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Rakhmankulova, Malika
Publications (2 of 2) Show all publications
Hegre, H., Lindqvist-McGowan, A., Vesco, P., Jansen, R. & Rakhmankulova, M. (2022). Forecasting armed conflict in the Sahel: Forecasts for November 2021–October 2024. Uppsala
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Forecasting armed conflict in the Sahel: Forecasts for November 2021–October 2024
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2022 (English)Report (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
Abstract [en]

Preventing armed conflict is key to promoting development and well-being in the Sahel. To strengthen its work to promote peace globally, the United Nations have recently stressed the importance of early action and early warning about impending conflict. This report presents the ViEWS system, a systematic, data-driven conflict early-warning system developed for Africa and the Middle East. Designed to complement expert assessments drawing on qualitative methods, the system produces estimates of the probability that armed conflict events will occur in countries and sub-national locations during each of the next 1–36 months. The report outlines the main features of the system, discusses the uncertainties involved and how well the system handles these, and presents the latest forecasts for the UNISS countries of the Sahel. The ViEWS forecasts are updated on a monthly basis and made available in full through an API, and in summarised form on the ViEWS website. The report also outlines some possible future developments and improvements of the system. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Uppsala: , 2022. p. 66
Keywords
Sahel, Conflict, Forecast, ViEWS
National Category
Social Sciences
Research subject
Peace and Conflict Research
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-464571 (URN)
Available from: 2022-01-14 Created: 2022-01-14 Last updated: 2022-01-20Bibliographically approved
Blocher, J., Destrijcker, L., Fischer, B., Gleixner, S., Gornott, C., Hegre, H., . . . Zvolsky, A. (2022). Moving from Reaction to Action - Anticipating Vulnerability Hotspots in the Sahel: A synthesis report from the Sahel Predictive Analytics project in support of the United Nations Integrated Strategy for the Sahel (UNISS). United Nations Office of the Special Coordinator for Development in the Sahel (OSCDS); United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Moving from Reaction to Action - Anticipating Vulnerability Hotspots in the Sahel: A synthesis report from the Sahel Predictive Analytics project in support of the United Nations Integrated Strategy for the Sahel (UNISS)
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2022 (English)Report (Other academic)
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
United Nations Office of the Special Coordinator for Development in the Sahel (OSCDS); United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), 2022
Keywords
Sahel, Conflict, Forecast, Climate change, Predictive Analytics, Strategic foresight
National Category
Other Social Sciences not elsewhere specified
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-488475 (URN)
Projects
Sahel Predictive Analytics project
Available from: 2022-11-16 Created: 2022-11-16 Last updated: 2022-11-21Bibliographically approved
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