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BACKGROUND In patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) the risk of ischemic stroke is central to recommendations for stroke-prevention treatment. OBJECTIVES The authors evaluated the biomarker-based Age, Biomarkers, Clinical history (ABC)-AF-stroke risk score and developed a modified ABC-AF-istroke risk score for prediction of respectively total and ischemic stroke in patients with AF.

METHODS In 26,452 patients with AF assigned to direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) or warfarin, information on age, clinical history of stroke, and levels of N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide and troponin were used for calculation of the ABC-AF-stroke score and the modified ABC-AF-istroke score.

RESULTS During follow-up, there were 756 cases with stroke or systemic embolism (SEE) including 534 with ischemic stroke/SEE. The discrimination of total stroke/SEE was superior for the ABC-AF-stroke score, C-index (0.667 [95% CI: 0.648-0.687]), compared with 0.632 (95% CI: 0.612-0.652) for the ATRIA (Anticoagulation and Risk Factors in Atrial Fibrillation) and 0.614(95% CI: 0.594-0.633) for the CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc score (P < 0.001 for both). The results were similar for ischemic stroke/SEE with C-index for ABC-AF-istroke 0.677 (95% CI: 0.654-0.700) compared with 0.642 (95% CI: 0.618-0.666) for the ATRIA and 0.624 (95% CI: 0.601-0.647) for the CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc score (P < 0.001 for both). The ABC-AF-stroke scores showed good calibration for total and ischemic stroke. Results were consistent in relevant subgroups. Decision curve analyses showed a net benefit concerning stroke-prevention decision thresholds.

CONCLUSIONS The biomarker-based ABC-AF risk scores for the risk of total and ischemic stroke were well calibrated, showed better discrimination than clinical risk scores in predicting total and ischemic stroke, and provided meaningful decision support for stroke-prevention treatments in patients with AF. (c) 2025 Published by Elsevier on behalf of the American College of Cardiology Foundation.

Background and Aims: Acquired somatic mutations emerged as important drivers of adverse cardiovascular disease outcomes. Recently, mosaic loss of Y chromosome (LOY) in haematopoietic cells was identified to induce diffuse cardiac fibrosis in male mice. The aim of the present study was to determine the association between LOY and cardiovascular mortality in patients undergoing coronary angiography.

Methods: LOY was quantified in 1698 male participants of the LURIC study, who underwent coronary angiography, and its association with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality was determined. Furthermore, the interaction between LOY and inherited genetic susceptibility for cardiac fibrosis was assessed.

Results: The frequency of LOY steeply increased in male participants of LURIC at the age of 60 years. Loss of Y chromosome > 17% was associated with significantly higher all-cause [hazard ratio (HR) 1.41, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.09-1.82] and cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.49, 95% CI 1.09-2.03), which was driven by a higher risk for fatal myocardial infarction (HR 2.65, 95% CI 1.46-4.81). Loss of Y chromosome > 17% was associated with a profibrotic and proinflammatory plasma protein expression profile as characterized by higher plasma levels of osteoprotegerin, matrix metalloproteinase-12, growth differentiation factor 15, heparin-binding EGF-like growth factor, and resistin. Genetic predisposition for lower myocardial fibrosis attenuated the association between LOY and cardiovascular mortality. Genome-wide methylation analyses identified differential methylation in 298 genes including ACTB, RPS5, WDR1, CD151, and ARAP1. Single-cell RNA sequencing further confirmed differential gene expression of 37 of these genes in LOY in peripheral blood mononuclear cells comprising a set of fibrosis-regulating genes including RPS5. RPS5 silencing in macrophages induced a paracrine induction of collagen expression in cardiac fibroblasts documenting a functional role in vitro.

Conclusions: LOY represents an important independent risk factor for cardiovascular mortality in male patients with coronary artery disease. Targeting LOY may represent a sex-specific personalized medicine approach.

AIM: To investigate associations between psychosocial burden and biomarkers reflecting pathophysiological pathways in patients with chronic coronary syndrome.

METHODS: Psychosocial (PS) factors were collected from self-assessed questionnaires and biomarkers representing inflammation (high-sensitivity [hs]-C-reactive protein [CRP], interleukin-6 [IL-6], lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 [Lp-PLA2]) and cardiac injury/stress (hs-troponin T [hs-TnT], N-terminal pro-B type natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP]) were measured in 12,492 patients with chronic coronary syndrome in the STABILITY trial. Associations between level of each psychosocial factor (never-rarely (reference), sometimes, often-always) and biomarkers were evaluated using linear models with adjusted geometric mean ratios (GMR). A score comprising four factors ('feeling down', 'loss of interest', financial stress', 'living alone') that previously demonstrated association with cardiovascular (CV) outcome was created, and categorized into three levels: low, moderate and high PS burden. Associations between PS score and biomarkers were evaluated similarly.

RESULTS: Greater PS burden was significantly associated with a gradual increase in inflammatory biomarkers (GMR [95% CI] for moderate vs low PS burden; and high vs low PS burden): hs-CRP (1.09 [1.04-1.14]; 1.12 [1.06-1.17]), IL-6 (1.05 [1.02-1.07]; 1.08 [1.05-1.11]), LpPLA2 (1.01 [1.00 - 1.02]; 1.02 [1.01-1.04]) and cardiac biomarkers hs-TnT (1.03 [1.01-1.06]; 1.06 [1.03-1.09]) and NT-proBNP (1.09 [1.04-1.13]; 1.21 [1.15-1.27]).

CONCLUSIONS: In patients with chronic coronary syndrome, greater psychosocial burden was associated with increased levels of inflammatory and cardiac biomarkers. While this observational study does not establish causal nature of these associations, the findings suggest inflammation and cardiac injury/stress as plausible pathways linking psychosocial burden to an elevated CV risk, that needs to be further explored.

BACKGROUND: BMP10 (bone morphogenic protein 10) has emerged as a novel biomarker associated with the risk of ischemic stroke and other outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). The study aimed to determine if repeated BMP10 measurements improve prognostication of cardiovascular events in patients with AF. METHODS AND RESULTS: BMP10 was measured using a prototype Elecsys immunoassay in plasma samples collected at randomization and after 2 months in patients with AF randomized to apixaban or warfarin in the ARISTOTLE (Apixaban for Reduction in Stroke and Other Thromboembolic Events in Atrial Fibrillation) trial (n=2878). Adjusted Cox-regression models were used to evaluate the association between 2-month BMP10 levels and outcomes. BMP10 levels increased by 7.8% (P<0.001) over 2 months. The baseline variables most strongly associated with BMP10 levels at 2 months were baseline BMP10 levels, body mass index, sex, age, creatinine, diabetes, warfarin treatment, and AF-rhythm. During median 1.8 years follow-up, 34 ischemic strokes/systemic embolism, 155 deaths, and 99 heart failure hospitalizations occurred. Comparing the third with the first sample quartile, higher BMP10 levels at 2 months were associated with higher risk of ischemic stroke (hazard ratio [HR], 1.33 [95% CI, 0.67-2.63], P=0.037), heart failure (HR, 1.91 [95% CI, 1.17-3.12], P=0.012) and all-cause death (HR, 1.61 [95% CI, 1.17-2.21], P<0.001). Adding BMP10 levels at 2 months on top of established risk factors and baseline BMP10 levels improved the C-indices for ischemic stroke/systemic embolism (from 0.73 to 0.75), heart failure hospitalization (0.76-0.77), and all-cause mortality (0.70-0.72), all P<0.05. CONCLUSIONS: Elevated levels of BMP10 at 2 months strengthened the associations with the risk of ischemic stroke, hospitalization for heart failure, and all-cause mortality. Repeated measurements of BMP10 may further refine risk stratification in patients with AF.

Objectives: Biomarker concentrations and their changes during acute coronary syndrome (ACS) provide clinically useful information on pathophysiological processes, e.g. myocardial necrosis, hemodynamic stress and inflammation. However, current evidence on temporal biomarker patterns early during ACS is limited, and studies investigating multiple biomarkers are lacking.

Methods: We measured concentrations of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) and I (hs-cTnI), NT-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, C-reactive protein, and growth-differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15) in plasma samples obtained at randomization in ACS patients from the PLATelet inhibition and patient Outcomes (PLATO) trial. Linear regressions with interaction analyses were used to investigate the associations of biomarker concentrations with the time from symptom onset and to model temporal biomarker concentration patterns.

Results: The study population consisted of 16,944 patients (median age 62 years; 71.3 % males) with 6,853 (40.3 %) having ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and 10,141 (59.7 %) having non-ST-elevation ACS (NSTE-ACS). Concentrations of all biomarkers were associated with time from symptom onset (p_interaction<0.001), apart for GDF-15 (p_interaction=0.092). Concentration increases were more pronounced in STEMI compared to NSTE-ACS. Temporal biomarker patterns for hs-cTnT and hs-cTnI were different depending on sex whereas biomarker patterns for the other biomarkers were similar in cohorts defined by age and sex.

Conclusions: Temporal concentration patterns differ for various biomarkers early during ACS, reflecting the variability in the activation and duration of different pathophysiological processes, and the amount of injured myocardium. Our data emphasize that the time elapsed from symptom onset should be considered for the interpretation of biomarker results in ACS.

Background: The pathobiology of myocardial infarction (MI) with nonobstructive coronary arteries (MINOCA) is often uncertain. Investigating biomarker concentrations and their changes may offer novel pathophysiological insights.

Methods and Results: In this post hoc study of the PLATO (Platelet Inhibition and Patient Outcomes) trial, concentrations of hs‐cTnT (high‐sensitivity cardiac troponin T), NT‐proBNP (N‐terminal pro‐B‐type natriuretic peptide), hs‐CRP (high‐sensitivity C‐reactive protein), and GDF‐15 (growth differentiation factor 15) were measured in patients with MINOCA at baseline (n=554) and at 1‐month follow‐up (n=107). For comparisons, biomarkers were also measured in patients with MI with obstructive (stenosis ≥50%) coronary artery disease (baseline: n=11 106; follow‐up: n=2755]). Adjusted linear regression models were used to compare concentrations and their short‐ and long‐term changes. The adjusted geometric mean ratios (GMRs) in patients with MINOCA (median age, 61 years; 50.4% women) indicated lower hs‐cTnT (GMR, 0.77 [95% CI, 0.68–0.88]) but higher hs‐CRP (GMR, 1.21 [95% CI, 1.08–1.37]) and GDF‐15 concentrations (GMR, 1.06 [95% CI, 1.02–1.11]) at baseline compared with patients with MI with obstructive coronary artery disease, whereas NT‐proBNP concentrations were similar. Temporal decreases in hs‐cTnT, NT‐proBNP, and hs‐CRP concentrations until 1‐month follow‐up were more pronounced in patients with MINOCA. At follow‐up, patients with MINOCA had lower concentrations of hs‐cTnT (GMR, 0.71 [95% CI, 0.60–0.84]), NT‐proBNP (GMR, 0.45 [95% CI, 0.36–0.56]), and hs‐CRP (GMR, 0.68 [95% CI, 0.53–0.86]). One‐month GDF‐15 concentrations were similar between both groups with MI.

Conclusions: Biomarker concentrations suggest greater initial inflammatory activity, similar degree of myocardial dysfunction, and less pronounced myocardial injury during the acute phase of MINOCA compared with MI with obstructive coronary artery disease but also faster myocardial recovery.

CLINICAL TRAIL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00391872.

Background Treatment of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is a substantial burden to healthcare systems worldwide. New tools are needed to improve precision of treatment by optimizing the balance between efficacy, safety, and cost. We developed a high-throughput multi-marker decision support instrument which simultaneously quantifies proteins associated with CVD. Methods and findings Candidate proteins independently associated with different clinical outcomes were selected from clinical studies by the screening of 368 circulating biomarkers. We then custom-designed a quantitative PEA-panel with 21 proteins (CVD-21) by including recombinant antigens as calibrator samples for normalization and absolute quantification of the proteins. The utility of the CVD-21 tool was evaluated in plasma samples from a case-control cohort of 4224 patients with chronic coronary syndrome (CCS) using multivariable Cox regression analyses and machine learning techniques. The assays in the CVD-21 tool gave good precision and high sensitivity with lower level of determination (LOD) between 0.03-0.7 pg/ml for five of the biomarkers. The dynamic range for the assays was sufficient to accurately quantify the biomarkers in the validation study except for troponin I, which in the modeling was replaced by high-sensitive cardiac troponin T (hs-TnT). We created seven different multimarker models, including a reference model with NT-proBNP, hs-TnT, GDF-15, IL-6, and cystatin C and one model with only clinical variables, for the comparison of the discriminative value of the CVD-21 tool. All models with biomarkers including hs-TnT provided similar discrimination for all outcomes, e.g. c-index between 0.68-0.86 and outperformed models using only clinical variables. Most important prognostic biomarkers were MMP-12, U-PAR, REN, VEGF-D, FGF-23, TFF3, ADM, and SCF. Conclusions The CVD-21 tool is the very first instrument which with PEA simultaneously quantifies 21 proteins with associations to different CVD. Novel pathophysiologic and prognostic information beyond that of established biomarkers were identified by a number of proteins.

Circulating proteins have important functions in inflammation and a broad range of diseases. To identify genetic influences on inflammation-related proteins, we conducted a genome-wide protein quantitative trait locus (pQTL) study of 91 plasma proteins measured using the Olink Target platform in 14,824 participants. We identified 180 pQTLs (59 cis, 121 trans). Integration of pQTL data with eQTL and disease genome-wide association studies provided insight into pathogenesis, implicating lymphotoxin-alpha in multiple sclerosis. Using Mendelian randomization (MR) to assess causality in disease etiology, we identified both shared and distinct effects of specific proteins across immune-mediated diseases, including directionally discordant effects of CD40 on risk of rheumatoid arthritis versus multiple sclerosis and inflammatory bowel disease. MR implicated CXCL5 in the etiology of ulcerative colitis (UC) and we show elevated gut CXCL5 transcript expression in patients with UC. These results identify targets of existing drugs and provide a powerful resource to facilitate future drug target prioritization. Here the authors identify genetic effectors of the level of inflammation-related plasma proteins and use Mendelian randomization to identify proteins that contribute to immune-mediated disease risk.

Background

Decisions on stroke prevention strategies in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) depend on the perceived risks of stroke and bleeding with different antithrombotic treatment strategies. The study objectives were to evaluate net clinical outcome with oral anticoagulation (OAC) for the individual patient with AF and to identify clinically relevant thresholds for OAC treatment.

Methods

Patients with AF receiving OAC treatment in the randomized ARISTOTLE and RE-LY trials, with available biomarkers for calculation of ABC-AF scores at baseline, were included (n = 23,121). Observed 1-year risk on OAC was compared with predicted 1-year risk if the same patients would not have received OAC using the ABC-AF scores calibrated for aspirin. Net clinical outcome was defined as the sum of stroke and major bleeding risks.

Results

The ratio between the 1-year incidence of major bleeding and stroke/systemic embolism events ranged from 1.4 to 10.6 according to different ABC-AF risk profiles. Net clinical outcome analyses showed that in patients with an ABC-AF-stroke risk >1% per year on OAC (>3% without OAC), treatment with OAC consistently provides larger net clinical benefit than no-OAC treatment. In patients with an ABC-AF-stroke risk <1.0% per year on OAC (<3% without OAC) an individualized balancing of risks regarding OAC or no-OAC treatment is needed.

Conclusions

In patients with AF, the ABC-AF risk scores allow an individual and continuous estimate of the balance between benefits and risks with OAC treatment. This precision medicine tool therefore seems useful as decision support and visualizes the net clinical benefit or harm with OAC treatment (http://www.abc-score.com/abcaf/).

Clinical Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT00412984 (ARISTOTLE) and NCT00262600 (RE-LY).

Aims: Several biomarkers are associated with clinical outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), but a causal relationship has not been established. This study aimed to evaluate angiopoietin-2, a novel candidate biomarker of endothelial inflammation and vascular remodelling, in patients with AF.

Methods and results: Angiopoietin-2 was measured in plasma obtained from patients with AF treated with aspirin monotherapy (exploration cohort, n = 2987) or with oral anticoagulation (validation cohort, n = 13 079). Regression models were built to assess the associations between angiopoietin-2, clinical characteristics, and outcomes. In both cohorts, plasma angiopoietin-2 was independently associated with AF on the baseline electrocardiogram and persistent/permanent AF, age, history of heart failure, female sex, tobacco use/smoking, body mass index, renal dysfunction, diabetes, and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP). Angiopoietin-2 was independently associated with subsequent hospitalization for heart failure after adjusting for age, creatinine, and clinical characteristics in the exploration cohort [c-index 0.79, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.75-0.82; third vs. first quartile, hazard ratio (HR) 1.74, 95% CI 1.26-2.41] and in the validation cohort (c-index 0.76, 95% CI 0.74-0.78; HR 1.58, 95% CI 1.37-1.82). In both cohorts, the association persisted when also adjusting for NT-proBNP (P & LE; 0.001). In full multivariable models also adjusted for NT-proBNP, angiopoietin-2 did not show statistically significant associations with ischaemic stroke, cardiovascular and all-cause death, or major bleeding that were consistent across the two cohorts.

Conclusions: In patients with AF, plasma levels of angiopoietin-2 were independently associated with subsequent hospitalization for heart failure and provided incremental prognostic value to clinical risk factors and NT-proBNP.