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Analysis of large-scale energy retrofit of residential buildings and their impact on the electricity grid using a validated UBEM
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Technology, Department of Civil and Industrial Engineering, Civil Engineering and Built Environment.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8343-3327
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Technology, Department of Civil and Industrial Engineering, Civil Engineering and Built Environment.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-3757-6815
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Technology, Department of Civil and Industrial Engineering, Civil Engineering and Built Environment.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0226-1282
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Technology, Department of Civil and Industrial Engineering, Civil Engineering and Built Environment.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0907-1270
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2024 (English)In: Applied Energy, ISSN 0306-2619, E-ISSN 1872-9118, Vol. 361, article id 122937Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

To evaluate the effects of different energy retrofit scenarios on the residential building sector, in this study, an urban building energy model (UBEM) was developed from open data, calibrated using energy performance certificates (EPCs), and validated against hourly electricity use measurement data. The calibrated and validated UBEM was used for implementing energy retrofit scenarios and improving the energy performance of the case study city of Varberg, Sweden. Additionally, possible consequences of the scenarios on the electricity grid were also evaluated in this study. The results showed that for a calibrated UBEM, the MAPE of the simulated versus delivered energy to the buildings was 26 %. Although the model was calibrated based on annual values from some of the buildings with EPCs, the validation ensured that it could produce reliable results for different spatial and temporal levels than calibrated for. Furthermore, the validation proved that the spatial aggregation over the city and temporal aggregation over the year could considerably improve the results. The implementation of the energy retrofit scenarios using the calibrated and validated UBEM resulted in a 43 % reduction of the energy use in residential buildings renovated based on the Passive House standard. If this was combined with the generation of on-site solar energy, except for the densely populated areas of the city, it was possible to reach near zero (and in some cases positive) energy districts. The results of grid simulation and power flow analysis for a chosen low-voltage distribution network indicated that energy retrofitting of buildings could lead to an increase in voltage by a maximum of 7 %. This particularly suggests that there is a possibility of occasional overvoltages when the generation and use of electricity are not in perfect balance.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2024. Vol. 361, article id 122937
Keywords [en]
Urban building energy modeling, Large-scale energy retrofit, Net zero energy districts, Model validation, Grid analysis
National Category
Energy Systems Energy Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-508079DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.122937ISI: 001221470800001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-508079DiVA, id: diva2:1783202
Funder
SOLVEAvailable from: 2023-07-19 Created: 2023-07-19 Last updated: 2024-05-27Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Urban Building Energy Modeling for Retrofit Scenarios: Development, Calibration, Validation and Implementation for Swedish Residential Buildings
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Urban Building Energy Modeling for Retrofit Scenarios: Development, Calibration, Validation and Implementation for Swedish Residential Buildings
2023 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The necessity for an accelerated transition of urban energy systems and, in particular, the building sector toward energy efficiency and carbon neutrality poses new challenges to planning and retrofitting existing buildings. To cope with these challenges, so-called urban building energy models (UBEMs) have been introduced for quantifying the energy demand in the building sector, identifying the hot spots of energy use and suggesting scenarios for retrofitting the buildings. Methods for developing an UBEM vary. In this thesis, based on a comprehensive review of the state of the art, an approach to the development of an automated simplified UBEM using open-access data from Swedish residential buildings was taken. The developed model makes use of building-level geo-referenced energy performance certificate (EPC) data to automatically form simplified single-zone models of buildings which are one-by-one simulated by the building energy simulation software EnergyPlus. The UBEM also includes energy retrofit scenarios for improving the energy efficiency of energy-intensive buildings based on the latest Swedish building codes, the Passive House standards as well as net zero energy buildings.

The choice of simulation software and modeling complexity was made based on the results of this thesis proving that EnergyPlus was the most suitable software for handling large-scale building energy models efficiently. The results also showed that the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of a simplified single-zone model from a detailed multi-zone model is only 6 %. This error becomes marginal when the spatial aggregation of the results increases. With the calibration of the model using the EPCs, the accuracy of the model improved considerably. The MAPE of the simulated annual energy demand from the actual energy performance of the buildings was reduced from 78 % to 26 %, for the case study city of Borlänge. The validation of the model for independent sources of hourly, and monthly energy measurement data as well as EPCs proved the reliability and applicability of the model for being used for other cities or other temporal resolutions than those that it was calibrated for. Implementation of the UBEM and the energy retrofit scenarios in the city of Varberg, Sweden, resulted in improved energy efficiency of the city, i.e., the residential building sector, to the extent that the minimum requirements for net zero energy were met for several city districts.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Uppsala: Acta Universitatis Upsaliensis, 2023. p. 105
Series
Digital Comprehensive Summaries of Uppsala Dissertations from the Faculty of Science and Technology, ISSN 1651-6214 ; 2286
Keywords
Urban building energy modeling, Urban building energy retrofit, Urban energy system, Urban energy planning, Energy performance certificate, Energy efficiency, low-energy cities
National Category
Energy Engineering Energy Systems
Research subject
Engineering Science with specialization in Civil Engineering and Built Environment
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-508080 (URN)978-91-513-1849-3 (ISBN)
Public defence
2023-09-15, Sonja Lyttkens, Ångströmlaboratoriet, Lägerhyddsvägen 1, Uppsala, 13:15 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2023-08-23 Created: 2023-07-21 Last updated: 2023-08-23

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Johari, FatemehLindberg, OskarRamadhani, Umar HanifShadram, FarshidMunkhammar, JoakimWidén, Joakim

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