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The Water-Energy-Food (WEF) Nexus is high-dimensional and sensitive to control inputs, such as policy changes. Constructing Nexus models to predict policy impacts is time consuming, and the temporal resolution of the available data is often coarse, limiting the use of many data-driven methods. We investigated the applicability Dynamic Mode Decomposition with control (DMDc) as a method of performing policy impact predictions. A high-resolution System Dynamics Model (SDM) of the Nexus in Latvia was used to simulate the impacts of different policies on the Nexus at annual resolution between 2000 and 2050 (m = 50 snapshots). This simulated data was used to assess how well DMDc could reconstruct policy impacts based on data alone. To obtain numerically stable DMDc models with just 50 snapshots, linear interpolation was used to artificially inflate the data to monthly resolution (m = 600). Three policies based on the SDM were tested for two different data sizes,small (n = 15 variables) and large (n = 100). With 5–15 control-policy variables specified, DMDc was able to reconstruct the impacts in both the small and large data sets for two out of the three policies with moderate accuracy (with a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency, NSE > 0.4). DMDc was able to capture the general trends in the data but not interannual variability. These findings suggests that DMDc shows promise for impact assessments, but policy variables have to be carefully selected. Improvements to the DMDc pipeline that could improve performance and interpretability are discussed, including data pre-processing steps, architectural changes, and modelconstraints informed by expert- or stakeholder opinion.

Attaining resource security in the water, energy, food, and ecosystem (WEFE) sectors, the WEFE nexus, is paramount. This necessitates the use of quantitative modelling, which presents many challenges, as this is a complex system acting at the intersection of the physical- and social sciences. However, as WEFE data is becoming more widely available, data-driven methods of modelling this system are becoming increasingly viable. Here, we discuss two main problems in WEFE nexus modelling: system identification and control. System identification uses Machine Learning algorithms to obtain dynamical models from data and have shown promise in many disciplines with similar characteristics as the nexus. Meanwhile, control algorithms manipulate a system to achieve objectives and are becoming instrumental in shaping nexus policy. Despite the promise of these algorithms, data-driven modelling is a vast and daunting field, and so here we provide an introductory overview of this field, with emphasis on nexus applications.

Droughts can affect a multitude of public and private sectors, with impacts developing slowly over time. While droughts are traditionally quantified in relation to the hydrological components of the water cycle that they affect, this manuscript demonstrates a novel approach to assess future drought conditions through the lens of the water-energy-food-ecosystem (WEFE) nexus concept. To this end, a set of standardized drought indices specifically designed to represent different nexus sectors across 50 catchments in Sweden was computed based on an ensemble of past and future climate model simulations. Different patterns in the response of the four nexus sectors water, energy, food and ecosystem services to future climate change emerged, with different response times and drought durations across the sectors. These results offer new insights into the propagation of drought through the WEFE nexus in cold climates. They further suggest that future drought projections can be better geared towards decision makers by basing them on standardized drought indices that were specifically tailored to represent particular nexus sectors.

Droughts can have far-reaching and devastating effects on all sectors of society and ecology and future changes to drought and flood patterns are uncertain. This uncertainty has led to a lax response from local officials in dealing with mitigation and adaptation, particularly in Sweden. As such, this study focused on providing more localized estimates of future drought trends in Sweden so that policy makers can make informed decisions. To assess impacts to different sectors, the results from ten different climate model simulations between 1961-2100 under different emission scenarios, along with hydrological model simulations, were evaluated throughout Sweden for 50 different catchments using a variety of meteorological and hydrological drought indices.

We projected a consistent and significant increase in drought severity, duration, and intensity over the course of the 21st century in many parts of Sweden under both moderate and high emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). However, models were in less agreement on the sign of change of drought frequency. These results are highly consistent with more regional pan-European studies on drought, but also show significant departures due to local catchment-specific variability in some forms of drought. Local impacts to agriculture, energy production, water supply, public health, and fresh-water ecosystems are briefly discussed. These results are likely underestimates of future drought due to biases in the models. Improved formulations of drought indices along with a more robust statistical handling of the model output could reduce these uncertainties.

Torka kan ha förödande effekter på samhälle och ekosystem. På grund av ökande nederbörder och temperaturer är förändringar i torka och översvämningar osäkra. Dessa osäkerheter har lett till slappa åtgärder från politiker och lokala tjänstemän vars syfte är att anpassa samhället inför torka och översvämningar. I och med detta fokuserade denna studie på att ge mer lokaliserade uppskattningar av framtida torktrender i Sverige så att beslutsfattare kan fatta välgrundade beslut. För detta utvärderades resultat från olika klimatmodeller och simuleringar av avrinnesområden mellan 1961-2100 under olika utsläppsscenarier. Dessa utfördes i hela Sverige för 50 olika avrinningsområden för att bedöma effekterna av framtida torka på olika samhällsfunktioner, så som jordbruk, energiproduktion, vattenförsörjning, folkhälsa, och ekosystem.

De flesta modellerna visade en överensstämmande ökning av torkans magnitud, varaktighet och intensitet under 2007-2100 i många delar av Sverige under både måttliga och höga utsläppsscenarier. Modellerna var dock mindre överens om förändring av torkfrekvensen. Dessa resultat överensstämmer mycket väl med mer regionala studier av Europa men visar också tydliga skillnader på grund av lokal variation, vilket har olika effekter på olika samhällsfunktioner. Det visade sig även att klimatmodellerna och våra metoder hade en tendens att överskatta bland annat nederbörd, vilket innebär att dessa resultat sannolikt är underskattningar av framtida torka.

Rivers around the world are increasingly regulated by dams and reservoirs. As a result, hydrological drought conditions are more and more characterised by a complex anthropogenic dimension. Understanding how human activities influence the propagation of drought is particularly crucial in the face of climatic and societal changes. In this work, we explore how large dams change the way in which atmospheric water deficit propagates through river basins and result (or not) in hydrological drought. To this end, we analysed geocoded records of 15 large dams in five countries with weather and streamflow observations. Our study reveals a heterogeneous pattern of dam-induced drought propagation shifts. A slight majority of the dams reduced the duration of hydrological drought (i.e. below-normal river flows) compared to the unregulated state. However, most dams contributed to an increased streamflow deficit, both in terms of the median deficit per event and the total deficit over a 10-year period. Our findings also highlight the presence of dams that severely exacerbated hydrological drought conditions downstream, as indicated by more frequent, longer, and more intense drought events. This study significantly contributes to the existing literature showing that river regulation through dams is by no means a panacea for reducing drought risk.