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 In the context of Sweden’s digital transformation strategy, ensuring the availability of digital specialist competence has been identified as a critical challenge for innovation and economic growth. Current reports and analyses, including those by the OECD, highlight a growing gap between demand and supply in advanced digital skills, posing a bottleneck for industrial and technological development. To address this, the Swedish government has tasked agencies and research groups with formulating strategies for sustainable competence provision. This paper presents a future-oriented analysis aimed at outlining plausible development trajectories for digital specialist competence in Sweden up to 2035.

Building on a comprehensive SWOT analysis, trend forecasting, and policy reviews, this study delineates eight distinct future scenarios that explore potential pathways for competence provision. These range from a continuation of the status quo to more transformative developments such as industry-driven initiatives, increased individual responsibility, global talent mobility, and a more flexible and responsive higher education system. Some scenarios envision a diversification of the educational landscape, including non-traditional learning environments, while others highlight systemic change through digital transformation and extensive institutional restructuring.

Each scenario is analyzed in relation to key drivers such as education policy, technological advancements, labor market shifts, and international competitiveness. The study underscores that achieving sustainable digital competence provision requires more than isolated initiatives; rather, it necessitates a systemic approach integrating education, industry, and policy frameworks. Gender equality, sustainability, and lifelong learning emerge as crucial dimensions for ensuring inclusivity and adaptability in digital competence strategies.

The full paper will further elaborate on these scenarios and assess the actual developments a few years after the initial projections, providing a comparative analysis of anticipated versus realized progress in Sweden’s digital competence landscape. By doing so, it aims to inform policymakers, educators, and industry stakeholders on effective strategies for aligning competence development with the rapidly evolving digital ecosystem.