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  • 101.
    Salas Romero, Silvia
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Geophysics.
    Malehmir, Alireza
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Geophysics.
    Snowball, Ian
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Dessirier, Benoît
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Physical geography, Stockholm University.
    Subsurface Characterization of a Quick-Clay Vulnerable Area Using Near-Surface Geophysics and Hydrological Modelling2019In: Solid Earth, ISSN 1869-9510, E-ISSN 1869-9529, Vol. 10, no 5, p. 1685-1705Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Quick-clay landslides are common geohazards in Nordic countries and Canada. The presence of potential quick clays is confirmed using geotechnical investigations, but near-surface geophysical methods, such as seismic and resistivity surveys, can also help identify coarse-grained materials associated with the development of quick clays. We present the results of reflection seismic investigations on land and in part of the Göta River in Sweden, along which many quick-clay landslide scars exist. This is the first time that such a large-scale reflection seismic investigation has been carried out to study the subsurface structures associated with quick-clay landslides. The results also show a reasonable correlation with radio magnetotelluric and travel-time tomography models of the subsurface. Other ground geophysical data, such as high magnetic values, suggest a positive correlation with an increased thickness of the coarse-grained layer and shallower depths to the top of the bedrock and the top of the coarse-grained layer. The morphology of the river bottom and riverbanks, e.g. subaquatic landslide deposits, is shown by side-scan sonar and bathymetric data. Undulating bedrock, covered by subhorizontal sedimentary glacial and postglacial deposits, is clearly revealed. An extensive coarse-grained layer (P-wave velocity mostly between 1500 and 2500 ms-1 and resistivity from approximately 80 to 100 Ωm) exists within the sediments and is interpreted and modelled in a regional context. Several fracture zones are identified within the bedrock. Hydrological modelling of the coarse-grained layer confirms its potential for transporting fresh water infiltrated in fractures and nearby outcrops located in the central part of the study area. The modelled groundwater flow in this layer promotes the leaching of marine salts from the overlying clays by seasonal inflow–outflow cycles and/or diffusion, which contributes to the formation of potential quick clays.

  • 102.
    Salas-Romero, Silvia
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Geophysics.
    Malehmir, Alireza
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Geophysics.
    Snowball, Ian
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Combined land and river high-resolution reflection seismic imaging of an area prone to quick-clay landslides in Sweden2016Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Quick-clay landslides are common in northern countries and the delineation of these materials is important when planning urban areas. High-resolution reflection seismic data were acquired on land along four profiles in an area prone to quick-clay landslides in southwest Sweden in 2013. These data complement previous investigations that show the influence of the underlying coarse-grained layers in the formation and thickness of the quick clays. The intercalation of the different glacial and postglacial sediments, and the structural information of the subsurface provide clues to the possible causes of a landslide. Apart from the land data, river seismic data, using one and six channels, were obtained. All the seismic sections show a clear undulating bedrock reflection, and signs of bedrock faults at shallower depth that maybe important in the generation of quick clays and landslides. The coarse-grained layer reflection is delineated on the land data, and several filled channels can be distinguished along the river. The presence of the coarse-grained layer indicates the possible large extension of the quick clays in the study area, which needs to be confirmed using geotechnical investigations.

  • 103.
    Salas-Romero, Silvia
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Geophysics.
    Malehmir, Alireza
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Geophysics.
    Snowball, Ian
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Brodic, Bojan
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Geophysics.
    Geotechnical Site Characterization Using Multichannel Analysis of Surface Waveṣ–A Case Study of an Area Prone to Quick-Clay Landslides in Southwest SwedenManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
  • 104.
    Salas-Romero, Silvia
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Geophysics.
    Malehmir, Alireza
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Geophysics.
    Snowball, Ian
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Geophysics. Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Lougheed, Bryan
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Hellqvist, Magnus
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Palaeobiology.
    Identifying landslide preconditions in Swedish quick clays - insights from integration of surface geophysical, core sample- and downhole property measurements2016In: Landslides: Journal of the International Consortium on Landslides, ISSN 1612-510X, E-ISSN 1612-5118, Vol. 13, no 5, p. 905-923Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Quick-clay landslides are a serious geohazard in Canada, Norway and Sweden. Identification and mapping of quick clays are essential endeavours because the damage caused by an individual landslide can be large and costly, with potentially fatal consequences. We collected geophysical borehole and soil core data from an area prone to quick-clay landslides in southwestern Sweden. Methodologies included in situ and laboratory measurements, providing information about natural gamma radiation, sonic velocities, electrical conductivity, pH, physical grain size, elemental and mineral composition, magnetic properties, cation exchange capacity and fossil content. A stratigraphic thickness of almost 60 m enables us to study quick clays and their host environment in Sweden at unusually high resolution. Results identify the origin and location of reflections in nearby seismic lines and assign physico-chemical properties to the geological units present in the area. We show that coarse-grained layers are sandwiched between marine clays (some of which are quick clays). These layers function as a conduit for relatively fresh water that infiltrates the marine clays and chemically destabilizes them by leaching out their salts. The salinity distribution in the boreholes indicate that the groundwater movement is downwards, through the coarse-grained layer and towards the Gota river. The presence of these materials is important for the development of quick clays, although not a prerequisite. With the help of surface geophysical methods, the location of the coarse-grained layers can be known faster and more economically, which could be relevant for studying the potential for quick-clay landslide occurrence over large areas.

  • 105.
    Sallh, David
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Wachtmeister, Henrik
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Tang, Xu
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Offshore oil: Investigating production parameters of fields of varying size, location and water depth2015In: Fuel, ISSN 0016-2361, E-ISSN 1873-7153, Vol. 139, p. 430-440Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper derives empirical estimates of field depletion level, depletion rate, decline rate and characteristic time intervals in offshore oil production based on a global field-by-field database containing 603 offshore oil fields. Statistical distributions as well as arithmetic and weighted averages of production parameters are derived for different categories of fields specified by size, location and water depth. A significant tendency of small fields having higher depletion and decline rates is found. Similarly, OECD countries generally have higher rates compared to non-OECD countries. Trends related to water depth are not clearly distinguishable and require additional investigation of time related aspects. Resulting spreads in derived parameter estimates are found to be well described by positively skewed probability distributions. Also, in line with theory, a strong correlation between depletion and decline rate is found. According to the study, the net share of global offshore production from smaller and deeper fields is increasing. A continuation of these trends would likely have implications for future aggregate offshore production behaviour, most notably, increasing global aggregate decline rates.

  • 106.
    Shephard, G. E.
    et al.
    Univ Oslo, Dept Geosci, CEED, Oslo, Norway.
    Wiers, Steffen
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Bazhenova, Evgenia
    Univ New Hampshire, Ctr Coastal & Ocean Mapping, Durham, NH 03824 USA;St Petersburg State Univ, Inst Earth Sci, St Petersburg, Russia.
    Perez, Lara F.
    Geol Survey Denmark & Greenland GEUS, Dept Geophys, Copenhagen, Denmark.
    Mejia, Luz Maria
    ETH, Dept Earth Sci, Geol Inst, Zurich, Switzerland.
    Johansson, Carina
    Stockholm Univ, Dept Geol Sci, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Jakobsson, Martin
    Stockholm Univ, Dept Geol Sci, Stockholm, Sweden.
    O'Regan, Matt
    Stockholm Univ, Dept Geol Sci, Stockholm, Sweden.
    A North Pole thermal anomaly?: Evidence from new and existing heat flow measurements from the central Arctic Ocean2018In: Journal of Geodynamics, ISSN 0264-3707, E-ISSN 1879-1670, Vol. 118, p. 166-181Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Constraining the thermal evolution of the Arctic Ocean is hampered by notably sparse heat flow measurements and a complex tectonic history. Previous results from the Lomonosov Ridge in the vicinity of the North Pole, and the adjacent central Amundsen Basin reveal varied values, including those higher than expected considering plate cooling or simple uniform stretching models. Furthermore, in the vicinity of the North Pole an anomalously slow velocity perturbation exists in upper mantle seismic tomography models. However, whether these observations are related to a thermal anomaly in the mantle remains unknown. We present new heat flow results gathered from 17 sediment cores acquired during the "Arctic Ocean 2016" and "SWERUS-C3" expeditions on the Swedish icebreaker Oden. Three sites located on oceanic lithosphere in the Amundsen Basin between 7 degrees W-71E degrees reveal surface thermal conductivity of 1.07-1.26 W/mK and heat flow in the order of 71-95 mW/m(2), in line-with or slightly higher (1-21 mW/m(2)) than expected from oceanic heat flow curves. These results contrast with published results from further east in the Amundsen Basin, which indicated surface heat flow values up to 2 times higher than predicted from oceanic crustal cooling models. Heat flow of 49-61 mW/m(2) was recovered from the Amerasia Basin. Sites from the submerged continental fragments of the Lomonosov Ridge and Marvin Spur recovered heat flow in the order of 53-76 and 51-69 mW/m(2) respectively. When considering the additional potential surface heat flux from radiogenic heat production in the crust, these variable measurements are broadly in line with predictions from uniform extension models for continental crust. A seismically imaged upper mantle velocity anomaly in the central Arctic Ocean may arise from a combination of compositional and thermal variations but requires additional investigation. Disentangling surface heat flow contributions from crustal, lithospheric and mantle processes, including variable along-ridge rifting rates and timing, density and phase changes, conductive and advective dynamics, and regional tectonics, requires further analysis.

  • 107. Sitoe, Sandra Raul
    et al.
    Risberg, Jan
    Norstrom, Elin
    Snowball, Ian
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Holmgren, Karin
    Achimo, Mussa
    Mugabe, Joao
    Pa leo-environment and flooding of the Limpopo River-plain, Mozambique, between c. AD 1200-20002015In: Catena (Cremlingen. Print), ISSN 0341-8162, E-ISSN 1872-6887, Vol. 126, p. 105-116Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Multi-proxy analysis was performed on a radiocarbon-dated core, collected from a relic oxbow lake in the Limpopo River-plain, Mozambique, with the aim to reconstruct paleo-environment and past flooding of the lower river system over the past c. 800 years. An additional objective was to evaluate and investigate the potential use of different proxies as recorders of paleo-flooding events and paleo-environmental variability within the floodplain. The proxies applied in this study were: mineral magnetic properties, grain-size distribution, organic carbon content and diatom microfossil assemblages. We found that sediment grain-size and mineral magnetic properties of the minerogenic fraction were the most sensitive proxies in terms of detecting signals from high-intensity river-discharge events. In the 800 year long sequence, variations in sand content, magnetic susceptibility and saturation isothermal remnant magnetization suggest at least four major flooding events at the site during the reconstructed period; in the mid-1200, late-1300, mid-1500 AD and during the last century. The diatom proxy reflects the development of the site from an open oxbow lake to a mainly terrestrial area. The diatom assemblage indicates that open lake conditions prevailed at the site between c. AD 1200-1400, with periodic inundation by marine water, most likely due to late Holocene sea-level changes. From c. AD 1400 and onwards, diatoms were rarely deposited at the site, which indicates drier conditions. This was a result of soil formation and gradual in-filling of the lake, a process which possibly was accentuated by a regionally dry climate situation. Our study shows that oxbow lakes and the proxies used here have great potential for reconstructing flooding events, a knowledge that is crucial for potential prediction and mitigation of flooding events in Mozambique in the future. Although chronological uncertainties limit comparisons to other paleo-environmental records, it seems that the flooding events recorded at our site occurred both during regionally wet and dry periods. Our data infer however, that flooding was probably more clearly recorded during the lake-stages than during infilled stage, probably as the terrestrial environment was more exposed to erosion. 

  • 108. Smith, A.C.
    et al.
    Harrison, P.A.
    Pérez Sobac, M.
    Archauxd, F.
    Blicharska, Malgorzata
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development. Swedish Biodiversity Centre.
    Egoh, B.
    Erős, T.
    Fabrega Domenech, N.
    György, A.
    Haines-Young, R.
    Li, S.
    Lommelen, E.
    Meiresonne, L.
    Miguel Ayala, L.
    Mononen, L.
    Simpson, G.
    Stange, E.
    Turkelboomh, F.
    Uiterwijk, M.
    Veerkamp, C.J.
    Wyllie de Echeverria, V.
    How natural capital delivers ecosystem services: a typology derived from a systematic review2017In: Ecosystem Services, ISSN 2212-0416, E-ISSN 2212-0416, Vol. 26, p. 111-126Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    There is no unified evidence base to help decision-makers understand how the multiple components of natural capital interact to deliver ecosystem services. We systematically reviewed 780 papers, recording how natural capital attributes (29 biotic attributes and 11 abiotic factors) affect the delivery of 13 ecosystem services. We develop a simple typology based on the observation that five main attribute groups influence the capacity of natural capital to provide ecosystem services, related to: A) the physical amount of vegetation cover; B) presence of suitable habitat to support species or functional groups that provide a service; C) characteristics of particular species or functional groups; D) physical and biological diversity; and E) abiotic factors that interact with the biotic factors in groups A-D. ' Bundles' of services can be identified that are governed by different attribute groups. Management aimed at maximising only one service often has negative impacts on other services and on biological and physical diversity. Sustainable ecosystem management should aim to maintain healthy, diverse and resilient ecosystems that can deliver a wide range of ecosystem services in the long term. This can maximise the synergies and minimise the trade-offs between ecosystem services and is also compatible with the aim of conserving biodiversity.

  • 109.
    Smithers, Richard J.
    et al.
    Ricardo Energy & Environm, Harwell OX11 0QR, Oxon, England.
    Blicharska, Malgorzata
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development. Swedish Biodiversity Centre.
    Indirect impacts of climate change2016In: Science, Vol. 354, no 6318, p. 1386-1386Article in journal (Other academic)
  • 110. Smithers, Richard J.
    et al.
    Blicharska, Malgorzata
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development. Swedish Biodiversity Centre.
    Laurance, William F.
    Biodiversity Boundaries2016In: Science, Vol. 353, no 6304, p. 1108-Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 111.
    Smithers, Richard J.
    et al.
    Ricardo Energy & Environm, Harwell, Berks, England.
    Blicharska, Malgorzata
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Maria Gutiérrez, José
    Univ Costa Rica, San Jose, Costa Rica.
    Inequality: span the global divide2016In: Nature, Vol. 539, p. 31-31Article in journal (Other academic)
  • 112.
    Smithers, Richard J.
    et al.
    Ricardo Energy & Environm, Gemini Bldg,Fermi Ave, Didcot OX11 0QR, Oxon, England.
    Doick, Kieron J.
    Forest Res, Farnham GU10 4LH, Surrey, England.
    Burton, Aaron
    Ricardo Energy & Environm, Gemini Bldg,Fermi Ave, Didcot OX11 0QR, Oxon, England.
    Sibille, Raphael
    Ricardo Energy & Environm, Gemini Bldg,Fermi Ave, Didcot OX11 0QR, Oxon, England.
    Steinbach, David
    Ricardo Energy & Environm, Gemini Bldg,Fermi Ave, Didcot OX11 0QR, Oxon, England.
    Harris, Rachel
    Ricardo Energy & Environm, Gemini Bldg,Fermi Ave, Didcot OX11 0QR, Oxon, England.
    Groves, Lisa
    Ricardo Energy & Environm, Gemini Bldg,Fermi Ave, Didcot OX11 0QR, Oxon, England.
    Blicharska, Malgorzata
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Comparing the relative abilities of tree species to cool the urban environment2018In: Urban Ecosystems, ISSN 1083-8155, E-ISSN 1573-1642, Vol. 21, no 5, p. 851-862Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Increasing urbanisation poses numerous challenges to human quality of life. Cities are particularly vulnerable to the urban heat-island effect, which will be amplified by climate change. Increasing tree cover may be one of the most cost-effective ways of moderating urban temperatures. Trees cool their surroundings by casting shade, reflecting solar radiation, transpiring, and intercepting rainfall that subsequently evaporates. However, the potential of trees to reduce the urban heat-island effect is underutilised. The aim of this study was to synthesise understanding of the relative abilities of different tree species to provide urban cooling in temperate regions of the world and thereby develop a pragmatic approach for choosing those trees that have greatest potential in that regard. Based on a literature review and semi-structured interviews with leading experts, we developed a series of scenarios to illustrate the impacts of a tree's cooling mechanisms and tree species' attributes on components of the surface-energy balance equation. This enabled us to select parameters and propose simple equations that can be used to compare the relative abilities of tree species in relation to each of the cooling mechanisms. The parameters selected were for: transpiration - crown diameter, Leaf Area Index (LAI), canopy aspect ratio, and stomatal conductance or growth rate; reflection - albedo, crown diameter and LAI; shading - canopy aspect ratio, crown diameter, LAI and tree height. The approach is intended for use by urban planners and managers who wish to make informed decisions about which tree species to select for planting to counter the urban heat-island effect.

  • 113.
    Snowball, Ian
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Is the Hilina Pali ‘palaeomagnetic excursion’ becoming another example of the reinforcement syndrome? A comment inspired by Nawrocki et al. (2018)2018In: Boreas, ISSN 0300-9483, E-ISSN 1502-3885, Vol. 47, no 3, p. 967-968Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 114.
    Snowball, Ian
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Almqvist, Bjarne
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Geophysics.
    Lougheed, Bryan C.
    Wiers, Steffen
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Obrochta, Stephen
    Herrero-Bervera, Emilio
    Coring induced sediment fabrics at IODP Expedition 347 Sites M0061 and M0062 identified by anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS): criteria for accepting palaeomagnetic data2019In: Geophysical Journal International, ISSN 0956-540X, E-ISSN 1365-246X, Vol. 217, no 2, p. 1089-1107Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility data obtained from discrete subsamples recovered from two Integrated Ocean Drilling Program sites (Expedition 347 sites M0061 and M0062 in the Baltic Sea) by an Advanced Piston Corer are compared to results obtained on subsamples recovered by replicate 6-m-long Kullenberg piston cores. Characteristic natural remanence directions were obtained from the total of 1097 subsamples using principal component analyses. The three principal anisotropy axes of subsamples taken from Advanced Piston Core liners align to the subsample axes, with the maximum axis (K1) parallel to the split core surfaces, possibly caused by outwards relaxation of the core-liners after splitting. A second anomalous anisotropy fabric is characterized by steep values of the angular difference between the inclination of the minimum anisotropy axes (K3) and that expected for horizontal bedding (90°). This fabric is confined to the upper 1–2 m of the Kullenberg cores and specific sections of the advanced piston cores, and we attribute it to conical deformation caused by either excessive penetration speeds and downwards dragging of sediment along the edge of the liner or stretching caused by undersampling. By using our data in an example, we present a protocol to accept palaeomagnetic secular variation data that uses (i) a threshold 90-K3 value of 15°, combined with a modelled, locally applicable minimum inclination of 65° and (ii) an A95 cone of confidence based on Fisher statistics applied to virtual geomagnetic pole distributions.

  • 115.
    Snowball, Ian
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Apler, Anna
    Sveriges Geologiska Undersökning.
    Till botten med gamla synder2015In: Havsutsikt, ISSN 1104-0513, no 2, p. 18-20Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 116.
    Snowball, Ian
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Apler, Anna
    Sveriges Geologiska Undersökning.
    Till botten med gamla synder2015In: Havsutsikt, ISSN 1104-0513, Vol. 2, p. 18-20Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 117.
    Snowball, Ian
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Hounslow, Mark W.
    Nilsson, Andreas
    Geomagnetic and mineral magnetic characterization of the Anthropocene2014In: Stratigraphical Basis for the Anthropocene / [ed] Waters, CN; Zalasiewicz, JA; Williams, M; Ellis, M; Snelling, AM, Geological Society of London, 2014, Vol. 395, p. 119-141Chapter in book (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Geomagnetic and mineral magnetic data provide geological indices that are both independent of human impact (i.e. geomagnetic) and respond to human-induced environmental impact (i.e. mineral magnetic). We provide the first discussion of such magnetic events for help in defining the Anthropocene. Within the Holocene, a potential geomagnetic marker for the Anthropocene is the low dipole latitude at c. 2700 cal a BP, which is associated with distinct palaeosecular variation features in northerly mid-to high-latitude sites. Mineral magnetic records from lake and marine sediments identify major deforestation and soil delivery events from catchment systems in many parts of the world during the last 4000 years. In Europe, clusters of these events occur around both 2600 cal a BP and AD 1100, the former coinciding with a low in geomagnetic field dipole latitude and peak intensity. Mineral magnetic records in peats and lake sediments can reflect particulate pollution from fossil fuel burning. The expansion of major coal burning began c. AD 1800 in western Europe and eastern North America, but around AD 1900 this expanded due to more widely distributed coal use, and this event is the most clear mineral magnetic marker for the base of the Anthropocene.

  • 118.
    Sowunmi, Akinleye
    et al.
    Masdar Inst Sci & Technol, Inst Ctr Energy iENERGY, Abu Dhabi, U Arab Emirates..
    Mamone, Richard Michael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development. Masdar Inst Sci & Technol, Inst Ctr Energy iENERGY, Abu Dhabi, U Arab Emirates..
    Bastidas-Oyanedel, Juan-Rodrigo
    Masdar Inst Sci & Technol, Inst Ctr Energy iENERGY, Abu Dhabi, U Arab Emirates..
    Schmidt, Jens Ejbye
    Masdar Inst Sci & Technol, Inst Ctr Energy iENERGY, Abu Dhabi, U Arab Emirates..
    Biogas potential for electricity generation in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi2016In: BIOMASS CONVERSION AND BIOREFINERY, ISSN 2190-6815, Vol. 6, no 1, p. 39-47Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In 2009, the Government of Abu Dhabi made a commitment to generate 7 % of its total power output from renewable sources of energy by 2020. Biomethane is considered a viable option in accomplishing this goal. The objective of this work is to estimate the biogas to electricity potential from nine different biomasses found in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, i.e., sheep dung, goat dung, cattle dung, camel dung, print paper, newspaper, carton paper, food waste, and animal waste blood. These biomasses are considered waste, and they were selected for their organic content and relative abundance in the Emirate. The objective was accomplished through experimental work measuring the biomethane potential of the nine biomasses and the estimation of their availability in the Emirate. Food waste had the highest biomethane potential yield of 517.36 mL-CH4/g-VSadded at standard conditions of temperature and pressure (STP), while newspaper had the lowest yield of 76.6 mL-CH4/g-VSadded STP, despite its high cellulose content. Varying levels of inhibition were also observed across the biomasses. An estimation of the total biomethane potential showed that the nine biomasses are able to provide 6 % of domestic electricity use in Abu Dhabi Emirate and 1.9 % of renewable energy commitment, with food waste contributing the highest fraction (51 %) and paper waste having the highest specific electricity potential (0.94 kWh/t).

  • 119.
    Sun, Xiaoyang
    et al.
    China Univ Petr, Sch Business Adm, Beijing 102249, Peoples R China..
    Zhang, Baosheng
    China Univ Petr, Sch Business Adm, Beijing 102249, Peoples R China..
    Tang, Xu
    China Univ Petr, Sch Business Adm, Beijing 102249, Peoples R China..
    McLellan, Benjamin C.
    Kyoto Univ, Grad Sch Energy Sci, Sakyo Ku, Yoshida Honmachi, Kyoto 6068501, Japan..
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Sustainable Energy Transitions in China: Renewable Options and Impacts on the Electricity System2016In: Energies, ISSN 1996-1073, E-ISSN 1996-1073, Vol. 9, no 12, article id 980Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Chinese energy consumption has been dominated by coal for decades, but this needs to change to protect the environment and mitigate anthropogenic climate change. Renewable energy development is needed to fulfil the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) for the post-2020 period, as stated on the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris. This paper reviews the potential of renewable energy in China and how it could be utilised to meet the INDC goals. A business-as-usual case and eight alternative scenarios with 40% renewable electricity are explored using the EnergyPLAN model to visualise out to the year 2030. Five criteria (total cost, total capacity, excess electricity, CO2 emissions, and direct job creation) are used to assess the sustainability of the scenarios. The results indicate that renewables can meet the goal of a 20% share of non-fossil energy in primary energy and 40%-50% share of non-fossil energy in electricity power. The low nuclear-hydro power scenario is the most optimal scenario based on the used evaluation criteria. The Chinese government should implement new policies aimed at promoting integrated development of wind power and solar PV.

  • 120.
    Sällh, David
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Grandell, Leena
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Davidsson, Simon
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Evaluation and update of Norwegian and Danish oil production forecasts and implications for Swedish oil import2014In: Energy, ISSN 0360-5442, E-ISSN 1873-6785, Vol. 65, p. 333-345Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper presents an updated historic oil production analysis as well as an updated future oil production forecast for Norway and Denmark. Previous forecasts conducted by academic and official agencies using a variety of methodologies are contrasted and their accuracy examined. The bottom-up field-by-field methodology is found to be precise in the short-term, as it deviates by less than 1% from actual production. The impact of declining oil production in the North Sea on Sweden is explored as a case study. The historic and future trends regarding Swedish oil imports are presented and their vulnerability assessed using the Herfindahl-Hirschman index.

  • 121.
    Takeda, Kengo
    et al.
    Tokyo Institute of Technology.
    Purevsuren, Norovsambuu
    Tokyo Institute of Technology.
    Tokimatsu, Koji
    Tokyo Institute of Technology.
    Ikegami, Masako
    Tokyo Institute of Technology.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    The Import Structure of LNG from Russia to Japan by Cognitive Map and Text Analysis2019Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Japanese energy policy was shifted to natural gas use due to drastic situation domestic and international energy situation, such as the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident. Accordingly, this study analyzes the structure of natural gas development project and trading between Japan and Russia, as Russia is increasingly becoming an important major supplier of natural gas, which is reflected in the bilateral trade. This study will analyze the two LNG projects as a representative case of the multinational development project of natural gas from the perspective of energy security, economy, technology, and politics. The method of this analysis is “cognitive map” and “text analysis” to quantify the qualitative data collected from four major Japanese newspapers during the period of 1991-2017. One of the findings of this study is that, the Russian government has strengthened exporting LNG to East Asia as a state project since the first Putin administration especially after the US Shale revolution and the Ukrainian crisis, while the Japanese side is driven by major private corporations such as the construction of infrastructure which is little affected from international politics.

  • 122.
    Tang, Xu
    et al.
    China University of Petroleum - Beijing.
    Deng, Hongmei
    CNOOC Research Institute.
    Zhang, Baosheng
    China University of Petroleum - Beijing.
    Snowden, Simon
    University of Liverpool.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Nexus Between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in China: From the Perspective of Embodied Energy Imports and Exports2016In: Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, ISSN 1558-0938, Vol. 52, no 6, p. 1298-1304Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The nexus between energy consumption and economic growth in China is analyzed from the perspective of embodied energy imports and exports in this article. The research results suggest that China is a net embodied energy exporter and it is the inevitable result of China’s present economic development model. Exporting embodied energy contributes significantly to China’s economic development, and the trade-off costs of employment, trade surplus and government tax for China to reduce embodied energy exports are very high. China is bound by its own policies and unable to radically change its embodied energy exporting position within the foreseeable future.

  • 123.
    Tang, Xu
    et al.
    China University of Petroleum - Beijing.
    McLellan, Benjamin C.
    Kyoto University.
    Snowden, Simon
    University of Liverpool.
    Zhang, Baosheng
    China University of Petroleum - Beijing.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Dilemmas for China: Energy, Economy, and Environment2015In: Sustainability, ISSN 2071-1050, E-ISSN 2071-1050, Vol. 7, no 5, p. 5508-5520Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    China’s current national policies promote high levels of economic growth, transforming China into a “world factory”, but at a high cost in terms of energy and the environment. At the same time, this growth and transformation also forms the backbone of China’s economy, underpinning social stability. China faces a dilemma to reconcile its economy, energy system and environmental security. Each aspect of this triad is discussed in this study to illuminate the challenges faced by China, and China’s dilemma in energy, economy and environment is analyzed from the perspective of its participation in current global supply chains. While China must import a significant proportion of its energy and a large proportion of primary materials, a large share of these imports are returned to the global market as industrial exports. China is bound by its own course of action and unable to radically change its position for the foreseeable future as the road to economic development and employment stability is through policies built on exports and shifting development models, presenting a tough socio-economic trade-off. China’s growth challenges are discussed as an example of challenges more broadly faced in the developing world. China’s success or failure in achieving a sustainable developmental pattern will inevitably have a significant influence on the global environment.

  • 124.
    Tang, Xu
    et al.
    China Univ Petr, Sch Business Adm, Beijing 102249, Peoples R China..
    McLellan, Benjamin C.
    Kyoto Univ, Grad Sch Energy Sci, Sakyo Ku, Yoshida Honmachi, Kyoto 6068501, Japan..
    Zhang, Baosheng
    China Univ Petr, Sch Business Adm, Beijing 102249, Peoples R China..
    Snowden, Simon
    Univ Liverpool, Sch Management, Liverpool L69 7ZH, Merseyside, England..
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Trade-off analysis between embodied energy exports and employment creation in China2016In: Journal of Cleaner Production, ISSN 0959-6526, E-ISSN 1879-1786, Vol. 134, p. 310-319Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Moving towards sustainable consumption in China must factor in the drivers of production. China's domestic energy demand is affected not only by domestic demand, but also by foreign trade. The accounting of energy embodied in China's international trade has attracted much attention in recent years. In fact, embodied energy imports/exports are a part of the normal pattern of economic phenomena occurring through international trade, with exports of embodied energy contributing significantly to China's economic development. This research suggest that China's net embodied energy exports remained relatively stable before 2002, and then increased dramatically from 73 MTOE in 2002 to 502 MTOE by 2007 with an average annual growth rate of 47.2% over that period. The total employment creation reliant on these exports is 191.3 million people including direct employment of 44.1 million people and indirect employment of 147.2 million people in 2007, and the total employment creation increased quickly between 2002 and 2007, with an average annual growth rate of 9.1%. The share of employment created by exports in China's total employment increased from 16.5% in 1997 to 18.6% in 2002, and a more dramatic increase can be observed in 2007 of 28.1%. The exports-oriented sectors in China are energy-intensive from the perspective of embodied energy consumption, and the energy intensive exports are located in nearly the same sectors as the labor-intensive exports. China will find it difficult to sustain the trade-off in costs due to unemployment if it wishes to reduce embodied energy exports. China needs to exercise patience and long-term reform to change the current development model because of its large economy and population base.

  • 125.
    Tang, Xu
    et al.
    China Univ Petr, Sch Business Adm, Beijing 102249, Peoples R China..
    Snowden, Simon
    Univ Liverpool, Sch Management, Liverpool L69 7ZH, Merseyside, England..
    McLellan, Benjamin C.
    Kyoto Univ, Grad Sch Energy Sci, Sakyo Ku, Kyoto 6068501, Japan..
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Clean coal use in China: Challenges and policy implications2015In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 87, p. 517-523Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Energy consumption in China is currently dominated by coal, a major source of air pollution and carbon emissions. The utilization of clean coal technologies is a likely strategic choice for China at present, however, although there have been many successes in clean coal technologies worldwide, they are not widely used in China. This paper examines the challenges that China faces in the implementation of such clean coal technologies, where the analysis shows that those drivers that have a negative bearing on the utilization of clean coal in China are mainly non-technical factors such as the low legal liability of atmospheric pollution related to coal use, and the lack of laws and mandatory regulations for clean coal use in China. Policies for the development of clean coal technologies are in their early stages in China, and the lack of laws and detailed implementation requirements for clean coal require resolution in order to accelerate China's clean coal developments. Currently, environmental pollution has gained widespread attention from the wider Chinese populace and taking advantage of this opportunity provides a space in which to regain the initiative to raise people's awareness of clean coal products, and improve enterprises' enthusiasm for clean coal.

  • 126.
    Tang, Xu
    et al.
    China University of Petroleum - Beijing.
    Zhang, Baosheng
    China University of Petroleum - Beijing.
    Wei, Xinqiang
    China University of Petroleum - Beijing.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Employment Impacts of Petroleum Industry in China: An Input–Output Analysis2014In: International Journal of Global Energy Issues, ISSN 0954-7118, E-ISSN 1741-5128, Vol. 36, no 2-4, p. 116-129Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    China's employment issue is catching people's eyes at present and for a long time. Economic impacts of China's petroleum industry on employment are divided into direct, indirect and induced impacts and they are analysed in this study by using the input-output approach. The research results suggest that petroleum industry will supply 0.0957 jobs and 0.1501 jobs given 10,000 CNY final demand added in extraction of petroleum and processing of petroleum respectively; 1,887 CNY and 2,756 CNY of employment income will be affected given 10,000 CNY final demand added in extraction of petroleum and processing of petroleum respectively; extraction of petroleum has more direct impact on both employment number and employment income given one unit output added, and processing of petroleum has more indirect and induced impact on them. The petroleum industry's impact coefficients on both employment number and employment income have been decreasing since 1987. The proportion of direct impacts in total impacts continues to decrease, and the connection between petroleum industry and other sectors in China's national economy has become closer than before.

  • 127.
    Ternström, Johan
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Kylapotentialen i Drefviken för Vattenfall Heat AB2014Independent thesis Advanced level (professional degree), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    Vattenfall Heat AB is a district heat provider in Drefviken, but has yet to establish any cooling systems in this area. This thesis examines the potential client base within the area today and over the coming 20 years. The feasibility of the most common cooling technologies is evaluated and results show a total potential for an installed capacity of 30 MW providing 50 GWh of cooling per year. One of the examined areas shows good prospect for heat driven absorption chillers during the summer months when the heat load is limited.

  • 128.
    Thorbjörnsson, Anders
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Carbon Capture and Storage: Energy penalties and their impact on global coal consumption2014Independent thesis Advanced level (professional degree), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    Coal has been used as a fuel for electricity generation for centuries. Inexpensive electricity from coal has been a key component in building large industrial economies such as USA and China. But in recent decades the negative aspects of coal, mainly carbon dioxide emissions, has changed the view on the fuel. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a solution to be able to continue using coal as an energy source, while limiting carbon emissions. One of the drawbacks of CCS is the energy need associated with the capture process, the energy penalty. This study aims to gather and analyze the energy penalties for the most developed types of carbon capture technologies. It also aims to model how the implementation of CCS would affect the future coal consumption.

    The results show that the range of energy penalties for a given type of technology is wide. Despite obtaining the energy penalty with the same simulation software, the energy penalty for post- combustion with MEA can range between 10.7% and 39.1%. Comparing mean energy penalties show that pre-combustion capture is the most efficient capture method (18.4% ± 4.4%) followed by oxy- fuel (21.6% ± 5.5%) and post-combustion (24.7% ± 7.9%).

    Further on, CCS implementation scenarios were compared and used as a starting point for coal consumption calculations. Three pathways were constructed in order to investigate how different distributions of technologies would affect the amount of needed coal. The pathways describe a implementation with only the most efficient technology, the least efficient and a middle option.

    The results suggest that a large scale implementation of CCS on coal power plant will have a significant impact on the global coal consumption. Under certain assumptions it takes up to 35 % more coal to deliver the same amount electricity with CCS in comparison without CCS. It is also found that certain implementation scenarios will struggle to produce the amount of coal that is needed to power the plants.

    A sensitivity analysis was performed to examine the impact of assumptions made on for instance plant efficiencies. The analysis shows that optimistic assumptions on development in plant efficiency and deploying only the best technology, uses less coal than a development without CCS and with current plant efficiencies. 

  • 129.
    Thorbjörnsson, Anders
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Wachtmeister, Henrik
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Wang, Jianliang
    China University of Petroleum - Beijing.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Carbon capture and coal consumption: Implications of energy penalties and large scale deployment2015In: Energy Strategy Reviews, ISSN 2211-467X, E-ISSN 2211-4688, Vol. 7, no 4, p. 18-28Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Carbon capture and storage (CCS) can limit carbon emissions from coal power stations, but unfortunately decreases the net efficiency of such power plants. This study examines the link between capture technology and coal consumption for large scale CCS deployment. Estimates of the efficiency reduction (i.e., the energy penalty, EP) are assembled for three main technologies. Pre-combustion CCS is most efficient (EP = 18.9 ± 3.9%), oxy-fuel combustion CCS is intermediate (EP = 21.4 ± 5.3%), and post-combustion CCS is least efficient (EP = 24.8 ± 7.5%). Published CCS scenarios are compiled and their associated coal uses are calculated using the obtained EPs under different technology pathways. Coal consumption using CCS can be up to 31% higher compared to equal non-CCS cases, leading to several scenarios exceeding projected coal production in resource constrained studies.

  • 130.
    Tinch, Rob
    et al.
    Econ Environm Consultancy, 73-75 Mortimer St, London W1W 7SQ, England.
    Bugter, Rob
    Wageningen Environm Res, Team Biodivers & Policy, POB 47, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands.
    Blicharska, Malgorzata
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development. Swedish Univ Agr Sci, Dept Aquat Sci & Assessment, POB 7050, S-75007 Uppsala, Sweden.
    Harrison, Paula
    Lancaster Environm Ctr, CEH, Lib Ave, Lancaster LA1 4AP, England.
    Haslett, John
    Univ Salzburg, Div Anim Struct & Funct, Dept Cell Biol & Physiol, Hellbrunnerstr 34, A-5020 Salzburg, Austria.
    Jokinen, Pekka
    Univ Tampere, Fac Management, Tampere 33014, Finland.
    Mathieu, Laurence
    Econ Environm Consultancy, 73-75 Mortimer St, London W1W 7SQ, England.
    Primmer, Eeva
    Finnish Environm Inst, POB 140, Helsinki, Finland.
    Arguments for biodiversity conservation: factors influencing their observed effectiveness in European case studies2018In: Biodiversity and Conservation, ISSN 0960-3115, E-ISSN 1572-9710, Vol. 27, no 7, p. 1763-1788Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Making a strong case for biodiversity protection is central to meeting the biodiversity targets in international agreements such as the CBD and achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Effective arguments are needed to convince diverse actors that protection is worthwhile, and can play a crucial role in closing the implementation gap between biodiversity policy targets and outcomes. Drawing on a database of arguments from 11 European case studies, along with additional interview and case study material from all 13 case studies of the BESAFE project, we analysed relationships between potential and observed effectiveness of arguments. Our results show that strong logic, robustness, and timing of arguments are necessary but not sufficient conditions for arguments to be effective. We find that use of multiple and diverse arguments can enhance effectiveness by broadening the appeal to wider audiences, especially when arguments are repeated and refined through constructive dialogue. We discuss the role of framing, bundling and tailoring arguments to audiences in increasing effectiveness. Our results provide further support for the current shift towards recognition of value pluralism in biodiversity science and decision-making. We hope our results will help to demonstrate more convincingly the value of biodiversity to stakeholders in decision processes and thus build better cases for its conservation.

  • 131.
    Toft, Emma
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Bör Systembolaget visa vägen till hållbarhet?: En aktörsanalys av Systembolaget och deras möjligheter och skyldigheter2014Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [sv]

     I dagens samhälle är den rådande normen baserad på marknadsekonomi. Systemet bygger på att konsumenten vill ha så mycket för sina pengar som möjligt vilket leder till att produktion med hög effektivitet gynnas. I Sverige har vi antagit vissa riktlinjer och regler för att företagens effektivitet och vinstintresse inte skall gå ut över miljön eller de anställda. Regleringarnas syfte är att – till så stor utsträckning som möjlig – bidra till att produkter inte framställs under oetiska förhållanden för vare sig människor eller miljö. Dock är detta inte fallet i många andra länder var människor och miljö får lida. I denna studie har Systembolaget, i sin roll som statligt ägt bolag, undersökts utifrån deras möjligheter, friheter, skyldigheter och ansvar när det kommer till etiska och miljömässiga aspekter. Studien är en aktörsanalys där olika aktörer som berörs av Systembolagets arbete har intervjuats. Fokus under studien har varit vid Systembolagets arbete med produktmärkningar så som Fairtrade och KRAV. Aktörerna som deltagit är representanter från Naturskyddsföreningen, Fairtrade Sverige, Konkurrensverket, Systembolaget, en politiker och Latinamerikagrupperna.

    Analysen, som utförts med hjälp av aktörsanalys, marknadsmodeller och Mapping Different Approaches, har placerat aktörerna inom olika områden inom hållbarhetsdebatten och förändringsprocessen; aktörerna ser på förändring på olika sätt, inom systemet och utanför systemet.

    Konkurrensverkets fokus och uppdrag ligger endast vid de ekonomiska aspekterna och därav platsar de inte inom hållbarhetsdebatten. Vidare anser Systembolagets aktörer samt Fairtrades aktör att det är viktigt att finna lösningar på problemen men att dessa går att finna inom det nu rådande samhällssystemet, vilket är baserat på marknadsekonomin. Resten av aktörerna rör sig mot att balansen i systemet är rubbade och att orättvisorna är stora i samhället och att rättvisa måste skapas för att systemet skall fungera. Några av aktörerna anser även att systemetidag måste göras om och prioriteringarna måste omfördelas för att ett hållbart system skall kunna ta dess plats.

  • 132.
    Tokimatsu, Koji
    et al.
    Tokyo Inst Technol, Midori Ku, Nagatsuta, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan; Natl Inst Adv Ind Sci & Technol, Higashi, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    McLellan, Benjamin
    Kyoto Univ, Grad Sch Energy Sci, Sakyo Ku, Yoshida Honmachi, Kyoto, Japan.
    Wachtmeister, Henrik
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Murakamie, Shinsuke
    Univ Tokyo, Sch Engn, Bunkyo Ku, Hongo, Tokyo, Japan.
    Yasuoka, Rieko
    Syst Res Ctr Co Ltd, Minato Ku, Toranomon, Tokyo, Japan.
    Nishio, Masahiro
    Natl Inst Adv Ind Sci & Technol, Higashi, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan.
    Energy modeling approach to the global energy-mineral nexus: Exploring metal requirements and the well-below 2 degrees C target with 100 percent renewable energy2018In: Applied Energy, ISSN 0306-2619, E-ISSN 1872-9118, Vol. 225, p. 1158-1175Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Detailed analysis of pathways to future sustainable energy systems is important in order to identify and overcome potential constraints and negative impacts and to increase the utility and speed of this transition. A key aspect of a shift to renewable energy technologies is their relatively higher metal intensities. In this study a bottom-up cost-minimizing energy model is used to calculate aggregate metal requirements in different energy technology including hydrogen and climate policy scenarios and under a range of assumptions reflecting uncertainty in future metal intensities, recycling rate and life time of energy technologies. Metal requirements are then compared to current production rates and resource estimates to identify potentially "critical" metals. Three technology pathways are investigated: 100 percent renewables, coal & nuclear and gas & renewables, each under the two different climate policies: net zero emissions satisfying the well-below 2 degrees C target and business as usual without carbon constraints, resulting together in six scenarios. The results suggest that the three different technology pathways lead to an almost identical degree of warming without any climate policy, while emissions peaks within a few decades with a 2 degrees C policy. The amount of metals required varies significantly in the different scenarios and under the various uncertainty assumptions. However, some can be deemed "critical" in all outcomes, including Vanadium. The originality of this study lies in the specific findings, and in the employment of an energy model for the energy-mineral nexus study, to provide better understanding for decision making and policy development.

  • 133.
    Tokimatsu, Koji
    et al.
    Tokyo Inst Technol, Midori Ku, 4259 Nagatsuta, Yokohama, Kanagawa 2268503, Japan;Natl Inst Adv Ind Sci & Technol, 1-1-1 Higashi, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058567, Japan.
    McLellan, Benjamin
    Kyoto Univ, Grad Sch Energy Sci, Sakyo Ku, Yoshida Honmachi, Kyoto 6068501, Japan.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Murakami, Shinsuke
    Univ Tokyo, Sch Engn, Bunkyo Ku, 7-3-1 Hongo, Tokyo 1138656, Japan.
    Yasuoka, Rieko
    Syst Res Ctr Co Ltd, Minato Ku, KY Bldg,3-16-7, Tokyo 1050001, Japan.
    Nishio, Masahiro
    Natl Inst Adv Ind Sci & Technol, 1-1-1 Higashi, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058567, Japan.
    Energy modeling approach to the global energy-mineral nexus: A case of fuel cell vehicle2017In: PROCEEDINGS OF THE 9TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON APPLIED ENERGY / [ed] Yan, J Wu, J Li, H, ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV , 2017, p. 2361-2364Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Hydrogen draw great attentions to become center of the Japanese energy policy after succeeding rapid expansion of renewable energy and dash for gas, after the Fukushima daiichi nuclear accident. This study estimates the metal requirement for hydrogen technologies by using a cost-minimizing energy model on the global energy-mineral nexus. The models are consisted from production of resources, land use and land use changes, inter-regional transportation, energy conversion (power, liquid fuels, gas), production of materials, final demand, wood products, disposal of used products, and materials recycling. Two energy and climate scenarios were developed to represent primarily economic efficiency and environmental performance, respectively, under climate policies with 2DC target, and without any constraints. Based on the future hydrogen consumption, metal requirements and cumulative production were estimated, to compare with production levels in 2015 and reserves. Candidates of hydrogen technologies are, fuel cells (for vehicle, stationary), storage tanks, and production, utilizing sectors in transport, power, and heat. (C) 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 9th International Conference on Applied Energy.

  • 134.
    Tokimatsu, Koji
    et al.
    Tokyo Inst Technol, Midori Ku, 4259 Nagatsuta, Yokohama, Kanagawa 2268503, Japan.;Natl Inst Adv Ind Sci & Technol, 1-2-1 Namiki, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058564, Japan..
    Murakami, Shinsuke
    Univ Tokyo, Sch Engn, Bunkyo Ku, 7-3-1 Hongo, Tokyo 1138656, Japan..
    McLellan, Benjamin
    Kyoto Univ, Grad Sch Energy Sci, Sakyo Ku, Kyoto 6068501, Japan..
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Yasuoka, Rieko
    Syst Res Ctr Co Ltd, Minato Ku, KY Bldg,3-16-7 Toranomon, Tokyo 1050001, Japan..
    Nishio, Masahiro
    Natl Inst Adv Ind Sci & Technol, 1-2-1 Namiki, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058564, Japan..
    Global energy-mineral nexus by systems analysis approaches2017In: Energy Procedia, ISSN 1876-6102, E-ISSN 1876-6102, Vol. 105, p. 3345-3348Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    After the Great East Japan Earthquake, Japanese energy policy strategies have been directed towards seeking more diversified energy options, especially fuel switching to gas, rapid introduction of renewable energy, and pushing towards a hydrogen economy. While a secure supply of energy, or energy security, is typically argued within the context of energy resources, little consideration for energy policy is given to mineral resources used in various energy technologies. Many studies have addressed the specific mineral elements in technologies by borrowing energy scenarios from authorities (e.g., The International Energy Agency (IEA) energy technology perspectives (ETP)). Some have applied empirical estimation models such as logistic functions for their future demand projections. In this study, we used our own resource balance models incorporating resources of energy, non-fuel minerals, biomass and food, to illustrate future consumption paths for non-fuel minerals (including scarce metals) as well as our own energy and climate policy scenarios. Our approach is complementary, not a substitute, offering more insights to existing studies on energy-mineral nexus approaches.

  • 135.
    Tokimatsu, Koji
    et al.
    Tokyo Inst Technol, Midori Ku, 4259 Nagatsuta, Yokohama, Kanagawa 2268503, Japan.;Natl Inst Adv Ind Sci & Technol, 1-2-1 Namiki, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058564, Japan..
    Wachtmeister, Henrik
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    McLellan, Benjamin
    Kyoto Univ, Grad Sch Energy Sci, Sakyo Ku, Yoshida Honmachi, Kyoto 6068501, Japan..
    Davidsson, Simon
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Murakami, Shinsuke
    Univ Tokyo, Sch Engn, Bunkyo Ku, 7-3-1 Hongo, Tokyo 1138656, Japan..
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Yasuoka, Rieko
    Syst Res Ctr Co Ltd, Minato Ku, KY Bldg,3-16-7 Toranomon, Tokyo 1050001, Japan..
    Nishio, Masahiro
    Natl Inst Adv Ind Sci & Technol, 1-2-1 Namiki, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058564, Japan..
    Energy modeling approach to the global energy-mineral nexus: A first look at metal requirements and the 2 degrees C target2017In: Applied Energy, ISSN 0306-2619, E-ISSN 1872-9118, Vol. 207, p. 494-509Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Stringent GHG emission cuts are required for meeting the so-called Paris Agreement. Due to higher metal intensities of renewable energy, such a transition must also include required amounts of metal. This study estimates the metal requirement for various power generation technology mix scenarios by using a cost-minimizing energy model on the global energy-mineral nexus. Two energy and climate scenarios were developed to represent primarily economic efficiency and environmental performance, respectively, under climate policies with net zero emissions satisfying the 2 degrees C target, and without any constraints (i.e. Business As Usual). Based on the future additions of various power generation technologies, metal requirements and cumulative production were estimated in zero-order and conservative scenarios, to compare with production levels in 2015 and reserves. The results suggest that there may be cause for concern about metal requirement and/or availability in PV, nuclear, and (Plug-in Hybrid) Electric Vehicles in 2100. For PV in the Gas & Ren scenario, most of the metal usage exceeded their production levels and the reserves. It is concluded that mineral availability and production rates should be given greater attention for planning and modeling of sustainable energy systems.

  • 136. Tonkov, Spassimir
    et al.
    Lazarova, Maria
    Bozilova, Elissaveta
    Ivanov, Dimiter
    Snowball, Ian
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    A 30,000-year pollen record from Mire Kupena, Western Rhodopes Mountains (south Bulgaria)2014In: Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology, ISSN 0034-6667, E-ISSN 1879-0615, Vol. 209, p. 41-51Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A palynological study was performed on a 2 m thick sediment sequence recovered from Mire Kupena (1356 m), a former lake in the Western Rhodopes Mountains (south Bulgaria) and supported by radiocarbon dating. The record extends back to ca. 30,000 cal. yrs. BP (Middle Pleniglacial) when the study area was occupied by wooded steppe composed of Pinus sp., Pinus peuce, some Betula,Juniperus, and cold-tolerant herb vegetation dominated by Artemisia and Chenopodiaceae. In addition, the almost continuous presence of deciduous Quercus, Tilia, Corylus, Abies, Picea, Fagus, Alnus, and Carpinus betulus pollen suggests interstadial conditions and this area could be recognized as a montane refugial place. A reconstruction of the interval between ca. 24,000 and 15,000 cal. yrs. BP was not possible due to an extremely low sediment accumulation rates or, more likely, a hiatus. The lateglacial landscape was dominated by mountain-herb steppe vegetation with isolated stands of Pinus, Betula and shrubland of Juniperus. The afforestation in the Early Holocene started with broad-leaved forests composed of Quercus with C betulus, Carpinus orientalis/Ostrya, Ulmus, Tilia and Corylus and minor amounts of Pinus, Betula and Abies. In the Late Holocene (< ca. 4700 cal. yrs. BP) Fagus began to gain importance chiefly at the expense of the mixed oak forests, while after ca. 2000 cal. yrs. BP forests of Pinus sylyestris with some P. peuce quickly expanded around the mire. A comparison with other long palynological records from the mountains and lowlands of Bulgaria and in northern Greece reveals not only common trends in the vegetation development that are a reflection of the climate changes, but also site-specific features related to the location and topography of each site.

  • 137. Troell, Max
    et al.
    Kautsky, Nils
    Beveridge, Malcolm
    Henriksson, Patrik
    Primavera, Jurgenne
    Rönnbäck, Patrik
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Folke, Carl
    Jonell, Malin
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Aquaculture2017In: Reference Module in Life Sciences, ISSN 978-0-12-809633-8Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Biophysical impacts of aquaculture, with consequences for biodiversity, vary with species and culture systems and include issues such as: nutrient enrichment/removal, chemicals, land use, species introductions, genetic flow to wild populations, disturbance of balance or introduction of pathogen/parasites, consumption of capture fishery resources, energy, and greenhouse gas emissions. Guiding principles, labeling schemes and various tools are needed to analyze performance and conformance. Ecological footprints and life-cycle analysis aim to capture biophysical performance, including up- and downstream effects of policy decisions. Aquaculture provides a range of services but also makes demands and impacts on ecosystem functions, services, and thus biodiversity.

  • 138. Unsworth, Richard K. F.
    et al.
    McKenzie, Len J.
    Collier, Catherine J.
    Cullen-Unsworth, Leanne C.
    Duarte, Carlos M.
    Eklöf, Johan S.
    Jarvis, Jessie C.
    Jones, Benjamin L.
    Nordlund, Lina M.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Global challenges for seagrass conservation2019In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 48, no 8, p. 801-815Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Seagrasses, flowering marine plants that form underwater meadows, play a significant global role in supporting food security, mitigating climate change and supporting biodiversity. Although progress is being made to conserve seagrass meadows in select areas, most meadows remain under significant pressure resulting in a decline in meadow condition and loss of function. Effective management strategies need to be implemented to reverse seagrass loss and enhance their fundamental role in coastal ocean habitats. Here we propose that seagrass meadows globally face a series of significant common challenges that must be addressed from a multifaceted and interdisciplinary perspective in order to achieve global conservation of seagrass meadows. The six main global challenges to seagrass conservation are (1) a lack of awareness of what seagrasses are and a limited societal recognition of the importance of seagrasses in coastal systems; (2) the status of many seagrass meadows are unknown, and up-to-date information on status and condition is essential; (3) understanding threatening activities at local scales is required to target management actions accordingly; (4) expanding our understanding of interactions between the socio-economic and ecological elements of seagrass systems is essential to balance the needs of people and the planet; (5) seagrass research should be expanded to generate scientific inquiries that support conservation actions; (6) increased understanding of the linkages between seagrass and climate change is required to adapt conservation accordingly. We also explicitly outline a series of proposed policy actions that will enable the scientific and conservation community to rise to these challenges. We urge the seagrass conservation community to engage stakeholders from local resource users to international policy-makers to address the challenges outlined here, in order to secure the future of the world’s seagrass ecosystems and maintain the vital services which they supply.

  • 139.
    van Helmond, Niels A. G. M.
    et al.
    Univ Utrecht, Fac Geosci, Dept Earth Sci, Geochem, Princetonpl 9, NL-3584 CC Utrecht, Netherlands..
    Krupinski, Nadine B. Quintana
    Lund Univ, Dept Geol, SE-22362 Lund, Sweden..
    Lougheed, Bryan C.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Obrochta, Stephen P.
    Akita Univ, Grad Sch Int Resource Sci, 1-1 Tegata Gakuin Cho, Akita 0108502, Japan..
    Andren, Thomas
    Sodertorn Univ, Sch Nat Sci Technol & Environm Studies, SE-14189 Huddinge, Sweden..
    Slomp, Caroline P.
    Univ Utrecht, Fac Geosci, Dept Earth Sci, Geochem, Princetonpl 9, NL-3584 CC Utrecht, Netherlands..
    Seasonal hypoxia was a natural feature of the coastal zone in the Little Belt, Denmark, during the past 8 ka2017In: Marine Geology, ISSN 0025-3227, E-ISSN 1872-6151, Vol. 387, p. 45-57Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The extent of the hypoxic area in the Baltic Sea has rapidly expanded over the past century. Two previous phases of widespread hypoxia, coinciding with the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM; 8-4 ka before present; BP) and the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; 2-0.8 ka BP), have been identified. Relatively little is known about bottom water redox conditions in the coastal zone of the Baltic Sea during the Holocene, however. Here we studied the geochemical composition of a sediment sequence from a currently seasonally hypoxic site in the Danish coastal zone, the Little Belt, retrieved during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 347 (Site M0059). The base of the studied sediment sequence consists of clays low in organic carbon (C-org), molybdenum (Mo) and iron sulfides (Fe-sulfides), and rich in iron oxides (Fe-oxides), indicative of a well-oxygenated, oligotrophic (glacial) meltwater lake. An erosional unconformity separates the glacial lake sediments from sediments that are rich in C-org. The absence of Mo, in combination with high C-org/S values, indicates that these sediments were deposited in a highly productive, well-oxygenated freshwater lake. The transition to modern brackish/marine conditions was very rapid, and subsequent continuous sequestration of Mo in the sediment and high ratios of reactive iron (Fe-HR) over total Fe (Fe-TOT) suggest (seasonal) hypoxia occurred over the last similar to 8 ka. Maxima in sediment Core, Mo and Fe-HR/Fe-TOT ratios during the HTM and MCA suggest that the hypoxia intensified. Our results demonstrate that the Little Belt is naturally susceptible to the development of seasonal hypoxia. While periods of climatic warming led to increased deoxygenation of bottom waters, high nutrient availability in combination with density stratification were likely the main drivers of hypoxia in this part of the coastal zone of the Baltic Sea during the Holocene.

  • 140.
    van Keulen, Mike
    et al.
    Centre for Sustainable Aquatic Ecosystems, Harry Butler Institute, Murdoch University, Murdoch, WA 6150, Australia.
    Nordlund, Lina Mtwana
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Cullen-Unsworth, Leanne C.
    Sustainable Places Research Institute, Cardiff University, 33 Park Place, Cardiff, CF10 3BA, UK.
    Towards recognition of seagrasses, and their sustainable management2018In: Marine Pollution Bulletin, ISSN 0025-326X, E-ISSN 1879-3363, Vol. 134, p. 1-4Article in journal (Other academic)
  • 141.
    Wachtmeister, Henrik
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    World oil supply and unconventional resources: Bottom-up perspectives on tight oil production2018Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Oil is the world’s largest primary energy source. It dominates the transportation sector which underpins the world economy. Yet, oil is a nonrenewable resource, destined not to last forever. In the mid-2000s global conventional oil production stagnated, leading to rising oil prices and fears of permanent oil scarcity. These fears, together with the high prices, receded with the unforeseen emergence of a new supply source: tight oil.

    This licentiate thesis investigates unconventional tight oil production and its impacts on world oil supply in terms of resource availability and oil market dynamics, and in turn briefly discusses some possible wider economic, political and environmental implications of these impacts. The thesis is based on three papers. The first investigates the usefulness of bottom-up modelling by a retrospective study of past oil projections. The second looks at how unconventional tight oil production can be modelled on the well level using decline curve analysis. The third derives typical production parameters for conventional offshore oil fields, a growing segment of conventional production and a useful comparison to tight oil.

    The results show that tight oil production has increased resource availability significantly, as well as introduced a fast responding marginal supply source operating on market principles rather than political ones. The emergence of tight oil production has altered OPEC’s strategic options and led to a period of lower and less volatile oil prices. However, this condition of world oil supply can only last as long as the unconventional resource base allows, and, at the same time, total fossil fuel consumption will have to fall to limit climate change. It is concluded that this breathing space with lower oil prices could be used as an opportunity to develop and implement policy for an efficient managed decline of global oil use in order to achieve the dual goals of increased human economic welfare and limited climate change, and in the process preempt any future oil supply shortage. Unconventional tight oil production can both help and hinder in this endeavor. Accurate models and analyses of oil production dynamics and impacts are therefore crucial when maneuvering towards this preferred future.

    List of papers
    1. Oil projections in retrospect: Revisions, accuracy and current uncertainty
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>Oil projections in retrospect: Revisions, accuracy and current uncertainty
    2018 (English)In: Applied Energy, ISSN 0306-2619, E-ISSN 1872-9118, Vol. 220, p. 138-153Article in journal (Refereed) Published
    Abstract [en]

    Scenarios and projections are important for decision and policy making. Accuracy of past projections can be useful for both scenario users and developers, for insight on current projection uncertainty, and for guiding improvement efforts. This paper compiles projections of oil production, oil prices and upstream investments from the years 2000 to 2016 from the annual World Energy Outlook by the International Energy Agency, and investigates revisions and accuracy of past projections and implied uncertainty of current ones. Revisions of world oil production, price and investments have been motivated by a combination of demand and supply factors. Downward revisions are mainly allocated to OPEC, while recent upward revisions are due to unconventional oil, in particular US tight oil. Non-OPEC conventional projections have been stable. Price and investments have been revised mostly upwards. Projection accuracy follows the size and directions of these revisions, with high accuracy for Non-OPEC (mean absolute percentage error of 4.8% on a 5 year horizon) and low for OPEC (8.9%) and unconventional (37%). Counteracting error directions contribute to accurate total World oil supply projections (4%) while price projections have low accuracy (37%). Scenario users should be aware of implied uncertainty of current oil projections. In planning and decision making, uncertainty ranges such as those presented here can be used as benchmarks. Scenario developers should focus improvements efforts on three areas in particular: tight oil, OPEC and new technology.

    Keywords
    Oil projections, Scenarios, Revisions, Accuracy, Uncertainty, IEA
    National Category
    Energy Systems
    Research subject
    Natural Resources and Sustainable Development
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-347573 (URN)10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.03.013 (DOI)000432884500013 ()
    Funder
    Swedish Research Council, 2014-5246StandUp
    Available from: 2018-04-04 Created: 2018-04-04 Last updated: 2018-08-20Bibliographically approved
    2. Production Decline Curves of Tight Oil Wells in Eagle Ford Shale
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>Production Decline Curves of Tight Oil Wells in Eagle Ford Shale
    2017 (English)In: Natural Resources Research, ISSN 1520-7439, E-ISSN 1573-8981, Vol. 26, no 3, p. 365-377Article in journal (Refereed) Published
    Abstract [en]

    This study derives typical production curves of tight oil wells based on monthly production data from multiple horizontal Eagle Ford shale oil wells. Well properties initial production (IP) rate and production decline rate were documented, and estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) was calculated using two empirical production decline curve models, the hyperbolic and the stretched exponential function. Individual well productivity, which can be described by IP level, production decline curvature and well lifetime, varies significantly. The average monthly IP was found to be around 500 bbl/day, which yields an EUR in the range of 150-290 kbbl depending on used curve, assumed well lifetime or production cutoff level. More detailed analyses on EUR can be made once longer time series are available. For more realistic modeling of multiple wells a probabilistic approach might be favorable to account for variety in well productivity. For less detailed modeling, for example conceptual regional bottom-up production modeling, the hyperbolic function with deterministic parameters might be preferred because of ease of use, for example with the average parameter values IP = 500 bbl/day, D = 0.3 and b = 1 resulting in an EUR of 250 kbbl with a 30-year well lifetime, however, with the recognition that this extrapolation is uncertain.

    Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
    SPRINGER, 2017
    Keywords
    Tight oil, Shale oil, Well production, Decline rate, EUR, Eagle Ford
    National Category
    Other Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-323016 (URN)10.1007/s11053-016-9323-2 (DOI)000400644300007 ()
    Funder
    Swedish Research Council, 2014-5246
    Available from: 2017-06-14 Created: 2017-06-14 Last updated: 2018-05-16Bibliographically approved
    3. Offshore oil: Investigating production parameters of fields of varying size, location and water depth
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>Offshore oil: Investigating production parameters of fields of varying size, location and water depth
    2015 (English)In: Fuel, ISSN 0016-2361, E-ISSN 1873-7153, Vol. 139, p. 430-440Article in journal (Refereed) Published
    Abstract [en]

    This paper derives empirical estimates of field depletion level, depletion rate, decline rate and characteristic time intervals in offshore oil production based on a global field-by-field database containing 603 offshore oil fields. Statistical distributions as well as arithmetic and weighted averages of production parameters are derived for different categories of fields specified by size, location and water depth. A significant tendency of small fields having higher depletion and decline rates is found. Similarly, OECD countries generally have higher rates compared to non-OECD countries. Trends related to water depth are not clearly distinguishable and require additional investigation of time related aspects. Resulting spreads in derived parameter estimates are found to be well described by positively skewed probability distributions. Also, in line with theory, a strong correlation between depletion and decline rate is found. According to the study, the net share of global offshore production from smaller and deeper fields is increasing. A continuation of these trends would likely have implications for future aggregate offshore production behaviour, most notably, increasing global aggregate decline rates.

    Keywords
    Offshore, Oil production, Depletion level, Depletion rate, Decline rate
    National Category
    Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
    Research subject
    Natural Resources and Sustainable Development
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-240057 (URN)10.1016/j.fuel.2014.09.012 (DOI)000345434700053 ()