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  • 1.
    Lombardi, Stefano
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics. Uppsala University, Units outside the University, Office of Labour Market Policy Evaluation.
    Essays on Event History Analysis and the Effects of Social Programs on Individuals and Firms2019Doctoral thesis, monograph (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Essay I: This paper studies threat effects of unemployment insurance (UI) benefit sanctions on job exit rates. Using a difference-in-differences design, I exploit two reforms of the Swedish UI system that made monitoring and sanctions considerably stricter at different points in time for different jobseeker groups. I find that men and long-term unemployed respond to the stricter UI rules by finding jobs faster. I also estimate the effect of receiving a sanction on the job exit rates, and find significant sanction imposition effects. However, a decomposition exercise shows that these effects explain very little of the overall reform effects, which instead are driven the threat of sanction imposition.

    Essay II (with Gerard J. van den Berg and Johan Vikström): We use an Empirical Monte Carlo design and rich administrative data to generate realistic placebo treatment durations. First, we highlight important confounders to be controlled for when estimating selection models. Next, we omit some of the covariates used to simulate placebo treatments, and we estimate Timing-of-Events models. The model is generally able to adjust for a large share of the resulting unobserved heterogeneity. However, we find that specifying too many or too few support points to approximate the unobserved heterogeneity distribution leads to large bias. Information criteria that penalize parameter abundance can help selecting the appropriate number of support points.

    Essay III (with Oskar Nordström Skans and Johan Vikström): We study how targeted wage subsidies affect the performance of the recruiting firms. Using Swedish linked employer-employee data from 1998–2008, we show that the firms hiring through subsidies substantially outperform other recruiting firms, despite identical pre-treatment performance levels and trends in a wide set of key dimensions. The pattern is less clear from 2007 onwards, after a reform removed the involvement of caseworkers from the subsidy approval process. Our results suggest that targeted employment subsidies can have large positive effects on outcomes of the hiring firms, at least if the policy environment allows for pre-screening by caseworkers.

    Essay IV (with Raffaella Piccarreta and Marco Bonetti): We propose different methods for comparing the ability of competing non-nested event history models to generate trajectories that are similar to the observed ones. We first introduce alternative criteria to compare pairwise dissimilarities between observed and simulated sequences. Next, we estimate two alternative multi-state models using data on family formation and childbearing decisions from the Dutch Fertility and Family Survey. We use the estimated models to simulate event histories and to illustrate the proposed comparison criteria.

  • 2.
    Lombardi, Stefano
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics. Uppsala University, Units outside the University, Office of Labour Market Policy Evaluation.
    Threat Effects of Monitoring and Unemployment Insurance Sanctions: Evidence from Two ReformsManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper studies threat effects of unemployment insurance (UI) benefit sanctions on job exit rates. Using a difference-in-differences design, I exploit two reforms of the Swedish UI system that made monitoring and sanctions considerably stricter at different points in time for different jobseeker groups. The results show that men and long-term unemployed individuals respond to the tighter monitoring and the threat of sanctions by finding jobs faster, whereas women do not. I also estimate the effect of receiving a sanction on the job exit rates and find significant sanction imposition effects. However, a decomposition exercise shows that these sanction imposition effects explain very little of the overall reform effects, so that most of the reform effects arise through threat effects. A direct policy implication is that the total impact of monitoring and sanctions may be severely underestimated when focusing solely on the effects on those actually receiving sanctions.

  • 3.
    Lombardi, Stefano
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Units outside the University, Office of Labour Market Policy Evaluation. Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics. Uppsala Center For Labor Studies (UCLS), Uppsala, Sweden.
    Nordström Skans, Oskar
    Uppsala University, Units outside the University, Office of Labour Market Policy Evaluation. Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics, Uppsala Center for Fiscal Studies.
    Vikström, Johan
    Uppsala University, Units outside the University, Office of Labour Market Policy Evaluation. Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics, Uppsala Center for Fiscal Studies.
    Targeted wage subsidies and firm performance2018In: Labour Economics, ISSN 0927-5371, E-ISSN 1879-1034, Vol. 53, p. 33-45Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper studies how targeted wage subsidies affect the performance of the recruiting firms. Using Swedish administrative data from the period 1998-2008, we show that treated firms substantially outperform other recruiting firms after hiring through subsidies, despite identical pre-treatment performance levels and trends in a wide set of key dimensions. The pattern is less clear from 2007 onwards, after a reform removed the involvement of caseworkers from the subsidy approval process. Overall, our results suggest that targeted employment subsidies can have large positive effects on post-match outcomes of the hiring firms, at least if the policy environment allows for pre-screening by caseworkers.

  • 4.
    Lombardi, Stefano
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics. Uppsala University, Units outside the University, Office of Labour Market Policy Evaluation.
    van den Berg, Gerard Johannes
    University of Bristol, IFAU, IZA, ZEW, CEPR, J-PAL.
    Vikström, Johan
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics. Uppsala University, Units outside the University, Office of Labour Market Policy Evaluation.
    Empirical Monte Carlo Evidence on Estimation of Timing-of-Events ModelsManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In this paper we use an Empirical Monte Carlo simulation approach to study estimation of Timing-of-Events (ToE) models. We exploit rich Swedish data of jobseekers with information on participation in a training program to simulate placebo treatment durations. We first use these realistic simulations to inspect which covariates are important confounders that needs to be controlled for when estimating selection models. We show that the joint inclusion of specific types of short-term employment history variables (share of time spent in employment), together with baseline socio-economic characteristics, regional and inflow timing information, is able to remove selection bias. Next, we omit some of the covariates of the selection model and estimate ToE models with a discrete support point distribution for the unobserved heterogeneity. The ToE model is able to adjust for a large share of the unobserved heterogeneity, in particular when exploiting calendar-time variation for identification. For the discrete support distribution, we find that using too many or too few mass points generally leads to large bias. Information criteria, in particular those penalizing parameter abundance, can be very useful way to select the number of support points.

  • 5.
    Piccarreta, Raffaella
    et al.
    Bocconi University, Department of Decision Sciences.
    Bonetti, Marco
    Bocconi University, Department of Social and Political Sciences.
    Lombardi, Stefano
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics. Uppsala University, Units outside the University, Office of Labour Market Policy Evaluation.
    Comparing Discrete Time Multi-state Models Using DissimilaritiesManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In this paper we propose different methods for comparing the predictive performance of non-nested event history models. These models are generally used to study transitions across states and over time in a variety of settings, both in biomedical studies and in the social sciences. Our goal is to compare the ability of competing models to generate trajectories that are similar to those observed in the sample at hand. To this aim, we first introduce alternative distance-based criteria to compare pairwise dissimilarities computed between observed and model-generated sequences. Next, we estimate two alternative discrete time semi-Markov models using data on family formation and childbearing decisions from the Dutch Fertility and Family Surveys study. Finally, we use the estimated models to simulate event histories and to illustrate the proposed comparison criteria.

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