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  • 1.
    Davidsson, Simon
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems.
    Wall, Göran
    Gotland University, Department of Culture, Energy and Environment.
    A review of life cycle assessments on wind energy systems2012In: The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, ISSN 0948-3349, E-ISSN 1614-7502, Vol. 17, no 6, p. 729-742Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Purpose

    Several life cycle assessments (LCA) of wind energy published in recent years are reviewed to identify methodological differences and underlying assumptions.

    Methods

    A full comparative analysis of 12 studies were undertaken (10 peer-reviewed papers, 1 conference paper, 1 industry report) regarding six fundamental factors (methods used, energy use accounting, quantification of energy production, energy performance and primary energy,  natural resources, and recycling). Each factor is discussed in detail to highlight strengths and shortcomings of various approaches.

    Results

    Several potential issues are found concerning the way LCA methods are used for assessing energy performance and environmental impact of wind energy, as well as dealing with natural resource use and depletion. The potential to evaluate natural resource use and depletion impacts from wind energy appears to be poorly exploited or elaborated on in the reviewed studies. Estimations of energy performance and environmental impacts are critically analyzed and found to differ significantly.

    Conclusions and recommendations

    A continued discussion and development of LCA methodology for wind energy and other energy resources are encouraged. Efforts should be made to standardize methods and calculations. Inconsistent use of terminology and concepts among the analyzed studies are found and should be remedied. Different methods are generally used and the results are presented in diverse ways, making it hard to compare studies with each other, but also with other renewable energy sources.

  • 2.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems.
    Depletion rate analysis of fields and regions: a methodological foundation2014In: Fuel, ISSN 0016-2361, E-ISSN 1873-7153, Vol. 121, no 4, p. 95-108Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper presents a comprehensive mathematical framework for depletion rate analysis and ties it to the physics of depletion. Theory was compared with empirical data from 1036 fields and a number of regions. Strong agreement between theory and practice was found, indicating that the framework is plausible. Both single fields and entire regions exhibit similar depletion rate patterns, showing the generality of the approach. The maximum depletion rates for fields were found to be well described by a Weibull distribution.

    Depletion rates were also found to strongly correlate with decline rates. In particular, the depletion rate at peak was shown to be useful for predicting the future decline rate. Studies of regions indicate that a depletion rate of remaining recoverable resources in the range of 2–3% is consistent with historical experience. This agrees well with earlier “peak oil” forecasts and indicates that they rest on a solid scientific ground. 

  • 3.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems.
    Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND)2011Other (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 4.
    Höök, Mikael
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems.
    Davidsson, Simon
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems.
    Johansson, Sheshti
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems.
    Tang, Xu
    China University of Petroleum - Beijing.
    Decline and depletion rates of oil production: a comprehensive investigation2014In: Philosophical Transactions. Series A: Mathematical, physical, and engineering science, ISSN 1364-503X, E-ISSN 1471-2962, Vol. 372, no 2006, p. 0120448-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Two of the most fundamental concepts in the current debate about future oil supply are oil field decline rates and depletion rates. These concepts are related, but not identical. This paper clarifies the definitions of these concepts, summarises the underlying theory and empirically estimates decline and depletion rates for different categories of oil field. A database of 880 post-peak fields is analysed to determine typical depletion levels, depletion rates, and decline rates. This demonstrates that the size of oil fields has a significant influence on decline and depletion rates, with generally high values for small fields and comparatively low values for larger fields. These empirical findings have important implications for oil supply forecasting.

  • 5.
    Höök, Mikael
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems.
    Dean, Fantazzini
    Moscow State University.
    André, Angelantoni
    Post Peak Living.
    Simon, Snowden
    University of Liverpool.
    Coal-to-Liquids: viability as a peak oil mitigation strategy2012In: Twenty Ninth Annual International Pittsburgh Coal Conference, 2012Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Converting coal to a liquid, commonly known as coal-to-liquids (CTL), can supply liquid fuels and has been successfully used in several countries, particularly in South Africa. However, it has not become a major contributor to the global oil supply. Increasing awareness of the scarcity of oil and rising oil prices has increased the interest in coal liquefaction. This paper surveys CTL technology, economics and environmental performance. Understanding the fundamental aspects of coal liquefaction technologies is vital for planning and policy-making since future CTL production will be integrated in a much larger global energy and liquid fuel production system.

    The economic analysis shows that many CTL studies assume conditions that are optimistic at best. In addition, the strong risk for a CTL plant to become a financial black hole is highlighted. This helps to explain why China has recently slowed down the development of its CTL program.

    The technical analysis investigates the coal consumption of CTL. Generally, a yield of between 1–2 barrels/ton coal can be achieved while the technical limit seems to be 3 barrels/ton coal. This puts a strict limit on future CTL capacity imposed by future coal production, regardless of other factors such as economic viability, emissions or environmental concern. For example, assuming that 10% of world coal production can be diverted to CTL, the contribution to the liquid fuel supply will be limited to only a few million barrels per day (Mb/d). This prevents CTL from becoming a viable mitigation plan for liquid fuel shortage on a global scale.

    However, it is still possible for individual nations to derive a significant share of their fuel supply from CTL but those nations must also have access to equally significant coal production capacity. It is unrealistic to claim that CTL provides a feasible solution to liquid fuels shortages created by peak oil. At best, it can be only a minor contributor and must be combined with other strategies to ensure future liquid fuel supply.

  • 6.
    Höök, Mikael
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems.
    Fantazzini, Dean
    Moscow School of Economics.
    Angelantoni, André
    Post Peak Living.
    Snowden, Simon
    Liverpool University.
    Hydrocarbon liquefaction: viability as a peak oil mitigation strategy2014In: Philosophical Transactions. Series A: Mathematical, physical, and engineering science, ISSN 1364-503X, E-ISSN 1471-2962, Vol. 372, no 2006, p. 20120319-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Current world capacity of hydrocarbon liquefaction is around 400,000 barrels per day (kb/d), providing a marginal share of the global liquid fuel supply. This study performs a broad review of technical, economic, environmental, and supply chains issues related to coal-to-liquids (CTL) and gas-to-liquids (GTL). We find three issues predominate. First, significant amounts of coal and gas would be required to obtain anything more than a marginal production of liquids. Second, the economics of CTL plants are clearly prohibitive, but are better for GTL. Nevertheless, large scale GTL plants still require very high upfront costs, and for three real world GTL plants out of four, the final cost has been so far approximately three times that initially budgeted. Small scale GTL holds potential for associated gas. Third, CTL and GTL both incur significant environmental impacts, ranging from increased greenhouse gas emissions (in the case of CTL) to water contamination. Environmental concerns may significantly affect growth of these projects until adequate solutions are found.

  • 7.
    Höök, Mikael
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems. Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Li, Junchen
    China University of Petroleum - Beijing.
    Johansson, Kersti
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems.
    Snowden, Simon
    University of Liverpool.
    Growth rates of global energy systems and future outlooks2012In: Natural Resources Research, ISSN 1520-7439, E-ISSN 1573-8981, Vol. 21, no 1, p. 23-41Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The world is interconnected and powered by a number of global energy systems using fossil, nuclear, or renewable energy. This study reviews historical time series of energy production and growth for various energy sources. It compiles a theoretical and empirical foundation for understanding the behaviour underlying global energy systems' growth. The most extreme growth rates are found in fossil fuels. The presence of scaling behaviour, i.e. proportionality between growth rate and size, is established. The findings are used to investigate the consistency of several long-range scenarios expecting rapid growth for future energy systems. The validity of such projections is questioned, based on past experience. Finally, it is found that even if new energy systems undergo a rapid "oil boom"-development - i.e. they mimic the most extreme historical events - their contribution to global energy supply by 2050 will be marginal.

  • 8.
    Höök, Mikael
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems.
    Tang, Xu
    China University of Petroleum - Beijing.
    Depletion of fossil fuels and anthropogenic climate change: a review2013In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 52, p. 797-809Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Future scenarios with significant anthropogenic climate change also display large increases in world production of fossil fuels, the principal CO2 emission source. Meanwhile, fossil fuel depletion has also been identified as a future challenge. This chapter reviews the connection between these two issues and concludes that limits to availability of fossil fuels will set a limit for mankind’s ability to affect the climate. However, this limit is unclear as various studies have reached quite different conclusions regarding future atmospheric CO2 concentrations caused by fossil fuel limitations.

    It is concluded that the current set of emission scenarios used by the IPCC and others is perforated by optimistic expectations on future fossil fuel production that are improbable or even unrealistic. The current situation, where climate models largely rely on emission scenarios detached from the reality of supply and its inherent problems is problematic. In fact, it may even mislead planners and politicians into making decisions that mitigate one problem but make the other one worse. It is important to understand that the fossil energy problem and the anthropogenic climate change problem are tightly connected and need to be treated as two interwoven challenges necessitating a holistic solution.

  • 9.
    Jianliang, Wang
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems. China University of Petroleum - Beijing.
    Davidsson, Simon
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems.
    Lianyong, Feng
    Chinese coal supply and future production outlooks2013In: Energy, ISSN 0360-5442, E-ISSN 1873-6785, Vol. 60, p. 204-214Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    China's energy supply is dominated by coal, making projections of future coal production in China important. Recent forecasts suggest that Chinese coal production may reach a peak in 2010–2039 but with widely differing peak production levels. The estimated URR (ultimately recoverable resources) influence these projections significantly, however, widely different URR-values were used due to poor understanding of the various Chinese coal classification schemes. To mitigate these shortcomings, a comprehensive investigation of this system and an analysis of the historical evaluation of resources and reporting issues are performed. A more plausible URR is derived, which indicates that many analysts underestimate volumes available for exploitation. Projections based on the updated URR using a modified curve-fitting model indicate that Chinese coal production could peak as early as 2024 at a maximum annual production of 4.1 Gt. By considering other potential constraints, it can be concluded that peak coal in China appears inevitable and immediate. This event can be expected to have significant impact on the Chinese economy, energy strategies and GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions reduction strategies.

  • 10.
    Johansson, S.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems.
    Limits to biofuels2013In: New Strategies for Energy Generation, Conversion and Storage, 2013, p. 01014-Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Biofuel production is dependent upon agriculture and forestry systems, and the expectations of future biofuel potential are high. A study of the global food production and biofuel production from edible crops implies that biofuel produced from edible parts of crops lead to a global deficit of food. This is rather well known, which is why there is a strong urge to develop biofuel systems that make use of residues or products from forest to eliminate competition with food production. However, biofuel from agro-residues still depend upon the crop production system, and there are many parameters to deal with in order to investigate the sustainability of biofuel production. There is a theoretical limit to how much biofuel can be achieved globally from agro-residues and this amounts to approximately one third of todays' use of fossil fuels in the transport sector. In reality this theoretical potential may be eliminated by the energy use in the biomass-conversion technologies and production systems, depending on what type of assessment method is used. By surveying existing studies on biofuel conversion the theoretical limit of biofuels from 2010 years' agricultural production was found to be either non-existent due to energy consumption in the conversion process, or up to 2-6000 TWh (biogas from residues and waste and ethanol from woody biomass) in the more optimistic cases.

  • 11.
    Junchen, Li
    et al.
    China University of Petroleum.
    Xiucheng, Dong
    China University of Petroleum.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems.
    Jian, Gao
    China University of Petroleum.
    Shiqun, Li
    Risk evaluation of technology innovation in Chinese oil and gas industry2013In: International Journal of Global Energy Issues, ISSN 0954-7118, E-ISSN 1741-5128, Vol. 36, no 1, p. 1-12Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Oiland gas industries are technology intensive and appropriate risk evaluation isnecessary. The Chinese oil and gas industry is in the development phase, thusrisk assessments and mitigation is more important than pushing technologicalinnovation. This paper compiles research of other experts in the field andevaluates innovation risk by using a multi-hierarchy grey method. The resultshows that the technology innovation risk for Chinas oil and gas industry isrelatively high. Finally, this paper proposes some suitable measures that may decreaserisk levels.

  • 12.
    Källberg, Tomas
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems.
    Karlsson, Martin
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems.
    Lagring av kyla i bergrum: Undersökning av ett nedlagt oljebergrum2012Independent thesis Advanced level (professional degree), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    This thesis considers the use of an oldrock cavern as thermal energy storage.With a large system of differentchillers a model was created to find anappropriate future system. There aremainly two trajectories to take. Eitheran installation of chillers needs to bemade or the rock cavern can be used tomeet the future demand of districtcooling in Solna, Sweden. Additionallythis thesis investigates the possibleuse of different techniques to utilizethe phase change energy of water.Simulation shows that it’s possible toutilize the phase-change energy of afluid; however it’s not economicallyfeasible due to the thermodynamiceffects on the Carnot cycle. Further weconsider the possibility of using anexisting rock cavern, earlier used asstorage for heating oil. This indicatesthat a lot of uncertainty is connectedto the use of the rock cavern, mainlydue to the complications of installingequipment inside the cavern. We concludethat the option to use the rock cavernas district cooling is thermodynamicallysuitable, although a more thoroughinvestigation of different solutions toavoid large alterations to the inside ofthe old heating oil storage should bemade.

  • 13.
    Larsson, Simon
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems.
    Fantazzini, Dean
    Moscow School of Economics.
    Davidsson, Simon
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems.
    Kullander, Sven
    Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems.
    Reviewing electricity production cost assessments2013In: Renewable & sustainable energy reviews, ISSN 1364-0321, E-ISSN 1879-0690, Vol. 30, p. 170-183Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A thorough review of twelve recent studies of production costs from different power generating technologies was conducted and a wide range in cost estimates was found. The reviewed studies show differences in their methodologies and assumptions, making the stated cost figures not directly comparable and unsuitable to be generalized to represent the costs for entire technologies. Moreover, current levelized costs of electricity methodologies focus only on the producer's costs, while additional costs viewed from a consumer perspective and on external costs with impact on society should be included if these results are to be used for planning. Although this type of electricity production cost assessments can be useful, the habit of generalizing electricity production cost figures for entire technologies is problematic. Cost escalations tend to occur rapidly with time, the impact of economies of scale is significant, costs are in many cases site-specific, and country-specific circumstances affect production costs. Assumptions on the cost-influencing factors such as discount rates, fuel prices and heat credits fluctuate considerably and have a significant impact on production cost results. Electricity production costs assessments similar to the studies reviewed in this work disregard many important cost factors, making them inadequate for decision and policy making, and should only be used to provide rough ballpark estimates with respect to a given system boundary. Caution when using electricity production cost estimates are recommended, and further studies investigating cost under different circumstances, both for producers and society as a whole are called for. Also, policy makers should be aware of the potentially widely different results coming from electricity production cost estimates under different assumptions.

  • 14.
    Sällh, David
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems.
    Future North Sea oil production and its implications for Swedish oil supply regarding the transport sector: -A study on energy security and sustainability of future strategic resources2012Independent thesis Advanced level (professional degree), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    Historically, it has been negative to be dependent on only one resource, in the current situation this resource represents oil. The oil dependence is primarily in the transport sector. From a Swedish perspective oil is an energy resource mainly used in the transport sector. Much of the oil that Sweden imports has its origin in the North Sea. The oil production in the North Sea has however begun to decline, which highlights that oil is a finite resource. This also means that Sweden has to start importing oil from other countries, which may affect the Swedish energy security as these countries may be geographical further away and also be more political instable. It also implies that a transition from oil to renewable fuel within the transport sector is essential.

    The aim of this thesis is to study how Swedish energy security is affected by the oil production volumes in The North Sea. The thesis is divided into three parts. The first part consists of updating historical data from recent analyses on North Sea oil production (i.e. Höök and Aleklett, 2008 and Höök et al., 2009a), and also create updated forecasts of future oil production for both Denmark and Norway. The second part investigates how production declines in the North Sea affect the Swedish oil imports. The final section examines how a shift to renewable fuels within the transport sector is possible, with a focus on natural resources. Finally some recommendations are presented on how Sweden could increase their energy security regarding the transport sector by introducing renewable fuels.

  • 15.
    Söderberg, Anna-Lotta
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems.
    Faktorer som påverkar vindkraftsutbyggnaden2012Independent thesis Advanced level (professional degree), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    Wind power is expanding rapidly in Sweden. Increasing amounts of wind power sets higher requirements on balancing power and grid expansions and would affect the whole Swedish electricity system. The aim of this report is to examine the factors affecting the wind power expansion in Sweden. How many wind power plants projects will obtain building permissions and what costs and revenues can be expected? How much balancing power will be required and does a changing geographical distribution of the wind power plants reduce the need of balancing power?

    A survey of the county board’s official applications has been made and out of all the applications, corresponding to 80 TWh produced per year, about half of the applications are expected to obtain a permit with a major portion of them located in the north of Sweden.

    Especially older wind power plants, deriving revenue from Nord pool, find themselves today in a complicated financial situation. However new wind power plants with favorable wind conditions and with revenues from fixed prices are likely to be more commercially viable and less dependent on electricity certificates.

    The power production can be expected to even out with a greater geographical dispersion and the balancing power requirement can be estimated to 60-80 % of the totally installed wind power. During short periods, of the order of hours, the power gain or loss is usually less than 10% but during longer periods, of the order of day, the wind power can in extreme cases experience losses and gains in power up to 70 % of the installed capacity. 

  • 16. Tang, Xu
    et al.
    Snowden, Simon
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems.
    Analysis of energy embodied in the international trade of UK2013In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 57, p. 418-428Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Interest in the role embodied energy plays in international trade and its subsequent impact on energy security has grown. As a developed nation, the UK's economic structure has changed from that of a primary producer to that of a primary consumer. Although the UK's energy consumption appears to have peaked, it imports a lot of energy embodied in international trade alongside the more obvious direct energy imports. The UK has seen increasing dependency on imported fossil energy since the UK became a net energy importer in 2005. In this paper an energy input-output model is established to calculate not only the amount of fossil energy embodied in UK's imports and exports, but also the sector and country distributions of those embodied fossil energy. The research results suggest the following: UK's embodied fossil energy imports have exceeded embodied fossil energy exports every year since 1997, UK embodied energy imports through the so-called 'Made in China' phenomena are the largest accounting for 43% of total net fossil energy imports. If net embodied fossil energy imports are considered, the gap between energy consumption and production in UK is much larger than commonly perceived, with subsequent implications to the UK's energy security.

  • 17.
    Tang, Xu
    et al.
    China University of Petroleum.
    Zhang, Baoshang
    China University of Petroleum.
    Feng, Lianyong
    China University of Petroleum.
    Snowden, Simon
    University of Liverpool.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems.
    Net oil exports embodied in China’s international trade: An input-output analysis2012In: Energy, ISSN 0360-5442, E-ISSN 1873-6785, Vol. 48, no 1, p. 464-471Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    As the world’s second largest oil importer, China has been one of the important factors which affect the global oil market. In recent years, China has attained great international trade surplus through exporting a large number of “Made in China” products even during the global economic crisis. Due to direct and indirect effects in production chain, each "Made in China" product contains oil directly or indirectly. China is exporting much oil through “Made in China” products, which is not often considered even within China. An input-output model is established to calculate oil embodied in the international trade of China. The research results suggest the following: China’s net oil exports embodied in the international trade were 87.02 million tonnes in 2007; manufacture of communication equipment, computers and other electronic equipment is the largest sector to export embodied oil; United States, China Hong Kong SAR and Netherlands are the top three countries and regions which benefit most from the embodied oil in “Made in China” products. China’s adjusted degree of dependence on foreign oil is 24.9% in 2007, and 38.4% in 2011 if net oil exports embodied in international trade are considered.

  • 18.
    Vikström, Hanna
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems.
    Davidsson, Simon
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems.
    Lithium availability and future production outlooks2013In: Applied Energy, ISSN 0306-2619, E-ISSN 1872-9118, Vol. 110, no 10, p. 252-266Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Lithium is a highly interesting metal, in part due to the increasing interest in lithium-ion batteries. Several recent studies have used different methods to estimate whether the lithium production can meet an increasing demand, especially from the transport sector, where lithium-ion batteries are the most likely technology for electric cars. The reserve and resource estimates of lithium vary greatly between different studies and the question whether the annual production rates of lithium can meet a growing demand is seldom adequately explained. This study presents a review and compilation of recent estimates of quantities of lithium available for exploitation and discusses the uncertainty and differences between these estimates. Also, mathematical curve fitting models are used to estimate possible future annual production rates. This estimation of possible production rates are compared to a potential increased demand of lithium if the International Energy Agency’s Blue Map Scenarios are fulfilled regarding electrification of the car fleet. We find that the availability of lithium could in fact be a problem for fulfilling this scenario if lithium-ion batteries are to be used. This indicates that other battery technologies might have to be implemented for enabling an electrification of road transports.

  • 19.
    Walan, Petter
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems.
    Modeling of Peak Phosphorus: A Study of Bottlenecks and Implications for Future Production2013Independent thesis Advanced level (professional degree), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    Today's modern agriculture is totally dependent on phosphorus to sustain their large yields. Several studies have recently expressed a concern for a future phosphorus deficiency. These studies are based on data for estimated reserves which have been increased with more than a fourfold since 2010. Some argue that these concerns are unfounded, despite the fact that only Morocco account for the bulk of these new reserves. This report provides new forecast for the world phosphorus production based on the new available reserve data. These forecasts are using bell shaped curve models to examine how individual countries' future production of phosphate rock affects a global production peak. Estimates of the size of several reserves are

    highly uncertain and it is therefore difficult to make an accurate forecast of future phosphorus extraction.

    Despite this uncertainty, a global production peak is likely to occur within this century. The global production will depend largely on China and Morocco's production as they hold a large share of the reserves and the current production. China's production will probably peak in 10-20 years at current production trend. It is uncertain if Morocco can increase production enough to replace China's production in the future. It is not likely that Morocco will be able to produce as much as would be required to meet the highest scenarios. This is mainly due to a number of bottlenecks in production such as water scarcity, increasing proportion of impurities and a decreasing concentration of phosphorus in the phosphate rock.

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