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In 1948, the social democratic government of Sweden imposed newwealth transfer taxes including an estate tax. Events have beencharacterised as the definite breakdown of the co-operation betweensocial democracy and organised business. This article attacks the topicfrom the perspective of the reproduction of the business elite throughthe inheritance and the gift. The tax reform triggered an epidemic ofgenerosity. In 1947, gift tax revenue was 20 times higher than theannual averages before and after. We have studied the individual actorsof the Swedish business elite as donors and concluded that 76 couplesof the business elite transferred 25.2 msek to above all their children.The joint political campaign of organised business against the reformraised 24.8 msek. The result complicates and questions previousassumptions concerning the motives of the business elite for protestingagainst the tax reform.

Henry Ohlsson var vice riksbankschef under perioden januari 2015-juni 2023. Här sammanfattas hans viktiga erfarenheter från arbetet som penningpolitisk beslutsfattare i Riksbankens direktion. Det gäller framför allt penningpolitiken men också annat som påverkar Riksbankens verksamhet, som den finansiella stabiliteten, betalningssystemet och den svenska kronans växelkurs. Författaren har bestämda uppfattningar om hur man bör göra för att avgöra vilken penningpolitik som är lämplig, och hur man inte bör göra. Boken är inte skriven för den som är expert inom området. Istället är syftet att förklara penningpolitik för läsare som vill lära sig mer om området och bättre förstå Riksbankens verksamhet.

Henry Ohlsson (f. 1956) är professor emeritus i nationalekonomi vid Uppsala universitet sedan 2024. Han har, utöver sitt akademiska arbete och uppdrag vid Riksbanken, varit mångårig ledamot i styrelsen för Arbetsförmedlingen samt verksam som oberoende ledamot av Industrins Ekonomiska Råd.

Wealth transfer tax systems based on inheritances and inter vivos gifts, rather than estates, allow donors to shift wealth among potential recipients with the goal of minimizing tax burdens. However, tax minimization often requires the donor to give up control over wealth if the transfers are made as inter vivos. Usually, such behavior is difficult to analyze as many potential heirs and many different tax schedules are involved. In this article, we study a simple setting that allows us to obtain transparent and credible evidence of inheritance tax responses. Swedish heirs could easily lower their inheritance tax bills to zero by giving part of the inheritance to their children. Using detailed administrative data, we show that many heirs tax minimized in a precise fashion. Still, among those inheriting just above the exemption, only about a half avoided the tax. Preferences for holding wealth and information seem to play major roles. Our findings have general policy relevance, because similar (but more complex) tax avoidance strategies can be used to avoid any inheritance tax.

When major and unusual events such as a war occur, there is no ‘manual’ for how to act as an economic policy-maker. All wars are different – in terms of their scale and duration, their location and their impact on the world around them. Instead, one must try to find parallels with previous historical episodes and study the research literature on the economic consequences of war to see if it is possible to find common denominators. It is clear, however, that war often leads to higher inflation in one way or another. In this article, we will first briefly review what research literature has to say about the connection between war and inflation. Then we will take a look back at earlier episodes when war was associated with rising inflation in Sweden, and draw some conclusions from this.

We document an episode with considerable tax avoidance that occurred in Italy after 2008 when the Italian government reformed the property taxation by abolishing taxation on principal residences and increasing taxation on secondary properties. In the presence of a very lowinter vivosgift tax, Italian families found it beneficial to redistribute properties among their members. Difference-in-difference estimates indicate that property tax reform increased the probability that high-wealth donors made aninter vivosproperty gift relative to less wealthy donors. This in turn affected the donees' income capacity and consumption, increasing inequalities. We show that family ties give room for households' strategic behavior to avoid taxes; hence, it is relevant to take them into consideration when designing effective fiscal policies.

We estimate the importance of inherited wealth in Sweden over the past 200 years. Inheritance is measured both as the annual inheritance flow divided by national income and as the share of inherited wealth in all private wealth. In the 19th century, Sweden differs from France and the United Kingdom in having much lower inheritance-income flows, but at the same time exhibiting equally large shares of inherited wealth in total wealth. This pattern is in line with Sweden at the time being a poor country with low domestic capital accumulation, but at the same time exhibiting high economic growth rates. In the 20th century the importance of inheritance in relation to national income fell, but since the 1990s it has increased rapidly, today reaching almost the same levels as a century ago. The share of inherited wealth in total wealth has also fallen over time, but remains relatively low due to a rapid accumulation of new wealth. We study potential determinants and explanations, pointing especially to Swedish welfare-state institutions, and in particular to the development of an extensive public occupational pension system contributing to keeping private inheritance low.

This study contributes to the empirical literature testing bequest motives by using a population-wide administrative dataset, covering data on inherited amounts for complete families matched with an extensive set of economic and demographic variables, to estimate the influence of child characteristics on differences in inherited amounts among siblings. Our main findings are, first, children who are more likely to have provided services to the parent receive more than their siblings, as predicted by the exchange model. Second, daughters with children receive more than sons with children. This is consistent with the prediction of the evolutionary model that larger investments should go to offspring who are certain to be genetically related. There are also Cinderella effects-that is, adopted stepchildren receive less than siblings who are biological or children who are adopted by both parents. Third, we do not find support for the prediction of the altruism model that bequests are compensatory.

We document an episode with considerable tax avoidance that occurred in Italy after 2008 when the Italian government reformed the property taxation by abolishing taxation on principal residences and increasing taxation on secondary properties. In presence of a very low inter vivos gift tax, Italian families found it benecial to redistribute properties among their members. Dierence-in-dierence estimates indicate that property tax reform increased the probability that high-wealth donors made an inter vivos property gift by 3 percentage points and the size transferred by 4 square meters relative to less wealthy donors. Our estimates allow us to compute (back of the envelope) the amount of tax avoidance due to inter vivos transfer. The amount is around 78 million euros, or 4 percent of the annual tax revenue from principal residences.

Diskussioner om laglottens vara och inte vara blossar med jämna mellanrum upp i den offentliga debatten. Laglotten innebär att en förälder inte kan göra ett barn arvlöst. Med information om förmögenhetsöverföringar från bouppteckningar studerar vi de beslut som avlidna föräldrar fattat om fördelningen av sin kvarlåtenskap mellan sina barn. Det är bara för en obetydlig andel av de avlidna föräldrarna som laglotten är en restriktion. Förslag om slopande av laglotten berör därför i praktiken endast väldigt få människor.

We study if taxpayers are loss averse when filing returns. Preliminary deficits might be viewed as losses assuming zero preliminary balances as reference points. Swedish taxpayers can to try to escape such losses by claiming deductions after receiving information about the preliminary balance. Using a regression kink and discontinuity approach, we study data for 3.6 million Swedish taxpayers for 2006. There are strong causal effects of preliminary tax deficits on the probability of claiming deductions. Compliance will increase and auditing costs will be reduced if preliminary taxes are calibrated so that most taxpayers receive refunds.