A new seismic reflection survey for imaging deeper levels of the end-glacial Parvie fault system in northern Sweden was acquired in June 2014. The Parvie fault system hosts the largest fault scarp so far documented in northern Scandinavia, both in terms of its length and calculated magnitude of the earthquake that generated it. Present-day microearthquakes occur along the length of the fault scarp on the eastern side of the scarp, in general agreement with an east-dipping main fault. In the central section of the fault system, where there is a number of subsidiary faults east of the main Parvie scarp, it has been unclear how the earthquakes relate to the structures mapped at the surface. A seismic profile across the Parvie fault system acquired in 2007, with a mechanical hammer as a source, showed a good correlation between the surface mapped faults and moderate to steeply dipping reflections. The most pronounced reflectors could be mapped to about 3 km depth. In the new seismic survey, for deeper penetration an explosive source with a maximum charge size of 8.34 kg in 20 m deep shot holes was used. Reflectors can now be traced to deeper levels with the main 65A degrees east-dipping fault interpreted as a weakly reflective structure. As in the previous profile, there is a strongly reflective 60A degrees west-dipping structure present to the east of the main fault that can now be mapped to about 8 km depth. Extrapolations of the main and subsidiary faults converge at a depth of about 11.5 km, where current earthquake activity is concentrated, suggesting their intersection has created favorable conditions for seismic stress release. Based on the present and previous seismic reflection data, we propose potential locations for future boreholes for scientific drilling into the fault system. These boreholes will provide a better understanding of the reflective nature of the fault structures and stress fields along the faults at depth.
Using an empirical Green’s function (EGF) approach and data from local to regional distances we analyzed rupture propagation directivity in the three mainshocks (ML 6.0–6.1) and in six of the largest aftershocks (ML 5.0 – 5.5) of the 2017 Kerman, Iran, seismic sequence. The EGF procedure was based on data from smaller events (ML 4.0 – 4.8). Deconvolution was applied separately to P and S phases. Using the P-wave data, we calculated relative source-time functions and examined azimuthal variations in rupture duration. In the S-wave analysis, we investigated along strike rupture directivity of the mainshocks and the largest aftershocks by evaluating azimuthal variation of the amplitude spectra. Two of the mainshocks and four of the aftershocks clearly showed rupture propagation from the south-east toward the north-west. The third mainshock and one of the aftershocks suggested almost bilateral rupture propagation, and one aftershock showed rupture directivity to the southeast. It seems that the rupture propagation direction in the area is generally to the north-west and the events which have different propagation directions are located within the NW and SE ends of the faulting area. We suggest that the general rupture propagation direction in the area is steered by regional tectonic stress field regarding the faulting orientations which have been affected by stress redistribution around a restraining bend.
An intraplate earthquake doublet, with 11-min delay between the events, devastated the city of Varzeghan in northwestern Iran on August 11, 2012. The first Mw 6.5 strike-slip earthquake, which occurred after more than 200 years of low seismicity, was followed by an Mw 6.4 oblique thrust event at an epicentral separation of about 6 km. While the first event can be associated with a distinct surface rupture, the absence of a surface fault trace and no clear aftershock signature makes it challenging to identify the fault plane of the second event. We use teleseismic body wave inversion to deduce the slip distribution in the first event. Using both P and SH waves stabilize the inversion and we further constrain the result with the surface rupture extent and the aftershock distribution. The obtained slip pattern shows two distinct slip patches with dissimilar slip directions where aftershocks avoid high-slip areas. Using the estimated slip for the first event, we calculate the induced Coulomb stress change on the nodal planes of the second event and find a preference for higher Coulomb stress on the N-S nodal plane. Assuming a simple slip model for the second event, we estimate the combined Coulomb stress changes from the two events on the focal planes of the largest aftershocks. We find that 90% of the aftershocks show increased Coulomb stress on one of their nodal planes when the N-S plane of the second event is assumed to be the correct fault plane.
Postglacial faults in northern Fennoscandia have been investigated through geophysical methods, trenching, and mapping of brittle deformation structures. Very little is known about postglacial faults through direct measurements. A few short, up to 500 m deep, boreholes exist. Plans for a scientific drilling program were initiated in 2010. The drilling target has been identified: The Pärvie Fault system is the longest known postglacial fault in the world and has been proposed to have hosted an M8 earthquake near the end or just after the last glaciation. Further, this fault system is still microseismically active. The drill sites are north of the Arctic Circle, in a sparsely populated area. Existing site survey data, established logistics, and societal relevance through the fault’s proximity to mining and energy operations make this fault system an appropriate target. The International Continental Scientific Drilling Program approved a full drilling proposal in October 2019. This chapter presents an abbreviated version of the approved proposal.
A broad uplift occurs in Iceland in response to the retreat of ice caps, which began circa 1890. Until now, this deformation signal has been measured primarily using GPS at points some distance away from the ice caps. Here, for the first time we use satellite radar interferometry (interferometric synthetic aperture radar) to constrain uplift of the ground all the way up to the edge of the largest ice cap, Vatnajokull. This allows for improved constraints on the Earth rheology, both the thickness of the uppermost Earth layer that responds only in an elastic manner and the viscosity below it. The interferometric synthetic aperture radar velocities indicate a maximum displacement rate of 24 +/- 4 and 31 +/- 4 mm/yr at the edge of Vatnajokull, during 1995-2002 and 2004-2009, respectively. The fastest rates occur at outlet glaciers of low elevation where ice retreat is high. We compare the observations with glacial isostatic adjustment models that include the deglaciation history of the Icelandic ice caps since 1890 and two Earth layers. Using a Bayesian approach, we derived probability density functions for the average Earth model parameters for three satellite tracks. Based on our assumptions, the three best fit models give elastic thicknesses in the range of 15-40 km, and viscosities ranging from 4-10x1018 Pa s.
Traditional earthquake location relying on first arrival picking is challenging for microseismic events with low signal-to-noise ratio. Over the past years, alternative procedures have been explored based on the idea of migrating the energy of an earthquake back into its source position by stacking along theoretical traveltime curves. To avoid destructive interference of signals with opposite polarity, it is common to transform the input signals into positive time-series. Stacking-based source location has been successfully applied at various scales, but existing studies differ considerably in the choice of characteristic function, the amount of pre-processing and the phases used in the analysis. We use a data set of 62 natural microearthquakes recorded on a 2-D seismic array of 145 vertical geophones across the glacially triggered Burtrask fault to compare the performance of five commonly used characteristic functions: the noise filtered seismograms and the semblance, the envelope, the short-term average/long-term average ratio and the kurtosis gradient of the seismograms. We obtain the best results for a combined P- and S-wave location using a polarity-sensitive characteristic function, that is the filtered seismograms or the semblance. In contrast, the absolute functions often fail to align the signals properly, yielding biased location estimates. Moreover, we observe that the success of the procedure is very sensitive to noise suppression and signal shaping prior to stacking. Our study demonstrates the usefulness of including lower quality S-wave data to improve the location estimates. Furthermore, our results illustrate the benefits of retaining the phase information for location accuracy and noise suppression. To ensure optimal location results, we recommend carefully pre-processing the data and test different characteristic functions for each new data set. Despite the suboptimal array geometry, we obtain good locations for most events within similar to 30-40 km of the survey and the locations are consistent with an image of the fault trace from an earlier reflection seismic survey.
In this paper we test whether or not structural and morphological features inherited from the Eurasian continental margin are affecting the contemporary stress and strain fields in south-central Taiwan. Principal stress directions (sigma(1), sigma(2) and sigma(3)) are estimated from the inversion of clustered earthquake focal mechanisms and the direction of the maximum compressive horizontal stress (S-H) is calculated throughout the study area. From these data the most likely fault plane orientations and their kinematics are inferred. The results of the stress inversion are then discussed together with the directions of displacement, compressional strain rate and maximum shear strain rate derived from GPS data. These data show that there is a marked contrast in the direction of SH from north to south across the study area, with the direction of SH remaining roughly subparallel to the relative plate motion vector in the north, whereas in the south it rotates nearly 45 degrees counter-clockwise. The direction of the horizontal maximum compression strain rate (epsilon(H)) and associated maximum shear planes, together with the displacement field display an overall similar pattern between them, although undergoing a less marked rotation. We interpret the southward change in the SH, eH and the dextral maximum shear plane directions, together with that of the horizontal displacement field to be related to the reactivation of east-northeast striking faults inherited from the rifted Eurasian margin and to the shelf/slope break. Inherited faults in the basement are typically reactivated as strike-slip faults, whereas newly formed faults in the fold-and-thrust belt are commonly thrusts or oblique thrusts. Eastwards, the stress inversions and strain data show that the western flank of the Central Range is undergoing extension in the upper crust. SH in the Central Range is roughly parallel to the relative plate convergence vector, but in southwestern Taiwan it undergoes a marked counter-clockwise rotation westwards across the Chaochou fault. Farther north, however, there is no significant change across the Lishan fault. This north to south difference is likely due to different margin structures, although local topographic effects may also play a role.
Distinguishing between different types of seismic events is a task typically performed manually by expert analysts and can thus be both time and resource expensive. Analysts at the Swedish National Seismic Network (SNSN) use four different event types in the routine analysis: natural (tectonic) earthquakes, blasts (e.g. from mines, quarries and construction) and two different types of mining-induced events associated with large, underground mines. In order to aid manual event classification and to classify automatic event definitions, we have used fully connected neural networks to implement classification models which distinguish between the four event types. For each event, we bandpass filter the waveform data in 20 narrow-frequency bands before dividing each component into four non-overlapping time windows, corresponding to the P phase, P coda, S phase and S coda. In each window, we compute the root-mean-square amplitude and the resulting array of amplitudes is then used as the neural network inputs. We compare results achieved using a station-specific approach, where individual models are trained for each seismic station, to a regional approach where a single model is trained for the whole study area. An extension of the models, which distinguishes spurious phase associations from real seismic events in automatic event definitions, has also been implemented. When applying our models to evaluation data distinguishing between earthquakes and blasts, we achieve an accuracy of about 98 per cent for automatic events and 99 per cent for manually analysed events. In areas located close to large underground mines, where all four event types are observed, the corresponding accuracy is about 90 and 96 per cent, respectively. The accuracy when distinguishing spurious events from real seismic events is about 95 per cent. We find that the majority of erroneous classifications can be traced back to uncertainties in automatic phase picks and location estimates. The models are already in use at the SNSN, both for preliminary type predictions of automatic events and for reviewing manually analysed events.
The dynamic and static stress perturbations generated in an earthquake affect the stability of faults and fractures in the vicinity of the rupture. Estimates of co-seismic near-fault stress effects can be made using numerical simulations. Here, we study the co-seismic stress evolution close to an earthquake using two different models to simulate the rupture. One model is the linear slip-weakening (SW) model, where a spontaneous earthquake rupture is simulated. We compare this to a constant rupture velocity time-weakening (TW) model, which we implement in four different instances of rupture velocity Vr and strength reduction time interval Δtred. We evaluate the near-fault stress effects using the Coulomb Failure Stress (CFS), which we calculate from the stress evolution at various positions relative to the rupture plane. The results show that the TW method is capable of generating similar secondary effects as those generated by the SW model. However, the assumption of constant values of Δtred and Vr implies that there will always be locations on the rupture plane where these values are incompatible. We also see that variationsin Δtred and Vr have a significant impact on the results. Particularly, Vr is important for how the stresses around the rupture front are superimposed, and is thus important for the temporal evolution and spatial distribution of CFS around the fault. Lower Vr tends to generate a gentler near-fault stress evolution and lower peak CFS values. The results also indicate that not only the momentary value of Vr is important for the secondary stress effects at a near-fault position passed by the rupture, but also the integrated Vr-history up to that position.
Co-seismic displacements on fractures and faults close to large earthquakes may not contribute significantly to the shaking hazard for surface infrastructures. However, for deep geological nuclear waste repositories, such secondary displacements could, if large enough, damage intersected waste containers and constitute a significant long-term safety concern. To study how the potential for such displacements may depend on the earthquake rupture evolution, we simulate dynamic earthquake ruptures, and calculate the co-seismic evolution of Coulomb Failure Stress (CFS) on hypothetical fracture planes in the near-fault continuum. Poroelastic coupling is accounted for via Skempton’s coefficient B. We study three cases: (1) A planar fault with homogeneous properties. (2) A planar fault where the dynamic friction increases gradually along the fault edge to obtain a gentler rupture arrest. (3) An undulated fault with fractal properties. For Case 3, we consider ten different fault surface realizations. Since the undulations reduce fault slip, we also run models with adjusted dynamic friction coefficients, such that they generate seismic moments on par with that of Case 1. We observe the following: (i) The initial stress field, rather than the co-seismic stress effects, is the dominating influence on the fracture orientations that obtain the highest CFS values. (ii) Lower slip gradients and less fault slip in Case 2 reduce the maximum CFS by 10-15% relative to the reference case. (iii) Fault roughness may increase CFS locally by tens of percent. (iv) Given our reference value of B=0.5, B-value variations of ±0.5 would give CFS variations of ±20%, at most.
Most magmatic systems on Earth are located at actively deforming plate boundaries. In these systems, the magmatic and plate boundary deformation signals are intertwined and must be deconvolved to properly estimate magma flux and source characteristics of the magma plumbing system. We investigate the inter-rifting and inter-seismic deformation signals at the Eastern Volcanic Zone (EVZ) - South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ) ridge - transform intersection and estimate the location, depth, and volume rate for magmatic sources at Hekla and Torfajokull volcanoes, which are located at the intersection. We solve simultaneously for the source parameters of the tectonic and volcanic deformation signals using a new ten-year velocity field derived from a dense network of episodic and continuous GPS stations in south Iceland. We find the intersection of the axes of the EVZ and the SISZ is located within the Torfajokull caldera, which itself is subsiding. Deformation at Hekla is statistically best described in terms of a horizontal ellipsoidal magma chamber at 24(2)(+4) km depth aligned with the volcanic system and increasing in volume by 0.017(-0.002)(+0.007) km(3) per year. A spherical magma chamber centered at 24(-2)(+5) km depth with a volume rate of 0.019(-0.002)(+0.011) km(3) per year, or a vertical pipe-shaped magma chamber between 10(-1)(+3) km and 21(-4)(+7) km with a volume rate of 0.008(-0.001)(+0.003) km(3) per year are also plausible models explaining the deformation at Hekla. All three models indicate magma accumulation in the lower crust or near the Moho under Hekla.
This chapter investigates the Fennoscandian uplift area since the latest Ice Age and addresses the question if glacial isostatic adjustment may influence current seismicity. The region is in an intraplate area, with stresses caused by the lithospheric relative plate motions. Discussions on whether uplift and plate tectonics are the only causes of stress have been going on for many years in the scientific community.
This review considers the improved sensitivity of the seismograph networks, and at the same time attempts to omit man-made explosions and mining events in the pattern, to present the best possible earthquake pattern. Stress orientations and their connection to the uplift pattern and known tectonics are evaluated. Besides plate motion and uplift, one finds that some regions are affected stress-wise by differences in geographical sediment loading as well as by topography variations. The stress release in the present-day earthquakes shows a pattern that deviates from that of the time right after the Ice Age. This chapter treats the stress pattern generalized for Fennoscandia and guides the interested reader to more details in the national chapters.
Using spectral amplitudes from the South Iceland Lowland (SIL) seismic network, we conduct a relative moment tensor inversion (RMTI) on aftershocks of the June 1998 M-w 5: 4 event that occurred at the Hengill triple junction, southwest Iceland. Three distinct groups of spatially clustered events are observed in the region for 25 selected events that occurred during the period from 4-5 June 1998. These clusters have previously been relocated with very high accuracy using cross-correlation techniques. We use the RMTI method to determine the focal mechanisms of these events and compare our results with the SIL network mechanisms obtained using spectral amplitudes. Most focal mechanisms obtained in this study show a predominantly right-lateral strike-slip motion, similar to those obtained by the SIL network, but more consistently in agreement with the orientations of the surface faults in the area. The spectral amplitude grouping method was used to investigate discrepancies between some of the focal mechanisms obtained using RMTI and the method used in the SIL network. This resolved apparent differences in the focal mechanism solutions for two of the studied events. Cluster alignment across the presumed fault and the individual event mechanisms agree well, suggesting the occurrence of the events along a fault plane dipping steeply towards the east. Consistency in the pressure and tension axes of the focal mechanisms suggests that the region was under northeast-southwest-oriented compression during the activity. Decomposition of the moment tensors into double-couple and isotropic components and the resulting insignificant isotropic component also suggests that the styles of failure for the analyzed events was mainly due to shearing.
On 2008 May 29, two magnitude Mw ~ 6 earthquakes occurred on two adjacent N-S faults in the western South Iceland Seismic Zone. The first main shock was followed approximately 3 s later by the rupture on a parallel fault, about 5 km to the west. An intense aftershock sequence was mostly confined to the western fault and an E-W aligned zone, extending west of the main shock region into the Reykjanes oblique rift. In this study, a total of 325 well-constrained focal mechanisms were obtained using data from the permanent Icelandic SIL seismic network and a temporary network promptly installed in the source region following the main shocks, which allowed a high-resolution stress inversion in short time intervals during the aftershock period. More than 800 additional focal mechanisms for the time period 2001-2009, obtained from the permanent SIL network, were analysed to study stress changes associated with the main shocks. Results reveal a coseismic counter-clockwise rotation of the maximum horizontal stress of 11 +/- 10 degrees ( 95 per cent confidence level) in the main rupture region. From previous fault models obtained by inversion of geodetic data, we estimate a stress drop of about half of the background shear stress on the western fault. With a stress drop of 8-10 MPa, the pre-event shear stress is estimated to 16-20 MPa. The apparent weakness of the western fault may be caused by fault properties, pore fluid pressure and the vicinity of the fault to the western rift zone, but may also be due to the dynamic stress increase on the western fault by the rupture on the eastern fault. Further, a coseismic change of the stress regime-from normal faulting to strike-slip faulting-was observed at the northern end of the western fault. This change could be caused by stress heterogeneities, but may also be due to a southward shift in the location of the aftershocks as compared to prior events.
Climate warming at the end of the last glaciation caused ice caps on Icelandic volcanoes to retreat. Removal of surface ice load is thought to have decreased pressures in the underlying mantle, triggering decompression melting, enhanced magma generation and increased volcanic activity(1-3). Present-day climate change could have the same effect, although there may be a time lag of hundreds of years between magma generation and eruption(4,5). However, in addition to increased magma generation, pressure changes associated with ice retreat should also alter the capacity for storing magma within the crust. Here we use a numerical model to evaluate the effect of the current decrease in ice load on magma storage in the crust at the Kverkfjoll volcanic system, located partially beneath Iceland's largest ice cap. We compare the model results with radar and global positioning system measurements of surface displacement and changes in crustal stress between 2007 and 2008, during the intrusion of a deep dyke at Upptyppingar. We find that although the main component of stress recorded during dyke intrusion relates to plate extension, another component of stress is consistent with the stress field caused by the retreating ice cap. We conclude that the retreating ice cap led to enhanced capture of magma within the crust. We suggest that ice-cap retreat can promote magma storage, rather than eruption, at least in the short term.
A peculiar cluster of seismicity near the tip of Sandfellsjokull on the eastern flank of Katla volcano in southern Iceland has been analyzed in detail using data from a temporary seismic network. A total of 300 events were detected between July 2011 and August 2013, most of them from a swarm between December 4th and 12th, 2011. The sparser permanent network detected a small fraction of these events, but also a larger swarm in November 2010. When seismic activity started in this area is uncertain because of changes in the detection capability of the network over time. The events are of low magnitude (-0.5 < ML < 0.5) and the b-value of their magnitude distribution is high (1.6 +/- 0.1). Based on their frequency content (4-25 Hz) and clear P and S arrivals, the events are classified as volcano-tectonic. Two multiplets probably with different source mechanism are identified in their population. The events locate at approximately 3.5 km depth. Most of them are tightly clustered according to double difference relative locations in a volume that is only about 400 m in diameter in all directions. Several events are scattered up to 800 m beneath this volume. There is some suggestion of elongate structure in the cluster with a NNE/SSW strike and a dip of 60 degrees. We argue that these events cannot be due to a glacial or a broad tectonic process. Possibly, a localized source of fluid pressure, e.g., a small magma body at depth may be the source of these events.
Repeating long-period (lp) earthquakes are commonly observed in volcanic regions worldwide. They are usually explained in terms of a volcanic source effect or anomalous propagation through the volcano. Recently, large lp-events have also been associated with the motion of massive ice streams. Our joint analysis of climatic and new seismic data shows that small lp-events observed at Katla volcano, Iceland, are in fact related to ice movement in a steep outlet glacier and not, as previously thought, to volcanic intrusive activity. The over 13000 lp-events recorded since 2000 are consistent in character and magnitude with seasonal changes of the glacier. As the current global warming trend could cause similar earthquake sequences at other glacier covered volcanoes, identifying them as glacial rather than eruption precursors is vital.
Assessing seismic hazard in stable continental regions (SCR) such as Sweden poses unique challenges compared to active seismic regions. With diffuse seismicity, low seismicity rate, few large magnitude earthquakes and little strong motion data, estimating recurrence parameters and determining appropriate attenuation relationships is challenging. This study presents a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Sweden based on a recent earthquake catalogue which includes a large number of events with magnitudes ranging from 5.9 to -1.4, enabling recurrence parameters to be calculated for more source areas than in previous studies, and with less uncertainty. Recent ground motion models developed specifically for stable continental regions, including Fennoscandia, are used in logic trees accounting for their uncertainty and the hazard is calculated using the OpenQuake engine.The results are presented in the form of mean peak ground acceleration (PGA) maps at 475 and 2500 year return periods and hazard curves for four seismically active areas in Sweden. We find the highest hazard in the northernmost part of the country, in the post-glacial fault province. This is in contrast to previous studies, which have not considered the high seismic activity on the post-glacial faults. We also find relatively high hazard along the northeast coast and in southwestern Sweden, whereas the southeast and the mountain region to the northwest have low hazard.For a 475 year return period we estimate the highest PGAs to be 0.04-0.05g, in the far north, and for a 2500 year return period it is 0.1-0.15g in the same area. Significant uncertainties remain to be addressed in regards to the SCR seismicity in Sweden, including the homogenization of small local magnitudes with large moment magnitudes, the occurrence of large events in areas with little prior seismicity and the uncertainties surrounding the potential for large earthquakes on the post-glacial faults in northern Fennoscandia.
We investigate changes in the global reported fatalities from earthquake disasters in theleading global disaster database EM-DAT. Drawing parallels with the Gutenberg-Richterfrequency-magnitude analysis, in terms of disaster frequency versus the number of casual-ties, we see a significant overlap of the curves and improving levels of completeness oversix 20-year periods. This implies a decrease in underreporting with time. We find that theapparent strong upwards trend in the number of (reported) earthquake disasters in EM-DATis caused by a gradually improved reporting primarily of events killing fewer than 10 peo-ple. An implication of our findings is that the true (reported and unreported) number ofearthquake disasters, according to the EM-DAT definition, has been surprisingly constantover, at least, the last 100 years. We also show that the average annual number of peoplekilled in earthquake disasters is relatively unaffected by spurious trends in reporting, and hasremained remarkably constant, at least since the 1960s, despite population increase.
Reflection seismic data were acquired along a c. 23 km long profile over the Pärvie Fault system with a nominal receiver and source spacing of 20 m. An hydraulic breaking hammer was used as a source, generating signals with a penetration depth of about 5–6 km. Steeply dipping reflections from the end-glacial faults are observed, as well as sub-horizontal reflections. The location and orientation of the reflections from the faults agree well with surface geological observations of fault geometries. Reflections from a potential fourth end-glacial fault is observed further to the east along the profile. The more sub-horizontal reflections may originate from gabbroic bodies within the granitic basement or from deeper lying greenstones. Our results indicate that the end-glacial faults dip at moderate to steep dips down to at least 2–3 km depth, and possibly continue at this dip to depths of 6 km. This result has significant implications for determining the state of stress required to activate the faults in the past and in the future.
Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) are a potential heat source in many parts of the world, even in locations where the temperature gradient is relatively low. We present here an integrated study of reflection seismic data, borehole logs and seismicity analysis performed in conjunction with a geothermal exploratory project operated by E.ON in Malmo center dot, Sweden. In 2020, the pre-existing 2.1 km deep FFC-1 borehole through the sedimentary cover was deepened into the crystalline basement to about 3.1 km vertical depth. Combined interpretation of the reflection seismic data and geophysical wireline logs show that most of the reflectivity in the Precambrian basement is likely generated by lenses of mafic amphibolite embedded in a felsic gneissic matrix. The general structural bedding and foliation is gently dipping to sub-horizontal, similar to other locations in southwest Sweden. Fracture frequency is relatively high in the crystalline rock mass, with heavy fracturing in the uppermost part of the crystalline basement, obscuring a clear reflection from the top of the Precambrian. Highly fractured and hydraulically conductive intervals are also found between 2,562 and 2,695 m based on a temperature drop and the interpretation of the geophysical data. Open fractures, both natural and induced, have a clear N-S orientation, contrasting with the expected NW-SE direction based on the orientation of the SorgenfreiTornquist Zone and earthquake fault plane solutions to the north. This difference may be partly explained by local variations in the stress field near the FFC-1 borehole and vairations in the stress field with depth. Despite this, the data from the FFC-1 well provide novel and unique information on the complex physical state of the crystalline basement on the margin of the Fennoscandian Shield, which further addresses the need for obtaining in-situ stress data to fully understand the local stress field prior to any stimulation. A temperature of 84 degrees C measured at 3 km depth indicates that a desired EGS temperature of 120-140 degrees C may be reached at 5-6 km depth, assuming a temperature gradient of about 20 degrees C. If the relatively high fracture frequency and occurrence of fracture zones down to 3.1 km are also present at these target depths, then the FFC-1 location may be suitable for heat extraction if the rock mass is properly characterized before stimulation.
Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) are a potential heat source in many parts of the world, even in locations where the temperature gradient is relatively low. We present here an integrated study of reflection seismic data, borehole logs and seismicity analysis performed in conjunction with a geothermal exploratory project operated by E.ON in Malmö, Sweden. In 2020, the pre-existing 2.1 km deep FFC-1 borehole through the sedimentary cover was deepened into the crystalline basement to about 3.1 km vertical depth. Combined interpretation of the reflection seismic data and geophysical wireline logs show that most of the reflectivity in the Precambrian basement is likely generated by lenses of mafic amphibolite embedded in a felsic gneissic matrix. The general structural bedding and foliation is gently dipping to sub-horizontal, similar to other locations in southwest Sweden. Fracture frequency is relatively high in the crystalline rock mass, with heavy fracturing in the uppermost part of the crystalline basement, obscuring a clear reflection from the top of the Precambrian. Highly fractured and hydraulically conductive intervals are also found between 2,562 and 2,695 m based on a temperature drop and the interpretation of the geophysical data. Open fractures, both natural and induced, have a clear N–S orientation, contrasting with the expected NW–SE direction based on the orientation of the Sorgenfrei-Tornquist Zone and earthquake fault plane solutions to the north. This difference may be partly explained by local variations in the stress field near the FFC-1 borehole and vairations in the stress field with depth. Despite this, the data from the FFC-1 well provide novel and unique information on the complex physical state of the crystalline basement on the margin of the Fennoscandian Shield, which further addresses the need for obtaining in-situ stress data to fully understand the local stress field prior to any stimulation. A temperature of 84°C measured at 3 km depth indicates that a desired EGS temperature of 120–140°C may be reached at 5–6 km depth, assuming a temperature gradient of about 20°C. If the relatively high fracture frequency and occurrence of fracture zones down to 3.1 km are also present at these target depths, then the FFC-1 location may be suitable for heat extraction if the rock mass is properly characterized before stimulation.
Reflection seismic data were acquired along a ca. 22 km long profile over the end-glacial Burtrask fault with a nominal receiver and source spacing of 20 m. A steeply dipping reflection can be correlated to the Burtrask fault, indicating that the fault dips at about 55 degrees to the southeast near the surface. The reflection from the fault is rather poorly imaged, probably due to a lateral offset in the fault of about 1 km at this location and the crookedness of the seismic profile in the vicinity of the fault. A more pronounced steeply dipping reflection is observed about 4 km southeast of the Burtrask fault. Based on its correlation with a topographic low at the surface this reflection is interpreted to originate from a fracture zone. There are no signs of large displacements along this zone as the glacial ice receded, but earthquakes could be associated with it today. Other reflections on the processed seismic section may originate from changes in lithological variations in the supra-crustal rocks or from intrusions of more mafic rock. Constraints on the fault geometry provided by the reflection seismic data will help determine what stresses were required to activate the fault when the major rupture along it occurred ca. 9500 years ago.
Reflection seismic data were acquired along a ca. 22 km long profile over the end-glacial Burträsk Fault with a nominal receiver and source spacing of 20 m. A steeply dipping reflection can be correlated to the Burträsk Fault, indicating that the fault dips at about 55° to the southeast near the surface. The reflection from the fault is rather poorly imaged, probably due to a jump in the fault and the crookedness of the seismic profile in the vicinity of the fault. A more pronounced steeply dipping reflection is observed about 4 km southeast of the Burträsk Fault. Based on its correlation with a topographic low at the surface this reflection is interpreted to originate from a fracture zone. There are no signs of large displacements along this fault as the glacial ice receded, but it may be active today. Other reflections on the processed seismic section may originate from changes in lithological variations in the supra-crustal rocks or from intrusions of more mafic rock. Constraints on the fault geometry provided by the reflection seismic data will help determine what stresses were required to activate the fault when the major rupture along it occurred.
Induced seismicity is often associated with fluid injection but only rarely linked to surface deformation. At the Hellisheidi geothermal power plant in south-west Iceland we observe up to 2 cm of surface displacements during 2011–2012, indicating expansion of the crust. The displacements occurred at the same time as a strong increase in seismicity was detected and coincide with the initial phase of geothermal wastewater reinjection at Hellisheidi. Reinjection started on September 1, 2011 with a flow rate of around 500 kg/s. Micro-seismicity increased immediately in the area north of the injection sites, with the largest seismic events in the sequence being two M4 earthquakes on October 15, 2011. Semi-continuous GPS sites installed on October 15 and 17, and on November 2, 2011 reveal a transient signal which indicates that most of the deformation occurred in the first months after the start of the injection. The surface deformation is evident in ascending TerraSAR-X data covering June 2011 to May 2012 as well. We use an inverse modeling approach and simulate both the InSAR and GPS data to find the most plausible cause of the deformation signal, investigating how surface deformation, seismicity and fluid injection may be connected to each other. We argue that fluid injection caused an increase in pore pressure which resulted in increased seismicity and fault slip. Both pore pressure increase and fault slip contribute to the surface deformation.
We present a modeling technique for generating synthetic ground motions, aimed at earthquakes of design significance for critical structures and ground motions at distances corresponding to the engineering near field, in which real data are often missing. We use dynamic modeling based on the finite‐difference approach to simulate the rupture process within a fault, followed by kinematic modeling to generate the ground motions. The earthquake source ruptures were modeled using the 3D distinct element code (Itasca, 2013). We then used the complete synthetic program by Spudich and Xu (2002) to simulate the propagation of seismic waves and to obtain synthetic ground motions. In this work, we demonstrate the method covering the frequency ranges of engineering interests up to 25 Hz and quantify the differences in ground motion generated. We compare the synthetic ground motions for distances up to 30 km with a ground‐motion prediction equation, which synthesizes the expected ground motion and its randomness based on observations. The synthetic ground motions can be used to supplement observations in the near field for seismic hazard analysis. We demonstrate the hybrid approach to one critical site in the Fennoscandian Shield, northern Europe.
The distribution of waiting times between time-neighbouring events for a time series obeying the Omori law is examined theoretically and numerically with the aim of understanding the characteristics of these distributions, how these characteristics change (e.g. scale) with the parameters of the Omori series, and thus how empirical waiting time data may be correctly interpreted. It is found that the waiting time distribution, for a single Omori aftershock sequence, consists in general of two power law segments followed by a rapid decay at larger waiting times. The analyses are illustrated using real data from the SIL network on Iceland. This data often shows characteristics predominantly consistent with the Omori law, but there are significant exceptions. We conclude that waiting time distributions and related statistical analysis has meaningful potential for the analysis of earthquake data sets, as a step towards developing physical models of the earthquake process.
Repeating long-period (lp) earthquakes are commonly8 observed in volcanic regions worldwide. They are usually9 explained in terms of a volcanic source effect or anomalous10 propagation through the volcano. Recently, large lp events11 have also been associated with the motion of massive ice12 streams. Our joint analysis of climatic and new seismic data13 shows that small lp events observed at Katla volcano, Iceland,14 are in fact related to ice movement in a steep outlet glacier and15 not, as previously thought, to volcanic intrusive activity. The16 over 13000 lp events recorded since 2000 are consistent in17 character and magnitude with seasonal changes of the glacier.18 As the current global warming trend could cause similar19 earthquake sequences at other glacier covered volcanoes,20 identifying them as glacial rather than eruption precursors21 is vital.
The Katla volcano, overlain by the Mýrdalsjökull glacier, is one of the most active and hazardous volcanoes in Iceland. Earthquakes show anomalous magnitude-frequency behaviour and mainly occur in two distinct areas: within the oval caldera and around Goðabunga, a bulge on its western flank. The seismicity differs between the areas; earthquakes in Goðabunga are low frequency and shallow whereas those beneath the caldera occur at greater depths and are volcano-tectonic. The seismicity shows seasonal variations but the rates peak at different times in the two areas. A snow budget model, which gives an estimate of the glacial loading, shows good correlation with seismic activity on an annual scale. Data recorded by the permanent network South Iceland Lowland (SIL), as well as by a temporary network, are used to invert for a 3D seismic velocity model underneath Eyjafjallajökull, Goðabunga and the Katla caldera. The tomography resolves a 15 km wide, aseismic, high-velocity structure at a depth of more than 4 km between the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in the west and the Katla volcano in the east. Anomalously low velocities are observed beneath the Katla caldera, which is interpreted as being a significantly fractured area of anomalously high temperature.
At 155 km, the Parvie fault is the world's longest known endglacial fault (EGF). It is located in northernmost Sweden in a region where several kilometre-scale EGFs have been identified. Based on studies of Quaternary deposits, landslides and liquefaction structures, these faults are inferred to have ruptured as large earthquakes when the latest ice sheet disappeared from the region, some 9500 yr ago. The EGFs still exhibit relatively high seismic activity, and here we present new earthquake data from northern Sweden in general and the Parvie fault in particular. More than 1450 earthquakes have been recorded in Sweden north of 66A degrees latitude in the years 2000-2013. There is a remarkable correlation between this seismicity and the mapped EGF scarps. We find that 71 per cent of the observed earthquakes north of 66A degrees locate within 30 km to the southeast and 10 km to the northwest of the EGFs, which is consistent with the EGFs' observed reverse faulting mechanisms, with dips to the southeast. In order to further investigate the seismicity along the Parvie fault we installed a temporary seismic network in the area between 2007 and 2010. In addition to the routine automatic detection and location algorithm, we devised a waveform cross-correlation technique which resulted in a 50 per cent increase of the catalogue and a total of 1046 events along the Parvie fault system between 2003 and 2013. The earthquakes were used to establish an improved velocity model for the area, using 3-D local earthquake tomography. The resulting 3-D velocity model shows smooth, minor velocity variations in the area. All events were relocated in this new 3-D model. A tight cluster on the central part of the Parvie fault, where the rate of seismicity is the highest, could be relocated with high precision relative location. We performed depth phase analysis on 40 of the larger events to further constrain the hypocentral locations. We find that the seismicity on the Parvie fault correlates very well with the mapped surface trace of the fault. The events do not align along a well-defined fault plane at depth but form a zone of seismicity that dips between 30A degrees and 60A degrees to the southeast of the surface fault trace, with distinct along-strike variations. The seismic zone extends to approximately 35 km depth. Using this geometry and earthquake scaling relations, we estimate that the endglacial Parvie earthquake had a magnitude of 8.0 +/- A 0.4.