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Composite scale data consists of numerous categorical questions/items that are often summed as a total score and are commonly utilized as primary endpoints in clinical trials. These endpoints are conceptually discrete and constrained by nature. Item response theory (IRT) is a powerful approach for detecting drug effects in composite scale data from clinical trials, but estimating all parameters requires a large sample size and all item information, which may not be available. Therefore, total score models are often utilized. The most popular total score models are continuous variable (CV) models, but this strategy establishes assumptions that go against the integer nature, and typically also the bounded nature, of data. Bounded integer (BI) and Coarsened grid (CG) models respect the nature of the data. However, their power to detect drug effects has not been as thoroughly studied in clinical trials. When an IRT model is accessible, IRT-informed models (I-BI and I-CV) are promising methods in which the mean and variability of the total score at any position are extracted from the existing IRT model. In this study, total score data were simulated from the MDS-UPDRS motor subscale. Then, the power, type 1 error, and treatment effect bias of six total score models for detecting drug effects in clinical trials were explored. Further, it was investigated how the power, type 1 of error, and treatment effect bias for the I-BI and I-CV models were affected by mis-specified item information from the IRT model. The I-BI model demonstrated the highest statistical power, maintained an acceptable Type I error rate, and exhibited minimal bias, approaching zero. Following that, the I-CV, BI, and CG with Czado transformation (CG_Czado) models provided the maximum power. However, the CG_Czado model had inflated type 1 error under low sample size scenarios in each arm of clinical trials. The CG model among total score models displayed the lowest power and the most inflated type 1 error. Therefore, the results favor the I-BI model when an IRT model is available; otherwise, the BI model.

Background: Tachycardia associated with active tuberculosis (TB) often diminishes when patients recover from TB. Elevated heart rate (HR) may lead to suboptimal correction, complicating the assessment of QT prolongation when using standard correction factors (CFs), such as Fridericia's formula (QTcF). Olliaro has proposed a CF for QT interval correction in pretreatment TB patients. However, the QT-HR correlation changes as HR decreases during treatment, indicating the need for time-varying correction.

Methods: We developed an HR model to capture the HR normalisation during successful treatment. Subsequently, a time-varying CF was constructed using the estimated HR change rate. The performance of CFs to make corrected QT (QTc) independent from HR was evaluated by linear regression analyses of QTc versus HR within defined time bins.

Results: The final HR model included asymptotic change in HR attributed to time on treatment, circadian rhythm cycles, M2 (bedaquiline-metabolite) concentration, and patient covariates. The time-varying CF decreased from 0.4081 to 0.33, with a half-life of 7.74 weeks. The slope (QTc/HR vs. Time) derived from the time-varying correction was not significantly different from 0 (95% CI -0.003 to 0.002), and the intercept was not significantly different from 0 (95% CI -0.089 to 0.006), demonstrating successful QT correction from pretreatment to the end of treatment.

Conclusion: The time-varying CF effectively captures the dynamic QT-HR relationship during TB treatment, reducing the risk of misdiagnosing QT prolongation or unnecessary discontinuation of treatment. By addressing underestimation and overestimation issues in QT interval assessment, this method enhances drug evaluation in clinical trials and supports improved treatment decisions for TB patients. (c) 2025 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ )

In the decades preceding 1970s, there were considerable advances in theoretical descriptions of pharmacokinetics, drug action, and the time-course of dose-concentration-response relations. However, delayed drug effects and how to analyze data across individuals still offered a considerable challenge. Sheiner et al., through the formulation of the effect-compartment model, the utilization of nonlinear mixed effects models, and simultaneous PKPD analysis, offered solutions to these issues that still today are considered state-of-the-art.

Approximately 15% of patients suspected of having Parkinson's disease (PD) present dopamine active transporter (DaT) scans without evidence of dopaminergic deficits (SWEDD), most of which will never develop PD. Leveraging Movement Disorders Society Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (MDS-UPDRS) scores from the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative, three different models of varying complexity, (total score, item response theory (IRT) and artificial neural network (ANN)) were evaluated to determine their ability to differentiate between PD and SWEDDs. Each of the models provided as output a predicted probability of having PD (P_DeNoPD). Both the IRT and ANN methods performed well as classifiers; ROC AUC > 80%, sensitivity > 93%, and precision ~90% when assuming a probability cutoff of P_DeNoPD ≥ 50%. Specificity was 43% and 38% for IRT and ANN respectively. Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) was also evaluated as a metric to address potential bias of majority positive class. At all cutoffs at or above 50%, the IRT and ANN model performed similarly and achieved a MCC of at least 0.3, indicating at least a moderate positive relationship for classifier performance. In contrast, the total score model was a poor classifier, for all metrics and cutoffs. Using item-level data the proposed methodologies differentiated PD patients from SWEDDs with a degree of sensitivity and specificity that may compete with clinical examination and could aid in selecting DaTscan candidates. The choice of cutoff criteria, quality metric, and classifier model are contingent upon specific clinical needs.

Population pharmacokinetic (PK) models are widely used to inform drug development by pharmaceutical companies and facilitate drug evaluation by regulatory agencies. Developing a population PK model is a multi-step, challenging, and time-consuming process involving iterative manual model fitting and evaluation. A tool for fully automatic model development (AMD) of common population PK models is presented here. The AMD tool is implemented in Pharmpy, a versatile open-source library for pharmacometrics. It consists of different modules responsible for developing the different components of population PK models, including the structural model, the inter-individual variability (IIV) model, the inter-occasional variability (IOV) model, the residual unexplained variability (RUV) model, the covariate model, and the allometry model. The AMD tool was evaluated using 10 real PK datasets involving the structural, IIV, and RUV modules in three sequences. The different sequences yielded generally consistent structural models; however, there were variations in the results of the IIV and RUV models. The final models of the AMD tool showed lower Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) values and similar visual predictive check plots compared with the available published models, indicating reasonable quality, in addition to reasonable run time. A similar conclusion was also drawn in a simulation study. The developed AMD tool serves as a promising tool for fast and fully automatic population PK model building with the potential to facilitate the use of modeling and simulation in drug development.

Background Studying long-term treatment outcomes of TB is time-consuming and impractical. Early and reliable biomarkers reflecting treatment response and capable of predicting long-term outcomes are urgently needed.Objectives To develop a pharmacometric multistate model to evaluate the link between potential predictors and long-term outcomes.Methods Data were obtained from two Phase II clinical trials (TMC207-C208 and TMC207-C209) with bedaquiline on top of a multidrug background regimen. Patients were typically followed throughout a 24 week investigational treatment period plus a 96 week follow-up period. A five-state multistate model (active TB, converted, recurrent TB, dropout, and death) was developed to describe observed transitions. Evaluated predictors included patient characteristics, baseline TB disease severity and on-treatment biomarkers.Results A fast bacterial clearance in the first 2 weeks and low TB bacterial burden at baseline increased probability to achieve conversion, whereas patients with XDR-TB were less likely to reach conversion. Higher estimated mycobacterial load at the end of 24 week treatment increased the probability of recurrence. At 120 weeks, the model predicted 55% (95% prediction interval, 50%-60%), 6.5% (4.2%-9.0%) and 7.5% (5.2%-10%) of patients in converted, recurrent TB and death states, respectively. Simulations predicted a substantial increase of recurrence after 24 weeks in patients with slow bacterial clearance regardless of baseline bacterial burden.Conclusions The developed multistate model successfully described TB treatment outcomes. The multistate modelling framework enables prediction of several outcomes simultaneously, and allows mechanistically sound investigation of novel promising predictors. This may help support future biomarker evaluation, clinical trial design and analysis.

Biological therapies may act as immunogenic triggers leading to the formation of anti-drug antibodies (ADAs). Population pharmacokinetic (PK) models can be used to characterize the relationship between ADA and drug disposition but often rely on the ADA bioassay results, which may not be sufficiently sensitive to inform on this characterization.In this work, a methodology that could help to further elucidate the underlying ADA production and impact on the drug disposition was explored. A mixed hidden-Markov model (MHMM) was developed to characterize the underlying (hidden) formation of ADA against the biologic, using certolizumab pegol (CZP), as a test drug. CZP is a PEGylated Fc free TNF-inhibitor used in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis and other chronic inflammatory diseases.The bivariate MHMM used information from plasma drug concentrations and ADA measurements, from six clinical studies (n = 845), that were correlated through a bivariate Gaussian function to infer about two hidden states; production and no-production of ADA influencing PK. Estimation of inter-individual variability was not supported in this case. Parameters associated with the observed part of the model were reasonably well estimated while parameters associated with the hidden part were less precise. Individual state sequences obtained using a Viterbi algorithm suggested that the model was able to determine the start of ADA production for each individual, being a more assay-independent methodology than traditional population PK. The model serves as a basis for identification of covariates influencing the ADA formation, and thus has the potential to identify aspects that minimize its impact on PK and/or efficacy.

Background: Cost-utility analyses (CUAs) increasingly use models to predict long-term outcomes and translate trial data to real-world settings. Model structure uncertainty affects these predictions. This study compares pharmacometric against traditional pharmacoeconomic model evaluations for CUAs of sunitinib in gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST).

Methods: A two-arm trial comparing sunitinib 37.5 mg daily with no treatment was simulated using a pharmacometric-based pharmacoeconomic model framework. Overall, four existing models [time-to-event (TTE) and Markov models] were re-estimated to the survival data and linked to logistic regression models describing the toxicity data [neutropenia, thrombocytopenia, hypertension, fatigue, and hand-foot syndrome (HFS)] to create traditional pharmacoeconomic model frameworks. All five frameworks were used to simulate clinical outcomes and sunitinib treatment costs, including a therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) scenario.

Results: The pharmacometric model framework predicted that sunitinib treatment costs an additional 142,756 euros per quality adjusted life year (QALY) compared with no treatment, with deviations - 21.2% (discrete Markov), - 15.1% (continuous Markov), + 7.2% (TTE Weibull), and + 39.6% (TTE exponential) from the traditional model frameworks. The pharmacometric framework captured the change in toxicity over treatment cycles (e.g., increased HFS incidence until cycle 4 with a decrease thereafter), a pattern not observed in the pharmacoeconomic frameworks (e.g., stable HFS incidence over all treatment cycles). Furthermore, the pharmacoeconomic frameworks excessively forecasted the percentage of patients encountering subtherapeutic concentrations of sunitinib over the course of time (pharmacoeconomic: 24.6% at cycle 2 to 98.7% at cycle 16, versus pharmacometric: 13.7% at cycle 2 to 34.1% at cycle 16).

Conclusions: Model structure significantly influences CUA predictions. The pharmacometric-based model framework more closely represented real-world toxicity trends and drug exposure changes. The relevance of these findings depends on the specific question a CUA seeks to address.

There are examples in the literature demonstrating different approaches to defining the item characteristic functions (ICF) and characterizing the latent variable time-course within a pharmacometrics item response theory (IRT) framework. One such method estimates both the ICF and latent variable time-course simultaneously, and another method establishes the ICF first then models the latent variable directly. To date, a direct comparison of the "simultaneous" and "sequential" methodologies described in this work has not yet been systematically investigated. Item parameters from a graded response IRT model developed from Parkinson's Progression Marker Initiative (PPMI) study data were used as simulation parameters. Each method was evaluated under the following conditions: (i) with and without drug effect and (ii) slow progression rate with smaller sample size and rapid progression rate with larger sample size. Overall, the methods performed similarly, with low bias and good precision for key parameters and hypothesis testing for drug effect. The ICF parameters were well determined when the model was correctly specified, with an increase in precision in the scenario with rapid progression. In terms of drug effect, both methods had large estimation bias for the slow progression rate; however, this bias can be considered small relative to overall progression rate. Both methods demonstrated type 1 error control and similar discrimination between model with and without drug effect. The simultaneous method was slightly more precise than the sequential method while the sequential method was more robust towards longitudinal model misspecification and offers practical advantages in model building.

Modeling the relationships between covariates and pharmacometric model parameters is a central feature of pharmacometric analyses. The information obtained from covariate modeling may be used for dose selection, dose individualization, or the planning of clinical studies in different population subgroups. The pharmacometric literature has amassed a diverse, complex, and evolving collection of methodologies and interpretive guidance related to covariate modeling. With the number and complexity of technologies increasing, a need for an overview of the state of the art has emerged. In this article the International Society of Pharmacometrics (ISoP) Standards and Best Practices Committee presents perspectives on best practices for planning, executing, reporting, and interpreting covariate analyses to guide pharmacometrics decision making in academic, industry, and regulatory settings.