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Day-ahead probabilistic forecasting at a co-located wind and solar power park in Sweden: Trading and forecast verification
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Technology, Department of Civil and Industrial Engineering, Civil Engineering and Built Environment.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-3757-6815
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Technology, Department of Civil and Industrial Engineering, Civil Engineering and Built Environment.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-6586-4932
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Air, Water and Landscape Sciences.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5443-3173
Mines Paris, PSL University, Centre for processes, renewable energy and energy systems (PERSEE), Sophia Antipolis 06904, France.
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2023 (English)In: Advances in Applied Energy, ISSN 2666-7924, Vol. 9, article id 100120Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper presents a first step in the field of probabilistic forecasting of co-located wind and photovoltaic (PV) parks. The effect of aggregation is analyzed with respect to forecast accuracy and value at a co-located park in Sweden using roughly three years of data. We use a fixed modelling framework where we post-process numerical weather predictions to calibrated probabilistic production forecasts, which is a prerequisite when placing optimal bids in the day-ahead market. The results show that aggregation improves forecast accuracy in terms of continuous ranked probability score, interval score and quantile score when compared to wind or PV power forecasts alone. The optimal aggregation ratio is found to be 50%–60% wind power and the remainder PV power. This is explained by the aggregated time series being smoother, which improves the calibration and produces sharper predictive distributions, especially during periods of high variability in both resources, i.e., most prominently in the summer, spring and fall. Furthermore, the daily variability of wind and PV power generation was found to be anti-correlated which proved to be beneficial when forecasting the aggregated time series. Finally, we show that probabilistic forecasts of co-located production improve trading in the day-ahead market, where the more accurate and sharper forecasts reduce balancing costs. In conclusion, the study indicates that co-locating wind and PV power parks can improve probabilistic forecasts which, furthermore, carry over to electricity market trading. The results from the study should be generally applicable to other co-located parks in similar climates.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2023. Vol. 9, article id 100120
Keywords [en]
Forecast value, Quantile forecasts, PV power, Wind power, Hybrid power park, Probabilistic forecasting
National Category
Energy Systems
Research subject
Engineering Science with specialization in Civil Engineering and Built Environment
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-505450DOI: 10.1016/j.adapen.2022.100120ISI: 001040762600001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-505450DiVA, id: diva2:1770882
Funder
Swedish Energy AgencyEU, Horizon 2020, 864337Available from: 2023-06-20 Created: 2023-06-20 Last updated: 2025-02-17Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Analysis, Forecasting and Optimization of Utility-Scale Hybrid Wind and Solar Power Parks
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Analysis, Forecasting and Optimization of Utility-Scale Hybrid Wind and Solar Power Parks
2024 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The increasing share of intermittent and non-dispatchable power sources such as wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) power in the electrical energy generation mix pose operational challenges in the electric power system and corresponding markets. Co-locating wind and PV power parks, forming utility-scale hybrid power parks (HPPs), means that the power sources can share grid connection, land, permitting procedures as well as operation and maintenance work. According to the results of the thesis, the power output of co-located wind and PV power parks are generally negatively correlated, which results in a smoothed aggregated power output. The seasonal and diurnal time scales contribute the most to the negative correlation, where wind power parks are likely to be more negatively correlated than any randomly chosen site. The smoothing effect as a result of aggregation is also studied in terms of probabilistic forecasting, which corresponds to estimating the uncertainty of power production predictions by means of a probabilistic distribution. By forecasting co-located wind and PV power production, the probabilistic forecasts can be improved, which is explained by the aggregated time series being smoother and therefore more straightforward to predict. The value of improved forecasts is also realized in the day-ahead market, where sharper and more reliable probabilistic forecasts improve decision making by lowering imbalance costs. Furthermore, when trading energy from HPPs with storage, probabilistic forecasts reduce the energy throughput of the battery and is preferable over a deterministic model when the regulating prices are more difficult to forecast than the spot-prices, and when the battery energy capacity is low. Finally, a techno-economic simulation model to assess and forecast the potential to retrofit existing wind power parks with PV power parks was developed. Retrofitting means that a PV power park is connected behind the same point of interconnection to the electricity grid as an existing wind power park. Results show that the curtailment losses from retrofitting are small (max. 3.5% of PV power generation with over 100% added capacity) due to the complementary characteristics of the power sources. On top of this, the most influential resource-related site characteristics for a profitable investment from retrofitting are, in their order of importance; high PV power capacity factor, low wind power capacity factor, and strong negative correlation between PV and wind power production. By estimating these three variables, a forecast of the expected income from retrofitting at any given site can be estimated using a simple regression model.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Uppsala: Acta Universitatis Upsaliensis, 2024. p. 116
Series
Digital Comprehensive Summaries of Uppsala Dissertations from the Faculty of Science and Technology, ISSN 1651-6214 ; 2439
Keywords
co-located, aggregated, wind, photovoltaic, storage, probabilistic, trading, Nordic
National Category
Energy Systems
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-536810 (URN)978-91-513-2210-0 (ISBN)
Public defence
2024-10-11, Lecure hall Heinz-Otto Kreiss, Ångströmlaboratoriet, Lägerhyddsvägen 2, 13:15 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2024-09-19 Created: 2024-08-23 Last updated: 2024-09-19

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Lindberg, OskarLingfors, DavidArnqvist, JohanMunkhammar, Joakim

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