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ViEWS(2020): Revising and evaluating the ViEWS political Violence Early-Warning System
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. Peace Res Inst Oslo PRIO, Oslo, Norway..ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5076-0994
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. US Naval War Coll, Int Programs Dept, Newport, RI USA..
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. Univ Pittsburgh, Polit Sci, Pittsburgh, PA 15260 USA..
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5372-7129
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2021 (English)In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 58, no 3, p. 599-611Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This article presents an update to the ViEWS political Violence Early-Warning System. This update introduces (1) a new infrastructure for training, evaluating, and weighting models that allows us to more optimally combine constituent models into ensembles, and (2) a number of new forecasting models that contribute to improve overall performance, in particular with respect to effectively classifying high- and low-risk cases. Our improved evaluation procedures allow us to develop models that specialize in either the immediate or the more distant future. We also present a formal, 'retrospective' evaluation of how well ViEWS has done since we started publishing our forecasts from July 2018 up to December 2019. Our metrics show that ViEWS is performing well when compared to previous out-of-sample forecasts for the 2015-17 period. Finally, we present our new forecasts for the January 2020-December 2022 period. We continue to predict a near-constant situation of conflict in Nigeria, Somalia, and DRC, but see some signs of decreased risk in Cameroon and Mozambique.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
SAGE Publications Sage Publications, 2021. Vol. 58, no 3, p. 599-611
Keywords [en]
Africa, armed conflict, ensemble modeling, forecasting, model criticism
National Category
Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalisation Studies)
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-446633DOI: 10.1177/0022343320962157ISI: 000627537500001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-446633DiVA, id: diva2:1571222
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EU, European Research Council, 694640Available from: 2021-06-22 Created: 2021-06-22 Last updated: 2024-01-15Bibliographically approved

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Hegre, HåvardColaresi, MichaelCroicu, MihaiHoyles, FrederickJansen, RemcoLeis, Maxine RiaLindqvist-McGowan, AngelicaRandahl, DavidRød, Espen GeelmuydenVesco, Paola

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Hegre, HåvardColaresi, MichaelCroicu, MihaiHoyles, FrederickJansen, RemcoLeis, Maxine RiaLindqvist-McGowan, AngelicaRandahl, DavidRød, Espen GeelmuydenVesco, Paola
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