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Online Learning for Prediction via Covariance Fitting: Computation, Performance and Robustness
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Mathematics and Computer Science, Department of Information Technology, Division of Systems and Control. Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Mathematics and Computer Science, Department of Information Technology, Automatic control.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2294-004X
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Mathematics and Computer Science, Department of Information Technology, Division of Systems and Control. Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Mathematics and Computer Science, Department of Information Technology, Automatic control.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6698-0166
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Mathematics and Computer Science, Department of Information Technology, Automatic control. Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Mathematics and Computer Science, Department of Information Technology, Division of Systems and Control.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-7957-3711
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Mathematics and Computer Science, Department of Information Technology, Division of Systems and Control. Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Mathematics and Computer Science, Department of Information Technology, Automatic control. Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Mathematics and Computer Science, Department of Information Technology, Artificial Intelligence.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5183-234X
2023 (English)In: Transactions on Machine Learning Research, E-ISSN 2835-8856, no (01/2023Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We consider the online learning of linear smoother predictors based on a covariance model of the outcomes. To control its degrees of freedom in an appropriate manner, the covariance model parameters are often learned using cross-validation or maximum-likelihood techniques. However, neither technique is suitable when training data arrives in a streaming fashion. Here we consider a covariance-fitting method to learn the model parameters, initially used  in spectral estimation. We show that this results in a computation efficient online learning method in which the resulting predictor can be updated sequentially. We prove that, with high probability, its out-of-sample error approaches the minimum achievable level at root-n rate. Moreover, we show that the resulting predictor enjoys two different robustness properties. First, it minimizes the out-of-sample error with respect to the least favourable distribution within a given Wasserstein distance from the empirical distribution. Second, it is robust against errors in the covariate training data. We illustrate the performance of the proposed method in a numerical experiment.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Transactions on Machine Learning Research , 2023. no (01/2023
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics Engineering and Technology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-472451Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105000033546OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-472451DiVA, id: diva2:1651244
Part of project
Counterfactual Prediction Methods for Heterogeneous Populations, Swedish Research CouncilRobust learning methods for out-of-distribution tasks, Swedish Research Council
Funder
Wallenberg AI, Autonomous Systems and Software Program (WASP)Knut and Alice Wallenberg FoundationKjell and Marta Beijer FoundationAvailable from: 2022-04-11 Created: 2022-04-11 Last updated: 2026-02-25Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Robust machine learning methods
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Robust machine learning methods
2022 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

We are surrounded by data in our daily lives. The rent of our houses, the amount of electricity units consumed, the prices of different products at a supermarket, the daily temperature, our medicine prescriptions, our internet search history are all different forms of data. Data can be used in a wide range of applications. For example, one can use data to predict product prices in the future; to predict tomorrow's temperature; to recommend videos; or suggest better prescriptions. However in order to do the above, one is required to learn a model from data. A model is a mathematical description of how the phenomena we are interested in behaves e.g. how does the temperature vary? Is it periodic? What kinds of patterns does it have? Machine learning is about this process of learning models from data by building on disciplines such as statistics and optimization. 

Learning models comes with many different challenges. Some challenges are related to how flexible the model is, some are related to the size of data, some are related to computational efficiency etc. One of the challenges is that of data outliers. For instance, due to war in a country exports could stop and there could be a sudden spike in prices of different products. This sudden jump in prices is an outlier or corruption to the normal situation and must be accounted for when learning the model. Another challenge could be that data is collected in one situation but the model is to be used in another situation. For example, one might have data on vaccine trials where the participants were mostly old people. But one might want to make a decision on whether to use the vaccine or not for the whole population that contains people of all age groups. So one must also account for this difference when learning models because the conclusion drawn may not be valid for the young people in the population. Yet another challenge  could arise when data is collected from different sources or contexts. For example, a shopkeeper might have data on sales of paracetamol when there was flu and when there was no flu and she might want to decide how much paracetamol to stock for the next month. In this situation, it is difficult to know whether there will be a flu next month or not and so deciding on how much to stock is a challenge. This thesis tries to address these and other similar challenges.

In paper I, we address the challenge of data corruption i.e., learning models in a robust way when some fraction of the data is corrupted. In paper II, we apply the methodology of paper I to the problem of localization in wireless networks. Paper III addresses the challenge of estimating causal effect between an exposure and an outcome variable from spatially collected data (e.g. whether increasing number of police personnel in an area reduces number of crimes there). Paper IV addresses the challenge of learning improved decision policies e.g. which treatment to assign to which patient given past data on treatment assignments. In paper V, we look at the challenge of learning models when data is acquired from different contexts and the future context is unknown. In paper VI, we address the challenge of predicting count data across space e.g. number of crimes in an area and quantify its uncertainty. In paper VII, we address the challenge of learning models when data points arrive in a streaming fashion i.e., point by point. The proposed method enables online training and also yields some robustness properties.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Uppsala: Acta Universitatis Upsaliensis, 2022. p. 50
Series
Digital Comprehensive Summaries of Uppsala Dissertations from the Faculty of Science and Technology, ISSN 1651-6214 ; 2147
Keywords
artificial intelligence, machine learning, risk minimization, data corruption, decision policy, conformal methods, data from contexts, online learning, spice, robust, causal inference, point process, localization, distribution uncertainty, treatment rules, quantile treatment, predicting count data
National Category
Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering Signal Processing Probability Theory and Statistics
Research subject
Electrical Engineering with specialization in Signal Processing
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-472453 (URN)978-91-513-1492-1 (ISBN)
Public defence
2022-06-09, 101195, Ångström, Lägerhyddsvägen 1, Uppsala, 13:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2022-05-12 Created: 2022-04-11 Last updated: 2022-06-15

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Osama, MuhammadZachariah, DaveStoica, PeterSchön, Thomas B.

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