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Title [sv]
Eldupphöravtal och våldsdynamik i konfliktområden
Title [en]
Ceasefires and the dynamics of violence in war zones
Abstract [en]
How do ceasefire agreements shape the trajectory of violence in civil war zones? Under what conditions do they stop the killing, and when do they open up new frontlines and trigger shifts in the actors, forms, and locations of violence instead? Despite their pivotal role in all peace processes, we do not yet have a clear understanding of how ceasefires shape the nature and severity of violence in conflict societies. This project, a collaboration between researchers from Uppsala University and ETH Zürich, fills this lacuna. We develop a theoretical framework that links ceasefires to the strategic use of violence during civil war. At the heart of our argument is the notion that ceasefires reshape the incentives and opportunities for violence, with the effect that some types of violence stop, while others likely escalate. To test our claims, we develop the first systematic global ceasefire dataset. The Civil War Ceasefires (CWC) data will identify all ceasefires during civil wars from 1989 to 2020. Combining the CWC data with fine-grained conflict event data, the project proposes a novel spatial methodology to explore the impacts of ceasefires on the nature of armed violence, such as the location, perpetrators and targets of violence. To ensure the relevance of this project for policy and practice, moreover, we focus our analyses on the differential impact of ceasefire characteristics that can be changed by third parties who push for, design, and monitor ceasefires.
Principal InvestigatorBara, Corinne
Coordinating organisation
Uppsala University
Funder
Period
2019-01-01 － 2021-12-31
National Category
Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalization Studies)
Identifiers
DiVA, id: project:6238Project, id: 2018-01520_VR
v. 2.47.0
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