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Do Atlantic‐European weather regimes physically exist?
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research Department of Tropospheric Research (IMK‐TRO) Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) Karlsruhe, Germany; Fredy and Nadine Hermann Institute of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem (HUJI)Jerusalem, Israel.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-9881-1893
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2032-5211
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research Department of Tropospheric Research (IMK‐TRO) Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) Karlsruhe, Germany.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8409-2541
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research Department of Tropospheric Research (IMK‐TRO) Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) Karlsruhe, Germany.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8865-1769
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2021 (English)In: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 48, no 20, article id e2021GL095574Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The sub-seasonal variability of the extra-tropical large-scale atmospheric flow is characterized by recurrent or quasi-stationary circulation anomalies, termed weather regimes. Despite the usefulness of these regimes in numerous meteorological and socioeconomic applications, there is an ongoing debate as to whether they represent physical modes of the atmosphere, or are merely useful statistical categorizations. Here, we answer this question for wintertime Atlantic-European regimes. We argue that dynamical systems theory applied to a refined regime definition provides strong evidence in support of most weather regimes being physically meaningful. This finding underpins the broad relevance of weather regimes, for understanding the response of the atmosphere to external forcing, supporting sub-seasonal weather forecasting, and down-scaling of climate projections.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
American Geophysical Union (AGU) American Geophysical Union (AGU), 2021. Vol. 48, no 20, article id e2021GL095574
Keywords [en]
subseasonal variability, extratropical weather regimes, climate dynamics, Europe, Euro-Atlantic
National Category
Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-456360DOI: 10.1029/2021gl095574ISI: 000747834500078OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-456360DiVA, id: diva2:1604176
Funder
Swedish Research Council, 2016-03724European Commission, 948309EU, European Research Council, 948309Available from: 2021-10-19 Created: 2021-10-19 Last updated: 2024-01-15Bibliographically approved

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Messori, Gabriele

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