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There is a global call for proactive drought risk management, stressing the need to further our understanding of the systemic nature of drought risk. Proactive drought risk management requires an understanding of not only the drought hazard itself, but also the underlying vulnerabilities in sociohydrological systems. As a result, drought vulnerability assessments are increasingly being conducted across the globe. However, drought vulnerability is complex and shaped by the social, ecological, and hydroclimatic context. Thus, understanding how vulnerability is manifested depending on regional, sectoral, or societal differences is crucial. Therefore, here we present an assessment of the practical relevance and relative impact of various drought vulnerability factors for water-dependent sectors and societies in forested cold climates. The analysis was based on the results of an online survey conducted in Sweden, targeting stakeholders from seven water-dependent sectors, working in authorities, private and public enterprises, NGOs, and trade associations. Respondents were asked to rate a comprehensive list of vulnerability factors, connected to sectoral and societal vulnerability as well as governance, based on their perceived impact on drought risk in their sector as well as for society as a whole. Results showed that the relevance and impact of individual vulnerability factors differed across sectors, with the forestry sector especially standing out compared to other sectors. Furthermore, the results indicate regional differences in societal vulnerability factors. The substantial list of vulnerability factors found to be relevant by the respondents demonstrates the complex nature of drought risk, as well as the importance of using caution when selecting generic vulnerability factors for applied vulnerability assessments. Furthermore, the results provide a comprehensive guide to both sectoral and societal drought vulnerability in sociohydrological systems located in forested cold climates.

The European continent has experienced several large-scale drought events in recent years, and climate projections suggest an increasing drought risk in many parts of the world. As droughts can have large impacts on socio-hydrological systems, analyzing drought risk is an important part of proactive drought risk management and disaster risk reduction. Drought risk can be expressed as a product of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, where vulnerability is highly contextual and complex. As droughts can affect all parts of the hydrological system, from precipitation and soil moisture to groundwater and surface water reservoirs, drought vulnerability differs depending on what part of the system is studied. Building on previous results from a survey analyzing drought vulnerability across seven water-dependent sectors, this paper explores how vulnerability factors vary based on sectors' dependency on blue water (surface and subsurface freshwater) or green water (soil moisture) in mid- and high-latitude regions. The findings reveal that drought vulnerability differs based on water type dependency, especially concerning water supply and species characteristics. Perceptions of vulnerability factors vary in number, category, and overall ranking, highlighting the importance of considering water dependency when choosing vulnerability factors for drought risk assessments and to clearly define the drought hazard types involved.

The 2022 European drought has underscored critical deficiencies in European water management. This paper explores these shortcomings and suggests a way forward for European drought risk management. Data for this study was gathered through a continent-wide survey of water managers involved in this event. The survey collected 481 responses from 30 European countries and is comprised of 19 questions concerning sectorial impact in the regions of the responders and drought risk management practices of their organizations. Information from the survey is enriched with climate-related information to offer a comprehensive overview of drought risk management in Europe. Our research focuses on four key aspects: the increasing risk of drought, its spatial and temporal impacts, current drought risk management approaches, and the evolution of drought risk management across the continent. Our findings reveal a consensus on the growing risk of drought, which is confounded by the rising frequency and intensity of droughts. While the 2022 event affected most of the continent, our findings show significant regional disparities in drought risk management capacity among the various countries. Our analysis indicates that current drought risk management measures often rely on short-term operational concerns, particularly in agriculture-dominated economies, leading to potentially maladaptive practices. An overall positive trend in drought risk management, with organizations showing increased awareness and preparedness, indicates how this crisis can be the ideal moment to mainstream European-wide drought risk management. Consequently, we advocate for a European Drought Directive, to harmonize and enforce drought risk management policies across the continent. This directive should promote a systemic, integrated, and long-term risk management perspective. The directive should also set clear guidelines for drought risk management at the national level and for cross-boundary drought collaboration.

In a changing climate, drought risk and vulnerability assessments are becoming increasingly important. Following the global call for proactive drought risk management, drought vulnerability assessments are progressively taking their stage in the drought research community. As the manifestation of drought vulnerability is dependent on the social, ecological, and hydroclimatic context in which it occurs, identifying vulnerability factors relevant for specific climatological and ecological regions may improve the quality of vulnerability assessments. Meanwhile, a holistic overview of factors affecting vulnerability in polar and cold climates is currently lacking. These regions are home to large socio-hydrological systems including urban areas, energy systems, agricultural practices, and the boreal forest. By conducting an interdisciplinary systematic literature review, the manifestation and conceptualization of drought vulnerability were identified for forested ecoregions in the Köppen–Geiger D and E climates. Vulnerability factors, as described by several scientific disciplines, were identified and combined into a conceptual framework for drought vulnerability in the study region. The results demonstrate the wide range of conceptualizations that exist for assessing drought vulnerability, and the thematic differences between sectors such as forestry, water supply, and agriculture. The conceptual framework presented herein adopts a novel approach, categorizing vulnerability factors by their location in a socio-hydrological system, and their relation to blue or green water sources. This allowed for identification of systemic vulnerability patterns, providing new insights into regional differences in drought vulnerability and a base for stakeholders performing proactive drought risk assessments in the study region.

Droughts in Europe are becoming increasingly frequent and severe, with the 2022 drought surpassing previous records and causing widespread socio-economic impacts. This study employs a Europe-wide survey that integrates data from 481 respondents from 30 European countries, involved in the management of the 2022 European drought, together with hydroclimatic data (i.e., Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index; SPEI), to provide a holistic assessment of the effect of drought preparedness on response effectiveness and timeliness during the 2022 drought through statistical methods. It specifically assesses the role of forecasting systems and Drought Management Plans (DMPs) in improving preparedness and in facilitating more effective and timely responses. Additionally, the study investigates how drought management practices and awareness have evolved as a consequence of the 2018 European drought and how recent experiences shape water managers’ perceptions. The findings emphasize the urgent need for a standardized, continent-wide drought risk management coordination to address the multifaceted nature of drought risk by integrating climatic and societal factors, and advocates for a Drought Directive as a means to achieve it. This research aims to inform policy development towards sustainable and holistic drought risk management, highlighting the crucial roles of preparedness, awareness, and adaptive strategies in mitigating future drought impacts.

There is a global call for proactive drought risk management, stressing the need to further our understanding of the systemic nature of drought risk. Proactive drought risk management requires not only an understanding of the drought hazard itself, but also of the underlying vulnerabilities in socio-hydrological systems. As a result, drought vulnerability assessments are increasingly conducted across the globe. However, drought vulnerability is complex and shaped by the social, ecological and hydroclimatic context. Thus, understanding how vulnerability is manifested depending on regional, sectoral or societal differences is crucial. Yet, a detailed overview of drought vulnerability factors relevant for socio-hydrological systems in specific climate regions and ecozones, is currently lacking. Therefore, a first ever attempt was made to identify user-validated drought vulnerability factors, relevant for water-dependent sectors and societies in forested cold climates. User-validation was performed through an online survey conducted in Sweden, Northern Europe, targeting stakeholders from seven water dependent sectors, working in authorities, private and public enterprises, NGOs and trade associations. Respondents were asked to rate a comprehensive list of vulnerability factors, connected to sectoral and societal vulnerability as well as governance, based on their impact on drought risk in their sector as well as for society as a whole. The study successfully identified several relevant drought vulnerability factors for the climate region, as well as the relative impact of each vulnerability factor on drought risk in sectors as well as society. Results showed that the relevance and impact of individual vulnerability factors differed for different sectors, where the forestry sector especially stands out compared to other sectors. Furthermore, the results indicate regional differences in societal vulnerability factors. The substantial list of vulnerability factors found to be relevant by the respondents, demonstrate the complex nature of drought risk, as well as the importance of adopting cautiousness when selecting generic vulnerability factors for applied vulnerability assessments. Furthermore, the results provide a comprehensive guide to both sectoral and societal drought vulnerability in socio-hydrological systems located in forested cold climates.

The future risk for droughts and water shortages calls for substantial efforts by authorities to adapt at local levels. Understanding their perception of drought hazards, risk and vulnerability can help to identify drivers of and barriers to drought risk planning and management in a changing climate at the local level. This paper presents a novel interdisciplinary drought case study in Sweden that integrates soft data from a nationwide survey among more than 100 local practitioners and hard data based on hydrological measurements to provide a holistic assessment of the links between drought severity and the perceived levels of drought severity, impacts, preparedness, and management for two consecutive drought events. The paper highlights challenges for drought risk planning and management in a changing climate at the local level and elaborates on how improved understanding of local practitioners to plan for climate change adaptation can be achieved.

Droughts can affect a multitude of public and private sectors, with impacts developing slowly over time. While droughts are traditionally quantified in relation to the hydrological components of the water cycle that they affect, this manuscript demonstrates a novel approach to assess future drought conditions through the lens of the water-energy-food-ecosystem (WEFE) nexus concept. To this end, a set of standardized drought indices specifically designed to represent different nexus sectors across 50 catchments in Sweden was computed based on an ensemble of past and future climate model simulations. Different patterns in the response of the four nexus sectors water, energy, food and ecosystem services to future climate change emerged, with different response times and drought durations across the sectors. These results offer new insights into the propagation of drought through the WEFE nexus in cold climates. They further suggest that future drought projections can be better geared towards decision makers by basing them on standardized drought indices that were specifically tailored to represent particular nexus sectors.