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Climate variability, crop and conflict: Exploring the impacts of spatial concentration in agricultural production
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. CMCC Venice, Italy. (ViEWS)ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0368-0633
Department of Economics, Ca' Foscari University of Venice; European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra.
Department of Economics, Ca' Foscari University of Venice; CMCC, Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change.
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5372-7129
2021 (English)In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 58, no 1, p. 98-113Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Although substantive agreement exists on the role of climate variability and food scarcity in increasing violence, a limited number of studies have investigated how food resources affect violent conflict. This article explores the complex linkages between climate variability, agricultural production and conflict onset, by focusing on the spatial distribution of crop production in a cross-country setting. We hypothesize that spatial differences in crop production within countries are a relevant factor in shaping the impact of climate variability on conflict in agriculturally -dependent countries. To test this hypothesis, we rely on high-resolution global gridded data on the local yield of four main crops for the period 1982–2015 and aggregate the grid-cell information on crop production to compute an empirical indicator of the spatial concentration of agricultural production within countries. Our results show that the negative impacts of climate variability lead to an increase in the spatial concentration of agricultural production within countries. In turn, the combined effect of climate extremes and crop production concentration increases the predicted probability of conflict onset by up to 14% in agriculturally dependent countries.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Sage Publications, 2021. Vol. 58, no 1, p. 98-113
Keywords [en]
agriculture, food, climate variability, conflict
National Category
Political Science Climate Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-430701DOI: 10.1177/0022343320971020ISI: 000614542200007OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-430701DiVA, id: diva2:1517382
Projects
CLIMSECENERGYA
Part of project
ViEWS: a political Violence Early Warning SystemAvailable from: 2021-01-13 Created: 2021-01-13 Last updated: 2025-02-01Bibliographically approved

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Vesco, PaolaCroicu, Mihai

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