society and mankind, resource management should be an important factor in future social planning.

  • 34.
    Höök, Mikael
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Sivertsson, Anders
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Aleklett, Kjell
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Validity of the fossil fuel production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios2010In: Natural Resources Research, ISSN 1520-7439, E-ISSN 1573-8981, Vol. 19, no 2, p. 63-81Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Anthropogenic global warming caused by CO2 emissions is strongly and fundamentally linked to future energy production. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) from 2000 contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. Previous scenarios were withdrawn after exaggerating one or several trends. This study investigates underlying assumptions on resource availability and future production expectations to determine whether exaggerations can be found in the present set of emission scenarios as well.

    It is found that the SRES unnecessarily takes an overoptimistic stance and that future production expectations are leaning towards spectacular increases from present output levels. In summary, we can only encourage the IPCC to involve more resource experts and natural science in future emission scenarios. The current set, SRES, is biased toward exaggerated resource availability and unrealistic expectations on future production outputs from fossil fuels.

  • 35.
    Höök, Mikael
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Söderbergh, Bengt
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Aleklett, Kjell
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Future Danish oil and gas export2009In: Energy, ISSN 0360-5442, E-ISSN 1873-6785, Vol. 34, no 11, p. 1826-1834Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Denmark possesses only a small share of the exploitation rights to North Sea oil and is a minor producer when compared to Norway and the UK. However, Denmark is still an oil exporter and a very important supplier of oil for certain countries, in particular Sweden.

    A field-by-field analysis of the Danish oil and gas fields, combined with estimated production contribution from new field developments, enhanced oil recovery and undiscovered fields, provides a future production outlook. The conclusion from this analysis is that by 2030 Denmark will no longer be an oil or gas exporter at all. Our results are also in agreement with the Danish Energy Authority’s own forecast, and may be seen as an independent confirmation of their general statements.

    Decreasing Danish oil production, coupled with a rapid decline in Norway’s oil output, will force Sweden to import oil from more distant markets in the future, dramatically reducing Swedish energy security. If no new gas suppliers are introduced to the Swedish grid, then Swedish gas consumption is clearly predestined to crumble alongside declining Danish production. Future hydrocarbon production from Denmark displays a clear link to Sweden’s future energy security.

  • 36.
    Höök, Mikael
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Söderbergh, Bengt
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Jakobsson, Kristofer
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Aleklett, Kjell
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    The evolution of giant oil field production behaviour2009In: Natural Resources Research, ISSN 1520-7439, E-ISSN 1573-8981, Vol. 18, no 1, p. 39-56Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The giant oil fields of the world are only a small fraction of the total number of fields, but their importance is huge. Over 50% of the world oil production came from giants by 2005 and more than haft of the worlds ultimate reserves are found in giants. Based on this it is reasonable to assume that the future development of the giant oil fields will have a significant impact on the world oil supply.

    In order to better understand the giant fields and their future behaviour one must first understand their history. This study has used a comprehensive database on giant oil fields in order to determine their typical parameters, such as the average decline rate and life-times of giants. The evolution of giant oil field behaviour has been investigated to better understand future behaviour. One conclusion is that new technology and production methods have generally lead to high depletion rate and rapid decline. The historical trend points towards high decline rates of fields currently on plateau production.

    The peak production generally occurs before half the ultimate reserves have been produced in giant oil fields. A strong correlation between depletion-at-peak and average decline rate is also found, verifying that high depletion rate leads to rapid decline. Our result also implies that depletion analysis can be used to rule out unrealistic production expectations from a known reserve, or to connect an estimated production level to a needed reserve base.

  • 37.
    Höök, Mikael
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems.
    Tang, Xu
    China University of Petroleum - Beijing.
    Depletion of fossil fuels and anthropogenic climate change: a review2013In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 52, p. 797-809Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Future scenarios with significant anthropogenic climate change also display large increases in world production of fossil fuels, the principal CO2 emission source. Meanwhile, fossil fuel depletion has also been identified as a future challenge. This chapter reviews the connection between these two issues and concludes that limits to availability of fossil fuels will set a limit for mankind’s ability to affect the climate. However, this limit is unclear as various studies have reached quite different conclusions regarding future atmospheric CO2 concentrations caused by fossil fuel limitations.

    It is concluded that the current set of emission scenarios used by the IPCC and others is perforated by optimistic expectations on future fossil fuel production that are improbable or even unrealistic. The current situation, where climate models largely rely on emission scenarios detached from the reality of supply and its inherent problems is problematic. In fact, it may even mislead planners and politicians into making decisions that mitigate one problem but make the other one worse. It is important to understand that the fossil energy problem and the anthropogenic climate change problem are tightly connected and need to be treated as two interwoven challenges necessitating a holistic solution.

  • 38.
    Höök, Mikael
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Tang, Xu
    China University of Petroleum.
    Pang, Xiongqi
    China University of Petroleum.
    Aleklett, Kjell
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Development journey and outlook of Chinese giant oilfields2010In: Petroleum Exploration and Development, ISSN 1876-3804, Vol. 37, no 2, p. 237-249Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Over 70% of China’s domestic oil production is obtained from nine giant oilfields. Understanding the behaviour of these fields is essential to both domestic oil production and future Chinese oil imports. This study utilizes decline curves and depletion rate analysis to create some future production outlooks for the Chinese giants. Based on our study, we can only conclude that China’s future domestic oil production faces a significant challenge caused by maturing and declining giant fields. Evidence also indicates that the extensive use of water flooding and enhanced oil recovery methods may be masking increasing scarcity and may result in even steeper future decline rates than the ones currently being seen. Our results suggest that a considerable drop in oil production from the Chinese giants can be expected over the next decades.

  • 39.
    Höök, Mikael
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Zittel, Werner
    Ludwig Bölkow Systemtechnik GmbH.
    Schindler, Jörg
    Ludwig Bölkow Systemtechnik GmbH.
    Aleklett, Kjell
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    A supply-driven forecast for the future global coal production2008Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Several countries have already reached a maximum of coal production and are in decline, for instance Germany, The UK and Japan. A vast majority of the world’s coal reserves are located within six countries, the Big Six, which control around 85% of the world’s coal. None of these countries has yet reached maximum coal production and when they do they will consequently have a large impact on the global coal production.

    The global coal production is forecasted by using a logistic growth model and experience from historical reserve and resource assessments. A maximum production will be reached by 2030. Comparisons are made with other forecasts and the emission scenarios for climate change.

  • 40.
    Höök, Mikael
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Zittel, Werner
    Ludwig Bölkow Systemtechnik GmbH.
    Schindler, Jörg
    Ludwig Bölkow Systemtechnik GmbH.
    Aleklett, Kjell
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Global coal production outlooks based on a logistic model2010In: Fuel, ISSN 0016-2361, E-ISSN 1873-7153, Vol. 89, no 11, p. 3546-3558Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A small number of nations control the vast majority of the world’s coal reserves. The geologically available amounts of coal are vast, but geological availability is not enough to ensure future production since economics and restrictions also play an important role. Historical trends in reserve and resource assessments can provide some insight about future coal supply and provide reasonable limits for modelling. This study uses a logistic model to create long-term outlooks for global coal production. A global peak in coal production can be expected between 2020 and 2050, depending on estimates of recoverable volumes. This is also compared with other forecasts. The overall conclusion is that the global coal production could reach a maximum level much sooner than most observers expect.

  • 41.
    Jakobsson, Kristofer
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Söderbergh, Bengt
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Aleklett, Kjell
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    How reasonable are oil production scenarios from public agencies?2009In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 37, no 11, p. 4809-4818Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    According to the long term scenarios of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), conventional oil production is expected to grow until at least 2030. EIA has published results from a resource constrained production model which ostensibly supports such a scenario. The model is here described and analyzed in detail. However, it is shown that the model, although sound in principle, has been misapplied due to a confusion of resource categories. A correction of this methodological error reveals that EIA’s scenario requires rather extreme and implausible assumptions regarding future global decline rates. This result puts into question the basis for the conclusion that global "peak oil" would not occur before 2030.

  • 42.
    Jianliang, Wang
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems. China University of Petroleum - Beijing.
    Davidsson, Simon
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems.
    Lianyong, Feng
    Chinese coal supply and future production outlooks2013In: Energy, ISSN 0360-5442, E-ISSN 1873-6785, Vol. 60, p. 204-214Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    China's energy supply is dominated by coal, making projections of future coal production in China important. Recent forecasts suggest that Chinese coal production may reach a peak in 2010–2039 but with widely differing peak production levels. The estimated URR (ultimately recoverable resources) influence these projections significantly, however, widely different URR-values were used due to poor understanding of the various Chinese coal classification schemes. To mitigate these shortcomings, a comprehensive investigation of this system and an analysis of the historical evaluation of resources and reporting issues are performed. A more plausible URR is derived, which indicates that many analysts underestimate volumes available for exploitation. Projections based on the updated URR using a modified curve-fitting model indicate that Chinese coal production could peak as early as 2024 at a maximum annual production of 4.1 Gt. By considering other potential constraints, it can be concluded that peak coal in China appears inevitable and immediate. This event can be expected to have significant impact on the Chinese economy, energy strategies and GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions reduction strategies.

  • 43.
    Jin, Yi
    et al.
    China Univ Petr, Sch Business Adm, Beijing 102249, Peoples R China..
    Tang, Xu
    China Univ Petr, Sch Business Adm, Beijing 102249, Peoples R China..
    Feng, Cuiyang
    China Univ Petr, Sch Business Adm, Beijing 102249, Peoples R China..
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Energy and water conservation synergy in China: 2007-20122017In: Resources, Conservation and Recycling, ISSN 0921-3449, E-ISSN 1879-0658, Vol. 127, p. 206-215Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Energy and water issues are interrelated and have significant impacts on the economy. The amount and intensity of energy and water consumption must be controlled, which was clearly stated in the "11th Five-Year" Plan and "12th Five-Year" Plan. The energy-water nexus is a useful approach to integrate economic sectors. Energy production consumes large inputs of energy and water, while producing most of the energy required by other sectors. This synergy between energy conservation and water saving in energy sectors is intricate. This study assesses the synergistic effect between energy conservation and water saving that has been achieved by energy sectors in China during the 2007-2012 period. The research results suggest that energy sectors have completely achieved 12.40 x 10(8) m(3) water saving through energy conservation and 1.12 x 10(6) tce energy conservation through water saving. Coal, oil and gas production mainly consumed water in indirect ways, while electricity generation primarily consumed water in a direct way. The synergistic energy conservation of the electric power sector was significant and was much larger than that of the coal production sector as well as oil and gas production sector. Prominent water saving can be obtained through improved energy conservation in China's energy sectors.

  • 44.
    Junchen, Li
    et al.
    China University of Petroleum.
    Xiucheng, Dong
    China University of Petroleum.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems.
    Jian, Gao
    China University of Petroleum.
    Shiqun, Li
    Risk evaluation of technology innovation in Chinese oil and gas industry2013In: International Journal of Global Energy Issues, ISSN 0954-7118, E-ISSN 1741-5128, Vol. 36, no 1, p. 1-12Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Oiland gas industries are technology intensive and appropriate risk evaluation isnecessary. The Chinese oil and gas industry is in the development phase, thusrisk assessments and mitigation is more important than pushing technologicalinnovation. This paper compiles research of other experts in the field andevaluates innovation risk by using a multi-hierarchy grey method. The resultshows that the technology innovation risk for Chinas oil and gas industry isrelatively high. Finally, this paper proposes some suitable measures that may decreaserisk levels.

  • 45.
    Larsson, Simon
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems.
    Fantazzini, Dean
    Moscow School of Economics.
    Davidsson, Simon
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems.
    Kullander, Sven
    Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems.
    Reviewing electricity production cost assessments2013In: Renewable & sustainable energy reviews, ISSN 1364-0321, E-ISSN 1879-0690, Vol. 30, p. 170-183Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A thorough review of twelve recent studies of production costs from different power generating technologies was conducted and a wide range in cost estimates was found. The reviewed studies show differences in their methodologies and assumptions, making the stated cost figures not directly comparable and unsuitable to be generalized to represent the costs for entire technologies. Moreover, current levelized costs of electricity methodologies focus only on the producer's costs, while additional costs viewed from a consumer perspective and on external costs with impact on society should be included if these results are to be used for planning. Although this type of electricity production cost assessments can be useful, the habit of generalizing electricity production cost figures for entire technologies is problematic. Cost escalations tend to occur rapidly with time, the impact of economies of scale is significant, costs are in many cases site-specific, and country-specific circumstances affect production costs. Assumptions on the cost-influencing factors such as discount rates, fuel prices and heat credits fluctuate considerably and have a significant impact on production cost results. Electricity production costs assessments similar to the studies reviewed in this work disregard many important cost factors, making them inadequate for decision and policy making, and should only be used to provide rough ballpark estimates with respect to a given system boundary. Caution when using electricity production cost estimates are recommended, and further studies investigating cost under different circumstances, both for producers and society as a whole are called for. Also, policy makers should be aware of the potentially widely different results coming from electricity production cost estimates under different assumptions.

  • 46.
    Leena, Grandell
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Assessing Rare Metal Availability Challenges for Solar Energy Technologies2015In: Sustainability, ISSN 2071-1050, E-ISSN 2071-1050, Vol. 7, no 9, p. 11818-11837Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Solar energy is commonly seen as a future energy source with significant potential. Ruthenium, gallium, indium and several other rare elements are common and vital components of many solar energy technologies, including dye-sensitized solar cells, CIGS cells and various artificial photosynthesis approaches. This study surveys solar energy technologies and their reliance on rare metals such as indium, gallium, and ruthenium. Several of these rare materials do not occur as primary ores, and are found as byproducts associated with primary base metal ores. This will have an impact on future production trends and the availability for various applications. In addition, the geological reserves of many vital metals are scarce and severely limit the potential of certain solar energy technologies. It is the conclusion of this study that certain solar energy concepts are unrealistic in terms of achieving TW scales.

  • 47.
    Li, Junchen
    et al.
    China University of Petroleum - Beijing.
    Dong, Xiucheng
    China University of Petroleum - Beijing.
    Shangguan, Jianxin
    Marketing Company of PetroChina,.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Forecasting the growth of Chinese natural gas consumption2011In: Energy, ISSN 0360-5442, E-ISSN 1873-6785, Vol. 36, no 3, p. 1380-1385Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The use of natural gas in China is still relatively immature, as gas production only supplies a low percentage of the domestic energy system. In contrast, the Chinese economy mainly relies on coal with a 67% share of the total primary energy supply. The environmental impact from this high coal dependence is significant and planners have sought for cleaner energy sources. Natural gas is both cleaner and generally more efficient than coal and gas consumption is rising quickly due to these facts.

    The growth tendency indicates that natural gas will become an important substitution for coal in some parts of the Chinese primary energy consumption. To quantify this tendency, this paper uses a system dynamics model to create a possible outlook. The results show that the gas consumption in China will continue to increase fast to 89.5 billion cubic meters in 2010; 198.2 billion cubic meters in 2020, before finally reaching 340.7 billion cubic meters in 2030.

    It is also found that the consumption structure will change and scenario analysis was used to assess this closer. Finally, this paper gives some policy suggestions on natural gas exploration and development, infrastructure constructions and technical innovations to promote a sustainable development of China’s natural gas industry.

  • 48. Mohr, Steve
    et al.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Mudd, Gavin
    Evans, Geoffrey
    Projection of Australian coal production: Comparisons of four models2011In: Proceedings of the International Pittsburgh Coal Conference 2011, 2011Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Coal exports are an important source of revenue for Australia and for this reason Australian coal production and resources have been examined in detail. Two recoverable resource estimates, a Standard case and a High case, were determined. The Standard case calculated the likely recoverable coal resources in Australia to be 317 Gt, whereas the High scenario determined the maximal amount of recoverable coal resources at 367 Gt. The study performed forecasting by use of curve-fitting with Logistic and Gompertz curves as well as Static and Dynamic versions of a supply and demand model based on real world mineral exploitation.

    The different modelling approaches were used to project fossil fuel production and the outlooks were compared. Good agreement was found between the Logistic, Static and Dynamic supply and demand models with production peaking in 2119±6 at between 1.9 and 3.3 Gt/y. Contrasting these projections the Gompertz curves peak in 2084±5 at 1–1.1 Gt/y. It was argued that the Logistic, Static and Dynamic models are more likely to produce accurate projections than the Gompertz curve. The production forecast is based on existing technology and constraints and a qualitative discussion is presented on possible influences on future production, namely: export capacity, climate change, overburden management, environmental and social impacts and export market issues.

  • 49.
    Mohr, Steve
    et al.
    The University of Newcastle, School of Engineering.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems. Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Mudd, Gavin
    University of New South Wales, Institute of Environmental Studies.
    Evans, Geoffrey
    The University of Newcastle, School of Engineering.
    Projection of long-term paths for Australian coal production: comparisons of four models2011In: International Journal of Coal Geology, ISSN 0166-5162, E-ISSN 1872-7840, Vol. 86, no 4, p. 329-341Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Coal exports are an important source of revenue for Australia and for this reason Australian coal production and resources have been examined in detail and two recoverable resource estimates determined namely Standard and High. The Standard case calculated the likely recoverable coal resources in Australia to be 317 Gt, whereas the High scenario determined the maximal amount of recoverable coal resources at 367 Gt. Different modelling approaches (Logistic, Gompertz, Static and Dynamic supply and demand models) were used to project fossil fuel production and the projections of the relative approaches were compared. Good agreement was found between the Logistic, Static and Dynamic supply and demand models with production peaking in 2119 +/- 6 at between 1.9 and 3.3 Gt/y. Contrasting these projections the Gompertz curves peak in 2084 +/- 5 at 1-1.1 Gt/y. It was argued that the Logistic, Static and Dynamic models are more likely to produce accurate projections than the Gompertz curve. The production forecast is based on existing technology and constraints and a qualitative discussion is presented on possible influences on future production, namely: export capacity, climate change, overburden management, environmental and social impacts and export market issues.

  • 50.
    Nygren, Emma
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Aleklett, Kjell
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Aviation fuel and future oil production scenarios2009In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 37, no 10, p. 4003-4010Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Most aviation fuels are jet fuels originating from crude oil. Crude oil must be refined to be useful and jet fuel is only one of many products that can be derived from crude oil. Jet fuel is extracted from the middle distillates fraction and competes, for example, with the production of diesel. Crude oil is a limited natural resource subject to depletion and several reports indicate that the world's crude oil production is close to the maximum level and that it will start to decrease after reaching this maximum. A post Kyoto political agenda to reduce oil consumption will have the same effect on aviation fuel production as a natural decline in the crude oil production. On the other hand, it is predicted by the aviation industry that aviation traffic will keep on increasing. The industry has put ambitious goals on increases in fuel efficiency for the aviation fleet. Traffic is predicted to grow by 5% per year to 2026, fuel demand by about 3% per year. At the same time aviation fuel production is predicted to decrease by several per cent each year after the crude oil production peak is reached resulting in a substantial shortage of jet fuel by 2026. The aviation industry will have a hard time replacing this with fuel from other sources, even if air traffic remains at current levels.

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