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  • 1.
    Alfieri, Lorenzo
    et al.
    European Commiss Joint Res Ctr, TP 122,Via E Fermi 2749, I-21027 Ispra, VA, Italy.
    Feyen, Luc
    European Commiss Joint Res Ctr, TP 122,Via E Fermi 2749, I-21027 Ispra, VA, Italy.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Increasing flood risk under climate change: a pan-European assessment of the benefits of four adaptation strategies2016In: Climatic Change, Vol. 136, no 3, p. 507-521Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Future flood risk in Europe is likely to increase due to a combination of climatic and socio-economic drivers. Effective adaptation strategies need to be implemented to limit the impact of river flooding on population and assets. This research builds upon a recently developed flood risk assessment framework at European scale to explore the benefits of adaptation against extreme floods. The effect of implementing four different adaptation measures is simulated in the modeling framework. Measures include the rise of flood protections, reduction of the peak flows through water retention, reduction of vulnerability and relocation to safer areas. Their sensitivity is assessed in several configurations under a high-end global warming scenario over the time range 1976-2100. Results suggest that the future increase in expected damage and population affected by river floods can be compensated through different configurations of adaptation measures. The adaptation efforts should favor measures targeted at reducing the impacts of floods, rather than trying to avoid them. Conversely, adaptation plans only based on rising flood protections have the effect of reducing the frequency of small floods and exposing the society to less-frequent but catastrophic floods and potentially long recovery processes.

  • 2.
    Alfonso, L.
    et al.
    UNESCO IHE Inst Water Educ, Integrated Water Syst & Governance, Delft, Netherlands..
    Mukolwe, M. M.
    UNESCO IHE Inst Water Educ, Integrated Water Syst & Governance, Delft, Netherlands.;Masinde Muliro Univ Sci & Technol, Estates Dept, Kakamega, Kenya..
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Probabilistic Flood Maps to support decision-making: Mapping the Value of Information2016In: Water resources research, ISSN 0043-1397, E-ISSN 1944-7973, Vol. 52, no 2, p. 1026-1043Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Floods are one of the most frequent and disruptive natural hazards that affect man. Annually, significant flood damage is documented worldwide. Flood mapping is a common preimpact flood hazard mitigation measure, for which advanced methods and tools (such as flood inundation models) are used to estimate potential flood extent maps that are used in spatial planning. However, these tools are affected, largely to an unknown degree, by both epistemic and aleatory uncertainty. Over the past few years, advances in uncertainty analysis with respect to flood inundation modeling show that it is appropriate to adopt Probabilistic Flood Maps (PFM) to account for uncertainty. However, the following question arises; how can probabilistic flood hazard information be incorporated into spatial planning? Thus, a consistent framework to incorporate PFMs into the decision-making is required. In this paper, a novel methodology based on Decision-Making under Uncertainty theories, in particular Value of Information (VOI) is proposed. Specifically, the methodology entails the use of a PFM to generate a VOI map, which highlights floodplain locations where additional information is valuable with respect to available floodplain management actions and their potential consequences. The methodology is illustrated with a simplified example and also applied to a real case study in the South of France, where a VOI map is analyzed on the basis of historical land use change decisions over a period of 26 years. Results show that uncertain flood hazard information encapsulated in PFMs can aid decision-making in floodplain planning.

  • 3. Ali, A Md
    et al.
    Di Baldassarre, G
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Solomatine, Dimitri P
    Testing different cross-section spacing in 1D hydraulic modelling: A case study on Johor River, Malaysia2014In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, no just-acceptedArticle in journal (Refereed)
  • 4. Ali, A. Md
    et al.
    Solomatine, D. P.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Assessing the impact of different sources of topographic data on 1-D hydraulic modelling of floods2015In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, ISSN 1027-5606, E-ISSN 1607-7938, Vol. 19, no 1, p. 631-643Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Topographic data, such as digital elevation models (DEMs), are essential input in flood inundation modelling. DEMs can be derived from several sources either through remote sensing techniques (spaceborne or airborne imagery) or from traditional methods (ground survey). The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), the light detection and ranging (lidar), and topographic contour maps are some of the most commonly used sources of data for DEMs. These DEMs are characterized by different precision and accuracy. On the one hand, the spatial resolution of low-cost DEMs from satellite imagery, such as ASTER and SRTM, is rather coarse (around 30 to 90 m). On the other hand, the lidar technique is able to produce high-resolution DEMs (at around 1 m), but at a much higher cost. Lastly, contour mapping based on ground survey is time consuming, particularly for higher scales, and may not be possible for some remote areas. The use of these different sources of DEM obviously affects the results of flood inundation models. This paper shows and compares a number of 1-D hydraulic models developed using HEC-RAS as model code and the aforementioned sources of DEM as geometric input. To test model selection, the outcomes of the 1-D models were also compared, in terms of flood water levels, to the results of 2-D models (LISFLOOD-FP). The study was carried out on a reach of the Johor River, in Malaysia. The effect of the different sources of DEMs (and different resolutions) was investigated by considering the performance of the hydraulic models in simulating flood water levels as well as inundation maps. The outcomes of our study show that the use of different DEMs has serious implications to the results of hydraulic models. The outcomes also indicate that the loss of model accuracy due to re-sampling the highest resolution DEM (i.e. lidar 1 m) to lower resolution is much less than the loss of model accuracy due to the use of lowcost DEM that have not only a lower resolution, but also a lower quality. Lastly, to better explore the sensitivity of the 1-D hydraulic models to different DEMs, we performed an uncertainty analysis based on the GLUE methodology.

  • 5. Aronica, Giuseppe T.
    et al.
    Apel, Heiko
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, Delft, the Netherlands.
    Schumann, Guy J-P.
    HP - Special Issue on Flood Risk and Uncertainty2013In: Hydrological Processes, ISSN 0885-6087, E-ISSN 1099-1085, Vol. 27, no 9, p. 1291-Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 6. BRANDIMARTE, L
    et al.
    BRATH, A
    CASTELLARIN, A
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    School of Civil Engineering (Dept. DISTART), University of Bologna, Italy Viale Risorgimento, 2, Bologna I-40136, Italy.
    Isla Hispaniola: A trans-boundary flood risk mitigation plan2009In: Physics and chemistry of the earth. Part A: Solid earth and geodesy, ISSN 1464-1895, E-ISSN 1873-4642, Vol. 34, no 4-5, p. 209-218Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 7. Brandimarte, L
    et al.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, Westvest 7, P.O. Box 3015, 2601, DA, Delft, The Netherlands .
    Bruni, G
    D’Odorico, P
    Montanari, A
    Relation Between the North-Atlantic Oscillation and Hydroclimatic Conditions in Mediterranean Areas2011In: Water Resources Management, Vol. 25, no 5, p. 1269-1279Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Mediterranean basins are known for their susceptibility to water stress conditions resulting from a reduction in winter-season precipitation. This region is also prone to the effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a large-scale climatic pattern associated with a displacement of air mass between the arctic and the subtropical Atlantic. Even though previous studies have demonstrated the impact of the NAO on winter climate conditions in Europe and Northern Africa, it is still unclear to what extent the NAO is related to hydroclimatic patterns in Mediterranean areas and whether it can explain its recent drought history. To this end, this study investigates the interdependence between the NAO and winter precipitation, river flow and temperature in two Mediterranean regions: Southern Italy and Nile Delta (Egypt). The outcomes show the presence of significant connections between the NAO, winter rainfall and river discharge.

  • 8. Brandimarte, Luigia
    et al.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    UNESCO-IHE, Institute for Water Education, Delft, The Netherlands .
    Uncertainty in design flood profiles derived by hydraulic modelling2012In: Hydrology Research, ISSN 1998-9563, Vol. 43, no 6, p. 753-761Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The scientific literature has widely shown that hydraulic modelling is affected by many sources of uncertainty (e.g. model structure, input data, model parameters). However, when hydraulic models are used for engineering purposes (e.g. flood defense design), there is still a tendency to make a deterministic use of them. More specifically, the prediction of flood design profiles is often based on the outcomes of a calibrated hydraulic model. Despite the good results in model calibration, this prediction is affected by significant uncertainty, which is commonly considered by adding a freeboard to the simulated flood profile. A more accurate approach would require an explicit analysis of the sources of uncertainty affecting hydraulic modelling and design flood estimation. This paper proposes an alternative approach, which is based on the use of uncertain flood profiles, where the most significant sources of uncertainty are explicitly analyzed. An application to the Po river reach between Cremona and Borgoforte (Italy) is used to illustrate the proposed framework and compare it to the traditional approach. This paper shows that the deterministic approach underestimates the design flood profile and questions whether the freeboard, often arbitrarily defined, might lead to a false perception of additional safety levels.

  • 9. Brandimarte, Luigia
    et al.
    Paron, Paolo
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    UNESCO IHE, Inst Water Educ, Westvest 7, NL-2601 DA Delft, Netherlands.
    Bridge pier scour: A review of processes, measurements and estimates2012In: Environmental Engineering and Management Journal, ISSN 1582-9596, E-ISSN 1843-3707, Vol. 11, no 5, p. 975-989Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 10.
    Breinl, Korbinian
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Girons Lopez, Marc
    Department of Geography, University of Zurich.
    Hagenlocher, Michael
    Institute for Environment and Human Security, United Nations University (UNU-EHS).
    Vico, Giulia
    Department of Crop Production Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences.
    Rutgersson, Anna
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Can weather generation capture precipitation patterns across different climates, spatial scales and under data scarcity?2017In: Scientific Reports, ISSN 2045-2322, E-ISSN 2045-2322, Vol. 7, article id 5449Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Stochastic weather generators can generate very long time series of weather patterns, which are indispensable in earth sciences, ecology and climate research. Yet, both their potential and limitations remain largely unclear because past research has typically focused on eclectic case studies at small spatial scales in temperate climates. In addition, stochastic multi-site algorithms are usually not publicly available, making the reproducibility of results difficult. To overcome these limitations, we investigated the performance of the reduced-complexity multi-site precipitation generator TripleM across three different climatic regions in the United States. By resampling observations, we investigated for the first time the performance of a multi-site precipitation generator as a function of the extent of the gauge network and the network density. The definition of the role of the network density provides new insights into the applicability in data-poor contexts. The performance was assessed using nine different statistical metrics with main focus on the inter-annual variability of precipitation and the lengths of dry and wet spells. Among our study regions, our results indicate a more accurate performance in wet temperate climates compared to drier climates. Performance deficits are more marked at larger spatial scales due to the increasing heterogeneity of climatic conditions.

  • 11. Buchecker, M.
    et al.
    Salvini, G.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, Delft, the Netherlands.
    Semenzin, E.
    Maidl, E.
    Marcomini, A.
    The role of risk perception in making flood risk management more effective2013In: Natural hazards and earth system sciences, ISSN 1561-8633, E-ISSN 1684-9981, Vol. 13, p. 3013-3030Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Over the last few decades, Europe has suffered from a number of severe flood events and, as a result, there has been a growing interest in probing alternative approaches to managing flood risk via prevention measures. A literature review reveals that, although in the last decades risk evaluation has been recognized as key element of risk management, and risk assessment methodologies (including risk analysis and evaluation) have been improved by including social, economic, cultural, historical and political conditions, the theoretical schemes are not yet applied in practice. One main reason for this shortcoming is that risk perception literature is mainly of universal and theoretical nature and cannot provide the necessary details to implement a comprehensive risk evaluation. This paper therefore aims to explore a procedure that allows the inclusion of stakeholders' perceptions of prevention measures in risk assessment. It proposes to adopt methods of risk communication (both one-way and two-way communication) in risk assessment with the final aim of making flood risk management more effective. The proposed procedure not only focuses on the effect of discursive risk communication on risk perception, and on achieving a shared assessment of the prevention alternatives, but also considers the effects of the communication process on perceived uncertainties, accepted risk levels, and trust in the managing institutions.

    The effectiveness of this combined procedure has been studied and illustrated using the example of the participatory flood prevention assessment process on the Sihl River in Zurich, Switzerland. The main findings of the case study suggest that the proposed procedure performed well, but that it needs some adaptations for it to be applicable in different contexts and to allow a (semi-) quantitative estimation of risk perception to be used as an indicator of adaptive capacity.

  • 12. Campedel, M.
    et al.
    Antonioni, G.
    Cozzani, V.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    Martorell, S
    Soares, C G
    Barnett, J
    A framework for the assessment of the industrial risk caused by floods2009In: Safety, reliability and risk analysis: theory, methods and applications / [ed] Sebastián Martorell, C Guedes Soares & Julie Barnett, Dr., 2009, p. 2749-2756Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 13. CASTELLARIN, A
    et al.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    Postdoctoral Researcher, School of Civil Engineering, Dept. DISTART, Univ. of Bologna, Bologna 40136, Italy .
    BATES, PD
    BRATH, A
    Optimal Cross-Sectional Spacing in Preissmann Scheme 1D Hydrodynamic Models2009In: Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, ISSN 0733-9429, E-ISSN 1943-7900, Vol. 135, no 2, p. 96-105Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Choosing a suitable set of cross sections for the representation of the natural geometry of a river is important for the efficiency of one-dimensional (1D) hydraulic models, but only few guidelines are available for the selection of the most suitable distance between cross sections, depending on the hydraulic problem at hand. This issue is investigated by examining models of a ∼55km reach of the River Po, Italy, and a ∼16km reach of the River Severn, United Kingdom, for both of which high quality laser scanning altimetry are available. The high-resolution digital terrain models of the two river reaches enabled the construction of a series of hypothetical topographical ground surveys with different spacing between cross sections, which could be used as input to a standard 1D model (UNET). Both historical and synthetic flood events for the two river reaches were simulated, and the results were then analyzed to quantify the accuracy associated with each resolution and to assess how survey resolution impacts the performance of standard 1D models. The study results agree with the available suggestions in the literature and provide useful guidelines for 1D hydrodynamic modeling.

  • 14. Castellarin, A.
    et al.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    Department of Hydroinformatics and Knowledge Management, UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, Delft, The Netherlands.
    Brath, A.
    Floodplain management strategies for flood attenuation in the river Po2011In: Rivers Research and Applications: an international journal devoted to river research and management, ISSN 1535-1459, E-ISSN 1535-1467, Vol. 27, no 8, p. 1037-1047Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper analyses the effects of different floodplain management policies on flood hazard using a 350 km reach of the river Po (Italy) as a case study. The river Po is the longest Italian river, and the largest in terms of streamflow. The middle-lower Po flows East some 350 km in the Pianura Padana (Po Valley), a very important agricultural region and industrial heart of Northern Italy. This portion of the river consists of a main channel (200–500 m wide) and a floodplain (overall width from 200 m to 5 km) confined by two continuous artificial embankments. Floodplains are densely cultivated, and a significant portion of these areas is protected against frequent flooding by a system of minor dykes, which impacts significantly the hydraulic behaviour of the middle-lower Po during major flood events. This study aims at investigating the effects of the adoption of different floodplain management strategies (e.g. raising, lowering or removing the minor dyke system) on the hydrodynamics of the middle-lower Po and, in particular, on flood-risk mitigation. This is a crucial task for institutions and public bodies in charge of formulating robust flood risk management strategies for the river Po. Furthermore, the results of this study are of interest for other European water-related public bodies managing large river basins, in the light of the recent European Directive 2007/60/EC on the assessment and management of flood risks. The analysis is performed by means of a quasi-2D hydraulic model, which has been developed on the basis of a laser-scanning DTM and a large amount of calibration data recorded during the significant flood event of October 2000.

  • 15.
    Ceola, Serena
    et al.
    Univ Bologna, Dept Civil Chem Environm & Mat Engn, Bologna, Italy..
    Montanari, Alberto
    Univ Bologna, Dept Civil Chem Environm & Mat Engn, Bologna, Italy..
    Krueger, Tobias
    Humboldt Univ, IRI THESys, Berlin, Germany..
    Dyer, Fiona
    Univ Canberra, Inst Appl Ecol, Canberra, ACT, Australia..
    Kreibich, Heidi
    GFZ German Res Ctr Geosci, Potsdam, Germany..
    Westerberg, Ida
    Univ Bristol, Dept Civil Engn, Bristol, Avon, England.;IVL Swedish Environm Res Inst, Stockholm, Sweden..
    Carr, Gemma
    Vienna Univ Technol, Ctr Water Resource Syst, Vienna, Austria..
    Cudennec, Christophe
    Agrocampus Ouest, INRA, Rennes, France..
    Elshorbagy, Amin
    Univ Saskatchewan, Dept Civil & Geol Engn, Saskatoon, SK, Canada..
    Savenije, Hubert
    Delft Univ Technol, Fac Civil Engn & Geosci, Delft, Netherlands..
    Van der Zaag, Pieter
    UNESCO IHE Inst Water Educ, Delft, Netherlands.;Delft Univ Technol, Water Resources Sect, Delft, Netherlands..
    Rosbjerg, Dan
    Tech Univ Denmark, Dept Environm Engn, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark..
    Aksoy, Hafzullah
    Istanbul Tech Univ, Dept Civil Engn, Istanbul, Turkey..
    Viola, Francesco
    Univ Cagliari, Dipartimento Ingn Civile Ambientale & Architettur, Cagliari, Italy..
    Petrucci, Guido
    Vrije Univ Brussel, Dept Analyt Environm & Geo Chem AMGC, Brussels, Belgium..
    MacLeod, Kit
    James Hutton Inst, Aberdeen, Scotland..
    Croke, Barry
    Australian Natl Univ, Math Sci Inst, Canberra, ACT, Australia.;Australian Natl Univ, Integrated Catchment Assessment & Management Ctr, Fenner Sch Environm & Soc, Canberra, ACT, Australia..
    Ganora, Daniele
    Politecn Torino, Dept Environm Land & Infrastruct Engn, Turin, Italy..
    Hermans, Leon
    Delft Univ Technol, Fac Technol Policy & Management, Delft, Netherlands..
    Polo, Maria J.
    Univ Cordoba, Andalusian Inst Earth Syst Res, Res Grp Fluvial Dynam & Hydrol, Cordoba, Spain..
    Xu, Zongxue
    Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Water Sci, Minist Educ, Key Lab Water & Sediment Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China..
    Borga, Marco
    Univ Padua, Dipartimento Territorio & Sistemi Agro Forestali, Padua, Italy..
    Helmschrot, Jorg
    Univ Hamburg, Biodivers Evolut & Ecol Plants BEE, Hamburg, Germany.;SASSCAL Reg Secretariat, Eros, Windhoek, Namibia..
    Toth, Elena
    Univ Bologna, Dept Civil Chem Environm & Mat Engn, Bologna, Italy..
    Ranzi, Roberto
    Univ Brescia, Dept Civil Environm Architectural Engn & Math, Brescia, Italy..
    Castellarin, Attilio
    Univ Bologna, Dept Civil Chem Environm & Mat Engn, Bologna, Italy..
    Hurford, Anthony
    UCL, Dept Civil Environm & Geomat Engn, London, England.;HR Wallingford, Water Management Grp, Wallingford, Oxon, England..
    Brilly, Mitija
    Univ Ljubljana, Fac Civil Engn & Geodesy, Dept Environm Engn, Ljubljana, Slovenia..
    Viglione, Alberto
    Vienna Univ Technol, Inst Hydraul Engn & Water Resources Management, Vienna, Austria..
    Bloeschl, Guenter
    Vienna Univ Technol, Inst Hydraul Engn & Water Resources Management, Vienna, Austria..
    Sivapalan, Murugesu
    Hydrosyst Lab Univ Illinois Urbana Champaign, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Urbana, IL USA.;Hydrosyst Lab Univ Illinois Urbana Champaign, Dept Geog & Geog Informat Sci, Urbana, IL USA..
    Domeneghetti, Alessio
    Univ Bologna, Dept Civil Chem Environm & Mat Engn, Bologna, Italy..
    Marinelli, Alberto
    Univ Bologna, Dept Civil Chem Environm & Mat Engn, Bologna, Italy..
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Adaptation of water resources systems to changing society and environment: a statement by the International Association of Hydrological Sciences2016In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 61, no 16, p. 2803-2817Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We explore how to address the challenges of adaptation of water resources systems under changing conditions by supporting flexible, resilient and low-regret solutions, coupled with on-going monitoring and evaluation. This will require improved understanding of the linkages between biophysical and social aspects in order to better anticipate the possible future co-evolution of water systems and society. We also present a call to enhance the dialogue and foster the actions of governments, the international scientific community, research funding agencies and additional stakeholders in order to develop effective solutions to support water resources systems adaptation. Finally, we call the scientific community to a renewed and unified effort to deliver an innovative message to stakeholders. Water science is essential to resolve the water crisis, but the effectiveness of solutions depends, inter alia, on the capability of scientists to deliver a new, coherent and technical vision for the future development of water systems.

  • 16.
    Ciullo, Alessio
    et al.
    Deltares, Dept Flood Risk Management, Delft, Netherlands.;Univ Bologna, Dept Civil Chem Environm & Mat Engn, DICAM, Bologna, Italy..
    Viglione, Alberto
    Vienna Univ Technol, Inst Hydraul Engn & Water Resources Management, Vienna, Austria..
    Castellarin, Attilio
    Univ Bologna, Dept Civil Chem Environm & Mat Engn, DICAM, Bologna, Italy..
    Crisci, Massimiliano
    Italian Natl Res Council CNR IRPPS, Inst Res Populat & Social Policies, Rome, Italy..
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Socio-hydrological modelling of flood-risk dynamics: comparing the resilience of green and technological systems2017In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 62, no 6, p. 880-891Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This work aims to provide a dynamic assessment of flood risk and community resilience by explicitly accounting for variable human behaviour, e.g. risk-taking and awareness-raising attitudes. We consider two different types of socio-hydrological systems: green systems, whereby societies deal with risk only via non-structural measures, and technological systems, whereby risk is dealt with also by structural measures, such as levees. A stylized model of human-flood interactions is first compared to real-world data collected at two test sites (People's Republic of Bangladesh and the city of Rome, Italy) and then used to explore plausible trajectories of flood risk. The results show that flood risk in technological systems tends to be significantly lower than in green systems. However, technological systems may undergo catastrophic events, which lead to much higher losses. Furthermore, green systems prove to be more resilient than technological ones, which makes them more capable of withstanding environmental and social changes.

  • 17. Collenteur, R. A.
    et al.
    de Moel, H.
    Jongman, B.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    The failed-levee effect: Do societies learn from flood disasters?2015In: Natural Hazards, ISSN 0921-030X, E-ISSN 1573-0840, Vol. 76, no 1, p. 373-388Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Human societies have learnt to cope with flood risks in several ways, the most prominent ways being engineering solutions and adaptive measures. However, from a more sustainable point of view, it can be argued that societies should avoid or at least minimize urban developments in floodplain areas. While many scientists have studied the impact of human activities on flood risk, only a few studies have investigated the opposite relationships, i.e. the impacts of past flood events on floodplain development. In this study, we make an initial attempt to understand the impact of the occurrence of flood disasters on the spatial distribution of population dynamics in floodplain areas. Two different methodologies are used to uncover this relationship, a large-scale study for the USA and a case-study analysis of the 1993 Mississippi flood. The large-scale analysis is performed at county level scale for the whole of the USA and indicates a positive relationship between property damage due to flood events and population growth. The case-study analysis examines a reach of the Mississippi river and the territory, which was affected by flooding in 1993. Contrary to the large-scale analysis, no significant relationship is found in this detailed study. However, a trend of dampened population growth right after the flood followed by an accelerated growth a decade later could be identified in the raw data and linked to explanations found in the literature.

  • 18. Dang, Qian
    et al.
    Konar, Megan
    Reimer, Jeffrey
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Lin, Xiaomen
    Zeng, Ruije
    A theoretical model of water and trade2016In: Advances in Water Resources, ISSN 0309-1708, E-ISSN 1872-9657, Vol. 89, p. 32-41Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Water is an essential input for agricultural production. Agriculture, in turn, is globalized through the trade of agricultural commodities. In this paper, we develop a theoretical model that emphasizes four tradeoffs involving water-use decision-making that are important yet not always considered in a consistent framework. One tradeoff focuses on competition for water among different economic sectors. A second tradeoff examines the possibility that certain types of agricultural investments can offset water use. A third tradeoff explores the possibility that the rest of the world can be a source of supply or demand for a country's water-using commodities. The fourth tradeoff concerns how variability in water supplies influences farmer decision-making. We show conditions under which trade liberalization affect water use. Two policy scenarios to reduce water use are evaluated. First, we derive a target tax that reduces water use without offsetting the gains from trade liberalization, although important tradeoffs exist between economic performance and resource use. Second, we show how subsidization of water-saving technologies can allow producers to use less water without reducing agricultural production, making such subsidization an indirect means of influencing water use decision-making. Finally, we outline conditions under which riskiness of water availability affects water use. These theoretical model results generate hypotheses that can be tested empirically in future work.

  • 19. DI BALDASSARRE, G
    et al.
    LAIO, F
    MONTANARI, A
    Design flood estimation using model selection criteria2009In: Symposium on Role of Hydrology in Water Resource Management, 2009, Vol. 34, p. 606-611Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 20. Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    Floods in a Changing Climate: Inundation Modelling2012Book (Other academic)
  • 21.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Brandimarte, Luigia
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Beven, Keith
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    The seventh facet of uncertainty: wrong assumptions, unknowns and surprises in the dynamics of human-water systems2016In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 61, no 9, p. 1748-1758Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The scientific literature has focused on uncertainty as randomness, while limited credit has been given to what we call here the seventh facet of uncertainty, i.e. lack of knowledge. This paper identifies three types of lack of understanding: (i) known unknowns, which are things we know we don't know; (ii) unknown unknowns, which are things we don't know we don't know; and (iii) wrong assumptions, things we think we know, but we actually don't know. Here we discuss each of these with reference to the study of the dynamics of human-water systems, which is one of the main topics of Panta Rhei, the current scientific decade of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS), focusing on changes in hydrology and society. In the paper, we argue that interdisciplinary studies of socio-hydrological dynamics leading to a better understanding of human-water interactions can help in coping with wrong assumptions and known unknowns. Also, being aware of the existence of unknown unknowns, and their potential capability to generate surprises or black swans, suggests the need to complement top-down approaches, based on quantitative predictions of water-related hazards, with bottom-up approaches, based on societal vulnerabilities and possibilities of failure.

  • 22.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    et al.
    Faculty of Engineering, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy.
    BRATH, A
    MONTANARI, A
    Reliability of different depth-duration-frequency equations for estimating short-duration design storms2006In: Water resources research, ISSN 0043-1397, E-ISSN 1944-7973, Vol. 42, no 12, p. W12501-Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 23.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    et al.
    Univ Bristol, Sch Geog Sci, Bristol BS8 1SS, Avon, England.
    CASTELLARIN, A
    BRATH, A
    Analysis of the effects of levee heightening on flood propagation: example of the River Po, Italy2009In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 54, no 6, p. 1007-1017Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The effects of human activities on flood propagation, during the period 1878-2005, in a 190-km reach of the middle-lower portion of the River Po (Northern Italy) are investigated. A series of topographical, hydrological and inundation data were collected for the 1878 River Po geometry and the June 1879 flood event, characterised by an inundated area of 432 km(2). The aim of the study is two-fold: (1) to show the applicability of flood inundation models in reconstructing historical inundation events, and (2) to assess the effects of human activities during the last century on flood propagation in the middle-lower portion of the River Po. Numerical simulations were performed by coupling a two-dimensional finite element code, TELEMAC-2D, with a one-dimensional finite difference code, HEC-RAS.

  • 24.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    et al.
    Univ Bologna, Fac Civil Engn, DISTART, Bologna, Italy.
    CASTELLARIN, A
    BRATH, A
    Relationships between statistics of rainfall extremes and mean annual precipitation: an application for design-storm estimation in northern central Italy2006In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, ISSN 1027-5606, E-ISSN 1607-7938, Vol. 10, no 4, p. 589-601Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Several hydrological analyses need to be founded on a reliable estimate of the design storm, which is the expected rainfall depth corresponding to a given duration and probability of occurrence, usually expressed in terms of return period. The annual series of precipitation maxima for storm duration ranging from 15 min to 1 day, observed at a dense network of raingauges sited in northern central Italy, are analyzed using an approach based on L-moments. The analysis investigates the statistical properties of rainfall extremes and detects significant relationships between these properties and the mean annual precipitation (MAP). On the basis of these relationships, we developed a regional model for estimating the rainfall depth for a given storm duration and recurrence interval in any location of the study region. The applicability of the regional model was assessed through Monte Carlo simulations. The uncertainty of the model for ungauged sites was quantified through an extensive crossvalidation.

  • 25.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    et al.
    School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, University Road, Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK .
    CASTELLARIN, A
    MONTANARI, A
    BRATH, A
    Probability-weighted hazard maps for comparing different flood risk management strategies: a case study2009In: Natural Hazards, ISSN 0921-030X, E-ISSN 1573-0840, Vol. 50, no 3, p. 479-496Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The study proposes an original methodology for producing probability-weighted hazard maps based on an ensemble of numerical simulations. These maps enable one to compare different strategies for flood risk management. The methodology was applied over a 270-km2 flood-prone area close to the left levee system of a 28-km reach of the river Reno (Northern Central Italy). This reach is characterised by the presence of a weir that allows controlled flooding of a large flood-prone area during major events. The proposed probability-weighted hazard maps can be used to evaluate how a structural measure such as the mentioned weir alters the spatial variability of flood hazard in the study area. This article shows an application by constructing two different flood hazard maps: a first one which neglects the presence of the weir using a regular levee system instead, and a second one that reflects the actual geometry with the weir. Flood hazard maps were generated by combining the results of several inundation scenarios, simulated by coupling 1D- and 2D-hydrodynamic models.

  • 26.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    et al.
    Department of Hydroinformatics and Knowledge Management, UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, Westvest 7, PO Box 3015, 2601 DA Delft, The Netherlands.
    Claps, P
    A hydraulic study on the applicability of flood rating curves2011In: Hydrology Research, ISSN 0029-1277, Vol. 42, no 1, p. 10-19Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Several hydrological studies have shown that river discharge records are affected by significant uncertainty. This uncertainty is expected to be very high for river flow data referred to flood events, when the stage–discharge rating curve is extrapolated far beyond the measurement range. This study examines the standard methodologies for the construction and extrapolation of rating curves to extreme flow depths and shows the need of proper approaches to reduce the uncertainty of flood discharge data. To this end, a comprehensive analysis is performed on a 16▒km reach of the River Po (Italy) where five hydraulic models (HEC-RAS) were built. The results of five topographical surveys conducted during the last 50 years are used as geometric input. The application demonstrates that hydraulically built stage–discharge curves for the five cases differ only for ordinary flows, so that a common rating curve for flood discharges can be derived. This result confirms the validity of statistical approaches to the estimation of the so-called ‘flood rating curve’, a unique stage–discharge curve based on data of contemporaneous annual maxima of stage and discharge values, which appears insensitive to marginal changes in river geometry.

  • 27.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    et al.
    UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education , NL-2601 DA Delft, The Netherlands.
    Elshamy, M
    van Griensven, A
    Soliman, E
    Kigobe, M
    Ndomba, P
    Mutemi, J
    Moges, S
    Xuan, Y Q
    Solomatine, D
    Uhlenbrook, S
    Future hydrology and climate in the River Nile basin: a review2011In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 56, no 2, p. 199-211Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A critical discussion of recent studies that analysed the effects of climate change on the water resources of the River Nile Basin (RNB) is presented. First, current water-related issues on the RNB showing the particular vulnerability to environmental changes of this large territory are described. Second, observed trends in hydrological data (such as temperature, precipitation, river discharge) as described in the recent literature are presented. Third, recent modelling exercises to quantify the effects of climate changes on the RNB are critically analysed. The many sources of uncertainty affecting the entire modelling chain, including climate modelling, spatial and temporal downscaling, hydrological modelling and impact assessment are also discussed. In particular, two contrasting issues are discussed: the need to better recognize and characterize the uncertainty of climate change impacts on the hydrology of the RNB, and the necessity to effectively support decision-makers and propose suitable adaptation strategies and measures. The principles of a code of good practice in climate change impact studies based on the explicit handling of various sources of uncertainty are outlined.

  • 28. Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    et al.
    Kemerink, JS
    Kooy, Michelle
    Brandimarte, Luigia
    Floods and societies: the spatial distribution of water‐related disaster risk and its dynamics2014In: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water, ISSN 2049-1948, Vol. 1, no 2, p. 133-139Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 29.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    et al.
    UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, Delft, the Netherlands.
    Kooy, M.
    Kemerink, J. S.
    Brandimarte, L.
    Towards understanding the dynamic behaviour of floodplains as human-water systems2013In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, ISSN 1027-5606, E-ISSN 1607-7938, Vol. 17, no 8, p. 3235-3244Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper offers a conceptual approach to explore the complex dynamics of floodplains as fully coupled human-water systems. A number of hydrologists have recently investigated the impact of human activities (such as flood control measures, land-use changes, and settlement patterns) on the frequency and severity of floods. Meanwhile, social scientists have shown how interactions between society and waters in deltas and floodplain areas, including the frequency and severity of floods, have an impact on the ways in which social relations unfold (in terms of governance processes, policies, and institutions) and societies are organised (spatially, politically, and socially). However, we argue that the interactions and associated feedback mechanisms between hydrological and social processes remain largely unexplored and poorly understood. Thus, there is a need to better understand how the institutions and governance processes interact with hydrological processes in deltas and floodplains to influence the frequency and severity of floods, while (in turn) hydrological processes co-constitute the social realm and make a difference for how social relations unfold to shape governance processes and institutions. Our research goal, therefore, is not in identifying one or the other side of the cycle (hydrological or social), but in explaining the relationship between them: how, when, where, and why they interact, and to what result for both social relations and hydrological processes? We argue that long time series of hydrological and social data, along with remote sensing data, can be used to observe floodplain dynamics from unconventional approaches, and understand the complex interactions between water and human systems taking place in floodplain areas, across scales and levels of human impacts, and within different hydro-climatic conditions, socio-cultural settings, and modes of governance.

  • 30.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    et al.
    Department of Hydroinformatics and Knowledge Management, UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, Delft, The Netherlands.
    Laio, Francesco
    Montanari, Alberto
    Effect of observation errors on the uncertainty of design floods2012In: Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, ISSN 1474-7065, E-ISSN 1873-5193, Vol. 42-44, p. 85-90Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study investigates the uncertainty in the estimation of the design flood induced by errors in flood data. We initially describe and critically discuss the main sources of uncertainty affecting river discharge data, when they are derived using stage-discharge rating curves. Then, different error structures are used to investigate the effects of flood data errors on design flood estimation. Annual maxima values of river discharge observed on the Po River (Italy) at Pontelagoscuro are used as an example. The study demonstrates that observation errors may have a significant impact on the uncertainty of design floods, especially when the rating curve is affected by systematic errors.

  • 31.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. CNDS, S-75236 Uppsala, Sweden..
    Martinez, Fabian
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Kalantari, Zahra
    Stockholm Univ, Dept Phys Geog, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden.;Bolin Ctr Climate Res, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden..
    Viglione, Alberto
    Vienna Univ Technol, Ctr Water Resource Syst, A-1040 Vienna, Austria..
    Drought and flood in the Anthropocene: feedback mechanisms in reservoir operation2017In: Earth System Dynamics, ISSN 2190-4979, E-ISSN 2190-4987, Vol. 8, no 1, p. 1-9Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Over the last few decades, numerous studies have investigated human impacts on drought and flood events, while conversely other studies have explored human responses to hydrological extremes. Yet, there is still little understanding about the dynamics resulting from their interplay, i.e. both impacts and responses. Current quantitative methods therefore can fail to assess future risk dynamics and, as a result, while risk reduction strategies built on these methods often work in the short term, they tend to lead to unintended consequences in the long term. In this paper, we review the puzzles and dynamics resulting from the interplay of society and hydrological extremes, and describe an initial effort to model hydrological extremes in the Anthropocene. In particular, we first discuss the need for a novel approach to explicitly account for human interactions with both drought and flood events, and then present a stylized model simulating the reciprocal effects between hydrological extremes and changing reservoir operation rules. Lastly, we highlight the unprecedented opportunity offered by the current proliferation of big data to unravel the coevolution of hydrological extremes and society across scales and along gradients of social and hydrological conditions.

  • 32.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    et al.
    Department of Hydroinformatics and Knowledge Management, UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, Delft, The Netherlands.
    Montanari, A
    Uncertainty in river discharge observations: a quantitative analysis2009In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, ISSN 1027-5606, E-ISSN 1607-7938, Vol. 13, no 6, p. 913-921Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study proposes a framework for analysing and quantifying the uncertainty of river flow data. Such uncertainty is often considered to be negligible with respect to other approximations affecting hydrological studies. Actually, given that river discharge data are usually obtained by means of the so-called rating curve method, a number of different sources of error affect the derived observations. These include: errors in measurements of river stage and discharge utilised to parameterise the rating curve, interpolation and extrapolation error of the rating curve, presence of unsteady flow conditions, and seasonal variations of the state of the vegetation (i.e. roughness). This study aims at analysing these sources of uncertainty using an original methodology. The novelty of the proposed framework lies in the estimation of rating curve uncertainty, which is based on hydraulic simulations. These latter are carried out on a reach of the Po River (Italy) by means of a one-dimensional (1-D) hydraulic model code (HEC-RAS). The results of the study show that errors in river flow data are indeed far from negligible.

  • 33.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    et al.
    Department of Hydroinformatics and Knowledge Management, UNESCO-IHE, Delft, Netherlands.
    Montanari, A
    Lins, H
    Koutsoyiannis, D
    Brandimarte, L
    Bloschl, G
    Flood fatalities in Africa: From diagnosis to mitigation2010In: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 37, no 22, p. L22402-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Flood-related fatalities in Africa, as well as associated economic losses, have increased dramatically over the past half-century. There is a growing global concern about the need to identify the causes for such increased flood damages. To this end, we analyze a large, consistent and reliable dataset of floods in Africa. Identification of causes is not easy given the diverse economic settings, demographic distribution and hydro-climatic conditions of the African continent. On the other hand, many African river basins have a relatively low level of human disturbance and, therefore, provide a unique opportunity to analyze climatic effects on floods. We find that intensive and unplanned human settlements in flood-prone areas appears to be playing a major role in increasing flood risk. Timely and economically sustainable actions, such as the discouragement of human settlements in flood-prone areas and the introduction of early warning systems are, therefore, urgently needed.

  • 34.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden.;IHE Delft Inst Water Educ, Delft, Netherlands..
    Nohrstedt, Daniel
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Government. Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden..
    Mård, Johanna
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden..
    Burchardt, Steffi
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Mineralogy Petrology and Tectonics. Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden..
    Albin, Cecilia
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden..
    Bondesson, Sara
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Government. Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden.; Swedish Def Univ, Stockholm, Sweden..
    Breinl, Korbinian
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden..
    Deegan, Frances M.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Mineralogy Petrology and Tectonics. Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden..
    Fuentes, Diana
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden..
    Lopez, Marc Girons
    Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden.;Univ Zurich, Dept Geog, Zurich, Switzerland..
    Granberg, Mikael
    Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden.;Karlstad Univ, Ctr Climate & Safety, Karlstad, Switzerland..
    Nyberg, Lars
    Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden.;Karlstad Univ, Ctr Climate & Safety, Karlstad, Switzerland..
    Nyman, Monika Rydstedt
    Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden.;Karlstad Univ, Ctr Climate & Safety, Karlstad, Switzerland..
    Rhodes, Emma
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Mineralogy Petrology and Tectonics. Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden..
    Troll, Valentin
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Mineralogy Petrology and Tectonics. Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden..
    Young, Stephanie
    Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden.;Swedish Def Univ, Stockholm, Sweden..
    Walch, Colin
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden.; Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Polit Sci, Berkeley, CA USA..
    Parker, Charles F.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Government. Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden..
    An Integrative Research Framework to Unravel the Interplay of Natural Hazards and Vulnerabilities2018In: Earth's Future, ISSN 1384-5160, E-ISSN 2328-4277, Vol. 6, no 3, p. 305-310Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Climate change, globalization, urbanization, social isolation, and increased interconnectedness between physical, human, and technological systems pose major challenges to disaster risk reduction (DRR). Subsequently, economic losses caused by natural hazards are increasing in many regions of the world, despite scientific progress, persistent policy action, and international cooperation. We argue that these dramatic figures call for novel scientific approaches and new types of data collection to integrate the two main approaches that still dominate the science underpinning DRR: the hazard paradigm and the vulnerability paradigm. Building from these two approaches, here we propose a research framework that specifies the scope of enquiry, concepts, and general relations among phenomena. We then discuss the essential steps to advance systematic empirical research and evidence-based DRR policy action. Plain Language Summary The recent deadly earthquake in Iran-Iraq has been yet another reminder of the topicality of natural hazards, and it has come just after an unprecedented series of catastrophic events, including the extensive flooding in South Asia and the string of devastating hurricanes in the Americas. He we identify three main puzzles in the nexus of natural hazards and vulnerabilities, and demonstrate how novel approaches are needed to solve them with reference to a flood risk example. Specifically, we show how a new research framework can guide systematic data collections to advance the fundamental understanding of socionatural interactions, which is an essential step to improve the development of policies for disaster risk reduction.

  • 35.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    et al.
    UNESCO-IHE Delft, The Netherlands.
    Schumann, G
    Recent advances in mapping and modelling flood processes in lowland areas2011In: Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, ISSN 1474-7065, E-ISSN 1873-5193, Vol. 36, no 7-8, p. 221-222Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 36.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    et al.
    School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, University Road, Bristol BS8 1SS, U.
    SCHUMANN, G
    BATES, P
    Near real time satellite imagery to support and verify timely flood modelling2009In: Hydrological Processes, ISSN 0885-6087, E-ISSN 1099-1085, Vol. 23, no 5, p. 799-803Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The study investigates the capability of coarse resolution synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery to support flood inundation models. A hydraulic model of a 98-km reach of the River Po (Northern Italy) was calibrated on the October 2000 high-magnitude flood event with extensive and high-quality field data. During the June 2008, low-magnitude flood event a SAR image was acquired and processed in near real time (NRT) in order to provide adequate data for quick verification and recalibration of the hydraulic model.

  • 37.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    et al.
    School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, University Road, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK.
    SCHUMANN, G
    BATES, PD
    A technique for the calibration of hydraulic models using uncertain satellite observations of flood extent2009In: Journal of Hydrology, ISSN 0022-1694, E-ISSN 1879-2707, Vol. 367, no 3-4, p. 276-282Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper presents a methodology to calibrate hydraulic models using possibility of inundation maps derived from satellite imagery. The study was performed on a river reach of the Lower Dee, UK, where a coarse resolution image (ENVISAT ASAR) and high resolution satellite image (ERS-2 SAR) were acquired at the same time during the December 2006 flood event. Ten different flood extent maps were derived from the two flood images by using five different procedures to process these data. These flood extent maps were used to perform a sensitivity analysis of a simple raster-based inundation model (LISFLOOD-FP). The sensitivity analysis enabled us to investigate the capability of the two different resolution images to calibrate the friction parameters of the flood inundation model. The analysis showed that the optimal parameters of the model depend on the type of satellite image used to evaluate the model as well as on the particular procedure used to derive the flood extent map. Finally, the study developed a novel methodology to calibrate flood inundation models by comparing the model results to a possibility of inundation map obtained by combining the ten different flood extent maps.

  • 38.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    et al.
    Department of Hydroinformatics and Knowledge Management, UNESCO-IHE, Delft, The Netherlands.
    Schumann, G
    Brandimarte, L
    Bates, P
    Timely Low Resolution SAR Imagery To Support Floodplain Modelling: a Case Study Review2011In: Surveys in geophysics, ISSN 0169-3298, E-ISSN 1573-0956, Vol. 32, no 3, p. 255-269Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 39. Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    et al.
    Schumann, G.
    Brandimarte, L.
    Bates, P.
    Lacoste-Francis, H.
    Coarse resolution SAR imagery to support flood inundation models in near real time2010In: ESA SP, ISSN 0379-6566, E-ISSN 1609-0438Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 40. Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    et al.
    Schumann, Guy
    Bates, Paul D.
    Freer, Jim E.
    Beven, Keith J.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Flood-plain mapping: a critical discussion of deterministic and probabilistic approaches2010In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 55, no 3, p. 364-376Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Different methodologies for flood-plain mapping are analysed and discussed by comparing deterministic and probabilistic approaches using hydrodynamic numerical solutions. In order to facilitate the critical discussion, state-of-art techniques in the field of flood inundation modelling are applied to a specific test site (River Dee, UK). Specifically, different flood-plain maps are derived for this test site. A first map is built by applying an advanced deterministic approach: use of a fully two-dimensional finite element model (TELEMAC-2D), calibrated against a historical flood extent, to derive a 1-in-100 year flood inundation map. A second map is derived by using a probabilistic approach: use of a simple raster-based inundation model (LISFLOOD-FP) to derive an uncertain flood extent map predicting the 1-in-100 year event conditioned on the extent of the 2006 flood. The flood-plain maps are then compared and the advantages and disadvantages of the two different approaches are critically discussed.

  • 41.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    et al.
    UNESCO-IHE, Institute for Water Education, 2601 DA Delft, The Netherlands.
    Uhlenbrook, Stefan
    Is the current flood of data enough?: A treatise on research needs for the improvement of flood modelling2012In: Hydrological Processes, Vol. 26, no 1, p. 153-158Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Flood disasters account for more than 40% of all natural hazardsworldwide and about half of all deaths caused by natural catastrophes(Ohl and Tapsell, 2000). For instance, in 2010, according to theEmergency Events Database (EM-DAT, 2011) floods were responsible forthe loss of more than 8000 human lives and affected about 180 millionpeople. The catastrophic floods in Pakistan and Australia are the mostrecent examples of a worldwide increasing human exposure to flood risk.Figure 1 reports the number of fatalities caused by floods in Africa inthe period 1950–2009 (EM-DAT, 2011).The diagram shows that the number of flood fatalities in Africa hasdramatically increased by more than an order of magnitude in the last60 years (Figure 1). These dramatic figures indicate a need for urgentactions to decrease these staggering numbers (Di Baldassarreet al.,2010a).The flood risk is likely to grow further because of many factors,such as changing demographics, land use changes, climate variabilityand change, technological and socio-economic conditions, industrialdevelopment, urban expansion and infrastructure construction in flood-prone areas as well as unplanned human settlement in floodplains(UN-ISDR Scientific and Technical Committee, 2009). To mitigate thecontinuously increasing flood risk the currently proposed approach isintegrated flood management (more towards ‘living with floods’) that hasreplaced the more traditional flood defense approach (‘fighting floods’).This approach aims to minimize the human, economic and ecologicallosses from extreme floods while at the same time maximising the social,economic and ecological benefits of ordinary floods (e.g. UNESCO-IFI:International Flood Initiative).In this context, the aim of this commentary is twofold. First, to criti-cally discuss the current opportunities for improving flood modelling,which are offered by the increased availability of new data sources,such as the utilisation of remote sensing data of higher resolution andthe increasing availability of globally and freely accessible space-bornedata. Second, to discuss knowledge gaps and research needs to fullyand properly exploit this current ‘flood of data’ (Lincoln, 2007) andimprove flood modelling. This leads to the proposed elements of a futureresearch agenda to support the scientific basis of integrated flood management.

  • 42.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    et al.
    Department of Integrated Water Systems and Governance, UNESCO-IHE, Delft, the Netherlands.
    Viglione, A.
    Carr, G.
    Kuil, L.
    Salinas, J. L.
    Blöschl, G.
    Socio-hydrology: conceptualising human-flood interactions2013In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, ISSN 1027-5606, E-ISSN 1607-7938, Vol. 17, no 8, p. 3295-3303Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Over history, humankind has tended to settle near streams because of the role of rivers as transportation corridors and the fertility of riparian areas. However, human settlements in floodplains have been threatened by the risk of flooding. Possible responses have been to resettle away and/or modify the river system by building flood control structures. This has led to a complex web of interactions and feedback mechanisms between hydrological and social processes in settled floodplains. This paper is an attempt to conceptualise these interplays for hypothetical human-flood systems. We develop a simple, dynamic model to represent the interactions and feedback loops between hydrological and social processes. The model is then used to explore the dynamics of the human-flood system and the effect of changing individual characteristics, including external forcing such as technological development. The results show that the conceptual model is able to reproduce reciprocal effects between floods and people as well as the emergence of typical patterns. For instance, when levees are built or raised to protect floodplain areas, their presence not only reduces the frequency of flooding, but also exacerbates high water levels. Then, because of this exacerbation, higher flood protection levels are required by society. As a result, more and more flooding events are avoided, but rare and catastrophic events take place.

  • 43.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Viglione, Alberto
    Carr, Gemma
    Kuil, Linda
    Yan, Kun
    Brandimarte, Luigia
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Bloeschl, Guenter
    Perspectives on socio-hydrology: Capturing feedbacks between physical and social processes2015In: Water resources research, ISSN 0043-1397, E-ISSN 1944-7973, Vol. 51, no 6, p. 4770-4781Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 44.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Yan, Kun
    Ferdous, Md. Ruknul
    Brandimarte, Luigia
    The interplay between human population dynamics and flooding in Bangladesh: a spatial analysis2014In: Evolving Water Resources Systems: Understanding, Predicting and Managing Water-Society Interactions, 2014, p. 188-191Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In Bangladesh, socio-economic and hydrological processes are both extremely dynamic and interrelated. Human population patterns are often explained as a response, or adaptation strategy, to physical events, e.g. flooding, salt-water intrusion, and erosion. Meanwhile, these physical processes are exacerbated, or mitigated, by diverse human interventions, e.g. river diversion, levees and polders. In this context, this paper describes an attempt to explore the complex interplay between floods and societies in Bangladeshi floodplains. In particular, we performed a spatially-distributed analysis of the interactions between the dynamics of human settlements and flood inundation patterns. To this end, we used flooding simulation results from inundation modelling, LISFLOOD-FP, as well as global datasets of population distribution data, such as the Gridded Population of the World (20 years, from 1990 to 2010) and HYDE datasets (310 years, from 1700 to 2010). The outcomes of this work highlight the behaviour of Bangladeshi floodplains as complex human water systems and indicate the need to go beyond the traditional narratives based on one-way cause effects, e.g. climate change leading to migrations.

  • 45. Domeneghetti, Alessio
    et al.
    Gandolfi, Stefano
    Castellarin, Attilio
    Brandimarte, Luigia
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Barbarella, Maurizio
    Brath, Armando
    Flood risk mitigation in developing countries: deriving accurate topographic data for remote areas under severe time and economic constraints2015In: Journal of Flood Risk Management, Vol. 8, no 4, p. 301-314Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 46. Dottori, F.
    et al.
    Di Baldassarre, G.
    Todini, E.
    Detailed data is welcome, but with a pinch of salt: Accuracy, precision, and uncertainty in flood inundation modeling2013In: Water resources research, ISSN 0043-1397, E-ISSN 1944-7973, Vol. 49, no 9, p. 6079-6085Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 47.
    Durand, M.
    et al.
    Ohio State Univ, Sch Earth Sci, Columbus, OH 43210 USA.;Ohio State Univ, Byrd Polar & Climate Res Ctr, Columbus, OH 43210 USA..
    Gleason, C. J.
    Univ Massachusetts, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Amherst, MA 01003 USA..
    Garambois, P. A.
    INSA Strasbourg, Dept Civil Engn, Fluid Mech Team, ICUBE, Strasbourg, France..
    Bjerklie, D.
    USGS, Connecticut Water Sci Ctr, Hartford, CT USA..
    Smith, L. C.
    Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Geog, Los Angeles, CA 90024 USA..
    Roux, H.
    Univ Toulouse, Inst Mecan Fluides Toulouse, INPT, UPS, Toulouse, France.;CNRS, IMFT, Toulouse, France..
    Rodriguez, E.
    NASA, Jet Prop Lab, Pasadena, CA USA..
    Bates, P. D.
    Univ Bristol, Sch Geog Sci, Bristol, Avon, England..
    Pavelsky, T. M.
    Univ N Carolina, Dept Geol Sci, Chapel Hill, NC USA..
    Monnier, J.
    INSA, Inst Math Toulouse, Toulouse, France..
    Chen, X.
    NOAA NWS Ohio River Forecast Ctr, Wilmington, OH USA..
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Fiset, J. -M
    Flipo, N.
    PSL Res Univ, MINES ParisTech, Ctr Geosci, Paris, France..
    Frasson, R. P. D. M.
    Ohio State Univ, Sch Earth Sci, Columbus, OH 43210 USA.;Ohio State Univ, Byrd Polar & Climate Res Ctr, Columbus, OH 43210 USA..
    Fulton, J.
    USGS Colorado Water Sci Ctr, Lakewood, CO USA..
    Goutal, N.
    Univ Paris Est, St Venant Lab Hydraul & EDF R&D, Champs Sur Marne, France..
    Hossain, F.
    Univ Washington, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Seattle, WA 98195 USA..
    Humphries, E.
    Univ N Carolina, Dept Geol Sci, Chapel Hill, NC USA..
    Minear, J. T.
    USGS Geomorphol & Sediment Transport Lab, Golden, CO USA..
    Mukolwe, M. M.
    UNESCO IHE Inst Water Educ, Delft, Netherlands..
    Neal, J. C.
    Univ Bristol, Sch Geog Sci, Bristol, Avon, England..
    Ricci, S.
    CERFACS CNRS, CECI, Toulouse, France..
    Sanders, B. F.
    Univ Calif Irvine, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Irvine, CA USA..
    Schumann, G.
    Univ Bristol, Sch Geog Sci, Bristol, Avon, England.;Remote Sensing Solut Inc, Monrovia, CA USA..
    Schubert, J. E.
    Univ Calif Irvine, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Irvine, CA USA..
    Vilmin, L.
    PSL Res Univ, MINES ParisTech, Ctr Geosci, Paris, France..
    An intercomparison of remote sensing river discharge estimation algorithms from measurements of river height, width, and slope2016In: Water resources research, ISSN 0043-1397, E-ISSN 1944-7973, Vol. 52, no 6, p. 4527-4549Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission planned for launch in 2020 will map river elevations and inundated area globally for rivers >100 m wide. In advance of this launch, we here evaluated the possibility of estimating discharge in ungauged rivers using synthetic, daily remote sensing measurements derived from hydraulic models corrupted with minimal observational errors. Five discharge algorithms were evaluated, as well as the median of the five, for 19 rivers spanning a range of hydraulic and geomorphic conditions. Reliance upon a priori information, and thus applicability to truly ungauged reaches, varied among algorithms: one algorithm employed only global limits on velocity and depth, while the other algorithms relied on globally available prior estimates of discharge. We found at least one algorithm able to estimate instantaneous discharge to within 35% relative root-mean-squared error (RRMSE) on 14/16 nonbraided rivers despite out-of-bank flows, multichannel planforms, and backwater effects. Moreover, we found RRMSE was often dominated by bias; the median standard deviation of relative residuals across the 16 nonbraided rivers was only 12.5%. SWOT discharge algorithm progress is therefore encouraging, yet future efforts should consider incorporating ancillary data or multialgorithm synergy to improve results.

  • 48. Ebrahim, Girma Yimer
    et al.
    Jonoski, Andreja
    van Griensven, Ann
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    Downscaling technique uncertainty in assessing hydrological impact of climate change in the Upper Beles River Basin, Ethiopia2013In: Hydrology Research, ISSN 1998-9563, Vol. 44, no 2, p. 377-398Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 49. Elshamy, Mohamed
    et al.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    van Griensven, Ann
    Characterizing Climate Model Uncertainty Using an Informal Bayesian Framework: Application to the River Nile2013In: Journal of hydrologic engineering, ISSN 1084-0699, E-ISSN 1943-5584, Vol. 18, no 5, p. 582-589Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 50.
    Fuentes–Andino, Diana
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Centre for Natural Disaster Science (CNDS).
    Beven, Keith
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Institute of Environmental and Natural Sciences, Lancaster University.
    Halldin, Sven
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Centre for Natural Disaster Science (CNDS).
    Xu, Chong-Yu
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo.
    Reynolds, Eduardo
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Centre for Natural Disaster Science (CNDS).
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Centre for Natural Disaster Science (CNDS).
    Reproducing an extreme flood with uncertain post-event information2017In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, ISSN 1812-2108, E-ISSN 1812-2116, Vol. 21, no 7, p. 3597-3618Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Studies for the prevention and mitigation of floods require information on discharge and extent of inundation, commonly unavailable or uncertain, especially during extreme events. This study was initiated by the devastating flood in Tegucigalpa, the capital of Honduras, when Hurricane Mitch struck the city. In this study we hypothesized that it is possible to estimate, in a trustworthy way considering large data uncertainties, this extreme 1998 flood discharge and the extent of the inundations that followed from a combination of models and post-event measured data. Postevent data collected in 2000 and 2001 were used to estimate discharge peaks, times of peak, and high-water marks. These data were used in combination with rain data from two gauges to drive and constrain a combination of well-known modelling tools: TOPMODEL, Muskingum-Cunge-Todini routing, and the LISFLOOD-FP hydraulic model. Simulations were performed within the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) uncertainty-analysis framework. The model combination predicted peak discharge, times of peaks, and more than 90% of the observed highwater marks within the uncertainty bounds of the evaluation data. This allowed an inundation likelihood map to be produced. Observed high-water marks could not be reproduced at a few locations on the floodplain. Identifications of these locations are useful to improve model set-up, model structure, or post-event data-estimation methods. Rainfall data were of central importance in simulating the times of peak and results would be improved by a better spatial assessment of rainfall, e. g. from radar data or a denser rain-gauge net-work. Our study demonstrated that it was possible, considering the uncertainty in the post-event data, to reasonably reproduce the extreme Mitch flood in Tegucigalpa in spite of no hydrometric gauging during the event. The method proposed here can be part of a Bayesian framework in which more events can be added into the analysis as they become available.

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