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  • 1.
    Ameli, Ali A.
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Univ Saskatchewan, Global Inst Water Secur, Saskatoon, SK, Canada.;Western Univ, Dept Biol, London, ON, Canada.
    Beven, Keith
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Univ Lancaster, Lancaster Environm Ctr, Lancaster, England..
    Erlandsson, Martin
    Stockholm Univ, Dept Phys Geog, Stockholm, Sweden..
    Creed, Irena F.
    Western Univ, Dept Biol, London, ON, Canada..
    McDonnell, Jeffrey J.
    Univ Saskatchewan, Global Inst Water Secur, Saskatoon, SK, Canada.;Univ Aberdeen, Sch Geosci, Aberdeen, Scotland.;Oregon State Univ, Dept Forest Engn Resources & Management, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA..
    Bishop, Kevin
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Swedish Univ Agr Sci, Dept Aquat Sci & Assessment, Uppsala, Sweden..
    Primary weathering rates, water transit times, and concentration-discharge relations: A theoretical analysis for the critical zone2017In: Water resources research, ISSN 0043-1397, E-ISSN 1944-7973, Vol. 53, no 1, p. 942-960Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The permeability architecture of the critical zone exerts a major influence on the hydrogeochemistry of the critical zone. Water flow path dynamics drive the spatiotemporal pattern of geochemical evolution and resulting streamflow concentration-discharge (C-Q) relation, but these flow paths are complex and difficult to map quantitatively. Here we couple a new integrated flow and particle tracking transport model with a general reversible Transition State Theory style dissolution rate law to explore theoretically how C-Q relations and concentration in the critical zone respond to decline in saturated hydraulic conductivity (K-s) with soil depth. We do this for a range of flow rates and mineral reaction kinetics. Our results show that for minerals with a high ratio of equilibrium concentration ( Ceq) to intrinsic weathering rate ( Rmax), vertical heterogeneity in K-s enhances the gradient of weathering-derived solute concentration in the critical zone and strengthens the inverse stream C-Q relation. As <mml:mfrac>CeqRmax</mml:mfrac> decreases, the spatial distribution of concentration in the critical zone becomes more uniform for a wide range of flow rates, and stream C-Q relation approaches chemostatic behavior, regardless of the degree of vertical heterogeneity in K-s. These findings suggest that the transport-controlled mechanisms in the hillslope can lead to chemostatic C-Q relations in the stream while the hillslope surface reaction-controlled mechanisms are associated with an inverse stream C-Q relation. In addition, as <mml:mfrac>CeqRmax</mml:mfrac> decreases, the concentration in the critical zone and stream become less dependent on groundwater age (or transit time).

  • 2.
    Beven, K
    et al.
    Environmental Science/Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster Univ., Lancaster LA1 4YQ, UK.
    Zhang, D R
    Key Lab. of Water Resources Development, Hohai Univ., Nanjing, China.
    Mermoud, A
    Institute of Environmental Science and Technology, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, ISTE/HYDRAM, ENAC, EPFL, Lausanne, Switzerland.
    On the value of local measurements for prediction of pesticide transport at the field scale2006In: Vadose Zone Journal, ISSN 1539-1663, E-ISSN 1539-1663, Vol. 5, no 1, p. 222-233Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Pesticide transport through the soil profile at the field scale is notoriously difficult to predict because of a lack of appropriate field-scale models and model parameters that take adequate account of heterogeneity in local flow rates and parameters. It is generally impossible to measure all the parameters required to describe that heterogeneity. A way of approximating pesticide transport at the field scale, given uncertainty in the representation of both local characteristics and field-scale distributions, is presented. The methodology allows prior estimates of field-scale distribution parameters to be conditioned on uncertain column-scale measurements. It is shown how this conditioning can drastically constrain steady-state flow predictions of atrazine (2-chloro-4-ethylamino-6-isopropylamino-1,3,5-triazine) transport to groundwater for a site in the Rhone Valley, Switzerland. Some of the simplifying assumptions of the current analysis, in particular, to allow for transient simulations, can be relaxed in the future as more computer power becomes available. The methodology, however, should remain valid.

  • 3.
    Beven, Keith
    Institute of Environmental & Natural Sciences, Lancaster University, UK.
    A manifesto for the equifinality thesis2006In: Journal of Hydrology, ISSN 0022-1694, E-ISSN 1879-2707, Vol. 320, no 1-2, p. 18-36Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This essay discusses some of the issues involved in the identification and predictions of hydrological models given some calibration data. The reasons for the incompleteness of traditional calibration methods are discussed. The argument is made that the potential for multiple acceptable models as representations of hydrological and other environmental systems (the equifinality thesis) should be given more serious consideration than hitherto. It proposes some techniques for an extended GLUE methodology to make it more rigorous and outlines some of the research issues still to be resolved. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved.

  • 4.
    Beven, Keith
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Univ Lancaster, Lancaster Environm Ctr, Lancaster, England..
    Advice to a young hydrologist2016In: Hydrological Processes, ISSN 0885-6087, E-ISSN 1099-1085, Vol. 30, no 20, p. 3578-3582Article in journal (Other academic)
  • 5.
    Beven, Keith
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Causal models as multiple working hypotheses about environmental processes2012In: Comptes rendus Geoscience, ISSN 1631-0713, E-ISSN 1778-7025, Vol. 344, no 2, p. 77-88Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The environmental modeller faces a dilemma. Science often demands that more and more process representations are incorporated into models (particularly to avoid the possibility of making missing process errors in predicting future response). Testing the causal representations in environmental models (as multiple working hypotheses about the functioning of environmental systems) then depends on specifying boundary conditions and model parameters adequately. This will always be difficult in applications to a real system because of the heterogeneities, non-stationarities, complexities and epistemic uncertainties inherent in environmental prediction. Thus, it can be difficult to define the information content of a data set used in model evaluation and any consequent measures of belief or verisimilitude. A limit of acceptability approach to model evaluation is suggested as a way of testing models, implying that thought is required to define critical experiments that will allow models as hypotheses to be adequately differentiated. (C) 2012 Published by Elsevier Masson SAS on behalf of Academie des sciences.

  • 6.
    Beven, Keith
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Univ Lancaster, Lancaster Environm Ctr, Lancaster, England..
    Facets of uncertainty: epistemic uncertainty, non-stationarity, likelihood, hypothesis testing, and communication2016In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 61, no 9, p. 1652-1665Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper presents a discussion of some of the issues associated with the multiple sources of uncertainty and non-stationarity in the analysis and modelling of hydrological systems. Different forms of aleatory, epistemic, semantic, and ontological uncertainty are defined. The potential for epistemic uncertainties to induce disinformation in calibration data and arbitrary non-stationarities in model error characteristics, and surprises in predicting the future, are discussed in the context of other forms of non-stationarity. It is suggested that a condition tree is used to be explicit about the assumptions that underlie any assessment of uncertainty. This also provides an audit trail for providing evidence to decision makers.

  • 7.
    Beven, Keith
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    ‘Here we have a system in which liquid water is moving; let's just get at the physics of it’ (Penman 1965)2014In: Hydrology Research, ISSN 2224-7955, Vol. 45, no 6, p. 727-736Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper is based on the 2012 Penman Lecture delivered at the 11th National Symposium of the British Hydrological Society. The title is taken from a 1965 interview by Howard Penman when hydrological modelling was just really starting. In the period since then, the idea that we might easily move towards ‘physically based’ representations of hydrological processes has proven problematic. It is argued that this might best be done within a hypotheses testing framework, where the hypotheses are the model representations of processes over some discrete elements of a catchment, integrating the small-scale variability within those elements. This might still require some distribution function to reflect that variability, since the extremes of the variability might be important in controlling the response. Hypotheses will need to be formulated that reflect the interaction of the water flow pathways and the biota. Testing of those hypotheses will require a proper account of the uncertainties inherent in the study of hydrological systems, including a recognition that many sources of uncertainty are epistemic in nature rather than simple random variability. Such uncertainties will only be significantly reduced by the development of new measurement techniques that provide useful information at the element scales of interest.

  • 8.
    Beven, Keith
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    On doing better hydrological science2008In: Hydrological Processes, ISSN 0885-6087, E-ISSN 1099-1085, Vol. 22, no 17, p. 3549-3553Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 9.
    Beven, Keith
    Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK.
    On undermining the science?2006In: Hydrological Processes, ISSN 0885-6087, E-ISSN 1099-1085, Vol. 20, no 14, p. 3141-3146Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 10.
    Beven, Keith
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Preferential flows and travel time distributions: defining adequate hypothesis tests for hydrological process models2010In: Hydrological Processes, ISSN 0885-6087, E-ISSN 1099-1085, Vol. 24, no 12, p. 1537-1547Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This introduction to the second annual review issue of Hydrological Processes tries to put the collection of papers on preferential flows and travel time distributions into a more general context of testing models as hypotheses about how catchment systems function. It is suggested that, because of the possibilities of non-stationary and epistemic errors in both data and models, such tests could be carried out within a rejectionist limits-of-acceptability framework. The principles and difficulties of hypothesis testing within these particular research areas are discussed. An important point to take from this discussion is that the use of a formal testing framework, and the consequent rejection of models as hypotheses after allowing for uncertainties in the data, is the starting point for developing better theories and data sets. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  • 11.
    Beven, Keith
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Searching for the Holy Grail of scientific hydrology: Q(t) = H((S)under-left-arrow, (R)under-left-arrow, Delta t)A as closure2006In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, ISSN 1027-5606, E-ISSN 1607-7938, Vol. 10, no 5, p. 609-618Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Representative Elementary Watershed concepts provide a useful scale-independent framework for the representation of hydrological processes. The balance equations that underlie the concepts, however, require the definition of boundary flux closures that should be expected to be scale dependent. The relationship between internal state variables of an REW element and the boundary fluxes will be nonlinear, hysteretic and scale-dependent and may depend on the extremes of the heterogeneities within the REW. Because of the nonlinearities involved, simple averaging of local scale flux relationships are unlikely to produce an adequate description of the closure problem at the REW scale. Hysteresis in the dynamic response is demonstrated for some small experimental catchments and it is suggested that at least some of this hysteresis can be represented by the use of simple transfer functions. The search for appropriate closure schemes is the second most important problem in hydrology of the 21st Century (the most important is providing the techniques to measure integrated fluxes and storages at useful scales). The closure problem is a scientific Holy Grail: worth searching for even if a general solution might ultimate prove impossible to find.

  • 12.
    Beven, Keith
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    So how much of your error is epistemic? Lessons from Japan and Italy2013In: Hydrological Processes, ISSN 0885-6087, E-ISSN 1099-1085, Vol. 27, no 11, p. 1677-1680Article in journal (Other academic)
  • 13.
    Beven, Keith
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    What we see now: Event-persistence and the predictability of hydro-eco-geomorphological systems2015In: Ecological Modelling, ISSN 0304-3800, E-ISSN 1872-7026, Vol. 298, no SI, p. 4-15Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    What we see now in the landscape is the result of a long history of events with varying degrees of persistence. We have only limited access to much of that history and we know that many current events have only a minimal impact on what we see. Even rather extreme events may have impacts that are not very long-lasting but can have the effect of changing the antecedent states for future events. That means that sampling of sequences of events might be important in understanding the evolution of the catchments. In some cases, however, extreme events can have an impact on the system that persists over hundreds or thousands of years. Any evolution of the landscape is then constrained by those past events, however much it might be also constrained by self-organisational principles. It might be difficult to verify those principles given the epistemic uncertainties about past histories and system properties that are generic to the studies that are possible within a research project or career. These arguments are investigated in a simple slab model of landslip failures in a hillslope hollow subject to stochastic forcing over long periods of time. The complementarity of an event-persistence approach to hydro-eco-geomorphological systems is captured in suggestions for future research questions.

  • 14.
    Beven, Keith
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Buytaert, Wouter
    Smith, Leonard A.
    On virtual observatories and modelled realities: (or why discharge must be treated as a virtual variable)2012In: Hydrological Processes, ISSN 0885-6087, E-ISSN 1099-1085, Vol. 26, no 12, p. 1905-1908Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 15.
    Beven, Keith
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Cloke, Hannah L.
    Department of Geography, King's College London, London, UK.
    Comment on ‘‘Hyperresolution global land surface modeling: Meeting a grand challenge for monitoring Earth’s terrestrial water’’ by Eric F. Wood et al.2012In: Water resources research, ISSN 0043-1397, E-ISSN 1944-7973, Vol. 48, p. W01801-Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 16.
    Beven, Keith
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Univ Lancaster, Lancaster Environm Ctr, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, England.;Univ Lausanne, IDYST, Lausanne, Switzerland..
    Davies, Jess
    Univ Lancaster, Lancaster Environm Ctr, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, England..
    Velocities, celerities and the basin of attraction in catchment response2015In: Hydrological Processes, ISSN 0885-6087, E-ISSN 1099-1085, Vol. 29, no 25, p. 5214-5226Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Catchment systems are interestingly nonlinear, but their dynamics are constrained from being unduly chaotic by mass and energy balance requirements. There have been no attempts in hydrology that we know of that have tried to map both the flow and transport dynamics of a catchment in any form of phase space. In part, this is because of the high dimensionality of the space-time patterns of response; in part because there is sufficient uncertainty about the input and output fluxes estimated by measurement that this might be expected to obscure any attractor-like behaviour. In this study we explore the basin of the catchment attractor for the Multiple Interacting Pathway (MIPs) model that in previous papers has been shown to give good results for the small Gardsjon catchment in Sweden. MIPs is based on particle tracking techniques and gives results for both the flow responses and for the travel and residence time responses of water in the catchment. Here it is used to provide consistent values of fluxes, total storage, travel time distributions and residence time distributions for a long simulation period. The nature of those responses in storage and input dimensions is then investigated. The results suggest that the range of behaviours is hysteretic in interesting ways and constrained by the forcing inputs, with space filling of trajectories in the basin of attraction as should be expected of a forced dissipative system. The range of behaviours exhibited defines a space that the responses of any simpler emulator model will need to span.

  • 17.
    Beven, Keith
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Germann, Peter
    Macropores and water flow in soils revisited2013In: Water resources research, ISSN 0043-1397, E-ISSN 1944-7973, Vol. 49, no 6, p. 3071-3092Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The original review of macropores and water flow in soils by Beven and Germann is now 30 years old and has become one of the most highly cited papers in hydrology. This paper attempts to review the progress in observations and theoretical reasoning about preferential soil water flows over the intervening period. It is suggested that the topic has still not received the attention that its importance deserves, in part because of the ready availability of software packages rooted firmly in the Richards domain, albeit that there is convincing evidence that this may be predicated on the wrong experimental method for natural conditions. There is still not an adequate physical theory linking all types of flow, and there are still not adequate observational techniques to support the scale dependent parameterizations that will be required at practical field and hillslope scales of application. Some thoughts on future needs to develop a more comprehensive representation of soil water flows are offered.

  • 18. Beven, Keith J.
    Uncertainty in Predictions of Floods and Hydraulic Transport2007In: Transport phenomena in hydraulics / [ed] Rowiński, Paweł, Warszawa: Institute of Geophysics , 2007, p. 5-20Chapter in book (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper provides a review of work within the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology on estimating uncertainties in predicting flood frequency, flood inundation, and hydraulic transport of solutes in rivers and soils. The issue of prediction uncertainty as an input decision making is also discussed. It is concluded that in real applications it is unlikely that a fully objective approach to uncertainty estimation is possible. It is therefore important that the assumptions made are stated explicitly so that they can be agreed or disputed with the users of the resulting predictions. It is also important that the modelling process be considered as a learning process of constraining uncertainty by adding new information.

  • 19.
    Beven, Keith J.
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Alcock, Ruth E.
    Modelling everything everywhere: a new approach to decision-making for water management under uncertainty2012In: Freshwater Biology, ISSN 0046-5070, E-ISSN 1365-2427, Vol. 57, p. 124-132Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    1. There are increasing demands to predict ecohydrological responses to future changes in catchments but such predictions will be inevitably uncertain because of natural variability and different sources of knowledge (epistemic) uncertainty. 2. Policy setting and decision-making should therefore reflect these inherent uncertainties in both model predictions and potential consequences. 3. This is the focus of a U.K. Natural Environment Research Council knowledge exchange project called the Catchment Change Network (CCN). The aim is to bring academics and practitioners together to define Guidelines for Good Practice in incorporating risk and uncertainty into assessments of the impacts of change. 4. Here, we assess the development of such Guidelines in the context of having catchment models of everywhere.

  • 20.
    Beven, Keith J.
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Binley, Andrew
    GLUE: 20 years on2014In: Hydrological Processes, ISSN 0885-6087, E-ISSN 1099-1085, Vol. 28, no 24, p. 5897-5918Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper reviews the use of the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology in the 20 years since the paper by Beven and Binley in Hydrological Processes in (1992), which is now one of the most highly cited papers in hydrology. The original conception, the on-going controversy it has generated, the nature of different sources of uncertainty and the meaning of the GLUE prediction uncertainty bounds are discussed. The hydrological, rather than statistical, arguments about the nature of model and data errors and uncertainties that are the basis for GLUE are emphasized. The application of the Institute of Hydrology distributed model to the Gwy catchment at Plynlimon presented in the original paper is revisited, using a larger sample of models, a wider range of likelihood evaluations and new visualization techniques. It is concluded that there are good reasons to reject this model for that data set. This is a positive result in a research environment in that it requires improved models or data to be made available. In practice, there may be ethical issues of using outputs from models for which there is evidence for model rejection in decision making. Finally, some suggestions for what is needed in the next 20 years are provided.

  • 21.
    Beven, Keith J.
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Cloke, Hannah
    Pappenberger, Florian
    Lamb, Rob
    Hunter, Neil
    Hyperresolution information and hyperresolution ignorance in modelling the hydrology of the land surface2015In: SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES, ISSN 1674-7313, Vol. 58, no 1, p. 25-35Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    There is a strong drive towards hyperresolution earth system models in order to resolve finer scales of motion in the atmosphere. The problem of obtaining more realistic representation of terrestrial fluxes of heat and water, however, is not just a problem of moving to hyperresolution grid scales. It is much more a question of a lack of knowledge about the parameterisation of processes at whatever grid scale is being used for a wider modelling problem. Hyperresolution grid scales cannot alone solve the problem of this hyperresolution ignorance. This paper discusses these issues in more detail with specific reference to land surface parameterisations and flood inundation models. The importance of making local hyperresolution model predictions available for evaluation by local stakeholders is stressed. It is expected that this will be a major driving force for improving model performance in the future.

  • 22.
    Beven, Keith J.
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Lamb, Rob
    The uncertainty cascade in model fusion2014In: Geological Society Special Publication, ISSN 0305-8719, E-ISSN 2041-4927Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    There are increasing demands in assessing the impacts of change on environmental systems to couple different model components together in a cascade, the outputs from one component providing the inputs to another with or without feedbacks in the coupling. Each model component will necessarily involve some uncertainty in its specification and simulations that can be conditioned using some observational data. Taking account of this uncertainty should result in more robust decision making and may change the nature of the decision made. The difficulty in environmental decision making is in making proper estimates of uncertainties when so many of the sources of uncertainty result from lack of knowledge (epistemic uncertainties) rather than uncertainty that can be treated as random variability (aleatory uncertainty). This is particularly the case for problems that involve cascades of model components. Examples are the use of UKCP09 climate scenarios in impact studies, flood risk assessment involving models of runoff generation and their impact on hydraulic models of flood plains, and integrated catchment management involving upstream to downstream surface and subsurface routing of water quality variables. The uncertainties are such that, even for relatively simple problems, they can result in wide ranges of potential outputs. This poses the questions that will be considered in this paper: how to take account of knowledge uncertainties in cascades of model components; and how to constrain the potential uncertainties for use in making decisions. In particular we highlight the difficulties of defining statistical likelihood functions that properly reflect the non-stationary uncertainty characteristics expected of epistemic sources of uncertainty.

  • 23.
    Beven, Keith J.
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Lamb, Rob
    Leedal, Dave
    Hunter, Neil
    Communicating uncertainty in flood inundation mapping: a case study2014In: International Journal of River Basin Management, ISSN 1571-5124, E-ISSN 1814-2060Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    An important issue in taking account of uncertainty in flood inundation mapping is the communication of the meaning of the outputs from an uncertainty analysis. In part this is because uncertainty estimation in this domain is not a simple statistical problem in that it involves knowledge uncertainties as well as statistical (aleatory) uncertainties in most of the important sources of uncertainty (estimated upstream discharges, effective roughness coefficients, flood plain and channel geometries and infrastructure, choice of model, fragility of defences, etc.). Thus, assumptions are required associated with the knowledge or lack of knowledge about these different sources of uncertainty. A framework has been developed in the form of a sequence of condition trees to help define these assumptions. Since stakeholders in the process can potentially be involved in making and recording decisions about those assumptions the framework also serves as a means of communicating the assumptions. Recording the decisions also serves to provide an audit trail for later evaluation of the decisions and hence the resulting analysis. Communication can also be helped in this type of spatial problem by effective visualization techniques and a visualization tool has been developed for both a web-based service using Google Maps™ and a desktop application using the Matlab™ numerical package.

  • 24.
    Beven, Keith J.
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Smith, P.
    Rethinking Concepts of Information Content of Hydrological Data to Account for Epistemic Errors2014In: Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management, 2014, p. 263-272Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    There remains a great deal of uncertainty about uncertainty estimation in hydrological modelling. Given that hydrology is still a subject limited by the available measurement techniques, it does not appear that the issue of epistemic error in hydrological data will go away for the foreseeable future. It may be necessary to find a way of allowing for robust model conditioning and more subjective treatments of potential epistemic errors in model applications. In this study, we have made an attempt to analyse how this is the result of the epistemic uncertainties inherent in the hydrological modelling process and its impact on model conditioning and hypothesis testing. We propose some ideas about how to deal with assessing the information in hydrological data and how it might influence model conditioning based on hydrological reasoning, with an application to rainfall-runoff modelling of a catchment in Northern England where inconsistent data for some events can potentially introduce disinformation into the model conditioning process. A methodology is presented to make an assessment of the relative information content of calibration data before running a model that can then inform the evaluation of model runs and resulting simulation uncertainties.

  • 25.
    Beven, Keith J
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Air and Water Science.
    Smith, P.
    Freer, J.
    Comment on “Hydrological forecasting uncertainty assessment: Incoherence of the GLUE methodology” by Pietro Mantovan and Ezio Todini2007In: Journal of Hydrology, ISSN 0022-1694, E-ISSN 1879-2707, Vol. 338, no 3-4, p. 315-318Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This comment is a response to the criticisms of the GLUE methodology by [Mantovan, P., Todini, E., 2006. Hydrological forecasting uncertainty assessment: Incoherence of the GLUE methodology, J. Hydrology, 2006]. In this comment it is shown that the formal Bayesian identification of models is a special case of GLUE that can be used where the modeller is prepared to make very strong assumptions about the nature of the modelling errors. For the hypothetical study of Mantovan and Todini, exact assumptions were assumed known for the formal Bayesian identification, but were then ignored in the application of GLUE to the same data. We show that a more reasonable application of GLUE to this problem using similar prior knowledge shows that gives equally coherent results to the formal Bayes identification. In real applications, subject to input and model structural error it is suggested that the coherency condition of MT06 cannot hold at the single observation level and that the choice of a formal Bayesian likelihood function may then be incoherent. In these (more interesting) cases, GLUE can be coherent in the application of likelihood measures based on blocks of data, but different choices of measures and blocks effectively represent different beliefs about the information content of data in real applications with input and model structural errors.

  • 26.
    Beven, Keith J.
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Younger, P.
    Freer, J.
    Struggling with Epistemic Uncertainties in Environmental Modelling of Natural Hazards2014In: Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management, 2014, p. 13-22Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Epistemic uncertainties create difficulties for the quantitative estimation of uncertainties associated with environmental models. The nature of the issues involved is discussed, particularly in how to assign likelihood values to models when the forcing data and evaluation data might both be subject to epistemic uncertainties. A case study of a rainfall-runoff model of the River Brue catchment is developed with the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology. Model evaluation is carried out using limits of acceptability set from considerations of the available data prior to running a model, while the errors associated with a model are treated non-parametrically for different parts of the hydrograph.

  • 27.
    Beven, Keith
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Smith, P. J.
    Wood, A.
    On the colour and spin of epistemic error (and what we might do about it)2011In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, ISSN 1027-5606, E-ISSN 1607-7938, Vol. 15, no 10, p. 3123-3133Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Disinformation as a result of epistemic error is an issue in hydrological modelling. In particular the way in which the colour in model residuals resulting from epistemic errors should be expected to be non-stationary means that it is difficult to justify the spin that the structure of residuals can be properly represented by statistical likelihood functions. To do so would be to greatly overestimate the information content in a set of calibration data and increase the possibility of both Type I and Type II errors. Some principles of trying to identify periods of disinformative data prior to evaluation of a model structure of interest, are discussed. An example demonstrates the effect on the estimated parameter values of a hydrological model.

  • 28.
    Beven, Keith
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Smith, Paul
    Concepts of Information Content and Likelihood in Parameter Calibration for Hydrological Simulation Models2015In: Journal of hydrologic engineering, ISSN 1084-0699, E-ISSN 1943-5584, Vol. 20, no 1, article id A4014010Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    There remains a great deal of uncertainty about uncertainty estimation in hydrological modeling. Given that hydrology is still a subject limited by the available measurement techniques, it does not appear that the issue of epistemic error in hydrological data will go away for the foreseeable future, and it may be necessary to find a way to allow for robust model conditioning and more subjective treatments of potential epistemic errors in prediction. In this paper an attempt is made to analyze how this is the result of the epistemic uncertainties inherent in the hydrological modeling process and their impact on model conditioning and hypothesis testing. Some ideas are proposed about how to deal with assessing the information in hydrological data and how it might influence model conditioning based on hydrological reasoning, with an application to rainfall-runoff modeling of a catchment in northern England, where inconsistent data for some events can introduce disinformation into the model conditioning process. A methodology is presented to make an assessment of the relative information content of calibration data before running a model that can then inform the evaluation of model runs and resulting prediction uncertainties.

  • 29.
    Beven, Keith
    et al.
    Environmental Science/Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster UK.
    Smith, Paul J.
    Environmental Science/Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster UK.
    Freer, Jim E.
    Environmental Science/Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster UK.
    So just why would a modeller choose to be incoherent?2008In: Journal of Hydrology, ISSN 0022-1694, E-ISSN 1879-2707, Vol. 354, no 1-4, p. 15-32Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article provides an extended response to the criticisms of the GLUE methodology by Mantovan and Todini [Mantovan, P., Todini, E., 2006. Hydrological forecasting uncertainty assessment: incoherence of the GLUE methodology. J. Hydrol. 330, 368-381]. It is shown that the formal Bayesian identification of models is a special case of GLUE that can be used where the modeller is prepared to make very strong assumptions about the nature of the modelling errors. Under such assumptions, GLUE can be coherent in the sense of Manotvan and Todini. In real applications, however, with multiple sources of uncertainty including model structural error, their strong definition of coherence is shown to be inapplicable to the extent that the choice of a format likelihood function based on a simple error structure may be an incoherent choice. It is demonstrated by some relatively minor modifications of their hypothetical example that misspecification of the error model and the non-stationarities associated with the presence of input error and model structural error in the Bayes approach will then produce well-defined but incorrect parameter distributions. This empirical result is quite independent of GLUE, but the flexibility of the GLUE approach may then prove to be an advantage in providing more coherent and robust choices of model evaluation in these cases and, by analogy, in other non-ideal cases for real applications. At the current time it is difficult to make a reasoned choice between methods of uncertainty estimation for real applications because of a lack of understanding of the real information content of data in conditioning models.

  • 30.
    Beven, Keith
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Smith, Paul
    Lancaster Environment Centre, University of Lancaster, Lancaster, UK.
    Westerberg, Ida
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Freer, Jim
    School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
    Comment on "Pursuing the method of multiple working hypotheses for hydrological modeling" by M. P. Clark et al.2012In: Water resources research, ISSN 0043-1397, E-ISSN 1944-7973, Vol. 48, p. W11801-Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 31.
    Beven, Keith
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Westerberg, Ida
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    On red herrings and real herrings: disinformation and information in hydrological inference2011In: Hydrological Processes, ISSN 0885-6087, E-ISSN 1099-1085, Vol. 25, no 10, p. 1676-1680Article in journal (Other academic)
  • 32. Brazier, Richard
    et al.
    Schaerer, Michael
    Heathwaite, Louise
    Beven, Keith
    Scholefield, Paul
    Haygarth, Phil
    Hodgkinson, Robin
    Walling, Des
    Withers, Paul
    A framework for predicting delivery of phosphorus from agricultural land using a decision-tree approach2006In: Sediment Dynamics and the Hydromorphology of Fluvial Systems, 2006, Vol. 306, p. 514-523Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Diagnostic models such as the P Indicators Tool have been used to predict the risk of P losses from different areas of agricultural land to watercourses. These models embody the source-mobilization delivery-impact framework as a simple logical summary of process understanding. however, the assessment of P delivery has been neglected in the past. An alternative, decision-tree approach to predict the delivery of P to water bodies is presented here. The approach was developed as part of the DEFRA PEDAL project (http://www.lec.lancs.ac.uk/cswm/projects) and makes use of national coverage data held within a GIS at the 1 km(2) scale, in combination with a "field toolkit" of measurements and qualitative observations. For all catchments, monitoring of total P loads in receiving waters has occurred over recent years enabling evaluation of the modelling and field toolkit approach.

  • 33. Choi, H.T.
    et al.
    Beven, Keith J
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Air and Water Science.
    Multi-period and Multi-criteria Model Conditioning to Reduce Prediction Uncertainty in Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Modelling within GLUE framework2007In: Journal of Hydrology, ISSN 0022-1694, E-ISSN 1879-2707, Vol. 332, no 3-4, p. 316-336Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A new approach to multi-criteria model evaluation is presented. The approach is consistent with the equifinality thesis and is developed within the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) framework. The predictions of Monte Carlo realisations of TOPMODEL parameter sets are evaluated using a number of performance measures calibrated for both global (annual) and seasonal (30 day) periods. The seasonal periods were clustered using a Fuzzy C-means algorithm, into 15 types representing different hydrological conditions. The model shows good performance on a classical efficiency measure at the global level, but no model realizations were found that were behavioural over all multi-period clusters and all performance measures, raising questions about what should be considered as an acceptable model performance. Prediction uncertainties can still be calculated by allowing that different clusters require different parameter sets. Variations in parameter distributions between clusters, as well as examination of where observed discharges depart from model prediction bounds, give some indication of model structure deficiencies.

  • 34. Davies, J.
    et al.
    Beven, Keith J.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Comparison of a Multiple Interacting Pathways model with a classical kinematic wave subsurface flow solution2012In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 57, no 2, p. 203-216Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A discrete random particle representation of flow processes on shallow hillslopes is compared with solutions of the classical kinematic wave representation. The discrete Multiple Interacting Pathways (MIPs) model has the potential to represent the effects of complex heterogeneities and preferential flow pathways. It is shown that, under shared assumptions, the MIPs model can produce equivalent flow predictions to a standard kinematic wave realization. The MIPs model is then used to further explore the relationship between celerity and water velocity by introducing a velocity distribution, which represents the range of possible flow pathways, and therefore is representative of the nature of heterogeneity (or lack of it within a homogeneous case) within the subsurface. It is shown that, whilst flux constraints can be satisfied with a distribution of flow velocities, it can result in changes to the hydrograph. Multiple pathways also have an influence on the residence times for input increments, output increments and storage in the system.

  • 35. Davies, J.
    et al.
    Beven, Keith
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Rodhe, Allan
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Nyberg, L.
    Bishop, Kevin
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Integrated modeling of flow and residence times at the catchment scale with multiple interacting pathways2013In: Water resources research, ISSN 0043-1397, E-ISSN 1944-7973, Vol. 49, no 8, p. 4738-4750Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    There is still a need for catchment hydrological and transport models that properly integrate the effects of preferential flows while accounting for differences in velocities and celerities. A modeling methodology is presented here which uses particle tracking methods to simulate both flow and transport in multiple pathways in a single consistent solution. Water fluxes and storages are determined by the volume and density of particles and transport is attained by labeling the particles with information that may be tracked throughout the lifetime of that particle in the catchment. The methodology allows representation of preferential flows through the use of particle velocity distributions, and mixing between pathways can be achieved with pathway transition probabilities. A transferable 3-D modeling methodology is presented for the first time and applied to a unique step-shift isotope experiment that was carried out at the 0.63 ha G1 catchment in Gardsjon, Sweden. This application highlights the importance of combining flow and transport in hydrological representations, and the importance of pathway velocity distributions and interactions in obtaining a satisfactory representation of the observations.

  • 36. Davies, Jessica A. C.
    et al.
    Beven, Keith
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Hysteresis and scale in catchment storage, flow and transport2015In: Hydrological Processes, ISSN 0885-6087, E-ISSN 1099-1085, Vol. 29, no 16, p. 3604-3615Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The closure problem of representing hydrological boundary fluxes given the state of the system has been described as the scientific Holy Grail' of hydrology. This relationship between storage state and flux should be hysteretic and scale dependent because of the differences between velocities and celerities in a hydrological systemeffectively velocities are storage controlled, and celerities are controlled by storage deficits. To improve our understanding of the nature of these relationships a new hydrology model is used (the Multiple Interacting Pathways or MIPs model) to explore the influence of catchment scale on storage-flow-transport relationships, and their non-linearities. The MIPs model has been shown to produce acceptable simulations of both flow and tracer, i.e. of both celerities and velocities, at the Gardsjon catchment in Sweden. In this study the model is used to simulate scaled versions of the Gardsjon catchment to allow us for the first time to investigate the influence of scale on the non-linearities in storage-flow-transport relationships, and help us steer the quest for the scientific hydrological Holy Grail'. The simulations reveal the influence of scale on flow response in the nature of storage-discharge hysteresis and its links with antecedent storage; fractal-like systematic change of mean output travel times with scale; the effect of scale on input, output and storage residence time distributions; hysteric relations between storage and output travel times and links between storage and water table level hysteresis. (c) 2015 The Authors. Hydrological Processes published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  • 37. Davies, Jessica
    et al.
    Beven, Keith J.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Nyberg, Lars
    Rodhe, Allan
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    A discrete particle representation of hillslope hydrology: hypothesis testing in reproducing a tracer experiment at Gardsjon, Sweden2011In: Hydrological Processes, ISSN 0885-6087, E-ISSN 1099-1085, Vol. 25, no 23, p. 3602-3612Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Despite the long history of the continuum equation approach in hydrology, it is not a necessary approach to the formulation of a physically based representation of hillslope hydrology. The Multiple Interacting Pathways ( MIPs) model is a discrete realization that allows hillslope response and transport to be simultaneously explored in a way that reflects the potential occurrence of preferential flows and lengths of pathways. The MIPs model uses random particle tracking methods to represent the flow of water within the subsurface alongside velocity distributions that acknowledge preferential flows and transition probability matrices, which control flow pathways. An initial realization of this model is presented here in application to a tracer experiment carried out in Gardsjon, Sweden. The model is used as an exploratory tool, testing several hypotheses in relation to this experiment.

  • 38. Delsman, Joost R.
    et al.
    Essink, Gualbert H. P. Oude
    Beven, Keith J.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Stuyfzand, Pieter J.
    Uncertainty estimation of end-member mixing using generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE), applied in a lowland catchment2013In: Water resources research, ISSN 0043-1397, E-ISSN 1944-7973, Vol. 49, no 8, p. 4792-4806Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    End-member mixing models have been widely used to separate the different components of a hydrograph, but their effectiveness suffers from uncertainty in both the identification of end-members and spatiotemporal variation in end-member concentrations. In this paper, we outline a procedure, based on the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework, to more inclusively evaluate uncertainty in mixing models than existing approaches. We apply this procedure, referred to as G-EMMA, to a yearlong chemical data set from the heavily impacted agricultural Lissertocht catchment, Netherlands, and compare its results to the traditional end-member mixing analysis (EMMA). While the traditional approach appears unable to adequately deal with the large spatial variation in one of the end-members, the G-EMMA procedure successfully identified, with varying uncertainty, contributions of five different end-members to the stream. Our results suggest that the concentration distribution of effective end-members, that is, the flux-weighted input of an end-member to the stream, can differ markedly from that inferred from sampling of water stored in the catchment. Results also show that the uncertainty arising from identifying the correct end-members may alter calculated end-member contributions by up to 30%, stressing the importance of including the identification of end-members in the uncertainty assessment.

  • 39.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Brandimarte, Luigia
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Beven, Keith
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    The seventh facet of uncertainty: wrong assumptions, unknowns and surprises in the dynamics of human-water systems2016In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 61, no 9, p. 1748-1758Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The scientific literature has focused on uncertainty as randomness, while limited credit has been given to what we call here the seventh facet of uncertainty, i.e. lack of knowledge. This paper identifies three types of lack of understanding: (i) known unknowns, which are things we know we don't know; (ii) unknown unknowns, which are things we don't know we don't know; and (iii) wrong assumptions, things we think we know, but we actually don't know. Here we discuss each of these with reference to the study of the dynamics of human-water systems, which is one of the main topics of Panta Rhei, the current scientific decade of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS), focusing on changes in hydrology and society. In the paper, we argue that interdisciplinary studies of socio-hydrological dynamics leading to a better understanding of human-water interactions can help in coping with wrong assumptions and known unknowns. Also, being aware of the existence of unknown unknowns, and their potential capability to generate surprises or black swans, suggests the need to complement top-down approaches, based on quantitative predictions of water-related hazards, with bottom-up approaches, based on societal vulnerabilities and possibilities of failure.

  • 40. Ellerbæk Nielsen, J.
    et al.
    Beven, Keith J.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Thorndahl, S.
    Rasmussen, M. R.
    GLUE based marine X-band weather radar data calibration and uncertainty estimation2015In: Urban Water Journal, ISSN 1573-062X, Vol. 12, no 4, p. 283-294Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation methodology (GLUE) is investigated for radar rainfall calibration and uncertainty assessment. The method is used to calibrate radar data collected by a Local Area Weather Radar (LAWR).

    In contrast to other LAWR data calibrations, the method combines calibration with uncertainty estimation. Instead of searching for a single set of calibration parameters, the method uses the observations to construct distributions of the calibration parameters. These parameter sets provide valuable knowledge of parameter sensitivity and the uncertainty.

    Two approaches are analyzed; the static calibration approach, where the LAWR is calibrated once for a long period and the dynamic approach, where the estimate is continuously adjusted based on ground observations.

    The analysis illustrates that the static calibration performs insufficiently, whereas the dynamic adjustment improves the performance significantly.

    It is found that even if the dynamic adjustment method is used the uncertainty of rainfall estimates can still be significant.

  • 41. Fang, Shifeng
    et al.
    Pei, Huan
    Liu, Zhihui
    Beven, Keith
    Lancaster Environmental Center, Lancaster University, UK.
    Wei, Zhaocai
    Water Resources Assessment and Regional Virtual Water Potential in the Turpan Basin, China2010In: Water resources management, ISSN 0920-4741, E-ISSN 1573-1650, Vol. 24, no 13, p. 3321-3332Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Located in the centre of the Eurasian Continent, the Turpan Basin, as the second deepest lowland in the world, is extremely short of water resources. Aimed at this key scientific issue, this paper based on years of meteorological and hydrological observation data, carried out a scientific calculation and evaluation of surface and groundwater resources in the Turpan Basin, and then, with the help of modified Penman formula, calculated the virtual water potential in the basin in 2004. The results show that the average total usable surface water resources per year in the last decade were about 6.673x10(8) m(3), while adduction volume of surface water in 2003 was about 4.94x10(8) m(3), which means that most of the region has reached or approached the limit of water resources and, as a result serious crises and constraints on the development of the basin were thus caused. The exploitation content of groundwater in the Turpan Basin in 2003 was about 6.12x10(8) m(3), which has basically reached its upper limit, and the ground water level has fallen about 10 similar to 40 m in the Turpan Basin in recent years. The daily reference crop water requirement in the Turpan Basin in 2004 was about 1,053.39 mm, and the total virtual water potential contained in six main crops was about 5.25 x10(8) m(3) in 2004. All these showed that research works on scientific assessment of water resources and regional virtual water strategy have great significance for the best social, ecological, economic benefits and regional sustainable development of the Turpan Basin.

  • 42. Faulkner, H.
    et al.
    Parker, D.
    Green, C.
    Beven, Keith J
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Air and Water Science.
    Developing a translational discourse to communicate uncertainty in flood risk between science and the practitioner2007In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 36, no 8, p. 692-704Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The language and tools of risk and uncertainty estimation in flood risk management (FRM) are rarely optimized for the extant communication challenge. This paper develops the rationale for a pragmatic semiotics of risk communication between scientists developing flood models and forecasts and those professional groups who are the receptors for flood risk estimates and warnings in the UK. The current barriers to effective communication and the constraints involved in the formation of a communication language are explored, focusing on the role of the professional's agenda or “mission” in creating or reducing those constraints. The tools available for the development of this discourse, for both flood warnings in real time and generalized FRM communications, are outlined. It is argued that the contested ownership of the articulation of uncertainties embedded in flood risk communications could be reduced by the development of a formally structured translational discourse between science and professionals in FRM, through which process “codes of practice” for uncertainty estimation in different application areas can be developed. Ways in which this might take place in an institutional context are considered.

  • 43. Freer, J.
    et al.
    Beven, Keith J.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Neal, J.
    Schumann, G.
    Hall, J.
    Bates, P.
    Flood risk and uncertainty2013In: Risk and Uncertainty Assessment for Natural Hazards / [ed] Jonathan Rougier, Steve Sparks, Lisa Hill, Cambridge University Press, 2013, p. 190-233Chapter in book (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Introduction

    Extreme floods are among the most destructive forces of nature. Flooding accounts for a significant proportion of the total number of reported natural disasters occurring in the world (Figure 7.1a) and over the last 30 years this proportion has been increasing (Figure 7.1b). Reasons for this trend may not be clear; for each hazard there is a need to quantify whether this is an increase in the hazard itself, an increase in exposure to the hazard internationally or a change in the reporting of what constitutes a natural disaster. Internationally, the costs and scale of flooding are enormous but differ depending on the types of impact that are analysed and the databases used. Globally in 2007 it was estimated that annually 520 million people are affected by floods and that the death toll is approximately 25 000 people in any one year. Jonkman (2005) found for a study using data from 1974 to 2003 (from data maintained by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters in Brussels) that floods are the most significant natural disaster type in terms of the number of people affected – some 51% of the total of that period of approximately five billion people affected by natural disaster (droughts are second with 36%, and earthquakes third at 2%). However, in terms of overall estimated deaths flooding accounts for 10% of the approximately two million reported deaths associated with natural disasters over the 1974–2003 period (droughts 44% and earthquakes 27%). In monetary terms an assessment by Munich RE for the period 1980–2010 determined that at 2010 prices the losses totalled US$3000 billion from ~19 400 events with 2.275 million fatalities. Of these, hydrological catastrophes (flooding and mass movement, i.e. landslips and debris flow in this case) accounted for 24% of these monetary losses, from 35% of the total events, and 11% of the fatalities. Other categories of natural disasters included in these totals were geophysical, meteorological and climatological (NatCatSERVICE, 2011).

  • 44.
    Fuentes–Andino, Diana
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Centre for Natural Disaster Science (CNDS).
    Beven, Keith
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Institute of Environmental and Natural Sciences, Lancaster University.
    Halldin, Sven
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Centre for Natural Disaster Science (CNDS).
    Xu, Chong-Yu
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo.
    Reynolds, Eduardo
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Centre for Natural Disaster Science (CNDS).
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Centre for Natural Disaster Science (CNDS).
    Reproducing an extreme flood with uncertain post-event information2017In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, ISSN 1812-2108, E-ISSN 1812-2116, Vol. 21, no 7, p. 3597-3618Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Studies for the prevention and mitigation of floods require information on discharge and extent of inundation, commonly unavailable or uncertain, especially during extreme events. This study was initiated by the devastating flood in Tegucigalpa, the capital of Honduras, when Hurricane Mitch struck the city. In this study we hypothesized that it is possible to estimate, in a trustworthy way considering large data uncertainties, this extreme 1998 flood discharge and the extent of the inundations that followed from a combination of models and post-event measured data. Postevent data collected in 2000 and 2001 were used to estimate discharge peaks, times of peak, and high-water marks. These data were used in combination with rain data from two gauges to drive and constrain a combination of well-known modelling tools: TOPMODEL, Muskingum-Cunge-Todini routing, and the LISFLOOD-FP hydraulic model. Simulations were performed within the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) uncertainty-analysis framework. The model combination predicted peak discharge, times of peaks, and more than 90% of the observed highwater marks within the uncertainty bounds of the evaluation data. This allowed an inundation likelihood map to be produced. Observed high-water marks could not be reproduced at a few locations on the floodplain. Identifications of these locations are useful to improve model set-up, model structure, or post-event data-estimation methods. Rainfall data were of central importance in simulating the times of peak and results would be improved by a better spatial assessment of rainfall, e. g. from radar data or a denser rain-gauge net-work. Our study demonstrated that it was possible, considering the uncertainty in the post-event data, to reasonably reproduce the extreme Mitch flood in Tegucigalpa in spite of no hydrometric gauging during the event. The method proposed here can be part of a Bayesian framework in which more events can be added into the analysis as they become available.

  • 45.
    Fuentes-Andino, Diana
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences. Centre for Natural Disaster Science (CNDS).
    Beven, Keith
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Institute of Environmental and Natural Sciences, Lancaster University.
    Kauffeldt, Anna
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Xu, Chong-Yu
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Norway.
    Halldin, Sven
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Uppsala Univ, CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Event and model dependent rainfall adjustments to improve discharge predictions2017In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 62, no 2, p. 232-245Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Most conceptual rainfall–runoff models use as input spatially averaged rainfall fields which are typically associated with significant errors that affect the model outcome. In this study, it was hypothesised that a simple spatially and temporally averaged event-dependent rainfall multiplier can account for errors in the rainfall input. The potentials and limitations of this lumped multiplier approach were explored by evaluating the effects of multipliers on the accuracy and precision of the predictive distributions. Parameter sets found to be behavioural across a range of different flood events were assumed to be a good representation of the catchment dynamics and were used to identify rainfall multipliers for each of the individual events. An effect of the parameter sets on identified multipliers was found; however, it was small compared to the differences between events. Accounting for event-dependent multipliers improved the reliability of the predictions. At the cost of a small decrease in precision, the distribution of identified multipliers for past events can be used to account for possible rainfall errors when predicting future events. By using behavioural parameter sets to identify rainfall multipliers, the method offers a simple and computationally efficient way to address rainfall errors in hydrological modelling.

  • 46. Gallart, F.
    et al.
    Latron, J.
    Llorens, P.
    Beven, Keith J
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Air and Water Science.
    Using internal catchment information to reduce the uncertainty of discharge and baseflow prediction2007In: Advances in Water Resources, ISSN 0309-1708, E-ISSN 1872-9657, Vol. 30, no 4, p. 808-823Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The semi-distributed hydrological model TOPMODEL was tested with data from the Can Vila research basin (Vallcebre) in order to verify its adequacy for simulating runoff and the relative contributions from saturated overland flow and groundwater flow. After a test of the overall performance of the model, only data from a wet period were selected for this work. The test was performed using the GLUE method. The model was conditioned on continuous discharge and water table records. Furthermore, point measurements of recession flow simultaneous with water table depth and the extent of saturated areas were used to condition the distributions of the more relevant parameters, using new or updated evaluation measures. A wide range of parameter sets provided acceptable results for flow simulation when the model was conditioned on flow data alone, and the uncertainty of prediction of the contribution from groundwater was extremely large. However, conditioning on water table records and the distribution of parameters obtained from point observations strongly reduced the uncertainty of predictions for both stream flow and groundwater contribution.

  • 47. Hughes, Danny
    et al.
    Greenwood, Phil
    Blair, Gordon
    Coulson, Geoff
    Grace, Paul
    Pappenberger, Florian
    Smith, Paul
    Beven, Keith
    An experiment with reflective middleware to support grid-based flood monitoring2008In: Concurrency and Computation, ISSN 1532-0626, E-ISSN 1532-0634, Vol. 20, no 11, p. 1303-1316Article in journal (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Flooding is a growing problem, which affects more than 10% of the U.K. population. The cost of damage caused by flooding correlates closely with the warning time given before a flood event, making flood monitoring and prediction critical to minimizing the cost of flood damage. This paper describes a wireless sensor network (WSN) for flood warning, which is capable of not only integrating with remote fixed-network grids for computationally intensive flood modelling purposes but also performing on-site grid computation. This functionality is supported by the reflective and component-based GridKit middleware, which provides support for both WSN and grid application domains. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  • 48. Hughes, Danny
    et al.
    Greenwood, Phil
    Blair, Gordon
    Coulson, Geoff
    Pappenberger, Florian
    Smith, Paul
    Beven, Keith
    An intelligent and adaptable grid-based flood monitoring and warning system2006In: Proceedings of the UK e-Science All Hands Meeting 2006 / [ed] Simon J. Cox, Edinburgh: National E-Science Centre , 2006, p. 53-60Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Flooding is a growing problem in the UK. It has a significant effect on residents, businesses and commuters in flood-prone areas. The cost of damage caused by flooding correlates closely with the warning time given before a flood event, and this makes flood monitoring and prediction critical to minimizing the cost of flood damage. This paper describes a wireless sensor network for flood warning which is not only capable of integrating with remote fixed-network grids for computationally-intensive flood modeling purposes, but is also capable of performing on-site flood modeling by organising itself as a 'local grid'. The combination of these two modes of grid computation-local and remote-yields significant benefits. For example, local computation can be used to provide timely warnings to local stakeholders, and a combination of local and remote computation can inform adaptation of the sensor network to maintain optimal performance in changing environmental conditions.

  • 49. Iorgulescu, I.
    et al.
    Beven, Keith J.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Air and Water Science.
    Musy, A.
    Flow, mixing, and displacement in using a data-based hydrochemical model to predict conservative tracer data2007In: Water resources research, ISSN 0043-1397, E-ISSN 1944-7973, Vol. 43, no 3, p. W03401-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We extend the data-based hydrochemical model of Iorgulescu et al. (2005), able to simulate discharge and reactive chemical tracer concentrations (silica and calcium) in streamflow for subcatchments of the Haute-Mentue research basin (Switzerland), to the prediction of additional δ 18O values treated as a conservative tracer. The hydrochemical model is based on a parameterization of three runoff components (direct precipitation (DP), acid soil water (AS), and deep groundwater (GW)) in a chemical mixing model. Each component is modeled through an identical structure consisting of a nonlinear gain and a linear transfer function with two reservoirs (fast/slow) in parallel having a constant partition between them. We formulate a set of hypotheses concerning the isotope characterization of each component to provide additional information about how new rainfall inputs are processed in the hydrological response of the catchment. In particular, the AS component is modeled through a nested structure of hypotheses (models) of increasing complexity. It will be shown that hydrological processes in the hillslope associated with the DP, AS, and GW components are especially effective in filtering of higher-frequency fluctuations in precipitation isotopic ratios at the intraevent, interevent/seasonal, and annual/multiannual timescales. The highly nonlinear and nonstationary AS component represents predominantly “recent” water stored in the upper decimeters of the soil profile. Results also suggest that subsurface pathways are significant for the DP component. A local flow path mechanism is proposed for explaining the large fluxes of subsurface flows.

  • 50.
    Juston, John
    et al.
    KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Department of Land and Water Resources Engineering, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Kauffeldt, Anna
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Quesada Montano, Beatriz
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Seibert, Jan
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Beven, Keith
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Westerberg, Ida
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Smiling in the rain: Seven reasons to be positive about uncertainty in hydrological modelling2013In: Hydrological Processes, ISSN 0885-6087, E-ISSN 1099-1085, Vol. 27, no 7, p. 1117-1122Article in journal (Refereed)
123 1 - 50 of 103
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