2006.06.12 (in Chinese).
This paper extends the VECM cointegration model and PT (permanent-transitory) variance decomposition framework proposed by Lettau & Ludvigson (2004) and applies them on the Swedish data spanning from 1980q1 to 2004q4. There are strong statistical evidences that the movements of aggregate consumption, disposable income, housing wealth and financial wealth are tied together. However, it also suggests that the short run variations in the Swedish housing market are largely dissociated with consumer spending. Meanwhile, it is shown that the strength of the linkage between consumption and housing wealth is not sensitive to different model specifications and various measures of key variables.
This paper extends the VECM cointegration model and PT (permanent-transitory) variance decomposition framework proposed by Lettau and Ludvigson [Lettau, M., Ludvigson, S.C., 2004. Understanding trend and cycle in asset values: reevaluating the wealth effect on consumption. American Economic Review 94 (1), 276-299.] and applies them to Swedish data from 1980q1 to 2004q4. There is strong statistical evidence that the long run movements of aggregate consumption, disposable income, housing wealth, and financial wealth are tied together. However, the evidence also suggests that short run variations in the Swedish housing market are largely dissociated with consumer spending. Meanwhile, it is shown that the strength of the linkage between consumption and housing wealth is not sensitive to different model specifications and various measures of key variables.
This paper analyses the dynamics of the duration of housing allowance claims in Sweden during the period 1991 to 2002. The central concern in this paper is whether the Swedish housing allowance system creates dependence on welfare. Using longitudinal data from Swedish micro database-LINDA, this paper found that there is no evidence of negative duration dependence arising from the duration of housing allowance claims. This finding is consistent across different model specifications and various controls of the heterogeneity issue. Hence we come to the conclusion that a recipient’s exit rate from the system does not decrease over the duration claim. This paper also shows that the demographic characteristics, educational background, labour market status and economic contextual conditions play important roles in determining recipients’ conditional probability of exiting from the housing allowance system. However, there are substantial variations in the factors’ impact across different household types.
This paper analyses the dynamics of the duration of housing allowance claims in Sweden during the period 1991 to 2002. The central concern in this paper is whether the Swedish housing allowance system creates dependence on welfare. Using longitudinal data from Swedish micro-database LINDA, this paper found that there is no evidence of negative duration dependence arising from the duration of housing allowance claims. This finding is consistent across different model specifications and various controls of the heterogeneity issue. Hence we come to the conclusion that a recipient’s exit rate from the system does not
decrease over the duration claim. This paper also shows that the demographic characteristics,
educational background, labour market status and economic contextual conditions play
important roles in determining recipients’ conditional probability of exiting from the housing
allowance system. However, there are substantial variations in the factors’ impact across
different household types.
How the duration of housing allowance spells varies with the generosity of the housing allowance system carries important policy implications. In 1997, the Swedish housing allowance system implemented a drastic reform which substantially affected claimants who were couples with children in terms of their financial incentives to utilise housing allowance benefits. However, at the same time, the 1997 reform largely left single-parent claimants unaffected. Exploiting the quasi-experimental feature of this reform, this paper analyses the impacts of benefit shrinkage on couple-with-children recipients' exit hazards using the DD (difference-in-difference) estimation strategy. Careful attention is given to measuring interaction effects appropriately in non-linear models. The findings in this paper suggest that the 1997 reform led to a sharp increase in the leaving speed of the recipients in the 'couples with children' category.
In this paper we investigate the long-run and short-run relationship between housing investment and economic growth in China using the quarterly province-level panel data for the period 1999 q1 to 2007 q4. Recently developed econometric techniques for panel unit root testing and heterogeneous panel cointegration analysis are employed. The empirical results provide clear support of a stable long-run relationship between housing investment, non-housing investment and GDP in China. We then estimate the long-run elasticity of GDP with respect to housing investment for the whole country as well as three sub regions. The variations across regions are detected and reasons for this fact are discussed. Based on the panel ECM, we show that there is bidirectional Granger causality between housing investment and GDP in both short run and long run for the whole country, while the impacts of housing investment on GDP behave strikingly differently in the three sub-regions of China.
Loess-paleosol sequences are the most intensively studied terrestrial archives used for the reconstruction of Late Pleistocene environmental and climatic changes in the Azov Sea region, southwest Russia. Here we present a refined chronostratigraphy and a multiproxy record of Late Pleistocene environmental dynamics of the most complete and representative loess–paleosol sequences (Beglitsa and Chumbur-Kosa sections) from the Azov Sea region. We propose a new chronostratigraphy following the Chinese and Danubean loess stratigraphic models that refines the subdivision of the Last Interglacial paleosol (S1) complex in two Azov Sea sites, resolve the uncertainty of the stratigraphic position of the weakly developed paleosol (L1SSm) in Beglitsa section, and allow for direct correlation of the Azov Sea sections with those in the Danube Basin and the Chinese Loess Plateau. More importantly, it may serve as a basis for better constraining local and regional chronostratigraphic correlations, and facilitate the interpretation of climatic connections and possible forcing mechanisms responsible for the climatic trends in the region. In addition, a general succession of environmental dynamics is reconstructed from these two vital sections, which is broadly consistent with other loess records in the Dnieper Lowland and Lower Danube Basin, demonstrating similar climatic trends at Glacial–Interglacial time scales. Furthermore, our results have important implications for the chronostratigraphic representativeness of Beglitsa as a key regional loess section and for the reconstruction of the temporal and spatial evolution of Late Pleistocene climate in the Azov Sea region.