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  • 1.
    Brosché, Johan
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Brounéus, Karen
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Forsberg, Erika
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Hegre, Håvard
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Hultman, Lisa
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Höglund, Kristine
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Lindgren, Mathilda
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Melander, Erik
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Themnér, Anders
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Wallensteen, Peter
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Nio punkter för global fred (Nine Points for Global Peace)2015Other (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
    Abstract [sv]

    Insatserna för global fred måste stärkas skriver tolv företrädare för institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning apropå att världens ledare samlas i dag i New York för att anta 17 nya globala mål för en bättre värld och mer hållbar utveckling.

  • 2.
    Brosché, Johan
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Höglund, Kristine
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Electoral violence and the legacy of authoritarian rule in Kenya and Zambia2020In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 57, no 1, p. 111-125Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Why do the first multiparty elections after authoritarian rule turn violent in some countries but not in others? Thisarticle places legacies from the authoritarian past at the core of an explanation of when democratic openings becomeassociated with electoral violence in multi-ethnic states, and complement existing research focused on the immediateconditions surrounding the elections. We argue that authoritarian rule characterized by more exclusionary multiethniccoalitions creates legacies that amplify the risk of violent elections during the shift to multiparty politics.Through competitive and fragmented interethnic relations, exclusionary systems foreclose the forging of cross-ethnicelite coalitions and make hostile narratives a powerful tool for political mobilization. By contrast, regimes with abroad-based ethnic support base cultivate inclusive inter-elite bargaining, enable cross-ethnic coalitions, and reduceincentives for hostile ethnic mobilization, which lower the risk of violent elections. We explore this argument bycomparing founding elections in Zambia (1991), which were largely peaceful, and Kenya (1992), with large-scalestate-instigated electoral violence along ethnic lines. The analysis suggests that the type of authoritarian rule createdpolitical legacies that underpinned political competition and mobilization during the first multiparty elections, andmade violence a more viable electoral strategy in Kenya than in Zambia.

  • 3.
    Buhaug, H.
    et al.
    Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), Oslo; Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim.
    Nordkvelle, J.
    Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), Oslo.
    Bernauer, T.
    Center for Comparative and International Studies, ETH Zurich, Zurich.
    Böhmelt, T.
    Center for Comparative and International Studies, ETH Zurich, Zurich; Department of Government, University of Essex.
    Brzoska, M.
    University of Hamburg.
    Busby, J. W.
    Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs, University of Texas, Austin.
    Ciccone, A.
    University of Mannheim.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Gartzke, E.
    Department of Government, University of Essex.
    Gleditsch, N. P.
    Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), Oslo; Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim.
    Goldstone, J. A.
    Hegre, Håvard
    Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), Oslo.
    Holtermann, H.
    Koubi, V.
    Center for Comparative and International Studies, ETH Zurich, Zurich.
    Link, J. S. A.
    University of Hamburg.
    Link, P. M.
    University of Hamburg.
    Lujala, P.
    O'Loughlin, J.
    Raleigh, C.
    Scheffran, J.
    University of Hamburg.
    Schilling, J.
    University of Hamburg.
    Smith, T. G.
    Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs, University of Texas, Austin.
    Theisen, O. M.
    Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim.
    Tol, R. S. J.
    Urdal, H.
    Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), Oslo.
    von Uexküll, Nina
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    One effect to rule them all?: A comment on climate and conflict2014In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 127, no 3-4, p. 391-397Article in journal (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    A recent Climatic Change review article reports a remarkable convergence of scientific evidence for a link between climatic events and violent intergroup conflict, thus departing markedly from other contemporary assessments of the empirical literature. This commentary revisits the review in order to understand the discrepancy. We believe the origins of the disagreement can be traced back to the review article's underlying quantitative meta-analysis, which suffers from shortcomings with respect to sample selection and analytical coherence. A modified assessment that addresses some of these problems suggests that scientific research on climate and conflict to date has produced mixed and inconclusive results.

  • 4.
    Buhaug, Halvard
    et al.
    Peace Research Institute Oslo .
    Croicu, Mihai
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    von Uexkull, Nina
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    A conditional model of local income shock and civil conflict2020In: Journal of Politics, ISSN 0022-3816, E-ISSN 1468-2508Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Common political economy models point to rationalist motives for engaging in conflict but say little about how income shocks translate into collective violence in some cases but not in others. Grievance models, in contrast, focus on structural origins of shared frustration but offer less insight into when the deprived decide to challenge the status quo. Addressing these lacunae, we develop a theoretical model of civil conflict that predicts income loss to trigger violent mobilization primarily when the shock can be linked to pre-existing collective grievances. The conditional argument is supported by results of a comprehensive global statistical analysis of conflict involvement among ethnic groups. Consistent with theory, we find that this relationship is most powerful among recently downgraded groups, especially in the context of agricultural dependence and low local level of development, whereas political downgrading in the absence of adverse economic changes exerts less influence on ethnic conflict risk.

  • 5. Cil, Deniz
    et al.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Hultman, Lisa
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Mapping Blue Helmets: Introducing the Geocoded Peacekeeping Operations (Geo-PKO) Dataset2019In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 6.
    Davenport, Christian
    et al.
    Univ Michigan, Dept Polit Sci, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA;Peace Res Inst Oslo, N-0134 Oslo, Norway.
    Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv
    Peace Res Inst Oslo, N-0134 Oslo, Norway.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. Peace Res Inst Oslo, N-0134 Oslo, Norway.
    Armstrong, David
    Univ Western Ontario, Dept Polit Sci, London, ON N6A 5C2, Canada.
    The Consequences of Contention: Understanding the Aftereffects of Political Conflict and Violence2019In: Annual review of political science (Palo Alto, Calif. Print), ISSN 1094-2939, E-ISSN 1545-1577, Vol. 22, p. 361-377Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    What are the political and economic consequences of contention (i.e., genocide, civil war, state repression/human rights violation, terrorism, and protest)? Despite a significant amount of interest as well as quantitative research, the literature on this subject remains underdeveloped and imbalanced across topic areas. To date, investigations have been focused on particular forms of contention and specific consequences. While this research has led to some important insights, substantial limitations-as well as opportunities for future development-remain. In particular, there is a need for simultaneously investigating a wider range of consequences (beyond democracy and economic development), a wider range of contentious activity (beyond civil war, protest, and terrorism), a wider range of units of analysis (beyond the nation year), and a wider range of empirical approaches in order to handle particular difficulties confronting this type of inquiry (beyond ordinary least-squares regression). Only then will we have a better and more comprehensive understanding of what contention does and does not do politically and economically. This review takes stock of existing research and lays out an approach for looking at the problem using a more comprehensive perspective.

  • 7. de Soysa, Indra
    et al.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Is the hidden hand an iron fist?: Capitalism and civil peace, 1970-20052010In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 47, no 3, p. 287-298Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    There is surprisingly little empirical scholarship on the spread of capitalistic economic policies under the rubric of 'globalization' and domestic peace. While the classical liberals saw free markets leading to social harmony because of self-interest of individuals, who cooperate for profit, Marxists and others viewed markets as anarchical, requiring state intervention for obtaining justice and peace. The authors argue from an opportunity-cost perspective that the payoffs to rebellion are structured by how an economy is governed. Closed economies are likelier than more open ones to accumulate 'rebellion specific capital' because of high payoffs to organization in the shadows. Using an index of economic freedom that measures how free people are to transact in an economy, the authors find that countries more favorable to free enterprise have a reduced risk of civil war onsets, a result that is robust to the inclusion of institutional quality, per capita wealth, and sundry controls. The results hold up despite a battery of specification changes, alternative data, and testing methods. The findings do not suggest that states under conditions of capitalism lose their autonomy to provide the public good of peace, as skeptics of globalization claim. Peacemakers will do well to build institutions that reward productive investment over rent-seeking, alongside democratic institutions that ultimately gain their legitimacy on the back of good economic performance and well-functioning markets.

  • 8.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Authoritarian Regimes and Civil Conflict, 1974 - 20042007In: Standing Group of International Relations, European Consortium of Political Research, Turin, Italy, 12-15 September, 2007Conference paper (Other (popular scientific, debate etc.))
  • 9.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Authoritarian Regimes and Civil Conflict, 1974 - 20042007In: Jan Tinbergen Conference, Network of European Peace Scientists, Amsterdam, June, 2007Conference paper (Other (popular scientific, debate etc.))
  • 10.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Farming or Fighting?: Agricultural Price Shocks and Civil War in Africa2015In: World Development, ISSN 0305-750X, E-ISSN 1873-5991, Vol. 67, p. 525-534Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article links lower economic returns in the labor-intensive agricultural sector to a higher risk of armed conflict at the local level. It argues that income shocks, followed by rising unemployment and lower wages in the rural economy, facilitate rebel recruitment and strengthen civilian support for rebel movements. Focusing on Africa, the article introduces a location-specific measure of changes to the value of local agricultural output by combining sub-national crop production maps with data on movements in global agricultural prices. The results show that negative changes to the local agricultural price index significantly and substantially increase the risk of violent events.

  • 11.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    Uppsala University.
    Is There and Autocratic Civil Peace?: Authoritarian Regimes and Civil Conflict, 1974 -20042007In: 41st meeting of the Peace Science Society International, South Carolina, 2-4 November, 2007Conference paper (Other (popular scientific, debate etc.))
  • 12.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Orsaker till krig och väpnade konflikter2012In: Om krig och fred: En introduktion till freds- och konfliktstudier / [ed] Karin Aggestam & Kristine Höglund, Lund: Studentlitteratur, 2012, p. 83-96Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 13.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Sub-National Determinants of Non-State Conflicts in Nigeria, 1991-20062009Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Existing literature on non-state conflict tends to either focus on issues of resource scarcity or on ethnic/religious divisions. Largely overlooked in the empirical literature is the issue of how governance influences the risk that non-state actors take up arms against each other. This paper addresses this issue by examining the occurrence of non-state armed conflicts in Nigeria, claiming more than 7000 lives between 1991 and 2006. I suggest that at the macro level, the government’s strategy of replacing conventional state capacity with a centralized patronage sys- tem, based on purchasing political restraint, explains the proliferation of inter-group violence. Based on the interpretation of non-state conflicts as an expression of institutionalized rent- seeking, I derive testable hypotheses regarding where within a country such conflicts are most likely to occur. Utilizing GIS software and new, unique event based data at the sub-national level in Nigeria, the paper explores local determinants of non-state conflicts. The results lend some support to the notion that non-state actors fight both over wealth and over the political access that secure access to such wealth.

  • 14.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Transnational Dimensions of African Civil Wars and the Triple-R Framework2012In: From Intra-State War to Durable Peace: conflict and Its Resolution in Africa after the Cold War / [ed] Thomas Ohlson, Dordrecht: Republic of Letters Publishing, 2012Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 15.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    de Soysa, Indra
    Norwegian University of Technology and Science, Trondheim.
    Bullying or Buying?: State Extractive Capacity, Public Spending and Civil Peace 1961 - 19992007In: 48th Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, Chicago, USA 28 Feb - 3 March, 2007Conference paper (Other (popular scientific, debate etc.))
  • 16.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Hegre, Håvard
    International Peace Research Institute, Oslo.
    Democracy Depraved.: Corruption and Institutional Change 1985–20002007In: 48th Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, Chicago, USA 28 Feb - 3 March, 2007Conference paper (Other (popular scientific, debate etc.))
  • 17.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. Peace Research Institute Oslo.
    Hegre, Håvard
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. Peace Research Institute Oslo.
    Political Corruption and Institutional Stability2014In: Studies in comparative international development, ISSN 0039-3606, E-ISSN 1936-6167, Vol. 49, no 3, p. 267-299Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article is the first to statistically examine the reciprocal relationship between formal political institutions and political corruption. We argue that political corruption is an informal institution that allows nondemocratic leaders to build political support, act as a substitute for liberalizing concessions in the formal institutions of the state, and thereby extends the longevity of non-democratic regimes. Yet, whereas high corruption level will prevail in nondemocratic regimes, we expect the electoral constituency in democratic regimes to have the formal power to curb political corruption. We demonstrate that these expectations hold by estimating a dynamic multinomial regression model on data for 133 countries for the 1985-2008 period. Our model shows that high-corruption autocracies and hybrid regimes are more stable than their low-corruption counterparts, but that low-corruption democracies are more stable than high-corruption ones. For autocratic and hybrid regimes, the stability is due both to corruption making the formal institutions more resistant to democratization and that the formal institutions prevent reductions in corruption. Consistent democracies, on the other hand, are able to reduce corruption and become more stable as a result.

  • 18.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Hultman, Lisa
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Weakening the Enemy: A Disaggregated Study of Violence against Civilians in Africa2014In: Journal of Conflict Resolution, ISSN 0022-0027, E-ISSN 1552-8766, Vol. 58, no 7, p. 1230-1257Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    While case-based narratives from civil wars often stress the ethnic dimension of civilian atrocities, cross-national studies have found limited evidence in support of such contentions. Addressing this debate, we argue that warring actors often use ethnic affiliation to identify groups of suspected enemy supporters when individual wartime affiliations are not known. Since warring actors depend on their civilian constituencies for support, collective targeting of the enemy's co-ethnics becomes a strategy for weakening the enemy's capacity. Armed actors are thus more likely to engage in civilian abuse in areas where the enemy's ethnic constituency resides. To examine this argument, we combine new georeferenced event data on violence against civilians in African conflicts, 1989-2009, with spatial data on the location of the warring actors' ethnic constituencies. The analysis shows that the number of civilians killed by both governments and rebel groups is higher in areas inhabited by the enemy's ethnic constituency.

  • 19.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Hultman, Lisa
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Lindberg Bromley, Sara
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Offsetting Losses: Bargaining Power and Rebel Attacks on Peacekeepers2016In: International Studies Quarterly, ISSN 0020-8833, E-ISSN 1468-2478, Vol. 60, no 4, p. 611-623Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In recent years, international third parties have increasingly sought to manage the dire consequences of civil war, often by deploying peacekeeping operations. However, peacekeepers sometimes face deliberate attacks by armed groups. These attacks hamper efforts to provide humanitarian relief and security. This raises a critical question: what factors lead rebel groups to target peacekeepers? We argue that internal conflict dynamics are important for explaining this phenomenon. Rebels attack peacekeepers as an alternative strategy to undermine incumbent regimes. They adopt this strategy as the balance of power turns against them in their struggle against governments. We evaluate our argument using a novel event data set on violent attacks on peacekeepers in sub-Saharan Africa from 1989 to 2009. We find a positive relationship between rebel losses and violent attacks on peacekeepers. These findings hold when controlling for mission-specific characteristics, time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity, and across different model specifications.

  • 20.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Hultman, Lisa
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Protection through Presence: UN Peacekeeping and the Costs of Targeting Civilians2019In: International Organization, ISSN 0020-8183, E-ISSN 1531-5088, Vol. 73, no 1, p. 103-131Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Are UN peacekeepers effective in protecting civilians from violence? Existing studies examine this issue at the country level, thereby making it difficult to isolate the effect of peacekeepers and to assess the actual mechanism at work. We provide the first comprehensive evaluation of UN peacekeeping success in protecting civilians at the subnational level. We argue that peacekeepers through their sizable local presence can increase the political and military costs for warring actors to engage in civilian targeting. Since peacekeepers’ access to civilian populations rests on government consent, peacekeepers will primarily be effective in imposing these costs on rebel groups, but less so for government actors. To test these conjectures we combine new monthly data on the location of peacekeepers with data on the location and timing of civilian killings in Africa. Our findings suggest that local peacekeeping presence enhances the effectiveness of civilian protection against rebel abuse, but that UN peacekeeping struggles to protect civilians from government forces.

  • 21.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Hultman, Lisa
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Schubiger, Livia
    Hug, Simon
    Cederman, Lars-Erik
    Sollenberg, Margareta
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Introducing the Ethnic One-Sided Violence Dataset2019In: Conflict Management and Peace Science, ISSN 0738-8942, E-ISSN 1549-9219Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 22.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Höglund, Kristine
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Building Peace, Creating Conflict?2011In: Building Peace, Creating Conflict?: Conflictual Dimensions of Local and International Peacebuilding / [ed] Hanne Fjelde and Kristine Höglund, Lund: Nordic Academic Press , 2011, p. 11-24Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 23.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Höglund, KristineUppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Building peace, creating conflict?: conflictual dimensions of local and international peace-building2011Collection (editor) (Other academic)
  • 24.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Höglund, Kristine
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Electoral Institutions and Electoral Violence in Sub-Saharan Africa2016In: British Journal of Political Science, ISSN 0007-1234, E-ISSN 1469-2112, Vol. 46, no 2, p. 297-320Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Political violence remains a pervasive feature of electoral dynamics in many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, even where multiparty elections have become the dominant mode of regulating access to political power. With cross-national data on electoral violence in Sub-Saharan African elections between 1990 and 2010, this article develops and tests a theory that links the use of violent electoral tactics to the high stakes put in place by majoritarian electoral institutions. It is found that electoral violence is more likely in countries that employ majoritarian voting rules and elect fewer legislators from each district. Majoritarian institutions are, as predicted by theory, particularly likely to provoke violence where large ethno-political groups are excluded from power and significant economic inequalities exist.

  • 25.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Höglund, Kristine
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Ethnic Politics and Elite Competition: The Roots of Electoral Violence in Kenya2018In: Violence in African Elections: Between Democracy and Big Man Politics / [ed] Mimmi Söderberg Kovacs; Jesper Bjarnesen, London: Zed Books, 2018, 1, p. 27-46Chapter in book (Refereed)
  • 26.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Rebels against Rebels: Explaining Violence between Rebel Groups2012In: Journal of Conflict Resolution, ISSN 0022-0027, E-ISSN 1552-8766, Vol. 56, no 4, p. 604-628Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Rebel groups that confront the government frequently become engaged in fierce and violent struggles with other groups. Why does a rebel group who is already fighting with the government become engaged in yet another struggle, thereby sacrificing scarce resources in the fight against other rebel groups? This article addresses this puzzle by providing the first global study on the determinants of interrebel violence. The authors argue that this violence should be understood as a means to secure material resources and political leverage that can help the group prevail in the conflict with the government. The quantitative analysis builds on new data on armed conflict between nonstate actors, 1989-2007. The results show that interrebel conflict is more likely when the rebel group fights in an area with drug cultivation, when the group is in control of territory beyond government reach, when the group is either militarily strong or weak in relation to other rebels, and where state authority is weak.

  • 27.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. PRIO, Oslo, Norway.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    The Rise of Rebel Contenders: Barriers to entry and fragmentation in civil wars2018In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 55, no 5, p. 551-565Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 28.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    von Uexkull, Nina
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Climate triggers: Rainfall anomalies, vulnerability and communal conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa2012In: Political Geography, ISSN 0962-6298, E-ISSN 1873-5096, Vol. 31, no 7, p. 444-453Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The mounting evidence for climate change has put the security implications of increased climate variability high on the agenda of policymakers. However, several years of research have produced no consensus regarding whether climate variability increases the risk of armed conflict. Many have suggested that instead of outright civil war, climate variability is likely to heighten the risk of communal conflict. In particular, erratic rainfall, which reduces the availability of water and arable land, could create incentives for violent attacks against other communities to secure access to scarce resources. Yet, whether groups resort to violence in the face of environmentally induced hardship is likely to depend on the availability of alternative coping mechanisms, for example through market transfers or state accommodation. This suggests that the effect of rainfall anomalies on communal conflict will be stronger in the presence of economic and political marginalization. We evaluate these arguments statistically, utilizing a disaggregated dataset combining rainfall data with geo-referenced events data on the occurrence of communal conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa between 1990 and 2008. Our results suggest that large negative deviations in rainfall from the historical norm are associated with a higher risk of communal conflict. There is some evidence that the effect of rainfall shortages on the risk of communal conflict is amplified in regions inhabited by politically excluded ethno-political groups.

  • 29.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Østby, Gudrun
    Socioeconomic Inequality and Communal Conflict: A Disaggregated Analysis of Sub-Saharan Africa, 1990-20082014In: International Interactions, ISSN 0305-0629, E-ISSN 1547-7444, Vol. 40, no 5, p. 737-762Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article examines the role of economic inequality in influencing the risk of armed conflict between communal groups in Sub-Saharan Africa. We argue that socioeconomic inequality can generate intergroup grievances, which, due to the exclusionary legitimacy of the African state and elite incentives to engage in competitive mobilization of communal groups, precipitate violent communal conflict. To examine this argument, we rely on a series of household surveys to construct subnational inequality measures. For each region, we calculate measures of inequality in terms of household welfare and education between individuals (vertical inequality) and between ethnic groups (horizontal inequality). Combining the inequality data with new georeferenced data on communal conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa for the period 1990-2008, we find that regions with strong socioeconomic inequalities-both vertical and horizontal-are significantly more exposed to violent communal conflicts. More specifically, regions in which the largest ethnic group is severely disadvantaged compared to other groups are particularly prone to experience communal conflict.

  • 30.
    Hegre, Håvard
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO).
    Allansson, Marie
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Basedau, Matthias
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    Colaresi, Michael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. University of Pittsburgh.
    Croicu, Mihai
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Hoyles, Frederick
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Hultman, Lisa
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Högbladh, Stina
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Jansen, Remco
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Mouhleb, Naima
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Muhammad, Sayyed Auwn
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO).
    Olafsdottir, Gudlaug
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Petrova, Kristina
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Randahl, David
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Rød, Espen Geelmuyden
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Schneider, Gerald
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. University of Konstanz.
    von Uexkull, Nina
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Vestby, Jonas
    ViEWS: A political violence early-warning system2019In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 56, no 2, p. 155-174Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article presents ViEWS – a political violence early-warning system that seeks to be maximally transparent, publicly available, and have uniform coverage, and sketches the methodological innovations required to achieve these objectives. ViEWS produces monthly forecasts at the country and subnational level for 36 months into the future and all three UCDP types of organized violence: state-based conflict, non-state conflict, and one-sided violence in Africa. The article presents the methodology and data behind these forecasts, evaluates their predictive performance, provides selected forecasts for October 2018 through October 2021, and indicates future extensions. ViEWS is built as an ensemble of constituent models designed to optimize its predictions. Each of these represents a theme that the conflict research literature suggests is relevant, or implements a specific statistical/machine-learning approach. Current forecasts indicate a persistence of conflict in regions in Africa with a recent history of political violence but also alert to new conflicts such as in Southern Cameroon and Northern Mozambique. The subsequent evaluation additionally shows that ViEWS is able to accurately capture the long-term behavior of established political violence, as well as diffusion processes such as the spread of violence in Cameroon. The performance demonstrated here indicates that ViEWS can be a useful complement to non-public conflict-warning systems, and also serves as a reference against which future improvements can be evaluated.

  • 31.
    Hegre, Håvard
    et al.
    Universitetet i Oslo.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Post-Conflict Democracy and Conflict Recurrence2010In: Peace and Conflict 2010 / [ed] J. Joseph Hewitt, JonaJ. Joseph Hewitt, Jonathan Wilkenfeld, Ted Robert Gurrthan Wilkenfeld & Ted Robert Gurr, London: Paradigm Publishers , 2010, 1, p. 79-90Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 32.
    Höglund, Kristine
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Fredslobotomi eller hållbar demokrati?: Kenyas framtid osäker trots fredliga val2013In: Internationella Studier, ISSN 0020-952X, no 2, p. 10-12Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 33. Knutsen, Carl Henrik
    et al.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Property rights in dictatorships: kings protect property better than generals or party bosses2013In: Contemporary Politics, ISSN 1356-9775, E-ISSN 1469-3631, Vol. 19, no 1, p. 94-114Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper investigates whether types of dictatorships differ systematically when it comes to the protection of property rights. Differentiating between monarchies, military regimes, one-party and multiparty autocracies, the paper argues that different dictatorial institutions create different incentives to protect property and enforce contracts by influencing the time horizon of the ruling elite. Where rulers fear losing power and regime insiders are uncertain about their own political survival beyond the dictator, expropriation of property is more likely to take place. The paper reports evidence that monarchic autocracies protect property rights relatively well compared to other types of dictatorships, and even when compared to democracies was found. In these regimes, dynastic succession and certainty about the composition of the future elite provide rulers with relatively long time horizons for their dynasties, reducing incentives to expropriate property for short-term gain.

  • 34.
    Opitz, Christian
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Höglund, Kristine
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Including Peace: The Influence of Electoral Management Bodies on Electoral Violence2013In: Journal of Eastern African Studies, ISSN 1753-1055, E-ISSN 1753-1063, Vol. 7, no 4, p. 713-731Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    What accounts for the difference between peaceful and violent elections in semi-authoritarian countries? This article analyses the influence of electoral management bodies (EMBs) on the likelihood of widespread violence triggered by opposition protest during election times. It is argued that by establishing inclusive and collaborative relationships through which political actors can jointly negotiate important electoral issues, EMBs influence the incentive structure of the major stakeholders in favour of non-violent strategies. The relationship is explored by comparing elections in Malawi (2004), Ethiopia (2005) and Zanzibar (2005). The analysis supports the idea that inclusive EMBs, rather than legal independence, are critical to guarantee the influence of the opposition in order to address both their interests and their mistrust of electoral politics.

  • 35.
    Sandbrook, Chris
    et al.
    World Conservat Monitoring Ctr, United Nations Environm Programme, 219 Huntingdon Rd, Cambridge CB3 0DL, England..
    Fjelde, Hanne
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Setten, Gunhild
    Norwegian Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Geog, NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway..
    Transboundary Conservation and Conflict2016In: Norsk Geografisk Tidsskrift, ISSN 0029-1951, E-ISSN 1502-5292, Vol. 70, no 2, p. 127-128Article, book review (Other academic)
  • 36.
    Strasheim, Julia
    et al.
    GIGA.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Pre-designing democracy: Institutional Design of Interim Governments and Democratization in 15 Post-Conflict Societies2014In: Democratization, ISSN 1351-0347, E-ISSN 1743-890X, Vol. 21, no 2, p. 335-358Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Does the institutional design of interim governments influence post-conflict democratization? Based on the logic of political engineering we examine whether designing interim regimes to incorporate inclusive representation of all warring parties, constraints on executive power, and decentralized governance enhances the prospects of post-conflict democratization. By analysing 15 interim regimes between 1989 and 2006, we find that while inclusiveness is not associated with democratization, executive constraints and decentralization are. These results point to the importance of establishing institutions that diffuse political power and reduce the zero-sum character of the political contest during transition.

  • 37.
    von Uexkull, Nina
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. Peace Res Inst Oslo, NO-0134 Oslo, Norway..
    Croicu, Mihai
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. Peace Res Inst Oslo, NO-0134 Oslo, Norway..
    Buhaug, Halvard
    Peace Res Inst Oslo, NO-0134 Oslo, Norway.;Norwegian Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Sociol & Polit Sci, NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway..
    Civil conflict sensitivity to growing-season drought2016In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, ISSN 0027-8424, E-ISSN 1091-6490, Vol. 113, no 44, p. 12391-12396Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    To date, the research community has failed to reach a consensus on the nature and significance of the relationship between climate variability and armed conflict. We argue that progress has been hampered by insufficient attention paid to the context in which droughts and other climatic extremes may increase the risk of violent mobilization. Addressing this shortcoming, this study presents an actor-oriented analysis of the drought-conflict relationship, focusing specifically on politically relevant ethnic groups and their sensitivity to growing-season drought under various political and socioeconomic contexts. To this end, we draw on new conflict event data that cover Asia and Africa, 1989-2014, updated spatial ethnic settlement data, and remote sensing data on agricultural land use. Our procedure allows quantifying, for each ethnic group, drought conditions during the growing season of the locally dominant crop. A comprehensive set of multilevel mixed effects models that account for the groups' livelihood, economic, and political vulnerabilities reveals that a drought under most conditions has little effect on the short-term risk that a group challenges the state by military means. However, for agriculturally dependent groups as well as politically excluded groups in very poor countries, a local drought is found to increase the likelihood of sustained violence. We interpret this as evidence of the reciprocal relationship between drought and conflict, whereby each phenomenon makes a group more vulnerable to the other.

1 - 37 of 37
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