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  • 1.
    Berglund, Mårten
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Green growth? A consumption perspective on Swedish environmental impact trends using input–output analysis2011Independent thesis Advanced level (professional degree), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    Consumption-based environmental impact trends for the Swedish economy have been generated and analysed in order to determine their levels compared to official production-based data, and to determine whether or not the Swedish economy has decoupled growth in domestic final demand from worldwide environmental impact. Three energy resources (oil, coal and gas use, as well as their aggregate fossil fuel use) and seven emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O, SO2, NOx, CO and NMVOC, as well as the aggregate CO2 equivalents) were studied.

    An augmented single-regional input–output model has been deployed, with world average energy and emission intensities used for products produced abroad. A new method for updating input–output tables for years missing official input–output tables, was also developed. For each of the resources and the emissions, two time series were generated based on two different revisions of Swedish national accounts data, one for the period 1993–2003, the other for the period 2000–2005. The analysis uses a recently revised time series of environmental data from the Swedish environmental accounts, as well as recently published global environmental data from the IEA and from the EDGAR emissions database (all data from 2010 or later). An index decomposition analysis was also performed to detect the various components of the time series.

    For fossil fuels consumption-based data don't differ much from production-based data in total. For the greenhouse gases there is a clear increase (CO2eq emissions increase approximately 20 % from 1993–2005, mainly driven by an increase in CH4 emissions), resulting from increased emissions abroad due to the increased demand for imported products. This suggests Sweden has not decoupled economic growth from increasing greenhouse gas emissions – contrary to what the slightly decreasing official production-based UNFCCC data say. For the precursor gases (SO2, NOx, CO and NMVOC), emissions are generally decreasing, with the exception of SO2 and NOx which increase in the second time series. For all emissions studied, consumption-based data lie at much higher levels than the official production-based UNFCCC data.

    However, further research is needed regarding the resolution of the data of the energy use and the emissions generated abroad by the Swedish domestic final demand. Also, extension of the time series and of the environmental parameters to such things as material use is needed to find out with more certainty to what extent Swedish growth has been sustainable or not.

  • 2.
    Davidsson, Simon
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Life Cycle Exergy Analysis of Wind Energy Systems: Assessing and improving life cycle analysis methodology2011Independent thesis Advanced level (professional degree), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    Wind power capacity is currently growing fast around the world. At the same time different forms of life cycle analysis are becoming common for measuring the environmental impact of wind energy systems. This thesis identifies several problems with current methods for assessing the environmental impact of wind energy and suggests improvements that will make these assessments more robust.

    The use of the exergy concept combined with life cycle analysis has been proposed by several researchers over the years. One method that has been described theoretically is life cycle exergy analysis (LCEA). In this thesis, the method of LCEA is evaluated and further developed from earlier theoretical definitions. Both benefits and drawbacks with using exergy based life cycle analysis are found. For some applications the use of exergy can solve many of the issues with current life cycle analysis methods, while other problems still remain.

    The method of life cycle exergy analysis is used to evaluate the sustainability of an existing wind turbine. The wind turbine assessed appears to be sustainable in the way that it gives back many times more exergy than it uses during the life cycle.

  • 3.
    Fantazzini, Dean
    et al.
    Moscow School of Economics.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Angelantoni, André
    Post Peak Living.
    Global oil risks in the early 21st Century2011In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 39, no 12, p. 7865-7873Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Deepwater Horizon incident demonstrated that most of the oil left is deep offshore or in other difficult to reach locations. Moreover, obtaining the oil remaining in currently producing reservoirs requires additional equipment and technology that comes at a higher price in both capital and energy. In this regard, the physical limitations on producing ever-increasing quantities of oil are highlighted as well as the possibility of the peak of production occurring this decade. The economics of oil supply and demand are also briefly discussed showing why the available supply is basically fixed in the short to medium term. Also, an alarm bell for economic recessions is shown to be when energy takes a disproportionate amount of total consumer expenditures. In this context, risk mitigation practices in government and business are called for. As for the former, early education of the citizenry of the risk of economic contraction is a prudent policy to minimize potential future social discord. As for the latter, all business operations should be examined with the aim of building in resilience and preparing for a scenario in which capital and energy are much more expensive than in the business-as-usual one.

  • 4.
    Grandell, Leena
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Hall, Charles
    State University of New York.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Energy Return on Investment for Norwegian Oil and Gas from 1991 to 20082011In: Sustainability, ISSN 2071-1050, E-ISSN 2071-1050, Vol. 3, no 11, p. 2050-2070Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Norwegian oil and gas fields are relatively new and of high quality, which has led, during recent decades, to very high profitability both financially and in terms of energy production. One useful measure for profitability is Energy Return on Investment, EROI. Our analysis shows that EROI for Norwegian petroleum production ranged from 44:1 in the early 1990s to a maximum of 59:1 in 1996, to about 40:1 in the latter half of the last decade. To compare globally, only very few, if any, resources show such favorable EROI values as those found in the Norwegian oil and gas sector. However, the declining trend in recent years is most likely due to ageing of the fields whereas varying drilling intensity might have a smaller impact on the net energy gain of the fields. We expect the EROI of Norwegian oil and gas production to deteriorate further as the fields become older. More energy-intensive production techniques will gain in importance.

  • 5.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Coal and Oil: The Dark Monarchs of Global Energy: Understanding Supply and Extraction Patterns and their Importance for Future Production2010Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The formation of modern society has been dominated by coal and oil, and together these two fossil fuels account for nearly two thirds of all primary energy used by mankind.  This makes future production a key question for future social development and this thesis attempts to answer whether it is possible to rely on an assumption of ever increasing production of coal and oil. Both coal and oil are finite resources, created over long time scales by geological processes. It is thus impossible to extract more fossil fuels than geologically available. In other words, there are limits to growth imposed by nature.

    The concept of depletion and exhaustion of recoverable resources is a fundamental question for the future extraction of coal and oil. Historical experience shows that peaking is a well established phenomenon in production of various natural resources. Coal and oil are no exceptions, and historical data shows that easily exploitable resources are exhausted while more challenging deposits are left for the future.

    For oil, depletion can also be tied directly to the physical laws governing fluid flows in reservoirs. Understanding and predicting behaviour of individual fields, in particularly giant fields, are essential for understanding future production. Based on comprehensive databases with reserve and production data for hundreds of oilfields, typical patterns were found. Alternatively, depletion can manifest itself indirectly through various mechanisms. This has been studied for coal.

    Over 60% of the global crude oil production is derived from only around 330 giant oilfields, where many of them are becoming increasingly mature. The annual decline in existing oil production has been determined to be around 6% and it is unrealistic that this will be offset by new field developments, additional discoveries or unconventional oil. This implies that the peak of the oil age is here.

    For coal a similar picture emerges, where 90% of the global coal production originates from only 6 countries. Some of them, such as the USA show signs of increasing maturity and exhaustion of the recoverable amounts. However, there is a greater uncertainty about the recoverable reserves and coal production may yield a global maximum somewhere between 2030 and 2060.

    This analysis shows that the global production peaks of both oil and coal can be expected comparatively soon. This has significant consequences for the global energy supply and society, economy and environment. The results of this thesis indicate that these challenges should not be taken lightly.

    List of papers
    1. A decline rate study of Norwegian oil production
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>A decline rate study of Norwegian oil production
    2008 (English)In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 36, no 11, p. 4262-4271Article in journal (Refereed) Published
    Abstract [en]

    Norway has been a very important oil exporter for the world and an important supplier for Europe. Oil was first discovered in the North Sea in late 1960s and the rapid expansion of Norwegian oil production lead to the low oil prices in the beginning of the 1990s. In 2001 Norway reached its peak production and began to decline.

    The Norwegian oil production can be broken up into four subclasses; giant oil fields, smaller oil fields, natural gas liquids and condensate. The production of each subclass was analyzed to find typical behaviour and decline rates. The typical decline rates of giant oil fields were found to be -13% annually. The other subclasses decline equally fast or even faster, especially condensate with typical decline rates of -40% annually. The conclusion from the forecast is that Norway will have dramatically reduced export volume of oil by 2030.

    Keywords
    Future Norwegian oil production, peak oil, decline rate, field-by-field analysis, oil production policy
    National Category
    Physical Sciences Other Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
    Research subject
    Physics with specialization in Global Energy Resources
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-100952 (URN)10.1016/j.enpol.2008.07.039 (DOI)000261020100028 ()
    Available from: 2009-04-14 Created: 2009-04-14 Last updated: 2017-12-13Bibliographically approved
    2. The evolution of giant oil field production behaviour
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>The evolution of giant oil field production behaviour
    2009 (English)In: Natural Resources Research, ISSN 1520-7439, E-ISSN 1573-8981, Vol. 18, no 1, p. 39-56Article in journal (Refereed) Published
    Abstract [en]

    The giant oil fields of the world are only a small fraction of the total number of fields, but their importance is huge. Over 50% of the world oil production came from giants by 2005 and more than haft of the worlds ultimate reserves are found in giants. Based on this it is reasonable to assume that the future development of the giant oil fields will have a significant impact on the world oil supply.

    In order to better understand the giant fields and their future behaviour one must first understand their history. This study has used a comprehensive database on giant oil fields in order to determine their typical parameters, such as the average decline rate and life-times of giants. The evolution of giant oil field behaviour has been investigated to better understand future behaviour. One conclusion is that new technology and production methods have generally lead to high depletion rate and rapid decline. The historical trend points towards high decline rates of fields currently on plateau production.

    The peak production generally occurs before half the ultimate reserves have been produced in giant oil fields. A strong correlation between depletion-at-peak and average decline rate is also found, verifying that high depletion rate leads to rapid decline. Our result also implies that depletion analysis can be used to rule out unrealistic production expectations from a known reserve, or to connect an estimated production level to a needed reserve base.

    Keywords
    Giant oil fields, field behaviour, peak oil, depletion
    National Category
    Physical Sciences Other Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
    Research subject
    Physics with specialization in Global Energy Resources
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-100954 (URN)10.1007/s11053-009-9087-z (DOI)
    Available from: 2009-04-14 Created: 2009-04-14 Last updated: 2017-12-13Bibliographically approved
    3. Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production
    2009 (English)In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 37, no 6, p. 2262-2272Article in journal (Refereed) Published
    Abstract [en]

    The most important contributors to the world's total oil production are the giant oil fields. Using a comprehensive database of giant oil field production, the average decline rates of the world's giant oil fields are estimated. Separating subclasses was necessary, since there are large differences between land and offshore fields, as well as between non-OPEC and OPEC fields. The evolution of decline rates over past decades includes the impact of new technologies and production techniques and clearly shows that the average decline rate for individual giant fields is increasing with time. These factors have significant implications for the future, since the most important world oil production base - giant fields - will decline more rapidly in the future, according to our findings. Our conclusion is that the world faces an increasing oil supply challenge, as the decline in existing production is not only high now but will be increasing in the future.

    Keywords
    Giant oil fields, decline rates, peak oil, future oil production
    National Category
    Physical Sciences Other Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
    Research subject
    Physics with specialization in Global Energy Resources
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-106701 (URN)10.1016/j.enpol.2009.02.020 (DOI)000266233300030 ()
    Available from: 2009-06-27 Created: 2009-06-27 Last updated: 2017-12-13Bibliographically approved
    4. How reasonable are oil production scenarios from public agencies?
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>How reasonable are oil production scenarios from public agencies?
    2009 (English)In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 37, no 11, p. 4809-4818Article in journal (Refereed) Published
    Abstract [en]

    According to the long term scenarios of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), conventional oil production is expected to grow until at least 2030. EIA has published results from a resource constrained production model which ostensibly supports such a scenario. The model is here described and analyzed in detail. However, it is shown that the model, although sound in principle, has been misapplied due to a confusion of resource categories. A correction of this methodological error reveals that EIA’s scenario requires rather extreme and implausible assumptions regarding future global decline rates. This result puts into question the basis for the conclusion that global "peak oil" would not occur before 2030.

    Keywords
    Peak oil, Depletion rate, R/P ratio
    National Category
    Physical Sciences Other Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
    Research subject
    Physics with specialization in Global Energy Resources
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-109736 (URN)10.1016/j.enpol.2009.06.042 (DOI)000271824600063 ()
    Available from: 2009-10-23 Created: 2009-10-23 Last updated: 2017-12-12Bibliographically approved
    5. Future Danish oil and gas export
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>Future Danish oil and gas export
    2009 (English)In: Energy, ISSN 0360-5442, E-ISSN 1873-6785, Vol. 34, no 11, p. 1826-1834Article in journal (Refereed) Published
    Abstract [en]

    Denmark possesses only a small share of the exploitation rights to North Sea oil and is a minor producer when compared to Norway and the UK. However, Denmark is still an oil exporter and a very important supplier of oil for certain countries, in particular Sweden.

    A field-by-field analysis of the Danish oil and gas fields, combined with estimated production contribution from new field developments, enhanced oil recovery and undiscovered fields, provides a future production outlook. The conclusion from this analysis is that by 2030 Denmark will no longer be an oil or gas exporter at all. Our results are also in agreement with the Danish Energy Authority’s own forecast, and may be seen as an independent confirmation of their general statements.

    Decreasing Danish oil production, coupled with a rapid decline in Norway’s oil output, will force Sweden to import oil from more distant markets in the future, dramatically reducing Swedish energy security. If no new gas suppliers are introduced to the Swedish grid, then Swedish gas consumption is clearly predestined to crumble alongside declining Danish production. Future hydrocarbon production from Denmark displays a clear link to Sweden’s future energy security.

    Keywords
    Future Danish oil and gas production, Field-by-field analysis, Swedish energy security
    National Category
    Physical Sciences Environmental Analysis and Construction Information Technology Other Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
    Research subject
    Physics with specialization in Global Energy Resources
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-109738 (URN)10.1016/j.energy.2009.07.028 (DOI)000272008200009 ()
    Available from: 2009-10-23 Created: 2009-10-23 Last updated: 2017-12-12Bibliographically approved
    6. The Peak of the Oil Age: Analyzing the world oil production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 2008
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>The Peak of the Oil Age: Analyzing the world oil production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 2008
    Show others...
    2010 (English)In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 38, no 3, p. 1398-1414Article in journal (Refereed) Published
    Abstract [en]

    The assessment of future global oil production presented in the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2008 (WEO 2008) is divided in to 6 fractions; four relate to crude oil, one to non-conventional oil, and the final fraction is natural-gas-liquids (NGL). Using the production parameter, depletion-rate-of-recoverable- resources, we have analyzed the four crude oil fractions and found that the 75 Mb/d of crude oil production forecast for year 2030 appears significantly overstated, and is more likely to be in the region of 55 Mb/d. Moreover, an alysis of the other fractions strongly suggests lower than expected production levels. In total, our analysis points to a world oil supply in 2030 of 75Mb/d, some 26 Mb/d lower than the IEA predicts. The connection between economic growth and energy use is fundamental in the IEA’s present modeling approach. Since our forecast sees little chance of a significant increase in global oil production, our findings suggest that the ‘‘policy makers, investors and end users’’ to whom WEO 2008 is addressed should rethink their future plans for economic growth. The fact that global oil production has very probably passed its maximum implies that we have reached the Peak of the Oil Age.

    Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
    Oxford: Elsevier Ltd, 2010
    Keywords
    Future oil supply, Peak oil, World Energy Outlook 2008
    National Category
    Physical Sciences Environmental Analysis and Construction Information Technology Other Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
    Research subject
    Physics with specialization in Global Energy Resources
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-112219 (URN)10.1016/j.enpol.2009.11.021 (DOI)000274500000019 ()
    Available from: 2010-01-11 Created: 2010-01-11 Last updated: 2017-12-12
    7. Development journey and outlook of Chinese giant oilfields
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>Development journey and outlook of Chinese giant oilfields
    2010 (English)In: Petroleum Exploration and Development, ISSN 1876-3804, Vol. 37, no 2, p. 237-249Article in journal (Refereed) Published
    Abstract [en]

    Over 70% of China’s domestic oil production is obtained from nine giant oilfields. Understanding the behaviour of these fields is essential to both domestic oil production and future Chinese oil imports. This study utilizes decline curves and depletion rate analysis to create some future production outlooks for the Chinese giants. Based on our study, we can only conclude that China’s future domestic oil production faces a significant challenge caused by maturing and declining giant fields. Evidence also indicates that the extensive use of water flooding and enhanced oil recovery methods may be masking increasing scarcity and may result in even steeper future decline rates than the ones currently being seen. Our results suggest that a considerable drop in oil production from the Chinese giants can be expected over the next decades.

    Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
    Elsevier, 2010
    Keywords
    Giant oil fields, future Chinese oil production, decline curve analysis, production modelling, oil production strategy
    National Category
    Physical Sciences Environmental Analysis and Construction Information Technology Other Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
    Research subject
    Physics with specialization in Global Energy Resources
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-126678 (URN)10.1016/S1876-3804(10)60030-4 (DOI)
    Available from: 2010-06-21 Created: 2010-06-21 Last updated: 2015-01-08Bibliographically approved
    8. Historical trends in American coal production and a possible future outlook
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>Historical trends in American coal production and a possible future outlook
    2009 (English)In: International Journal of Coal Geology, ISSN 0166-5162, E-ISSN 1872-7840, Vol. 78, no 3, p. 201-216Article in journal (Refereed) Published
    Abstract [en]

    The United States has a vast supply of coal, with almost 30% of world reserves and more than 1600 Gt (short) as remaining coal resources. The US is also the world’s second largest coal producer after China and annually produces more than twice as much coal as India, the third largest producer.

    The reserves are concentrated in a few states, giving them a major influence on future production. Historically many states have also shown a dramatic reduction in recoverable coal volumes and this has been closely investigated. Current recoverable estimates may also be too high, especially if further restrictions are imposed. The average calorific value of US coals has decreased from 29.2 MJ/kg in 1950 to 23.6 MJ/kg in 2007 as U.S. production moved to subbituminous western coals. This has also been examined in more detail.

    This study also uses established analysis methods from oil and gas production forecasting, such as Hubbert linearization and logistic curves, to create some possible future outlooks for U.S. coal production. In one case, the production stabilizes at 1400 Mt annually and remains there until the end of the century, provided that Montana dramatically increases coal output. The second case, which ignores mining restrictions, forecasts a maximum production of 2500 Mt annually by the end of the century.

    Keywords
    USA, future coal production, peak coal, coal reserves, logistic model
    National Category
    Physical Sciences Environmental Analysis and Construction Information Technology Other Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
    Research subject
    Physics with specialization in Global Energy Resources
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-100953 (URN)10.1016/j.coal.2009.03.002 (DOI)000266178900003 ()
    Available from: 2009-04-14 Created: 2009-04-14 Last updated: 2017-12-13Bibliographically approved
    9. Trends in U.S. recoverable coal supply estimates and future production outlooks
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>Trends in U.S. recoverable coal supply estimates and future production outlooks
    2010 (English)In: Natural Resources Research, ISSN 1520-7439, E-ISSN 1573-8981, Vol. 19, no 3, p. 189-208Article in journal (Refereed) Published
    Abstract [en]

    The geological coal resource of the U.S. is abundant and proved coal reserves are listed as the world’s largest. However, the reserves are unevenly distributed and located in a small number of states, giving them major influence over future production. A long history of coal mining provides detailed time series of production and reserve estimates, which can be used to identify historical trends. In reviewing the historical evolution of coal reserves, one can state that the trend here does not point towards any major increases in available recoverable reserves; rather the opposite is true due to restrictions and increased focus on environmental impacts from coal extraction. Future coal production will not be entirely determined by what is geologically available, but rather by the fraction of that amount that is practically recoverable. Consequently, the historical trend towards reduced recoverable amounts is likely to continue into the future, with even stricter regulations imposed by increased environmental concern.

    Long-term outlooks can be created in many ways, but ultimately the production must be limited by recoverable volumes since coal is a finite resource. The geologic amounts of coal are of much less importance to future production than the practically recoverable volumes. The geological coal supply might be vast, but the important question is how large the share that can be extracted under present restrictions are and how those restrictions will develop in the future. Production limitations might therefore appear much sooner than previously expected.

    Keywords
    US coal reserves, future production, peak coal
    National Category
    Physical Sciences Other Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Environmental Analysis and Construction Information Technology
    Research subject
    Physics with specialization in Global Energy Resources
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-125519 (URN)10.1007/s11053-010-9121-1 (DOI)
    Note
    This is a slightly revised and improved version of the conference paper that was presented in 2009Available from: 2010-05-20 Created: 2010-05-20 Last updated: 2017-12-12Bibliographically approved
    10. Global coal production outlooks based on a logistic model
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>Global coal production outlooks based on a logistic model
    2010 (English)In: Fuel, ISSN 0016-2361, E-ISSN 1873-7153, Vol. 89, no 11, p. 3546-3558Article in journal (Refereed) Published
    Abstract [en]

    A small number of nations control the vast majority of the world’s coal reserves. The geologically available amounts of coal are vast, but geological availability is not enough to ensure future production since economics and restrictions also play an important role. Historical trends in reserve and resource assessments can provide some insight about future coal supply and provide reasonable limits for modelling. This study uses a logistic model to create long-term outlooks for global coal production. A global peak in coal production can be expected between 2020 and 2050, depending on estimates of recoverable volumes. This is also compared with other forecasts. The overall conclusion is that the global coal production could reach a maximum level much sooner than most observers expect.

    Keywords
    Future coal production, peak coal, logistic model, historical reserve and resource assessments
    National Category
    Physical Sciences Environmental Analysis and Construction Information Technology Other Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
    Research subject
    Physics with specialization in Global Energy Resources
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-127196 (URN)10.1016/j.fuel.2010.06.013 (DOI)000280604000050 ()
    Available from: 2010-07-07 Created: 2010-07-07 Last updated: 2017-12-12Bibliographically approved
  • 6.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Coal and Peat: global resources and future supply2012In: Encyclopedia of Sustainability Science and Technology / [ed] R.A. Mayer, New York: Springer , 2012Chapter in book (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Coal is the second most important fuel currently used by mankind, accounting for over 25% of the world’s primary energy supply. It provides 41% of global electricity supplies and is a vital fuel or production input for the steel, cement and chemical industries. However, coal is a fossil fuel formed from organic material by geological processes over millions of years. Hence, coal is a finite resource in terms of human time scales and its continued availability is important to the world economy.

    Peat is a related substance, but is classified somewhere between a fossil fuel and biomass. The energy sector uses peat as a fuel to generate electricity and heat. It also has applications in industrial, residential and other sectors but global consumption of peat is insignificant in comparison to coal. Peat shares many similarities with coal and is increasingly often grouped with coal for resource estimates in reports and assessments by public agencies.

    Knowing how coal and peat are created is vital to understanding how deposits are formed and what their basic properties are. Geology provides models and methodologies for describing deposits and where to find them. Exploration, drilling and surveys provide the data necessary to map deposits and assess the resources they contain. Classification schemes are also central to understanding how the terms relate to the underlying data.

    Future production of coal and peat is essential for the development of global energy supplies. It is only the produced volumes that can be used in human activities and a detailed appreciation of the production process is essential in understanding future supply developments. Factors such as economy, technology, legal and environmental constraints affect the recoverable share of the available resources, i.e. the reserves. Understanding the complexity and the greater whole of the production mechanism and the limitations that are imposed on it require a wide variety of approaches and conceptual infrastructures.

  • 7.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Depletion and decline curve analysis in crude oil production2009Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Oil is the black blood that runs through the veins of the modern global energy system. While being the dominant source of energy, oil has also brought wealth and power to the western world. Future supply for oil is unsure or even expected to decrease due to limitations imposed by peak oil. Energy is fundamental to all parts of society. The enormous growth and development of society in the last two-hundred years has been driven by rapid increase in the extraction of fossil fuels. In the foresee-able future, the majority of energy will still come from fossil fuels. Consequently, reliable methods for forecasting their production, especially crude oil, are crucial. Forecasting crude oil production can be done in many different ways, but in order to provide realistic outlooks, one must be mindful of the physical laws that affect extraction of hydrocarbons from a reser-voir. Decline curve analysis is a long established tool for developing future outlooks for oil production from an individual well or an entire oilfield. Depletion has a fundamental role in the extraction of finite resources and is one of the driving mechanisms for oil flows within a reservoir. Depletion rate also can be connected to decline curves. Consequently, depletion analysis is a useful tool for analysis and forecasting crude oil production. Based on comprehensive databases with reserve and production data for hundreds of oil fields, it has been possible to identify typical behaviours and properties. Using a combination of depletion and decline rate analysis gives a better tool for describing future oil production on a field-by-field level. Reliable and reasonable forecasts are essential for planning and nec-essary in order to understand likely future world oil production.

    List of papers
    1. A decline rate study of Norwegian oil production
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>A decline rate study of Norwegian oil production
    2008 (English)In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 36, no 11, p. 4262-4271Article in journal (Refereed) Published
    Abstract [en]

    Norway has been a very important oil exporter for the world and an important supplier for Europe. Oil was first discovered in the North Sea in late 1960s and the rapid expansion of Norwegian oil production lead to the low oil prices in the beginning of the 1990s. In 2001 Norway reached its peak production and began to decline.

    The Norwegian oil production can be broken up into four subclasses; giant oil fields, smaller oil fields, natural gas liquids and condensate. The production of each subclass was analyzed to find typical behaviour and decline rates. The typical decline rates of giant oil fields were found to be -13% annually. The other subclasses decline equally fast or even faster, especially condensate with typical decline rates of -40% annually. The conclusion from the forecast is that Norway will have dramatically reduced export volume of oil by 2030.

    Keywords
    Future Norwegian oil production, peak oil, decline rate, field-by-field analysis, oil production policy
    National Category
    Physical Sciences Other Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
    Research subject
    Physics with specialization in Global Energy Resources
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-100952 (URN)10.1016/j.enpol.2008.07.039 (DOI)000261020100028 ()
    Available from: 2009-04-14 Created: 2009-04-14 Last updated: 2017-12-13Bibliographically approved
    2. The evolution of giant oil field production behaviour
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>The evolution of giant oil field production behaviour
    2009 (English)In: Natural Resources Research, ISSN 1520-7439, E-ISSN 1573-8981, Vol. 18, no 1, p. 39-56Article in journal (Refereed) Published
    Abstract [en]

    The giant oil fields of the world are only a small fraction of the total number of fields, but their importance is huge. Over 50% of the world oil production came from giants by 2005 and more than haft of the worlds ultimate reserves are found in giants. Based on this it is reasonable to assume that the future development of the giant oil fields will have a significant impact on the world oil supply.

    In order to better understand the giant fields and their future behaviour one must first understand their history. This study has used a comprehensive database on giant oil fields in order to determine their typical parameters, such as the average decline rate and life-times of giants. The evolution of giant oil field behaviour has been investigated to better understand future behaviour. One conclusion is that new technology and production methods have generally lead to high depletion rate and rapid decline. The historical trend points towards high decline rates of fields currently on plateau production.

    The peak production generally occurs before half the ultimate reserves have been produced in giant oil fields. A strong correlation between depletion-at-peak and average decline rate is also found, verifying that high depletion rate leads to rapid decline. Our result also implies that depletion analysis can be used to rule out unrealistic production expectations from a known reserve, or to connect an estimated production level to a needed reserve base.

    Keywords
    Giant oil fields, field behaviour, peak oil, depletion
    National Category
    Physical Sciences Other Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
    Research subject
    Physics with specialization in Global Energy Resources
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-100954 (URN)10.1007/s11053-009-9087-z (DOI)
    Available from: 2009-04-14 Created: 2009-04-14 Last updated: 2017-12-13Bibliographically approved
    3. Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production
    2009 (English)In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 37, no 6, p. 2262-2272Article in journal (Refereed) Published
    Abstract [en]

    The most important contributors to the world's total oil production are the giant oil fields. Using a comprehensive database of giant oil field production, the average decline rates of the world's giant oil fields are estimated. Separating subclasses was necessary, since there are large differences between land and offshore fields, as well as between non-OPEC and OPEC fields. The evolution of decline rates over past decades includes the impact of new technologies and production techniques and clearly shows that the average decline rate for individual giant fields is increasing with time. These factors have significant implications for the future, since the most important world oil production base - giant fields - will decline more rapidly in the future, according to our findings. Our conclusion is that the world faces an increasing oil supply challenge, as the decline in existing production is not only high now but will be increasing in the future.

    Keywords
    Giant oil fields, decline rates, peak oil, future oil production
    National Category
    Physical Sciences Other Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
    Research subject
    Physics with specialization in Global Energy Resources
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-106701 (URN)10.1016/j.enpol.2009.02.020 (DOI)000266233300030 ()
    Available from: 2009-06-27 Created: 2009-06-27 Last updated: 2017-12-13Bibliographically approved
  • 8.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Fuelling Future Emissions: Examining Fossil Fuel Production Outlooks Used in Climate Models2011In: Climate Change: Research and Technology for Adaptation and Mitigation / [ed] Juan Blanco, Houshang Kheradmand, Intech , 2011, p. 39-62Chapter in book (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The anthropogenic component of projected climate change is dependent on the future emissions of greenhouse gasses. Energy production is, with a roughly 60% share, the principal contributor to mankind’s release of CO2 to the atmosphere. This is predominantly caused by the use of fossil fuels in various combustion processes. Consequently, anthropogenic emissions and global warming are fundamentally linked to future energy production. Projections of how the global energy system will develop over the next centuryare cornerstones in the assessment of future climate change caused by mankind.

  • 9.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Future coal production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios: Are they plausible?2010In: Twenty Seventh Annual International Pittsburgh Coal Conference: October 11 - 14, 2010, 2010Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Anthropogenic climate change caused by CO

    The assumptions on resource availability are in SRES based on Rogner’s assessment of world hydrocarbon resources from 1997, where it is stated that "the sheer size of the fossil resource base makes fossil sources an energy supply option for many centuries to come". Regarding the future coal production it is simply assumed to be dependent on economics, accessibility, and environmental acceptance. It is also generally assumed that coal is abundant, and will thus take a dominating part in the future energy system. Depletion, geographical location and geological parameters are not given much influence in the scenario storylines.

    This study quantifies what the coal production projection in SRES would imply in reality. SRES is riddled with future production projections that would put unreasonable expectation on just a few countries or regions. Is it reasonable to expect that China, among the world’s largest coal reserve and resource holder and producer, would increase their production by a factor of 8 over the next 90 years, as implied by certain scenarios? Can massive increases in global coal output really be justified from historical trends or will reality rule out some production outlooks as implausible?

    The fundamental assumptions regarding future fossil fuel production in SRES was investigated and compared with scientific methodology regarding reasonable future production trajectories. Historical data from the past 20 years was used to test how well the production scenarios agree with actual reality. Some of the scenarios turned out to mismatch with reality, and should be ruled out. Given the importance of coal utilization as a source of anthropogenic GHG emissions it is necessary to use realistic production trajectories that incorporate geological and physical data as well as socioeconomic parameters. SRES is underpinned by a paradigm of perpetual growth and technological optimism as well as old and outdated estimates regarding the availability of fossil energy. This has resulted in overoptimistic production outlooks.

    2 emissions is strongly and fundamentally linked to the future energy production. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) from 2000 contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. Coal, with its 26% share of world energy, is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions and commonly seen as a key contributor to anthropogenic climate change. SRES contains a wide array of different coal production outlooks, ranging from a complete coal phase-out by 2100 to a roughly tenfold increase from present world production levels. Scenarios with high levels of global warming also have high expectations on future fossil fuel production.

  • 10.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Future coal production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios: Are they plausible?2011In: Energy and Environment, ISSN 0958-305X, E-ISSN 2048-4070, Vol. 22, no 7, p. 837-858Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Anthropogenic climate change caused by CO2 emissions is strongly linked to the future energy production, specifically coal. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. This study examines the SRES coal production outlooks. Fundamental assumptions regarding coal availability and production in SRES was also compared with recent studies on reasonable future production outlooks. It was found that SRES puts unreasonable expectation on just a few countries. Is it reasonable to expect that China, already accounting for 46% of the global output, would increase their production by a factor of 8 over the next 90 years, as implied by certain SRES scenarios? It is concluded that SRES is underpinned by a paradigm of perpetual growth and technological optimism as well as old and outdated resource estimates. This has resulted in overoptimistic production outlooks.

  • 11.
    Höök, Mikael
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Bardi, Ugo
    University of Firenze.
    Feng, Lianyong
    China University of Petroleum - Beijing.
    Pang, Xiongqi
    China University of Petroleum - Beijing.
    Development of oil formation theories and their importance for peak oil2010In: Marine and Petroleum Geology, ISSN 0264-8172, E-ISSN 1873-4073, Vol. 27, no 9, p. 1995-2004Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper reviews the historical development of both biogenic and non-biogenic petroleum formation. It also examines the recent claim that the so-called “abiotic” oil formation theory undermines the concept of “peak oil,” i.e. the notion that world oil production is destined to reach a maximum that will be followed by an irreversible decline. We show that peak oil is first and foremost a matter of production flows. Consequently, the mechanism of oil formation does not strongly affect depletion. We would need to revise the theory beyond peak oil only for the extreme — and unlikely — hypothesis of abiotic petroleum formation.

  • 12.
    Höök, Mikael
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Li, Junchen
    China University of Petroleum.
    Oba, Noriaki
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Snowden, Simon
    University of Liverpool.
    Descriptive and predictive growth curves in energy system analysis2011In: Natural Resources Research, ISSN 1520-7439, E-ISSN 1573-8981, Vol. 20, no 2, p. 103-116Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study reviews a variety of growth curve models and the theoretical frameworks that lay behind them. In many systems, growth patterns are, or must, ultimately be subjected to some form of limitation. A number of curve models have been developed to describe and predict such behaviours. Symmetric growth curves have frequently been used for forecasting fossil fuel production, but others have expressed a need for more flexible and asymmetric models.

    A number of examples show differences and applications of various growth curve models. It is concluded that these growth curve models can be utilised as forecasting tools, but are do not necessarily provide better predictions than any other method. Consequently, growth curve models and other forecasting methods should be used together to provide a triangulated forecast. Furthermore, the growth curve methodology offers a simple tool for resource management to determine what might happen to future production if resource availability poses a problem. In the light of peak oil and the awareness of natural resources as a basis for the continued well-being of society and mankind, resource management should be an important factor in future social planning.

  • 13.
    Höök, Mikael
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Sivertsson, Anders
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Aleklett, Kjell
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Validity of the fossil fuel production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios2010In: Natural Resources Research, ISSN 1520-7439, E-ISSN 1573-8981, Vol. 19, no 2, p. 63-81Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Anthropogenic global warming caused by CO2 emissions is strongly and fundamentally linked to future energy production. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) from 2000 contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. Previous scenarios were withdrawn after exaggerating one or several trends. This study investigates underlying assumptions on resource availability and future production expectations to determine whether exaggerations can be found in the present set of emission scenarios as well.

    It is found that the SRES unnecessarily takes an overoptimistic stance and that future production expectations are leaning towards spectacular increases from present output levels. In summary, we can only encourage the IPCC to involve more resource experts and natural science in future emission scenarios. The current set, SRES, is biased toward exaggerated resource availability and unrealistic expectations on future production outputs from fossil fuels.

  • 14.
    Höök, Mikael
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Tang, Xu
    China University of Petroleum.
    Pang, Xiongqi
    China University of Petroleum.
    Aleklett, Kjell
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Development journey and outlook of Chinese giant oilfields2010In: Petroleum Exploration and Development, ISSN 1876-3804, Vol. 37, no 2, p. 237-249Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Over 70% of China’s domestic oil production is obtained from nine giant oilfields. Understanding the behaviour of these fields is essential to both domestic oil production and future Chinese oil imports. This study utilizes decline curves and depletion rate analysis to create some future production outlooks for the Chinese giants. Based on our study, we can only conclude that China’s future domestic oil production faces a significant challenge caused by maturing and declining giant fields. Evidence also indicates that the extensive use of water flooding and enhanced oil recovery methods may be masking increasing scarcity and may result in even steeper future decline rates than the ones currently being seen. Our results suggest that a considerable drop in oil production from the Chinese giants can be expected over the next decades.

  • 15.
    Höök, Mikael
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Zittel, Werner
    Ludwig Bölkow Systemtechnik GmbH.
    Schindler, Jörg
    Ludwig Bölkow Systemtechnik GmbH.
    Aleklett, Kjell
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    A supply-driven forecast for the future global coal production2008Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Several countries have already reached a maximum of coal production and are in decline, for instance Germany, The UK and Japan. A vast majority of the world’s coal reserves are located within six countries, the Big Six, which control around 85% of the world’s coal. None of these countries has yet reached maximum coal production and when they do they will consequently have a large impact on the global coal production.

    The global coal production is forecasted by using a logistic growth model and experience from historical reserve and resource assessments. A maximum production will be reached by 2030. Comparisons are made with other forecasts and the emission scenarios for climate change.

  • 16.
    Jakobsson, Kristofer
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Modeling Oil Exploration and Production: Resource-Constrained and Agent-Based Approaches2010Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Energy is essential to the functioning of society, and oil is the single largest commercial energy source. Some analysts have concluded that the peak in oil production is soon about to happen on the global scale, while others disagree. Such incompatible views can persist because the issue of “peak oil” cuts through the established scientific disciplines. The question is: what characterizes the modeling approaches that are available today, and how can they be further developed to improve a trans-disciplinary understanding of oil depletion? The objective of this thesis is to present long-term scenarios of oil production (Paper I) using a resource-constrained model; and an agent-based model of the oil exploration process (Paper II). It is also an objective to assess the strengths, limitations, and future development potentials of resource-constrained modeling, analytical economic modeling, and agent-based modeling. Resource-constrained models are only suitable when the time frame is measured in decades, but they can give a rough indication of which production scenarios are reasonable given the size of the resource. However, the models are comprehensible, transparent and the only feasible long-term forecasting tools at present. It is certainly possible to distinguish between reasonable scenarios, based on historically observed parameter values, and unreasonable scenarios with parameter values obtained through flawed analogy. The economic subfield of optimal depletion theory is founded on the notion of rational economic agents, and there is a causal relation between decisions made at the micro-level and the macro-result. In terms of future improvements, however, the analytical form considerably restricts the versatility of the approach. Agent-based modeling makes it feasible to combine economically motivated agents with a physical environment. An example relating to oil exploration is given in Paper II, where it is shown that the exploratory activities of individual agents can yield a U-shaped exploration cost path. Agent-based modeling appears to have significant potential for future development, but it is still unclear whether it will be the most useful in policy evaluation or more generalized systems research.

    List of papers
    1. How reasonable are oil production scenarios from public agencies?
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>How reasonable are oil production scenarios from public agencies?
    2009 (English)In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 37, no 11, p. 4809-4818Article in journal (Refereed) Published
    Abstract [en]

    According to the long term scenarios of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), conventional oil production is expected to grow until at least 2030. EIA has published results from a resource constrained production model which ostensibly supports such a scenario. The model is here described and analyzed in detail. However, it is shown that the model, although sound in principle, has been misapplied due to a confusion of resource categories. A correction of this methodological error reveals that EIA’s scenario requires rather extreme and implausible assumptions regarding future global decline rates. This result puts into question the basis for the conclusion that global "peak oil" would not occur before 2030.

    Keywords
    Peak oil, Depletion rate, R/P ratio
    National Category
    Physical Sciences Other Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
    Research subject
    Physics with specialization in Global Energy Resources
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-109736 (URN)10.1016/j.enpol.2009.06.042 (DOI)000271824600063 ()
    Available from: 2009-10-23 Created: 2009-10-23 Last updated: 2017-12-12Bibliographically approved
  • 17.
    Jakobsson, Kristofer
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Petroleum Production and Exploration: Approaching the End of Cheap Oil with Bottom-Up Modeling2012Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The theme of this thesis is the depletion of petroleum (crude oil and natural gas). Are there reasons to be concerned about an ‘end of cheap oil’ in the near future? There is a lively debate regarding this issue. The debate is sometimes described as a clash of ‘concerned’ natural scientists and ‘unconcerned’ economists. However, this clash is both harmful and unnecessary. The views of natural scientists and economists can and should be reconciled. At the micro-level, geological and physical factors (such as diminishing reservoir productivity) are parameters in the producer’s economic optimization problem. Bottom-up modeling therefore appears to hold more promise for forming a common understanding of depletion than prevailing top-down models, such as the controversial Hubbert model.

    The appended papers treat various aspects of petroleum depletion: critical examination of top-down scenarios (I); bottom-up economic and geologic modeling of regional production (II); review of published bottom-up models and sensitivity analysis (III); simulation of success rates and expectations in oil exploration (IV); bottom-up scenarios of future natural gas production in Norway (V) and Russia (VI); empirical analysis of production profiles of giant oil fields (VII).

    Bottom-up models have the potential to be accepted by scientists from different disciplines, and they enable interpretable sensitivity analyses. They are, however, not likely to reduce quantitative uncertainty in long-term scenarios. There is theoretical evidence of the possibility that petroleum scarcity occurs long before the recoverable resource is close to exhaustion. This result is a consequence of both geological and economical factors. Several arguments for an ‘unconcerned’ view are at best uncertain, and at worst relying on questionable assumptions (analyzing reserves rather than production flows, using irrelevant reserve definitions, using average cost instead of marginal cost). The considerable uncertainty regarding an issue of such importance is in itself a cause for concern.

    List of papers
    1. How reasonable are oil production scenarios from public agencies?
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>How reasonable are oil production scenarios from public agencies?
    2009 (English)In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 37, no 11, p. 4809-4818Article in journal (Refereed) Published
    Abstract [en]

    According to the long term scenarios of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), conventional oil production is expected to grow until at least 2030. EIA has published results from a resource constrained production model which ostensibly supports such a scenario. The model is here described and analyzed in detail. However, it is shown that the model, although sound in principle, has been misapplied due to a confusion of resource categories. A correction of this methodological error reveals that EIA’s scenario requires rather extreme and implausible assumptions regarding future global decline rates. This result puts into question the basis for the conclusion that global "peak oil" would not occur before 2030.

    Keywords
    Peak oil, Depletion rate, R/P ratio
    National Category
    Physical Sciences Other Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
    Research subject
    Physics with specialization in Global Energy Resources
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-109736 (URN)10.1016/j.enpol.2009.06.042 (DOI)000271824600063 ()
    Available from: 2009-10-23 Created: 2009-10-23 Last updated: 2017-12-12Bibliographically approved
    2. The end of cheap oil: Bottom-up economic and geologic modeling of aggregate oil production curves
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>The end of cheap oil: Bottom-up economic and geologic modeling of aggregate oil production curves
    2012 (English)In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 41, p. 860-870Article in journal (Refereed) Published
    Abstract [en]

    There is a lively debate between 'concerned' and 'unconcerned' analysts regarding the future availability and affordability of oil. We critically examine two interrelated and seemingly plausible arguments for an unconcerned view: (1) there is a growing amount of remaining reserves: (2) there is a large amount of oil with a relatively low average production cost. These statements are unconvincing on both theoretical and empirical grounds. Oil availability is about flows rather than stocks, and average cost is not relevant in the determination of price and output. We subsequently implement a bottom-up model of regional oil production with micro-foundations in both natural science and economics. An oil producer optimizes net present value under the constraints of reservoir dynamics, technological capacity and economic circumstances. Optimal production profiles for different reservoir drives and economic scenarios are derived. The field model is then combined with a discovery model of random sampling from a lognormal field size-frequency distribution. Regional discovery and production scenarios are generated. Our approach does not rely on the simple assumptions of top-down models such as the Hubbert curve - however it leads to the same qualitative result that production peaks when a substantial fraction of the recoverable resource remains in-ground.

    Keywords
    Peak oil, Bottom-up modeling, Micro-foundations
    National Category
    Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-163177 (URN)10.1016/j.enpol.2011.11.073 (DOI)000301155500085 ()
    Available from: 2011-12-08 Created: 2011-12-08 Last updated: 2017-12-08Bibliographically approved
    3. Bottom-up modeling of oil production: Review and sensitivity analysis
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>Bottom-up modeling of oil production: Review and sensitivity analysis
    (English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    National Category
    Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-163179 (URN)
    Available from: 2011-12-08 Created: 2011-12-08 Last updated: 2012-02-15
    4. Oil exploration and perceptions of scarcity: The fallacy of early success
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>Oil exploration and perceptions of scarcity: The fallacy of early success
    Show others...
    2012 (English)In: Energy Economics, ISSN 0140-9883, E-ISSN 1873-6181, Vol. 34, no 4, p. 1226-1233Article in journal (Refereed) Published
    Abstract [en]

    It has been suggested that oil exploration may lead to false perceptions of decreasing scarcity. We perform a simulation of the exploration process using Bayesian updating. The approach enables us to isolate the information effect on the success rate and also to quantify the subjective expectation of the total resource size. The area under exploration consists of a number of regions which may differ in their oil content. Exploration is performed with the goal to maximize the expected success rate. The resulting information about the distribution of oil and the total resource size is assumed public knowledge. A number of scenarios with variations in the dimensions of the area under exploration, the oil distribution and initial beliefs are considered. The results indicate that the information effect on the success rate is significant but brief — it might have a considerable impact on price but is an unlikely mechanism behind a long-term declining price trend. However, the information effect on expectations is gradual and persistent. Since exploration is performed in regions where the expected success rate is the highest, the historical success rate will not be representative of the area as a whole. An explorer will tend to overestimate the total resource size, thereby suggesting an alternative mechanism for false perceptions of decreasing scarcity, a mechanism that could be called the “fallacy of early success”.

    Keywords
    Oil exploration, Success rate, Expectation bias, Bayesian updating, U-shaped price path
    National Category
    Economics Geosciences, Multidisciplinary Energy Systems
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-163174 (URN)10.1016/j.eneco.2011.11.003 (DOI)000306158000038 ()
    Available from: 2011-12-08 Created: 2011-12-08 Last updated: 2017-12-08Bibliographically approved
    5. European energy security: The future of Norwegian natural gas production
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>European energy security: The future of Norwegian natural gas production
    2009 (English)In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 37, no 12, p. 5037-5055Article in journal (Refereed) Published
    Abstract [en]

    The European Union (EU) is expected to meet its future growing demand for natural gas by increased imports. In 2006, Norway had a 21% share of EU gas imports. The Norwegian government has communicated that Norwegian gas production will increase by 25–40% from today’s level of about 99 billion cubic meters (bcm)/year. This article shows that only a 20–25% growth of Norwegian gas production is possible due to production from currently existing recoverable reserves and contingent resources. A high and a low production forecast for Norwegian gas production is presented. Norwegian gas production exported by pipeline peaks between 2015 and 2016, with minimum peak production in 2015 at 118 bcm/year and maximum peak production at 127 bcm/year in 2016. By 2030 the pipeline Export levels are 94–78 bcm. Total Norwegian gas production peaks between 2015 and 2020, with peak production at 124–135 bcm/year. By 2030 the production is 96–115 bcm/year. The results show that there is a limited potential for increased gas exports from Norway to the EU and that Norwegian gas production is declining by 2030 in all scenarios. Annual Norwegian pipeline gas exports to the EU, by 2030, may even be 20 bcm lower than today’s level.

    Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
    Oxford: Elsevier Limited, 2009
    Keywords
    Norway, natural gas production, forecast
    National Category
    Physical Sciences
    Research subject
    Physics
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-112216 (URN)10.1016/j.enpol.2009.06.075 (DOI)000272426500005 ()
    Available from: 2010-01-11 Created: 2010-01-11 Last updated: 2017-12-12Bibliographically approved
    6. European energy security: An analysis of future Russian natural gas production and exports
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>European energy security: An analysis of future Russian natural gas production and exports
    2010 (English)In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 38, no 12, p. 7827-7843Article in journal (Refereed) Published
    Abstract [en]

    The widening gap between EU gas production and consumption may require an 87% increase of import volumes between 2006 and 2030, and there are great uncertainties regarding the amounts of gas that can be expected from new suppliers. The potential of increased production from Norway and Algeria is limited, hence, Russia is likely to play a crucial part of meeting the anticipated growing gas demand of the EU. A field-by-field study of 83 giant gas fields shows that the major producing Russian gas fields are in decline, and by 2013 much larger supplies from the Yamal Peninsula and the Shtokman field will be needed in order to avoid a decline in production. Gas from fields in Eastern Siberia and the Far East will mainly be directed to the Asian and Pacific Rim markets, thereby limiting its relevance to the European and CIS markets. As a result, the maximum export increase to the European and CIS markets amounts only to about 45% for the period 2015-2030. The discourse surrounding the EU’s dependence on Russian gas should thus not only be concerned with geopolitics, but also with the issue of resource limitations.

    Keywords
    Russia, giant gas fields, forecasting
    National Category
    Physical Sciences
    Research subject
    Physics
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-112221 (URN)10.1016/j.enpol.2010.08.042 (DOI)000285032000030 ()
    Available from: 2010-01-11 Created: 2010-01-11 Last updated: 2017-12-12Bibliographically approved
    7. The evolution of giant oil field production behaviour
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>The evolution of giant oil field production behaviour
    2009 (English)In: Natural Resources Research, ISSN 1520-7439, E-ISSN 1573-8981, Vol. 18, no 1, p. 39-56Article in journal (Refereed) Published
    Abstract [en]

    The giant oil fields of the world are only a small fraction of the total number of fields, but their importance is huge. Over 50% of the world oil production came from giants by 2005 and more than haft of the worlds ultimate reserves are found in giants. Based on this it is reasonable to assume that the future development of the giant oil fields will have a significant impact on the world oil supply.

    In order to better understand the giant fields and their future behaviour one must first understand their history. This study has used a comprehensive database on giant oil fields in order to determine their typical parameters, such as the average decline rate and life-times of giants. The evolution of giant oil field behaviour has been investigated to better understand future behaviour. One conclusion is that new technology and production methods have generally lead to high depletion rate and rapid decline. The historical trend points towards high decline rates of fields currently on plateau production.

    The peak production generally occurs before half the ultimate reserves have been produced in giant oil fields. A strong correlation between depletion-at-peak and average decline rate is also found, verifying that high depletion rate leads to rapid decline. Our result also implies that depletion analysis can be used to rule out unrealistic production expectations from a known reserve, or to connect an estimated production level to a needed reserve base.

    Keywords
    Giant oil fields, field behaviour, peak oil, depletion
    National Category
    Physical Sciences Other Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
    Research subject
    Physics with specialization in Global Energy Resources
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-100954 (URN)10.1007/s11053-009-9087-z (DOI)
    Available from: 2009-04-14 Created: 2009-04-14 Last updated: 2017-12-13Bibliographically approved
  • 18.
    Jakobsson, Kristofer
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Bentley, Roger
    University of Reading.
    Söderbergh, Bengt
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Aleklett, Kjell
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    The end of cheap oil: Bottom-up economic and geologic modeling of aggregate oil production curves2012In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 41, p. 860-870Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    There is a lively debate between 'concerned' and 'unconcerned' analysts regarding the future availability and affordability of oil. We critically examine two interrelated and seemingly plausible arguments for an unconcerned view: (1) there is a growing amount of remaining reserves: (2) there is a large amount of oil with a relatively low average production cost. These statements are unconvincing on both theoretical and empirical grounds. Oil availability is about flows rather than stocks, and average cost is not relevant in the determination of price and output. We subsequently implement a bottom-up model of regional oil production with micro-foundations in both natural science and economics. An oil producer optimizes net present value under the constraints of reservoir dynamics, technological capacity and economic circumstances. Optimal production profiles for different reservoir drives and economic scenarios are derived. The field model is then combined with a discovery model of random sampling from a lognormal field size-frequency distribution. Regional discovery and production scenarios are generated. Our approach does not rely on the simple assumptions of top-down models such as the Hubbert curve - however it leads to the same qualitative result that production peaks when a substantial fraction of the recoverable resource remains in-ground.

  • 19.
    Jakobsson, Kristofer
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Söderbergh, Bengt
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
    Snowden, Simon
    University of Liverpool Management School.
    Aleklett, Kjell
    Uppsala