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Spatial Strategies for Biodiversity Conservation
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Biology, Department of Ecology and Genetics, Animal ecology.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4722-8497
2022 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Biodiversity is being lost under alarming rates due to an unsustainable socio-economic trajectory causing global change. Such loss is unequally spread over the Earth, and Southern Asia has been and is projected to continue to be one of the most affected regions. Mammalian species play a pivotal role in ecosystem regulation and their disturbance can trigger potential cascading effects. Thus I used several correlative and mechanistic models to increase knowledge on the response of the mammalian community in Southern Asia to global change (Aim 1). In Chapter 1, I found indications that closely related species of small wild cats (Prionailurus spp.) display species-specific responses to climate, land cover and human disturbance. Their habitat suitability is likely following different trends since deep-time. In Chapter 2, macro-scale spatially-explicit mechanistic simulations revealed that six species, including large and medium-sized carnivores and two medium-size herbivores, respond differently to past (1850) and projected future (2100) land-use changes. Some species are likely to benefit from future projected changes, while others may not be viable or see local populations going extinct. In Chapter 4 I also found a local heterogeneous response to forest loss in a community of 31 mammalian species within protected areas in Northeast India. Secondly, I explored the effectiveness of spatial conservation strategies under global change (Aim 2). In Chapter 1, I found low (<10%) and uneven coverage of suitable habitat by protected areas for Prionailurus spp in the Indian subcontinent. In Chapter 4 I found that protected areas reduce forest loss by approximately 20% in 56 protected areas of Northeast India. Finally, I aimed at incorporating ecological dynamics in assessments of global change effects on biodiversity (Aim 3). In Chapter 2 I was able to apply a spatially-explicit mechanistic simulation, including demographic and dispersal processes, to macroscale. I identify that dispersal may play a major role in the projections of some species' response to global change. Chapter 3 goes a step further and identifies that it is already possible to join fully mechanistic simulations of land-use and biodiversity, including bi-directional feedbacks. Such approaches promise the potential for a general mechanistic modeling framework to produce more accurate projections of biodiversity change.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Uppsala: Acta Universitatis Upsaliensis, 2022. , p. 47
Series
Digital Comprehensive Summaries of Uppsala Dissertations from the Faculty of Science and Technology, ISSN 1651-6214 ; 2167
Keywords [en]
global change, Southern Asia, mammals, ecological modelling
National Category
Ecology
Research subject
Biology with specialization in Animal Conservation
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-481039ISBN: 978-91-513-1551-5 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-481039DiVA, id: diva2:1685043
Public defence
2022-09-16, Ekmansalen, EBC, Norbyvägen 18d, Uppsala, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2022-08-26 Created: 2022-08-01 Last updated: 2022-10-06
List of papers
1. Closely related species show species-specific environmental responses and different spatial conservation needs: Prionailurus cats in the Indian subcontinent
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Closely related species show species-specific environmental responses and different spatial conservation needs: Prionailurus cats in the Indian subcontinent
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2020 (English)In: Scientific Reports, E-ISSN 2045-2322, Vol. 10, article id 18705Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Phylogenetically closely related species are often assumed to have similar responses to environmental conditions, but species-specific responses have also been described. These two scenarios may have different conservation implications. We tested these two hypotheses for Prionailurus cats (P. rubiginosus, P. bengalensis, P. viverrinus) in the Indian subcontinent and show its implications on species current protected area coverage and climatic suitability trends through time. We fitted ecological niche models with current environmental conditions and calculated niche overlap. In addition, we developed a model for the Jungle Cat Felis chaus to compare species responses and niche overlap estimates within Prionailurus with those for a related sympatric small cat species. Then we estimated the proportion of current suitable environment covered by protected area and projected climatic models from past (last interglacial) to future (2070; RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) conditions to show implications on population management and conservation. The hypothesis of a similar response and niche overlap among closely related species is not supported. Protected area coverage was lowest for P. viverrinus (mean=0.071, SD=0.012) and highest for P. bengalensis (mean=0.088, SD=0.006). In addition, the proportion of the subcontinent with suitable climate varied through time and was species-specific. For P. bengalensis, climatic suitability shrunk since at least the mid-Holocene, a trend that can be intensified by human-induced climate warming. Concerning P. viverrinus, most predictions show stable future climatic suitability, but a few indicated potential loss. Climatic suitability for P. rubiginous was predicted to remain stable but the species exhibited a negative association with intensive agriculture. Similar responses to environmental change by phylogenetically closely related species should not be assumed and have implications on protected area coverage and natural trends of species climatic suitability over time. This should be taken into account during conservation and management actions.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
NATURE RESEARCH, 2020
National Category
Ecology Zoology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-428052 (URN)10.1038/s41598-020-74684-8 (DOI)000591916900004 ()33127966 (PubMedID)
Available from: 2020-12-14 Created: 2020-12-14 Last updated: 2022-09-15Bibliographically approved
2. Land-use effects on Southern Asian mammals from 1850 to 2100 based on ecological dynamics
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Land-use effects on Southern Asian mammals from 1850 to 2100 based on ecological dynamics
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(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
National Category
Ecology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-481018 (URN)
Available from: 2022-07-31 Created: 2022-07-31 Last updated: 2022-08-01
3. The road to integrate climate change effects on land-use change in regional biodiversity models
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The road to integrate climate change effects on land-use change in regional biodiversity models
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(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
National Category
Ecology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-481020 (URN)
Available from: 2022-07-31 Created: 2022-07-31 Last updated: 2022-08-01
4. Increasing forest loss influences mammal communities within protected areas in Northeast India
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Increasing forest loss influences mammal communities within protected areas in Northeast India
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(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
National Category
Ecology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-481019 (URN)
Available from: 2022-07-31 Created: 2022-07-31 Last updated: 2022-08-01

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