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The 2022 European drought has underscored critical deficiencies in European water management. This paper explores these shortcomings and suggests a way forward for European drought risk management. Data for this study was gathered through a continent-wide survey of water managers involved in this event. The survey collected 481 responses from 30 European countries and is comprised of 19 questions concerning sectorial impact in the regions of the responders and drought risk management practices of their organizations. Information from the survey is enriched with climate-related information to offer a comprehensive overview of drought risk management in Europe. Our research focuses on four key aspects: the increasing risk of drought, its spatial and temporal impacts, current drought risk management approaches, and the evolution of drought risk management across the continent. Our findings reveal a consensus on the growing risk of drought, which is confounded by the rising frequency and intensity of droughts. While the 2022 event affected most of the continent, our findings show significant regional disparities in drought risk management capacity among the various countries. Our analysis indicates that current drought risk management measures often rely on short-term operational concerns, particularly in agriculture-dominated economies, leading to potentially maladaptive practices. An overall positive trend in drought risk management, with organizations showing increased awareness and preparedness, indicates how this crisis can be the ideal moment to mainstream European-wide drought risk management. Consequently, we advocate for a European Drought Directive, to harmonize and enforce drought risk management policies across the continent. This directive should promote a systemic, integrated, and long-term risk management perspective. The directive should also set clear guidelines for drought risk management at the national level and for cross-boundary drought collaboration.

Climate services play a central role in adaptation strategies to water-related risks, yet the long-term implications of relying on different types of climate information remain poorly understood. This paper presents a system dynamics model that explores how short-term and long-term climate services influence adaptation trajectories balancing agricultural production and wealth generation with water management and ecosystem protection. We apply the model to a synthetic case study where water scarcity poses the main risk for agriculture, considering precipitation forecasts as the main climate service. Short-term climate services (e.g. sub-seasonal forecasts) prioritize immediate risks and can drive reactive adaptation, such as rapid reservoir expansion and agricultural intensification. Long-term climate services (e.g. climate projections), by contrast, can support strategic planning and promote transformative measures, such as ecological restoration. Our model shows trade-offs between rapid wealth generation and long-term sustainability. Scenarios dominated by short-term climate services lead to faster economic growth, but also frequent water crises and potential system collapse. In contrast, reliance on long-term climate services can help build resilience and prevent collapse, but lead to slower returns. Intermediate scenarios can avoid the worst outcomes, though they remain unstable and highly sensitive to climatic variability and shocks. Under climate change, increased variability in water recharge amplifies the demand for reactive measures, reinforcing short-term feedbacks and amplifying the risk of maladaptation. These findings highlight the importance of providing adaptation planners with long-term climate services that support the development of sustainable options while reducing the pressure of immediate threats. The model offers a conceptual framework for anticipating maladaptive patterns and emphasizes the need to balance short- and long-term objectives in coping with climate change. 

Droughts are often long-lasting phenomena, without a distinct start or end and with impacts cascading across sectors and systems, creating long-term legacies. Nevertheless, our current perceptions and management of droughts and their impacts are often event-based, which can limit the effective assessment of drought risks and reduction of drought impacts. Here, we advocate for changing this perspective and viewing drought as a hydrological–ecological–social continuum. We take a systems theory perspective and focus on how “memory” causes feedback and interactions between parts of the interconnected systems at different timescales. We first discuss the characteristics of the drought continuum with a focus on the hydrological, ecological, and social systems separately, and then we study the system of systems. Our analysis is based on a review of the literature and a study of five cases: Chile, the Colorado River basin in the USA, northeast Brazil, Kenya, and the Rhine River basin in northwest Europe. We find that the memories of past dry and wet periods, carried by both bio-physical (e.g. groundwater, vegetation) and social systems (e.g. people, governance), influence how future drought risk manifests. We identify four archetypes of drought dynamics: impact and recovery, slow resilience building, gradual collapse, and high resilience–big shock. The interactions between the hydrological, ecological, and social systems result in systems shifting between these types, which plays out differently in the five case studies. We call for more research on drought preconditions and recovery in different systems, on dynamics cascading between systems and triggering system changes, and on dynamic vulnerability and maladaptation. Additionally, we advocate for more continuous monitoring of drought hazards and impacts, modelling tools that better incorporate memories and adaptation responses, and management strategies that increase societal and institutional memory. This will help us to better deal with the complex hydrological–ecological–social drought continuum and identify effective pathways to adaptation and mitigation.

Droughts in Europe are becoming increasingly frequent and severe, with the 2022 drought surpassing previous records and causing widespread socio-economic impacts. This study employs a Europe-wide survey that integrates data from 481 respondents from 30 European countries, involved in the management of the 2022 European drought, together with hydroclimatic data (i.e., Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index; SPEI), to provide a holistic assessment of the effect of drought preparedness on response effectiveness and timeliness during the 2022 drought through statistical methods. It specifically assesses the role of forecasting systems and Drought Management Plans (DMPs) in improving preparedness and in facilitating more effective and timely responses. Additionally, the study investigates how drought management practices and awareness have evolved as a consequence of the 2018 European drought and how recent experiences shape water managers’ perceptions. The findings emphasize the urgent need for a standardized, continent-wide drought risk management coordination to address the multifaceted nature of drought risk by integrating climatic and societal factors, and advocates for a Drought Directive as a means to achieve it. This research aims to inform policy development towards sustainable and holistic drought risk management, highlighting the crucial roles of preparedness, awareness, and adaptive strategies in mitigating future drought impacts.

Developing and implementing climate adaptation measures in complex socio-ecological systems can lead to unintended consequences, especially when those systems are undergoing rapid hydro-climatic and socio-economic change. In these dynamic contexts, a systemic approach can make the difference between adaptive and maladaptive outcomes. This paper focuses on the use of climate services, often touted as no-regret solutions, and their potential to generate maladaptation. We explored the interactions between climate services and adaptation/maladaptation across five case studies affected by different types of natural hazards and characterized by a range of hydro-climatic and socio-economic conditions. Using system archetypes, we show how climate services can play a role in both producing and preventing maladaptation. The dynamics explored through system archetypes are: i) “fixes that fail”, where short-sighted solutions fail to address the root causes of a problem; ii) “band aid solutions”, where the benefits brought about in the short-term come at the expenses of delaying long-term adaptive actions; and iii) “success to the successful”, where some groups increasingly benefit from climate services at the expenses of other groups. We demonstrate how these dynamics constitute maladaptive processes, as well as identifying the tools and theories that can be used in this type of assessment. Finally, we provide a framework and recommendations to guide the ex-ante assessment of maladaptation risk when designing and implementing climate services.

Climate change is increasingly affecting mountain communities around the world with major implications for human livelihoods and wellbeing. With its predominantly rural population and limited resources, the Indian Himalayan Region is particularly vulnerable. While previous research has highlighted the destructive potential of climate change, we focused on the socioeconomic and ecological drivers of climate vulnerabilities and their links to migration and depopulation trends, which can be observed in the area. A mixed-methods case study approach was used to explore these relationships in the state of Uttarakhand in the western Indian Himalayan Region. Combining evidence from an aggregate vulnerability index, migration data, and insights from qualitative interviews, we found a close link between local climate vulnerabilities and migration. Considering different drivers, we show that limited adaptive capacities are the decisive factor shaping vulnerabilities and migration in the region, in particular, the high dependency on rainfed agriculture together with ecological, infrastructural, human, and financial constraints. With higher vulnerability, migrants tend to become younger, engage more in short-term migration, and increasingly employ migration in response to structural vulnerabilities and livelihood risks. The outmigration of young males has major implications for their origin communities, as the population left behind becomes older and more feminized.