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Title [sv]
Valrelaterat våld och det institutionella arvet
Title [en]
The Institutional Roots of Electoral Violence
Abstract [sv]
Införandet av flerpartival är grundläggande i övergången från auktoritärt till demokratiskt styre. Men erfarenheter från olika delar av världen ‒ i Afghanistan, Zimbabwe och Colombia ‒ visar att val kan urarta i våldsamheter. Våldsamma val hindar individer från att utöva sina politiska rättigheter och undergräver förtroendet för demokratiska institutioner. Hittills har forskning om orsakerna till valrelaterat våld främst fokuserat på de omedelbara faktorer som påverkar valets dynamik, såsom osäkerhet kring valutfallet eller närvaron av valobservatörer. I denna studie skiftar vi fokus från det kortsiktiga perspektivet till att studera de långsiktiga processer som styr hur institutioner utvecklas över tid. Vi ställer frågan: Hur påverkas risken för valrelaterat våld av institutionell utveckling innan, under och efter övergången från auktoritärt till demokratiskt styre? Studien använder både kvantitativa och kvalitativa analyser för att fånga processer över tid och rum. Projektet innefattar en global datainsamling som innefattar valrelaterade konflikter under tidsperioden 1989 till 2015 och som utgör grunden för avancerade statistiska analyser. Kvantitativ analys kompletteras av en jämförande analys av Kenya och Zambia, som har exempelvis likande valsystem, men påfallande olika erfarenheter av våld under val. Sammantaget kommer studien att bidra till att öka kunskapen om valrelaterat våld och konsekvenserna för politiska institutioner, fred och demokrati.
Abstract [en]
Multiparty elections are fundamental components in the transition from authoritarian to democratic rule. But experiences from around the globe, for instance in Afghanistan, Zimbabwe and Colombia, show that elections can degenerate into violence. Violent elections hinder individuals from exercising their political rights and undermine the legitimacy of democratic institutions. Research on the causes of election-induced violence has primarily focused on the immediate factors that shape the dynamics of electoral contests, such as the uncertainty of the electoral outcome or the presence of election observers. This study shifts focus from the short-term to the long-term processes of institutional development during political transitions: How is the risk of election-induced violence influenced by institutional developments before, during and after the transition from authoritarian to democratic rule? We use a mixed method approach to capture the dynamics at play by combining quantitative and qualitative analysis. The project will provide a first global dataset on violent electoral conflicts from 1989 to 2015. We will also make an in-depth analysis of Kenya and Zambia. These countries have, for instance, similar electoral systems, but markedly different experiences of violence around elections. Jointly, the contributions will advance our understanding of the causes of electoral violence and its consequences for political institutions, peace and democracy.
Publications (1 of 1) Show all publications
Elfversson, E. (2025). Contentious cities?: Urban growth and electoral violence in Africa. World Development, 193, Article ID 107066.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Contentious cities?: Urban growth and electoral violence in Africa
2025 (English)In: World Development, ISSN 0305-750X, E-ISSN 1873-5991, Vol. 193, article id 107066Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

How does rapid urban growth affect the risk of electoral violence in African cities? Across the continent, societies have been undergoing simultaneous processes that may affect the risk of violent upheaval: democratic change and urbanization. However, although electoral violence often disproportionally affects cities, we do not know if and how the process of urban growth in itself impacts such violence. Existing research highlights that urbanization holds a strong potential for progress and democracy-enhancement, but also for destructive and violence-inducing dynamics. Drawing on collective action theory, I develop a theoretical argument about the relationship between urban growth and the mobilization of electoral violence. I hypothesize that rapid city growth conditions elites’ strategic incentives to employ electoral violence, and may increase the risk of such violence through two mechanisms: by increasing uncertainty about local election outcomes, and by making it easier for politicians to mobilize violence based on grievances among urban groups. I assess these expectations by using georeferenced data on electoral violence, covering democratic elections in Africa (1990–2012), and matching it with data on the urban growth pace of all cities with at least 50,000 inhabitants. This approach avoids the pitfalls of focusing only on major cities, and enables an analysis of both cross- and within state dynamics. Using this approach, I identify a robust correlation between the pace of urban population growth and the risk of electoral violence in the city. Extended analysis indicates that urban growth is associated with a higher risk of election violence in larger, more established cities (including both major and secondary cities), but not in smaller, emerging cities.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2025
Keywords
Electoral violence, Urban violence, Urbanization, Urban growth, Africa, Kenya
National Category
Peace and Conflict Studies Political Science (Excluding Peace and Conflict Studies)
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-556495 (URN)10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107066 (DOI)001492119300001 ()2-s2.0-105004944761 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Swedish Research Council, 2018–03924Riksbankens Jubileumsfond, P16-0124:1
Available from: 2025-05-13 Created: 2025-05-13 Last updated: 2025-06-04Bibliographically approved
Co-InvestigatorHöglund, Kristine
Principal InvestigatorHöglund, Kristine
Co-InvestigatorHegre, Håvard
Coordinating organisation
Uppsala University
Funder
Period
2017-01-01 - 2019-12-31
National Category
Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalization Studies)Other Social Sciences not elsewhere specified
Identifiers
DiVA, id: project:7002Project, id: P16-0124:1_RJ