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  • 1.
    Andersson, Elvira
    et al.
    Lund Univ, Dept Econ, S-22007 Lund, Sweden.;Lund Univ, Ctr Econ Demog, S-22007 Lund, Sweden..
    Lundborg, Petter
    Lund Univ, Dept Econ, S-22007 Lund, Sweden.;Lund Univ, Ctr Econ Demog, S-22007 Lund, Sweden.;IZA, Dresden, Germany..
    Vikström, Johan
    Uppsala University, Units outside the University, Office of Labour Market Policy Evaluation.
    Income receipt and mortality: Evidence from Swedish public sector employees2015In: Journal of Public Economics, ISSN 0047-2727, E-ISSN 1879-2316, Vol. 131, p. 21-32Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this paper, we study the short-run effect of salary receipt on mortality among Swedish public sector employees. By exploiting variation in paydays across work-places, we completely control for mortality patterns related to, for example, public holidays and other special days or events coinciding with paydays and for general within-month and within-week mortality patterns. We find a dramatic increase in mortality on the day that salaries arrive. The increase is especially pronounced for younger workers and for deaths due to activity-related causes such as heart conditions and strokes. The effect is entirely driven by an increase in mortality among low income individuals, who are more likely to experience liquidity constraints. All things considered, our results suggest that an increase in general economic activity on salary receipt is an important cause of the excess mortality.

  • 2.
    Avdic, Daniel
    et al.
    Univ Duisburg Essen, Duisburg, Germany;CINCH Essen, Essen, Germany.
    Lundborg, Petter
    Lund Univ, Dept Econ, Lund, Sweden;IZA Bonn, Bonn, Germany.
    Vikström, Johan
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics. Uppsala University, Units outside the University, Office of Labour Market Policy Evaluation.
    Estimating returns to hospital volume: Evidence from advanced cancer surgery2019In: Journal of Health Economics, ISSN 0167-6296, E-ISSN 1879-1646, Vol. 63, p. 81-99Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    High-volume hospitals typically perform better than low-volume hospitals. In this paper, we study whether such patterns reflect a causal effect of case volume on patient outcomes. To this end, we exploit closures and openings of entire cancer clinics in Swedish hospitals which provides sharp and arguably exogenous variation in case volumes. Using detailed register data on more than 100,000 treatment episodes of advanced cancer surgery, our results suggest substantial positive effects of operation volume on survival. Complementary analyses point to learning-by-doing as an important explanation. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  • 3.
    Farbmacher, Helmut
    et al.
    Max Planck Gesell, Munich Ctr Econ Aging, Munich, Germany;Univ Mannheim, Dept Econ, Mannheim, Germany.
    Guber, Raphael
    Max Planck Gesell, Munich Ctr Econ Aging, Munich, Germany.
    Vikström, Johan
    Uppsala University, Units outside the University, Office of Labour Market Policy Evaluation. Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Increasing the credibility of the twin birth instrument2018In: Journal of applied econometrics (Chichester, England), ISSN 0883-7252, E-ISSN 1099-1255, Vol. 33, no 3, p. 457-472Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Twin births are an important instrument for the endogenous fertility decision. However, twin births are not exogenous either as dizygotic twinning is correlated with maternal characteristics. Following the medical literature, we assume that monozygotic twins are exogenous, and construct a new instrument, which corrects for the selection although monozygotic twinning is usually unobserved in survey and administrative datasets. Using administrative data from Sweden, we show that the usual twin instrument is related to observed and unobserved determinants of economic outcomes, while our new instrument is not. In our applications we find that the classical twin instrument underestimates the negative effect of fertility on labor income. This finding is in line with the observation that high earners are more likely to delay childbearing and hence have a higher risk to get dizygotic twins.

  • 4.
    Hesselius, Patrik
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Units outside the University, Office of Labour Market Policy Evaluation.
    Johansson, Per
    Uppsala University, Units outside the University, Office of Labour Market Policy Evaluation.
    Vikström, Johan
    Uppsala University, Units outside the University, Office of Labour Market Policy Evaluation.
    Social Behaviour in Work Absence2013In: Scandinavian Journal of Economics, ISSN 0347-0520, E-ISSN 1467-9442, Vol. 115, no 4, p. 995-1019Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    By making use of a large-scale randomized experiment, we test whether social behaviour is important for work absence due to illness. The individuals treated in the experiment were exposed to less monitoring of their eligibility to collect sickness insurance benefits, which sharply increased their non-monitored work absence. This exogenous variation is exploited in two complementary analyses. In both analyses, we find significant social-behaviour effects. Using detailed data, we conclude that the social-behaviour effects most likely stem from fairness concerns.

  • 5.
    Lombardi, Stefano
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Units outside the University, Office of Labour Market Policy Evaluation. Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics. Uppsala Center For Labor Studies (UCLS), Uppsala, Sweden.
    Nordström Skans, Oskar
    Uppsala University, Units outside the University, Office of Labour Market Policy Evaluation. Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics, Uppsala Center for Fiscal Studies.
    Vikström, Johan
    Uppsala University, Units outside the University, Office of Labour Market Policy Evaluation. Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics, Uppsala Center for Fiscal Studies.
    Targeted wage subsidies and firm performance2018In: Labour Economics, ISSN 0927-5371, E-ISSN 1879-1034, Vol. 53, p. 33-45Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper studies how targeted wage subsidies affect the performance of the recruiting firms. Using Swedish administrative data from the period 1998-2008, we show that treated firms substantially outperform other recruiting firms after hiring through subsidies, despite identical pre-treatment performance levels and trends in a wide set of key dimensions. The pattern is less clear from 2007 onwards, after a reform removed the involvement of caseworkers from the subsidy approval process. Overall, our results suggest that targeted employment subsidies can have large positive effects on post-match outcomes of the hiring firms, at least if the policy environment allows for pre-screening by caseworkers.

  • 6.
    Lombardi, Stefano
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics. Uppsala University, Units outside the University, Office of Labour Market Policy Evaluation.
    van den Berg, Gerard Johannes
    University of Bristol, IFAU, IZA, ZEW, CEPR, J-PAL.
    Vikström, Johan
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics. Uppsala University, Units outside the University, Office of Labour Market Policy Evaluation.
    Empirical Monte Carlo Evidence on Estimation of Timing-of-Events ModelsManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In this paper we use an Empirical Monte Carlo simulation approach to study estimation of Timing-of-Events (ToE) models. We exploit rich Swedish data of jobseekers with information on participation in a training program to simulate placebo treatment durations. We first use these realistic simulations to inspect which covariates are important confounders that needs to be controlled for when estimating selection models. We show that the joint inclusion of specific types of short-term employment history variables (share of time spent in employment), together with baseline socio-economic characteristics, regional and inflow timing information, is able to remove selection bias. Next, we omit some of the covariates of the selection model and estimate ToE models with a discrete support point distribution for the unobserved heterogeneity. The ToE model is able to adjust for a large share of the unobserved heterogeneity, in particular when exploiting calendar-time variation for identification. For the discrete support distribution, we find that using too many or too few mass points generally leads to large bias. Information criteria, in particular those penalizing parameter abundance, can be very useful way to select the number of support points.

  • 7.
    Pettersson, Jan
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Wikström, Johan
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Human fertilizer and the productivity of farming households2016In: Agroecology and Sustainable Food Systems, ISSN 2168-3565, E-ISSN 2168-3573, Vol. 40, no 1, p. 48-68Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Ecological sanitation offers both sanitation and fertilizer through recycling of nutrients. Human fertilizer provides a close to free addition of nutrients in household farming and may, therefore, decrease the downward risk of fertilizer adoption. We study an ecological sanitation investment program in southern Mali, where just over 150 beneficiaries got a urine diverting dry toilet installed. Our results suggest that the average household in our study is able to produce amounts of N, P, and K equivalent to around a fourth of its yearly expenditures on artificial fertilizers, corresponding to a yearly addition of nutrients or a yearly reduction in fertilizer expenditures to a value of about 50 Euro. However, the quantity and quality of N, P, and K actually retained is found to be only a fraction of this potential amount. Using propensity score matching methods, we find an increase in maize yields among beneficiary households, but no effect on the yields of other crops. Moreover, households substitute artificial fertilizer with human fertilizer at 10-15% of the average household use of artificial fertilizers. Thus, the substitution may worsen an already bad soil nutrient balance. Higher retention levels are needed for solutions to prove financially viable.

  • 8.
    Sjögren, Anna
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Units outside the University, Office of Labour Market Policy Evaluation.
    Vikström, Johan
    Uppsala University, Units outside the University, Office of Labour Market Policy Evaluation.
    How long and how much?: Learning about the design of wage subsidies from policy changes and discontinuities2015In: Labour Economics, ISSN 0927-5371, E-ISSN 1879-1034, Vol. 34, p. 127-137Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Employment and wage subsidies are used to combat long-term unemployment, yet there is little research to guide the design of such programs. Discontinuities and changes in the design and implementation of wage subsidies under the Swedish New Start Jobs-policy allow us to study effects of both subsidy rate and subsidy duration. We find that wage subsidies have substantial effect on job-finding rates for those eligible. The effect is stronger for larger subsidies and more than doubles as the length of the subsidy doubles. Although employment drops as subsidies expire, the probability of being employed remains higher for workers finding subsidized employment also after the expiry of the employment subsidies.

  • 9.
    van den Berg, Gerard J.
    et al.
    Univ Bristol, Bristol, Avon, England.
    Lundborg, Petter
    Lund Univ, Lund, Sweden.
    Vikström, Johan
    Uppsala University, Units outside the University, Office of Labour Market Policy Evaluation.
    The Economics of Grief2017In: Economic Journal, ISSN 0013-0133, E-ISSN 1468-0297, Vol. 127, no 604, p. 1794-1832Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We study the short-run and long-run economic impact of one of the largest losses that an individual can face; the death of a child. We utilise unique registers on the entire Swedish population, combining information on the date and cause of death with parental outcomes. We exploit the longitudinal dimension of the data and deal with several selection issues. Losing a child has adverse effects on labour income, employment status, marital status and hospitalisation. The value of policy measures aimed at preventing mortal accidents of children is underestimated if it does not take bereavement effects on parents into account.

  • 10.
    Vikström, Johan
    Uppsala University, Units outside the University, Office of Labour Market Policy Evaluation. Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Dynamic treatment assignment and evaluation of active labor market policies2017In: Labour Economics, ISSN 0927-5371, E-ISSN 1879-1034, Vol. 49, p. 42-54Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper considers treatment evaluation in a discrete time setting in which treatment can start at any point in time. We consider evaluation under unconfoundedness and propose a dynamic inverse probability weighting estimator. A typical application is an active labor market program that can start after any elapsed unemployment duration. The identification and estimation results concern both cases with one single treatment as well as sequences of programs. The new estimator is applied to Swedish data on participants in a training program and a work practice program. The work practice program increases re-employment rates. Most sequences of the two programs are inefficient when compared to one single program episode.

  • 11.
    Vikström, Johan
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Incentives and Norms in Social Insurance: Applications, Identification and Inference2009Doctoral thesis, monograph (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This thesis consists of five self-contained essays.

    Essay 1: (with Patrik Hesselius and Per Johansson) This essay tests if social work norms are important for work absence using a large scale randomised experiment. The treated in the experiment were exposed to less monitoring of their eligibility to collect sickness insurance benefits, which increased their non-monitored work absence. This exogenous variation is exploited in two ways. In a difference in differences analysis we exploit the variation in geographical proximity to the experiment among the non-treated. In an instrumental variables analysis we use the fact that the fraction of treated differs between immigrant networks. In both analyses we find significant, sizeable and robust social interaction effects.

    Essay 2: In this essay, the effect of employer incentives in social insurance on individual wages is estimated. Several studies have documented that employer incentives, in the form of experience rating, co-insurance or deductibles, could decrease social insurance usage. Such employer incentives may, though, have unintended side effects as they give employers incentives to transfer the costs to their workers, affecting individual wages. The individual wage effects are estimated using a reform in January 1992, which introduced an employer co-insurance system into the Swedish sickness absence insurance system. The analysis based on a long population panel database, including survey information on hourly wages, gives no support to any important individual wage effects from the co-insurance reform.

    Essay 3: (with Gerard J. van den Berg) Unemployment insurance systems typically include monitoring of unemployed workers and punitive sanctions if job search requirements are violated. This essay analyzes the effect of sanctions on the ensuing job quality, notably on wages and hours worked, and we examine how often a sanction leads to a change in occupation. The data cover the Swedish population over 1999-2004. We estimate duration models dealing with selection on unobservables. We use weighted exogenous sampling maximum likelihood to deal with the fact the data register is large whereas observed punishments are rare. We also develop a theoretical job search model with monitoring of job offer rejection versus monitoring of job search effort. We find that the hourly wage and the number of hours are lower after a sanction, and that individuals move more often to a lower occupational level, incurring human capital losses.

    Essay 4: This essay re-examines inference for cluster samples. Sensitivity analysis is proposed as a new method to perform inference when the number of groups is small. Based on estimations using disaggregated data, the sensitivity of the standard errors with respect to the variance of the cluster effects can be examined in order to distinguish a causal effect from random shocks. The method handles just-identified models. One important example of a just-identified model is the two groups and two time periods difference-in-differences setting. The method allows for different types of correlation over time and between groups in the cluster effects.

    Essay 5: (with Geert Ridder) In this essay, identification of average treatment effects on conditional transition probabilities is considered. We show that even under random assignment only certain average treatment effects are point identified, because treated and control units drop out at different rates so that the initial comparability of treatment and controls due to randomization no longer holds. We derive sharp bounds on dynamic average treatment effects that cannot be point identified. The bounds do not impose parametric restrictions, as e.g. proportional hazards, that would narrow the bounds or even allow for point identification. We also explore various weaker assumptions such as monotone treatment response and monotone exit rate.

  • 12.
    Vikström, Johan
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Units outside the University, Office of Labour Market Policy Evaluation.
    Ridder, Geert
    Univ Southern Calif, Dept Econ, Kaprielian Hall, Los Angeles, CA 90089 USA.
    Weidner, Martin
    CeMMAP, London, England;UCL, Dept Econ, Gower St, London WC1E 6BT, England.
    Bounds on treatment effects on transitions2018In: Journal of Econometrics, ISSN 0304-4076, E-ISSN 1872-6895, Vol. 205, no 2, p. 448-469Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper considers the identification of treatment effects on conditional transition probabilities. We show that even under random assignment only the instantaneous average treatment effect is point identified. Since treated and control units drop out at different rates, randomization only ensures the comparability of treatment and controls at the time of randomization, so that long-run average treatment effects are not point identified. Instead, we derive bounds on these average effects. Our bounds do not impose (semi)parametric restrictions, for example, proportional hazards. We also explore assumptions such as monotone treatment response, common shocks and positively correlated outcomes that tighten the bounds.

  • 13.
    Vikström, Johan
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Units outside the University, Office of Labour Market Policy Evaluation.
    Rosholm, Michael
    Svarer, Michael
    The effectiveness of active labor market policies: Evidence from a social experiment using non-parametric bounds2013In: Labour Economics, ISSN 0927-5371, E-ISSN 1879-1034, Vol. 24, p. 58-67Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We re-analyze the effects of a Danish active labor market programme social experiment, which included a range of sub-treatments, including meetings with caseworkers, job search assistance courses, and activation programmes. We use newly developed non-parametric methods to examine how the effects of the experimental treatment vary during the unemployment spell. Non-parametric techniques are important from a methodological point of view, since parametric/distributional assumptions are in conflict with the concept of experimental evidence. We find that the effects of the experiment vary substantially during the unemployment spell.

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