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  • 1. Bring, A.
    et al.
    Fedorova, I.
    Dibike, Y.
    Hinzman, L.
    Mård, Johanna
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Mernild, S. H.
    Prowse, T.
    Semenova, O.
    Stuefer, S. L.
    Woo, M-K
    Arctic terrestrial hydrology: A synthesis of processes, regional effects, and research challenges2016In: Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences, ISSN 2169-8953, E-ISSN 2169-8961, Vol. 121, no 3, p. 621-649Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Terrestrial hydrology is central to the Arctic system and its freshwater circulation. Water transport and water constituents vary, however, across a very diverse geography. In this paper, which is a component of the Arctic Freshwater Synthesis, we review the central freshwater processes in the terrestrial Arctic drainage and how they function and change across seven hydrophysiographical regions (Arctic tundra, boreal plains, shield, mountains, grasslands, glaciers/ice caps, and wetlands). We also highlight links between terrestrial hydrology and other components of the Arctic freshwater system. In terms of key processes, snow cover extent and duration is generally decreasing on a pan-Arctic scale, but snow depth is likely to increase in the Arctic tundra. Evapotranspiration will likely increase overall, but as it is coupled to shifts in landscape characteristics, regional changes are uncertain and may vary over time. Streamflow will generally increase with increasing precipitation, but high and low flows may decrease in some regions. Continued permafrost thaw will trigger hydrological change in multiple ways, particularly through increasing connectivity between groundwater and surface water and changing water storage in lakes and soils, which will influence exchange of moisture with the atmosphere. Other effects of hydrological change include increased risks to infrastructure and water resource planning, ecosystem shifts, and growing flows of water, nutrients, sediment, and carbon to the ocean. Coordinated efforts in monitoring, modeling, and processing studies at various scales are required to improve the understanding of change, in particular at the interfaces between hydrology, atmosphere, ecology, resources, and oceans.

  • 2.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden.
    Kreibich, Heidi
    GFZ German Res Ctr Geosci, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany.
    Vorogushyn, Sergiy
    GFZ German Res Ctr Geosci, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany.
    Aerts, Jeroen
    Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, NL-1081 Amsterdam, Netherlands.
    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten
    Tech Univ Denmark, Dept Environm Engn, DK-2800 Lyngby, Denmark.
    Barendrecht, Marlies
    Vienna Univ Technol, Ctr Water Resource Syst, A-1040 Vienna, Austria.
    Bates, Paul
    Univ Bristol, Sch Geog Sci, Bristol BS8 1SS, Avon, England.
    Borga, Marco
    Univ Padua, Dept Land Environm Agr & Forestry, I-35122 Padua, Italy.
    Botzen, Wouter
    Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, NL-1081 Amsterdam, Netherlands;Univ Utrecht, Sch Econ USE, Utrecht, Netherlands.
    Bubeck, Philip
    Univ Potsdam, Inst Earth & Environm Sci, D-14469 Potsdam, Germany.
    De Marchi, Bruna
    Univ Bergen, Ctr Study Sci & Humanities, SVT, N-5020 Bergen, Norway.
    Llasat, Carmen
    Univ Barcelona, Dept Appl Phys, E-08007 Barcelona, Spain.
    Mazzoleni, Maurizio
    IHE Delft, Dept Integrated Water Syst & Governance, NL-2601 Delft, Netherlands.
    Molinari, Daniela
    Politecn Milan, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, I-20133 Milan, Italy.
    Mondino, Elena
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden.
    Mård, Johanna
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden.
    Petrucci, Olga
    CNR, Res Inst Geohydrol Protect, CNR, I-87036 Arcavacata Di Rende, CS, Italy.
    Scolobig, Anna
    Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Dept Environm Syst Sci, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland.
    Viglione, Alberto
    Vienna Univ Technol, Ctr Water Resource Syst, A-1040 Vienna, Austria.
    Ward, Philip J.
    Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, NL-1081 Amsterdam, Netherlands.
    Hess Opinions: An interdisciplinary research agenda to explore the unintended consequences of structural flood protection2018In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, ISSN 1027-5606, E-ISSN 1607-7938, Vol. 22, no 11, p. 5629-5637Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    One common approach to cope with floods is the implementation of structural flood protection measures, such as levees or flood-control reservoirs, which substantially reduce the probability of flooding at the time of implementation. Numerous scholars have problematized this approach. They have shown that increasing the levels of flood protection can attract more settlements and high-value assets in the areas protected by the new measures. Other studies have explored how structural measures can generate a sense of complacency, which can act to reduce preparedness. These paradoxical risk changes have been described as "levee effect", "safe development paradox" or "safety dilemma". In this commentary, we briefly review this phenomenon by critically analysing the intended benefits and unintended effects of structural flood protection, and then we propose an interdisciplinary research agenda to uncover these paradoxical dynamics of risk.

  • 3.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden.;IHE Delft Inst Water Educ, Delft, Netherlands..
    Nohrstedt, Daniel
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Government. Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden..
    Mård, Johanna
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden..
    Burchardt, Steffi
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Mineralogy Petrology and Tectonics. Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden..
    Albin, Cecilia
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden..
    Bondesson, Sara
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Government. Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden.; Swedish Def Univ, Stockholm, Sweden..
    Breinl, Korbinian
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden..
    Deegan, Frances M.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Mineralogy Petrology and Tectonics. Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden..
    Fuentes, Diana
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden..
    Lopez, Marc Girons
    Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden.;Univ Zurich, Dept Geog, Zurich, Switzerland..
    Granberg, Mikael
    Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden.;Karlstad Univ, Ctr Climate & Safety, Karlstad, Switzerland..
    Nyberg, Lars
    Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden.;Karlstad Univ, Ctr Climate & Safety, Karlstad, Switzerland..
    Nyman, Monika Rydstedt
    Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden.;Karlstad Univ, Ctr Climate & Safety, Karlstad, Switzerland..
    Rhodes, Emma
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Mineralogy Petrology and Tectonics. Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden..
    Troll, Valentin
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Mineralogy Petrology and Tectonics. Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden..
    Young, Stephanie
    Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden.;Swedish Def Univ, Stockholm, Sweden..
    Walch, Colin
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden.; Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Polit Sci, Berkeley, CA USA..
    Parker, Charles F.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Government. Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden..
    An Integrative Research Framework to Unravel the Interplay of Natural Hazards and Vulnerabilities2018In: Earth's Future, ISSN 1384-5160, E-ISSN 2328-4277, Vol. 6, no 3, p. 305-310Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Climate change, globalization, urbanization, social isolation, and increased interconnectedness between physical, human, and technological systems pose major challenges to disaster risk reduction (DRR). Subsequently, economic losses caused by natural hazards are increasing in many regions of the world, despite scientific progress, persistent policy action, and international cooperation. We argue that these dramatic figures call for novel scientific approaches and new types of data collection to integrate the two main approaches that still dominate the science underpinning DRR: the hazard paradigm and the vulnerability paradigm. Building from these two approaches, here we propose a research framework that specifies the scope of enquiry, concepts, and general relations among phenomena. We then discuss the essential steps to advance systematic empirical research and evidence-based DRR policy action. Plain Language Summary The recent deadly earthquake in Iran-Iraq has been yet another reminder of the topicality of natural hazards, and it has come just after an unprecedented series of catastrophic events, including the extensive flooding in South Asia and the string of devastating hurricanes in the Americas. He we identify three main puzzles in the nexus of natural hazards and vulnerabilities, and demonstrate how novel approaches are needed to solve them with reference to a flood risk example. Specifically, we show how a new research framework can guide systematic data collections to advance the fundamental understanding of socionatural interactions, which is an essential step to improve the development of policies for disaster risk reduction.

  • 4.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. CNDS, Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci, Uppsala, Sweden.
    Sivapalan, Murugesu
    Univ Illinois, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Urbana, IL USA;Univ Illinois, Dept Geog & Geog Informat Sci, Urbana, IL USA.
    Rusca, Maria
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. CNDS, Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci, Uppsala, Sweden.
    Cudennec, Christophe
    INRA, Agrocampus Ouest, UMR SAS, Rennes, France.
    Garcia, Margaret
    Arizona State Univ, Sch Sustainable Engn & Built Environm, Tempe, AZ USA.
    Kreibich, Heidi
    GFZ German Res Ctr Geosci, Potsdam, Germany.
    Konar, Megan
    Univ Illinois, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Urbana, IL USA.
    Mondino, Elena
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. CNDS, Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci, Uppsala, Sweden.
    Mård, Johanna
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. CNDS, Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci, Uppsala, Sweden.
    Pande, Saket
    Delft Univ Technol, Fac Civil Engn & Geosci, Delft, Netherlands.
    Sanderson, Matthew R.
    Delft Univ Technol, Dept Water Management, Delft, Netherlands.
    Tian, Fuqiang
    Tsinghua Univ, Dept Hydraul Engn, Beijing, Peoples R China.
    Viglione, Alberto
    Vienna Univ Technol, Inst Hydraul Engn & Water Resources Management, Vienna, Austria;Politecn Torino, Dept Environm Land & Infrastruct Engn DIATI, Turin, Italy.
    Wei, Jing
    Tsinghua Univ, Dept Hydraul Engn, Beijing, Peoples R China.
    Wei, Yongping
    Univ Queensland, Sch Earth & Environm Sci, Brisbane, Qld, Australia.
    Yu, David J.
    Purdue Univ, Lyles Sch Civil Engn, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA;Purdue Univ, Dept Polit Sci, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA.
    Srinivasan, Veena
    Ashoka Trust Res Ecol & Environm, Bangalore, Karnataka, India.
    Bloeschl, Guenter
    Vienna Univ Technol, Inst Hydraul Engn & Water Resources Management, Vienna, Austria.
    Sociohydrology: Scientific Challenges in Addressing the Sustainable Development Goals2019In: Water resources research, ISSN 0043-1397, E-ISSN 1944-7973, Vol. 55, no 8, p. 6327-6355Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the United Nations Agenda 2030 represent an ambitious blueprint to reduce inequalities globally and achieve a sustainable future for all mankind. Meeting the SDGs for water requires an integrated approach to managing and allocating water resources, by involving all actors and stakeholders, and considering how water resources link different sectors of society. To date, water management practice is dominated by technocratic, scenario-based approaches that may work well in the short term but can result in unintended consequences in the long term due to limited accounting of dynamic feedbacks between the natural, technical, and social dimensions of human-water systems. The discipline of sociohydrology has an important role to play in informing policy by developing a generalizable understanding of phenomena that arise from interactions between water and human systems. To explain these phenomena, sociohydrology must address several scientific challenges to strengthen the field and broaden its scope. These include engagement with social scientists to accommodate social heterogeneity, power relations, trust, cultural beliefs, and cognitive biases, which strongly influence the way in which people alter, and adapt to, changing hydrological regimes. It also requires development of new methods to formulate and test alternative hypotheses for the explanation of emergent phenomena generated by feedbacks between water and society. Advancing sociohydrology in these ways therefore represents a major contribution toward meeting the targets set by the SDGs, the societal grand challenge of our time. Plain Language Summary Water crises that humanity faces are increasingly connected and are growing in complexity. As such, they require a more integrated approach in managing water resources, which involves all actors and stakeholders and considers how water resources link different sectors of society. Yet, water management practice is still dominated by technocratic approaches, which emphasize technical solutions. While these approaches may work in the short-term, they often result in unintended consequences in the long-term. Sociohydrology is developing a generalizable understanding of the interactions and feedbacks between natural,technical and social processes, which can improve water management practice. As such, advancing sociohydrology can contribute to address the global water crises and meet the water-related targets defined by the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals.

  • 5.
    Gross, Elisabeth
    et al.
    Stockholm Univ, Dept Phys Geog, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden;Biol Anstalt Helgoland, Helmholtz Zentrum Polar & Meeresforsch, Alfred Wegener Inst, Helgoland, Germany.
    Mård, Johanna
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science, Uppsala University.
    Kalantari, Zahra
    Stockholm Univ, Dept Phys Geog, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden;Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Bring, Arvid
    Stockholm Univ, Dept Phys Geog, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden;Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Links between Nordic and Arctic hydroclimate and vegetation changes: Contribution to possible landscape-scale nature-based solutions2018In: Land Degradation and Development, ISSN 1085-3278, E-ISSN 1099-145X, Vol. 29, no 10, p. 3663-3673Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In Nordic and Arctic regions, the rapidly warming climate sustains hydroclimatic and vegetation changes in the landscape. There is evidence for an increase in vegetation density in some regions, a trend that is expected as a response to increasing temperature and precipitation. If the hydroclimatic changes are linked to vegetation response, it could be viewed as a landscape-scale nature-based solution (NBS) that could moderate the runoff response, as denser vegetation should lead to increased evapotranspiration and lower runoff. In this paper, we investigate and compare hydroclimatic changes over a set of basins in the Nordic region and northwest America and compare with changes in vegetation density, analyzed using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) for three time periods: 1973-1978, 1993-1998, and 2013-2016. Over the period of the 1970s to 1990s, the hydroclimate became warmer and wetter and vegetation density increased, but over a later period from the 1990s to 2010s, vegetation density decreased, despite a continuing warming and wetting of the climate. Although there was a tendency for runoff to decrease in basins where vegetation density increased, the relation between precipitation and runoff was much stronger. Overall, we found weak evidence for vegetation density changes, driven by hydroclimate, to act as NBS on the landscape scale over the studied regions. However, as hydroclimatic changes interact with vegetation changes and their ensuing hydrological responses in complex ways, more detailed investigations are needed to determine the potential NBS effect on the landscape scale across Nordic and Arctic regions.

  • 6.
    Kreibich, H.
    et al.
    Section 5.4 Hydrology, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Centre of Natural hazards and Disaster Science (CNDS), Uppsala, Sweden.
    Vorogushyn, S.
    Section 5.4 Hydrology, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany.
    Aerts, J.C.J.H.
    Department of Water and Climate Risk, Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
    Apel, H.
    Section 5.4 Hydrology, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany.
    Aronica, G.T.
    Department of Engineering, University of Messina, Messina, Italy.
    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.
    Urban Water Systems Section, Department of Environmental Engineering, Bygningstorvet, Technical University of Denmark, Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark.
    Bouwer, L.M.
    Deltares, Delft, The Netherlands.
    Bubeck, P.
    Institute of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany.
    Caloiero, T.
    CNR-ISAFOM National Research Council, Institute for Agricultural and Forest Systems in the Mediterranean, Rende, Italy.
    Chinh, D.T.
    Section 5.4 Hydrology, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany.
    Cortès, M.
    GAMA, Department of Applied Physics, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain.
    Gain, A.K.
    Section 5.4 Hydrology, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany.
    Giampà, V.
    CNR-IRPI National Research Council, Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection, Rende, Italy.
    Kuhlicke, C.
    Department Urban & Environmental Sociology, UFZ Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Leipzig, Germany.
    Kundzewicz, Z.W.
    Institute for Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Poznań, Poland.
    Lliasat, M.C.
    GAMA, Department of Applied Physics, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain.
    Mård, Johanna
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Centre of Natural hazards and Disaster Science (CNDS), Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.
    Matczak, P.
    Institute of Sociology, Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznan, Poland.
    Mazzoleni, M.
    Integrated Water Systems & Governance, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, Delft, The Netherlands.
    Molinari, D.
    Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy.
    Dung, N.V.
    Section 5.4 Hydrology, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany.
    Petrucci, O.
    CNR-IRPI National Research Council, Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection, Rende, Italy.
    Schröter, K.
    Section 5.4 Hydrology, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany.
    Slager, K.
    Deltares, Delft, The Netherlands.
    Thieken, A.H.
    Institute of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany.
    Ward, P.J.
    Department of Water and Climate Risk, Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
    Merz, B.
    Section 5.4 Hydrology, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany.
    Adaptation to flood risk: results of international paired flood event studies2017In: Earth's Future, ISSN 1384-5160, E-ISSN 2328-4277, Vol. 5, no 10, p. 953-965Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    As flood impacts are increasing in large parts of the world, understanding the primary drivers of changes in risk is essential for effective adaptation. To gain more knowledge on the basis of empirical case studies, we analyze eight paired floods, i.e. consecutive flood events that occurred in the same region, with the second flood causing significantly lower damage. These success stories of risk reduction were selected across different socio-economic and hydro-climatic contexts. The potential of societies to adapt is uncovered by describing triggered societal changes, as well as formal measures and spontaneous processes that reduced flood risk. This novel approach has the potential to build the basis for an international data collection and analysis effort to better understand and attribute changes in risk due to hydrological extremes in the framework of the IAHSs Panta Rhei initiative. Across all case studies, we find that lower damage caused by the second event was mainly due to significant reductions in vulnerability, e.g. via raised risk awareness, preparedness and improvements of organizational emergency management. Thus, vulnerability reduction plays an essential role for successful adaptation. Our work shows that there is a high potential to adapt, but there remains the challenge to stimulate measures that reduce vulnerability and risk in periods in which extreme events do not occur.

  • 7.
    Mård, Johanna
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Box, Jason
    Brown, Ross
    Mack, Michelle
    Mernild, Sebastian
    Walker, Donald
    Walsh, John
    Cross-cutting scientific issues. In: Snow Water Ice Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA)2017Report (Refereed)
  • 8.
    Mård, Johanna
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Mazzoleni, Maurizio
    IHE Delft Institute for Water Education.
    Nighttime light data reveal how flood protection shapes human proximity to rivers2018In: Science Advances, ISSN 2375-2548, Vol. 4, no 8, article id eaar5779Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    To understand the spatiotemporal changes of flood risk, we need to determine the way in which humans adapt and respond to flood events. One adaptation option consists of resettling away from flood-prone areas to prevent or reduce future losses. We use satellite nighttime light data to discern the relationship between long-term changes in human proximity to rivers and the occurrence of catastrophic flood events. Moreover, we explore how these relationships are influenced by different levels of structural flood protection. We found that societies with low protection levels tend to resettle further away from the river after damaging flood events. Conversely, societies with high protection levels show no significant changes in human proximity to rivers. Instead, such societies continue to rely heavily on structural measures, reinforcing flood protection and quickly resettling in flood-prone areas after a flooding event. Our work reveals interesting aspects of human adaptation to flood risk and offers key insights for comparing different risk reduction strategies. In addition, this study provides a framework that can be used to further investigate human response to floods, which is relevant as urbanization of floodplains continues and puts more people and economic assets at risk.

  • 9.
    Mård Karlsson, Johanna
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för naturgeografi och kvartärgeologi (INK).
    Arnberg, Wolter
    Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för naturgeografi och kvartärgeologi (INK).
    Quality analysis of SRTM and HYDRO1K: a case study of flood inundation in Mozambique2011In: International Journal of Remote Sensing, ISSN 0143-1161, E-ISSN 1366-5901, Vol. 32, no 1, p. 267-285Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Many countries still lack national digital elevation models (DEMs) and have to rely on global datasets, which can negatively influence the reliability of flood model results. Mozambique is considered the most risk prone country for floods in Southern Africa. In this study a quality and accuracy assessment of two global DEMs (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) and HYDRO1K) is presented for a simple static flood inundation model of lower Limpopo Basin. This is accomplished with a local fit and vertical accuracy assessment of global datasets on a local scale as well as simulations of flood extent in the floodplain carried out by filling the DEMs with water according to the 2000 flood event. The results from the vertical accuracy assessment show that global DEMs can be used on a local scale. However, flood simulations performed on original DEMs contain inadequacies and are misleading with both under-and overestimation of the flooded area, while simulation performed on locally fitted DEMs shows a better agreement with the actual event. This study clearly shows that DEMs with questionable accuracy and resolution should be used with great caution in flood inundation modelling because they could result in deceptive model predictions, and lead to devastating after-effects in risk prone areas.

  • 10.
    Mård Karlsson, Johanna
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för naturgeografi och kvartärgeologi (INK).
    Bring, Arvid
    Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för naturgeografi och kvartärgeologi (INK).
    Peterson, Garry D.
    Stockholms universitet, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Gordon, Line J.
    Stockholms universitet, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för naturgeografi och kvartärgeologi (INK).
    Opportunities and limitations to detect climate-related regime shifts in inland Arctic ecosystems through eco-hydrological monitoring2011In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 6, no 1, p. 014015-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study has identified and mapped the occurrences of three different types of climate-driven and hydrologically mediated regime shifts in inland Arctic ecosystems: (i) from tundra to shrubland or forest, (ii) from terrestrial ecosystems to thermokarst lakes and wetlands, and (iii) from thermokarst lakes and wetlands to terrestrial ecosystems. The area coverage of these shifts is compared to that of hydrological and hydrochemical monitoring relevant to their possible detection. Hotspot areas are identified within the Yukon, Mackenzie, Barents/Norwegian Sea and Ob river basins, where systematic water monitoring overlaps with ecological monitoring and observed ecosystem regime shift occurrences, providing opportunities for linked eco-hydrological investigations that can improve our regime shift understanding, and detection and prediction capabilities. Overall, most of the total areal extent of shifts from tundra to shrubland and from terrestrial to aquatic regimes is in hydrologically and hydrochemically unmonitored areas. For shifts from aquatic to terrestrial regimes, related water and waterborne nitrogen and phosphorus fluxes are relatively well monitored, while waterborne carbon fluxes are unmonitored. There is a further large spatial mismatch between the coverage of hydrological and that of ecological monitoring, implying a need for more coordinated monitoring efforts to detect the waterborne mediation and propagation of changes and impacts associated with Arctic ecological regime shifts.

  • 11.
    Mård Karlsson, Johanna
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för naturgeografi.
    Jaramillo, Fernando
    Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för naturgeografi.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för naturgeografi.
    Hydro-climatic and lake change patterns in Arctic permafrost and non-permafrost areas2015In: Journal of Hydrology, ISSN 0022-1694, E-ISSN 1879-2707, Vol. 529, p. 134-145Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper investigates patterns of lake-area and hydro-climatic change in Arctic river basins, and possible influence of permafrost change reflected in such patterns. A salient change pattern, emerging across all investigated basins in both permafrost and non-permafrost areas, is an opposite change direction in runoff (R) from that in precipitation (P). To explain this change contrast, an increase (decrease) in relative water-balance constrained evapotranspiration ETwb/P is required where R decreases (increases). Increasing temporal variability of daily river discharge (sdQ) is found in all basins with spatially extensive lake decrease, which also exhibit decrease in ELwb/P. Clear indication of basin-wide permafrost thaw is found in only one basin, and is possible in two more, but unlikely in the largest of the total four investigated permafrost basins.

  • 12.
    Mård Karlsson, Johanna
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för naturgeografi och kvartärgeologi (INK).
    Lyon, Steve W.
    Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för naturgeografi och kvartärgeologi (INK).
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för naturgeografi och kvartärgeologi (INK).
    Temporal Behavior of Lake Size-Distribution in a Thawing Permafrost Landscape in Northwestern Siberia2014In: Remote Sensing, ISSN 2072-4292, E-ISSN 2072-4292, Vol. 6, no 1, p. 621-636Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Arctic warming alters regional hydrological systems, as permafrost thaw increases active layer thickness and in turn alters the pathways of water flow through the landscape. Further, permafrost thaw may change the connectivity between deeper and shallower groundwater and surface water altering the terrestrial water balance and distribution. Thermokarst lakes and wetlands in the Arctic offer a window into such changes as these landscape elements depend on permafrost and are some of the most dynamic and widespread features in Arctic lowland regions. In this study we used Landsat remotely sensed imagery to investigate potential shifts in thermokarst lake size-distributions, which may be brought about by permafrost thaw, over three distinct time periods (1973, 1987-1988, and 2007-2009) in three hydrological basins in northwestern Siberia. Results revealed fluctuations in total area and number of lakes over time, with both appearing and disappearing lakes alongside stable lakes. On the whole basin scales, there is no indication of any sustained long-term change in thermokarst lake area or lake size abundance over time. This statistical temporal consistency indicates that spatially variable change effects on local permafrost conditions have driven the individual lake changes that have indeed occurred over time. The results highlight the importance of using multi-temporal remote sensing data that can reveal complex spatiotemporal variations distinguishing fluctuations from sustained change trends, for accurate interpretation of thermokarst lake changes and their possible drivers in periods of climate and permafrost change.

  • 13.
    Mård Karlsson, Johanna
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för naturgeografi och kvartärgeologi (INK).
    Lyon, Steve W.
    Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för naturgeografi och kvartärgeologi (INK).
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för naturgeografi och kvartärgeologi (INK).
    Thermokarst lake, hydrological flow and water balance indicators of permafrost change in Western Siberia2012In: Journal of Hydrology, ISSN 0022-1694, E-ISSN 1879-2707, Vol. 464, p. 459-466Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Permafrost, mainly of discontinuous type, that underlies the tundra and taiga landscapes of the Nadym and Put river basins in northwestern Siberia has been warming during the recent decades. A mosaic of thermokarst lakes and wetlands dominates this area. In this study we tested the hypothesis chain that permafrost thawing changes thermokarst lake area and number, and is then also reflected in and detectable through other associated hydrological changes. Based on indications from previous studies, the other hydrological changes in a basin were expected to be decreasing intra-annual runoff variability (quantified by decreasing maximum and increasing minimum runoff) and systematically decreasing water storage. To test this hypothesis chain, we mapped thermokarst lake changes using remote sensing analysis and analyzed both climate (temperature and precipitation) and water flow and balance changes using available monthly data records. This was done for the whole Nadym and Pur river basins and a smaller sub-basin of the former (denoted 7129) with comparable data availability as the whole river basins. The results for the 7129 sub-basin show all the indicators (thermokarst lake and other hydrological) changing consistently, as could be expected in response to permafrost thawing that alters the connections between surface and subsurface waters, and leads to overall decreases in water (including ground ice) storage within a basin. Over the Nadym and Pur basins, the relative area influenced by similar permafrost thawing and associated lake and hydrological effects appears (yet) too small to be clearly and systematically reflected in the basin-average indicators for these large basins.

  • 14.
    Mård Karlsson, Johanna
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för naturgeografi och kvartärgeologi (INK).
    Skelton, Alasdair
    Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för geologi och geokemi.
    Sandén, Michael
    Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för geologi och geokemi.
    Ioualalen, Mansour
    Kaewbanjak, Narngrit
    Pophet, Nuttita
    Asavanant, Jack
    von Matern, Axel
    Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för geologi och geokemi.
    Reconstructions of the coastal impact of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami in the Khao Lak area, Thailand2009In: Journal of Geophysical Research, ISSN 0148-0227, E-ISSN 2156-2202, Vol. 114, p. C10023-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Khao Lak, SW Thailand was severely affected by the tsunami on 26 December 2004. Here we present reconstructions of its coastal impact in this area. These are based on (1) eyewitness reports alone and (2) eyewitness reports supported by videos and photos of the tsunami and the damage it caused, field measurements, and satellite imagery. On the basis of eyewitness reports, we estimated that the sea began retreating at 1000 local time (LT) and, based also on photos, that the tsunami arrived at 1026-1029 LT. On the basis of videos of the tsunami, we estimated an offshore wave direction of 083 +/- 3 degrees and on the basis of the paths by which eyewitnesses were carried, we estimated an onshore direction of 088 +/- 6 degrees. On the basis of videos, we calculated that the velocity of the wavefront on its final approach was 33 +/- 4 km/h. We obtained tsunami heights of 7.3 +/- 0.8 m (relative to ground level) on the basis of eyewitness reports and 8.0 +/- 0.6 m (relative to mean sea level) on the basis of field and photographic data. On the basis of eyewitness reports and photos, we concluded that Khao Lak experienced at least two main waves with a period >40 min. From eyewitness reports and satellite imagery, we measured maximum inundation <= 0.5 km in the southern part of the area, which is confined by a steeply sloping hinterland, and <= 1.5 km in the more gently sloping northern part. Comparison between these reconstructions supports the reliability of eyewitness reports as a source of quantitative data, and comparison with the numerical simulation by Ioualalen et al. (2007) supports the validity of the simulation.

  • 15. Prowse, T.
    et al.
    Bring, Arvid
    Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för naturgeografi.
    Mård, Johanna
    Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för naturgeografi.
    Carmack, E.
    Holland, M.
    Instanes, A.
    Vihma, T.
    Wrona, F. J.
    Arctic Freshwater Synthesis: Summary of key emerging issues2015In: Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences, ISSN 2169-8953, E-ISSN 2169-8961, Vol. 120, no 10, p. 1887-1893Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In response to a joint request from the World Climate Research Program's Climate and Cryosphere Project, the International Arctic Science Committee, and the Arctic Council's Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program an updated scientific assessment has been conducted of the Arctic Freshwater System (AFS), entitled the Arctic Freshwater Synthesis (AFS(sigma)). The major reason behind the joint request was an increasing concern that changes to the AFS have produced, and could produce even greater, changes to biogeophysical and socioeconomic systems of special importance to northern residents and also produce extra-Arctic climatic effects that will have global consequences. The AFS(sigma) was structured around six key thematic areas: atmosphere, oceans, terrestrial hydrology, terrestrial ecology, resources, and modeling, the review of each coauthored by an international group of scientists and published as separate manuscripts in this special issue of Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences. This AFS(sigma) summary manuscript reviews key issues that emerged during the conduct of the synthesis, especially those that are cross-thematic in nature, and identifies future research required to address such issues.

  • 16. Prowse, Terry
    et al.
    Bring, Arvid
    Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för naturgeografi.
    Mård, Johanna
    Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för naturgeografi.
    Carmack, Eddy
    Arctic Freshwater Synthesis: Introduction2015In: Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences, ISSN 2169-8953, E-ISSN 2169-8961, Vol. 120, no 11, p. 2121-2131Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In response to a joint request from the World Climate Research Program’s Climate and Cryosphere Project, the International Arctic Science Committee, and the Arctic Council’s Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program, an updated scientific assessment has been conducted of the Arctic Freshwater System, entitled the Arctic Freshwater Synthesis (AFS). The major reason for joint request was an increasing concern that changes to the Arctic Freshwater System have produced, and could produce even greater, changes to biogeophysical and socioeconomic systems of special importance to northern residents and also produce extra-Arctic climatic effects that will have global consequences. Hence, the key objective of the AFS was to produce an updated, comprehensive, and integrated review of the structure and function of the entire Arctic Freshwater System. The AFS was organized around six key thematic areas: atmosphere, oceans, terrestrial hydrology, terrestrial ecology, resources and modeling, and the review of each coauthored by an international group of scientists and published as separate articles in this special section of Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences. This Introduction reviews the motivations for, and foci of, previous studies of the Arctic Freshwater System, discusses criteria used to define the domain of the Arctic Freshwater System, and details key characteristics of the definition adopted for the AFS. 

  • 17.
    Thorslund, Josefin
    et al.
    Stockholm Univ, Dept Phys Geog, Stockholm, Sweden; Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Jarsjö, Jerker
    Stockholm Univ, Dept Phys Geog, Stockholm, Sweden; Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Jaramillo, Fernando
    Stockholm Univ, Dept Phys Geog, Stockholm, Sweden; Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, Stockholm, Sweden; Stockholm Univ, Stockholm Resilience Ctr, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Jawitz, James
    Univ Florida, Soil & Water Sci Dept, Gainesville, USA.
    Manzoni, Stefano
    Stockholm Univ, Dept Phys Geog, Stockholm, Sweden; Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Basu, Nandita B
    Univ Waterloo, Civil & Environm Engn & Earth & Environm Sci, Waterloo, Canada.
    Chalov, Sergey R
    Lomonosov Moscow State Univ, Fac Geog, Moscow, Russia.
    Cohen, Matthew J
    Univ Florida, Sch Forest Resources & Conservat, Gainesville, USAA.
    Creed, Irena F
    Western Univ, Dept Biol, London, ON, Canada.
    Goldenberg, Romain
    Stockholm Univ, Dept Phys Geog, Stockholm, Sweden; Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Hylin, Anna
    Stockholm Univ, Dept Phys Geog, Stockholm, Sweden; Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Kalantari, Zahra
    Stockholm Univ, Dept Phys Geog, Stockholm, Sweden; Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Koussis, Antonis D
    Natl Observ Athens, Inst Environm Res & Sustainable Dev,Athens, Greece.
    Lyon, Steve W.
    Stockholm Univ, Dept Phys Geog, Stockholm, Sweden; Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Mazi, Katerina
    Natl Observ Athens, Inst Environm Res & Sustainable Dev,Athens, Greece.
    Mård, Johanna
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Persson, Klas
    Stockholm Univ, Dept Phys Geog, Stockholm, Sweden; Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Pietron, Jan
    Stockholm Univ, Dept Phys Geog, Stockholm, Sweden; Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Prieto, Carmen
    Stockholm Univ, Dept Phys Geog, Stockholm, Sweden; Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Quin, Andrew
    Stockholm Univ, Dept Phys Geog, Stockholm, Sweden; Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Van Meter, Kimberly
    Univ Waterloo, Civil & Environm Engn & Earth & Environm Sci, Waterloo, ON, Canada.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm Univ, Dept Phys Geog, Stockholm, Sweden; Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, Stockholm, Sweden; Stockholm Univ, Navarino Environm Observ NEO, Messinia, Kalamata, Greece.
    Wetlands as large-scale nature-based solutions: Status and challenges for research, engineering and management2017In: Ecological Engineering: The Journal of Ecotechnology, ISSN 0925-8574, E-ISSN 1872-6992, Vol. 108, no Part B, p. 489-497Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Wetlands are often considered as nature-based solutions that can provide a multitude of services of great social, economic and environmental value to humankind. Changes in land-use, water-use and climate can all impact wetland functions and services. These changes occur at scales extending well beyond the local scale of an individual wetland. However, in practical applications, engineering and management decisions usually focus on individual wetland projects and local site conditions. Here, we systematically investigate if and to what extent research has addressed the large-scale dynamics of landscape systems with multiple wetlands, hereafter referred to as wetlandscapes, which are likely to be relevant for under- standing impacts of regional to global change. Although knowledge in many cases is still limited, evidence suggests that the aggregated effects of multiple wetlands in the landscape can differ considerably from the functions observed at individual wetland scales. This applies to provisioning of ecosystem services such as coastal protection, biodiversity support, groundwater level and soil moisture regulation, flood regulation and contaminant retention. We show that parallel and circular flow-paths, through which wetlands are interconnected in the landscape, may largely control such scale-function differences. We suggest ways forward for addressing the mismatch between the scales at which changes take place and the scale at which observations and implementation are currently made. These suggestions can help bridge gaps between researchers and engineers, which is critical for improving wetland function-effect predictability and management. 

  • 18. Wrona, Frederick J.
    et al.
    Johansson, Margareta
    Culp, Joseph M.
    Jenkins, Alan
    Mard, Johanna
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Myers-Smith, Isla H.
    Prowse, Terry D.
    Vincent, Warwick F.
    Wookey, Philip A.
    Transitions in Arctic ecosystems: Ecological implications of a changing hydrological regime2016In: Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences, ISSN 2169-8953, E-ISSN 2169-8961, Vol. 121, no 3, p. 650-674Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Numerous international scientific assessments and related articles have, during the last decade, described the observed and potential impacts of climate change as well as other related environmental stressors on Arctic ecosystems. There is increasing recognition that observed and projected changes in freshwater sources, fluxes, and storage will have profound implications for the physical, biogeochemical, biological, and ecological processes and properties of Arctic terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. However, a significant level of uncertainty remains in relation to forecasting the impacts of an intensified hydrological regime and related cryospheric change on ecosystem structure and function. As the terrestrial and freshwater ecology component of the Arctic Freshwater Synthesis, we review these uncertainties and recommend enhanced coordinated circumpolar research and monitoring efforts to improve quantification and prediction of how an altered hydrological regime influences local, regional, and circumpolar-level responses in terrestrial and freshwater systems. Specifically, we evaluate (i) changes in ecosystem productivity; (ii) alterations in ecosystem-level biogeochemical cycling and chemical transport; (iii) altered landscapes, successional trajectories, and creation of new habitats; (iv) altered seasonality and phenological mismatches; and (v) gains or losses of species and associated trophic interactions. We emphasize the need for developing a process-based understanding of interecosystem interactions, along with improved predictive models. We recommend enhanced use of the catchment scale as an integrated unit of study, thereby more explicitly considering the physical, chemical, and ecological processes and fluxes across a full freshwater continuum in a geographic region and spatial range of hydroecological units (e.g., stream-pond-lake-river-near shore marine environments).

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