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The use of global data to uncover how humans shape flood and drought risk
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Air, Water and Landscape Sciences.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9359-6218
2023 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Description
Abstract [en]

The human consequences of flood and drought disasters are widespread and detrimental. Large-scale studies, drawing on global geodata products and international databases, can systematically examine how anthropogenic megatrends shape disaster risk and test the generalisability of findings from other scientific methodologies. However, the top-down lens of these global studies often misses the pivotal role that human societies play in shaping disaster risk, including how water management influences physical hazards and how political factors shape social vulnerability. It is precisely this tension – characterised by the need for global perspectives alongside the need to incorporate human influences in the study of disaster risk – that motivates my research.

This thesis specifically examines how observations from global data can leverage our understanding of how humans shape hydrological disaster risk, in terms of the hazard, human exposure and social vulnerability. To this end, the thesis draws on multiple methodologies across four individual studies, including one scoping review and three quantitative geospatial studies. The findings of this thesis provide insights into 1) how the landscape of global data shapes disaster studies and 2) how human societies shape disaster risk.

For the former, my thesis shows that key data opportunities and challenges vary across disaster types and risk dimensions. Addressing each of these limitations is important because of the interrelated nature of disaster risk. The thesis also underlines how the pursuit of transforming fragmented disaster knowledge into holistic and useful information would encounter fewer obstacles if the global datasets were more integrated or, at the very least, more compatible. Databases recording past disaster losses serve as a natural place for such an integration.

For the latter, this thesis brings to light the heterogeneous impact that large-scale infrastructure projects can have on disaster risk, by showing that river regulation does not serve as a universal solution for reducing long-term drought risk. The thesis also highlights the central role of human exposure and economic inequality in shaping human losses during severe flood disasters. Taken together, this underlines the importance of addressing root causes of vulnerability to reduce fatalities during disasters.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Uppsala: Acta Universitatis Upsaliensis, 2023. , p. 61
Series
Digital Comprehensive Summaries of Uppsala Dissertations from the Faculty of Science and Technology, ISSN 1651-6214 ; 2279
Keywords [en]
natural hazards, hydrological disasters, environmental geography, global geospatial data, international databases, disaster losses, disaster consequences, water management, dams and reservoirs, floodplains, hydrological drought, social vulnerability, economic inequality, Anthropocene
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Earth Science with specialization in Environmental Analysis
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-504010ISBN: 978-91-513-1835-6 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-504010DiVA, id: diva2:1767235
Public defence
2023-09-08, Hambergsalen, Geocentrum, Villavägen 16, Uppsala, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Funder
EU, Horizon 2020, 771678Available from: 2023-08-16 Created: 2023-06-13 Last updated: 2023-08-16
List of papers
1. A review of freely accessible global datasets for the study of floods, droughts and their interactions with human societies
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A review of freely accessible global datasets for the study of floods, droughts and their interactions with human societies
2020 (English)In: WIREs Water, E-ISSN 2049-1948, Vol. 7, no 3, article id e1424Article, review/survey (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The availability of planetary-scale geospatial datasets that can support the study of water-related disasters in the Anthropocene is rapidly growing. We review 124 global and free datasets allowing spatial (and temporal) analyses of floods, droughts and their interactions with human societies. Our collection of datasets is available in a descriptive list for download at . The purpose of providing an overview of datasets across a wide range of hydrological and socioeconomic variables is to highlight research opportunities across scientific disciplines for the study of the water-society interplay. Our collection of datasets confirms that the availability of geospatial data capturing hydrological hazards and exposure is far more mature than those capturing vulnerability aspects. We do not only highlight the unprecedented opportunities associated with these global datasets for the study of water-related disasters in the Anthropocene, but also discuss the challenges associated with their exploitation. These challenges include: (a) time varying datasets advised not to be used in time series analyses; (b) fine spatial resolution datasets advised not to be used in local scale studies; (c), datasets built by a wide variety of data sources prohibiting systematic uncertainty assessments; and (d) datasets built by covariate variables preventing interaction studies.

Keywords
disaster risk, droughts, Earth observation, floods, open geodata
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-412340 (URN)10.1002/wat2.1424 (DOI)000530332500010 ()
Funder
EU, Horizon 2020, 771678
Available from: 2020-06-12 Created: 2020-06-12 Last updated: 2023-06-13Bibliographically approved
2. The two-faced impact of dams and reservoirs on hydrological drought
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The two-faced impact of dams and reservoirs on hydrological drought
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Rivers around the world are increasingly regulated by dams and reservoirs. As a result, hydrological drought conditions are more and more characterised by a complex anthropogenic dimension. Understanding how human activities influence the propagation of drought is particularly crucial in the face of climatic and societal changes. In this work, we explore how large dams change the way in which atmospheric water deficit propagates through river basins and result (or not) in hydrological drought. To this end, we analysed geocoded records of 15 large dams in five countries with weather and streamflow observations. Our study reveals a heterogeneous pattern of dam-induced drought propagation shifts. A slight majority of the dams reduced the duration of hydrological drought (i.e. below-normal river flows) compared to the unregulated state. However, most dams contributed to an increased streamflow deficit, both in terms of the median deficit per event and the total deficit over a 10-year period. Our findings also highlight the presence of dams that severely exacerbated hydrological drought conditions downstream, as indicated by more frequent, longer, and more intense drought events. This study significantly contributes to the existing literature showing that river regulation through dams is by no means a panacea for reducing drought risk.

Keywords
drought, streamflows, dams, reservoirs, water management, infrastructure
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Hydrology; Natural Resources and Sustainable Development; Earth Science with specialization in Environmental Analysis
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-503767 (URN)
Funder
EU, Horizon 2020, 771678
Available from: 2023-06-08 Created: 2023-06-08 Last updated: 2023-06-13Bibliographically approved
3. Global riverine flood risk - how do hydrogeomorphic floodplain maps compare to flood hazard maps?
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Global riverine flood risk - how do hydrogeomorphic floodplain maps compare to flood hazard maps?
2021 (English)In: Natural hazards and earth system sciences, ISSN 1561-8633, E-ISSN 1684-9981, Vol. 21, no 10, p. 2921-2948Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Riverine flood risk studies often require the identification of areas prone to potential flooding. This modelling process can be based on either (hydrologically derived) flood hazard maps or (topography-based) hydrogeomorphic floodplain maps. In this paper, we derive and compare riverine flood exposure from three global products: a hydrogeomorphic floodplain map (GFPLAIN250m, hereinafter GFPLAIN) and two flood hazard maps (Flood Hazard Map of the World by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre, hereinafter JRC, and the flood hazard maps produced for the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2015, hereinafter GAR). We find an average spatial agreement between these maps of around 30 % at the river basin level on a global scale. This agreement is highly variable across model combinations and geographic conditions, influenced by climatic humidity, river volume, topography, and coastal proximity. Contrary to expectations, the agreement between the two flood hazard maps is lower compared to their agreement with the hydrogeomorphic floodplain map. We also map riverine flood exposure for 26 countries across the global south by intersecting these maps with three human population maps (Global Human Settlement population grid, hereinafter GHS; High Resolution Settlement Layer, hereinafter HRSL; and WorldPop). The findings of this study indicate that hydrogeomorphic floodplain maps can be a valuable way of producing high-resolution maps of flood-prone zones to support riverine flood risk studies, but caution should be taken in regions that are dry, steep, very flat, or near the coast.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Copernicus PublicationsCopernicus GmbH, 2021
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-457917 (URN)10.5194/nhess-21-2921-2021 (DOI)000703890000001 ()
Funder
EU, Horizon 2020, 771678
Available from: 2021-11-05 Created: 2021-11-05 Last updated: 2024-01-15Bibliographically approved
4. The wider the gap between rich and poor the higher the flood mortality
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The wider the gap between rich and poor the higher the flood mortality
Show others...
2023 (English)In: Nature Sustainability, E-ISSN 2398-9629, Vol. 6, no 8, p. 995-1005Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Economic inequality is rising within many countries globally, and this can significantly influence the social vulnerability to natural hazards. We analysed income inequality and flood disasters in 67 middle- and high-income countries between 1990 and 2018 and found that unequal countries tend to suffer more flood fatalities. This study integrates geocoded mortality records from 573 major flood disasters with population and economic data to perform generalized linear mixed regression modelling. Our results show that the significant association between income inequality and flood mortality persists after accounting for the per-capita real gross domestic product, population size in flood-affected regions and other potentially confounding variables. The protective effect of increasing gross domestic product disappeared when accounting for income inequality and population size in flood-affected regions. On the basis of our results, we argue that the increasingly uneven distribution of wealth deserves more attention within international disaster-risk research and policy arenas.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer Nature, 2023
Keywords
flood mortality, disasters, income distribution, inequality, sustainable development
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Earth Science with specialization in Environmental Analysis; Geography; Hydrology; Natural Resources and Sustainable Development
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-503775 (URN)10.1038/s41893-023-01107-7 (DOI)000970707500001 ()2-s2.0-85153111959 (Scopus ID)
Funder
EU, Horizon 2020, 771678
Available from: 2023-06-08 Created: 2023-06-08 Last updated: 2026-02-16Bibliographically approved

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