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The 2022 Drought Shows the Importance of Preparedness in European Drought Risk Management
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science (CNDS).ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0640-5725
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science (CNDS).ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0492-7407
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2024 (English)In: Natural hazards and earth system sciences, ISSN 1561-8633, E-ISSN 1684-9981Article in journal (Other academic) In press
Abstract [en]

Droughts in Europe are becoming increasingly frequent and severe, with the 2022 drought surpassing previous records and causing widespread socio-economic impacts. This study employs a Europe-wide survey that integrates data from 481 respondents from 30 European countries, involved in the management of the 2022 European drought, together with hydroclimatic data (i.e., Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index; SPEI), to provide a holistic assessment of the effect of drought preparedness on response effectiveness and timeliness during the 2022 drought through statistical methods. It specifically assesses the role of forecasting systems and Drought Management Plans (DMPs) in improving preparedness and in facilitating more effective and timely responses. Additionally, the study investigates how drought management practices and awareness have evolved as a consequence of the 2018 European drought and how recent experiences shape water managers’ perceptions. The findings emphasize the urgent need for a standardized, continent-wide drought risk management coordination to address the multifaceted nature of drought risk by integrating climatic and societal factors, and advocates for a Drought Directive as a means to achieve it. This research aims to inform policy development towards sustainable and holistic drought risk management, highlighting the crucial roles of preparedness, awareness, and adaptive strategies in mitigating future drought impacts.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2024.
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-537776OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-537776DiVA, id: diva2:1894912
Funder
EU, Horizon 2020, 10103729EU, Horizon 2020, 956396EU, Horizon Europe, 101121192EU, Horizon 2020, 101003876EU, European Research Council, PE0000005Swedish Research Council, 2023-06545Swedish Research Council Formas, 942-2015-1123
Note

This study and its companion paper "The 2022 Drought Needs to be a Turning Point for European Drought Risk Management" are the result of a study carried out by the Drought in the Anthropocene (DitA) network.

Available from: 2024-09-04 Created: 2024-09-04 Last updated: 2025-10-14Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Disentangling the nexus between climate information and (mal)adaptation in socio-ecological-technical systems
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Disentangling the nexus between climate information and (mal)adaptation in socio-ecological-technical systems
2025 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Alternative title[en]
Adaptation with Climate Services : Disentangling the nexus between climate information and (mal)adaptation in socio-ecological-technical systems
Abstract [en]

Adaptation to climate change is increasingly recognized as necessary for societal resilience. Yet, adaptation is neither straightforward nor inherently positive in today’s complex, unequal and rapidly changing world, which characterized the Anthropocene. This thesis investigates the interplay between climate information and (mal)adaptation in socio-ecological-technical systems (SETSs), with a particular focus on drought risk management in Europe. Through five interlinked studies, this research examines how climate services are used, misused, or underutilized in climate change adaptation, and how their design, accessibility, and usability influence maladaptive outcomes.

Papers I and II analyse the European response to the 2022 drought, uncovering both the growing awareness of drought risk and the limitations of preparedness and institutional coordination. Findings highlight persistent fragmentation and reliance on short-term operational responses. The two papers also include a call for a European Drought Directive to enshrine systemic drought risk management into European governance. Paper III conceptualizes climate services through a system thinking lens, revealing how design and delivery may unintentionally reinforce path dependencies and systemic inequalities across a series of case studies. Paper IV develops a system dynamics model to explore trade-offs in adaptation pathways. It shows how short-term climate services may offer rapid economic gains but can heighten the risk of long-term system collapse. Conversely, long-term services foster resilience but demand delayed gratification and slower wealth generation. Paper V interrogates the format-function gap in climate service design, emphasizing how entrenched expectations and techno-scientific norms may stifle context-specific and transformative approaches.

Across these studies, the thesis argues that maladaptation is not simply the result of poor decisions, but often emerges from well-intentioned but narrowly framed interventions, shaped by institutional constraints, political priorities, and epistemic norms. Climate information is therefore not a neutral addition, it plays a key role in driving adaptive and maladaptive processes. The thesis contributes to the development of more inclusive, reflexive, and transformative climate services. It advocates for a pluralistic vision of adaptation that embraces complexity, acknowledges trade-offs, and centres the diverse needs and values of affected communities.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Uppsala: Acta Universitatis Upsaliensis, 2025. p. 79
Series
Digital Comprehensive Summaries of Uppsala Dissertations from the Faculty of Science and Technology, ISSN 1651-6214 ; 2600
Keywords
climate change adaptation; climate services; maladaptation; system thinking; system dynamics.
National Category
Environmental Sciences Climate Science Multidisciplinary Geosciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-569550 (URN)978-91-513-2632-0 (ISBN)
Public defence
2025-12-05, Hambergsalen, Geocentrum, Villavägen 16, Uppsala, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2025-11-14 Created: 2025-10-14 Last updated: 2025-11-14

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Biella, RiccardoShyrokaya, AnastasiyaStenfors, ElinDi Baldassarre, GiulianoTeutschbein, Claudia

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