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Resilience to extreme storm conditions: A comparative study of two power systems with varying dependencies on offshore wind
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Technology, Department of Electrical Engineering, Electricity. Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science (CNDS), Uppsala, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-9868-0571
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Technology, Department of Electrical Engineering, Electricity. Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science (CNDS), Uppsala, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9213-6447
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Technology, Department of Electrical Engineering, Electricity.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7828-8516
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Technology, Department of Electrical Engineering, Electricity. Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science (CNDS), Uppsala, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8509-512X
2024 (English)In: Results in Engineering (RINENG), ISSN 2590-1230, Vol. 23, article id 102408Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In the next decades, the dependencies on power production from renewable energy sources are expected to increase dramatically. A transition towards large-scale offshore wind farms together with an increased electrification of the industry and transportation sectors introduces new vulnerabilities to society. Further, extreme weather events are expected to increase in intensity and frequency, driven by climate change. However, there are significant knowledge gaps concerning the impacts of severe weather conditions on the resilience of power systems with large dependencies on offshore wind. In the present study, a comparison between two different power systems’ resilience to historical extreme storm conditions has been conducted. The power systems are the IEEE39-bus New England model and the Great Britain model. The results show significant differences between the two power systems, which underlying reasons are analysed and explained. With an offshore wind penetration level of 30 %, the New England model stays intact in terms of connected load. When increasing the penetration level to 40 %, about 10 % of the total connected load gets disconnected, whereas about 33 % of the load gets disconnected with a penetration level of 50 %. The Great Britain model stays intact in terms of connected load with a penetration level of at least 49 %.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2024. Vol. 23, article id 102408
Keywords [en]
Extreme weather event, Offshore wind, Power system, Resilience
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering Energy Systems
Research subject
Electrical Engineering with specialization in Systems Analysis
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-511255DOI: 10.1016/j.rineng.2024.102408ISI: 001256959100001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-511255DiVA, id: diva2:1795876
Funder
J. Gust. Richert stiftelse, 2022-00758Available from: 2023-09-11 Created: 2023-09-11 Last updated: 2026-04-21Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Power Grid Resilience to High Impact Low Probability Events
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Power Grid Resilience to High Impact Low Probability Events
2023 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The electrification of societies and the decarbonisation of electricity production are changing energy systems worldwide. A fast transition towards the replacement of fossil fuels by intermittent renewable energy sources is expected in the next decades to combat climate change. A significant share of the produced electricity is likely to be generated from offshore wind farms, due to the abundant wind resources in the offshore regions and the lack of available onshore sites. However, increased electricity dependence in combination with expanded offshore wind power generation introduce new vulnerabilities to the society. Specifically, the effects of high impact low probability (HILP) events are considered as potential threats to the power system, not least because of the increasing number of extreme weather events. Therefore, research on power grid vulnerability and power system resilience to HILP events are of significant interest.

This thesis presents results of studies investigating power grid vulnerability from a topological perspective, and resilience to storm conditions of power systems with varying dependencies on offshore wind. To achieve this, methods based on complex network theory and AC power flow analysis have been developed, tested, and evaluated. Further, geospatial wind data from historical extreme storm events have been used to generate realistic power production profiles from hypothetical offshore wind farms.

The results strengthen that complex network concepts can be used successfully in the context of power grid vulnerability analysis. Further, the results show that the resilience of power systems with large dependencies on offshore wind differ vastly depending on the grid properties and control strategies, which are further discussed in this thesis.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Uppsala: Uppsala University, 2023. p. 54
Keywords
Extreme weather, HILP events, offshore wind, power grid, resilience, vulnerability
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Research subject
Electrical Engineering with specialization in Systems Analysis
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-512049 (URN)
Presentation
2023-11-10, Evelyn Sokolowski, Ångströmlaboratoriet, Lägerhyddsvägen 1, Uppsala, 10:15 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2023-10-11 Created: 2023-09-22 Last updated: 2024-06-17Bibliographically approved
2. Power System Resilience to Extreme Weather Events and Malicious Attacks
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Power System Resilience to Extreme Weather Events and Malicious Attacks
2026 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Energy systems worldwide are undergoing fundamental changes driven by efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Fossil fuels are expected to be gradually replaced by intermittent renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, and wave power in order to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions. In parallel, substantial investments in power grid infrastructure are being made to meet the growing demand resulting from the electrification of industrial processes, transportation, and digitalisation, among other sectors. At the same time, power systems are facing challenges related to external threats, including extreme weather events and malicious attacks, which are increasing in frequency due to climate change and an uncertain geopolitical security landscape. Consequently, research on power system vulnerability and resilience to external threats, and how an increasing share of renewable energy sources affects these characteristics, is of high interest.

In this thesis, results from studies evaluating power system vulnerability and resilience are presented. Vulnerability is analysed from a topological perspective using methods based on complex network theory. Resilience to extreme weather events and malicious attacks is assessed by applying methods based on AC power flow models. Also, to provide a broader perspective on renewable power generation, a techno-economic assessment of offshore hybrid power parks is presented.

The findings of the studies strengthen the applicability of complex network theory for analysing power grid vulnerability. Moreover, the results show that the resilience of power systems with a high dependence on offshore wind power varies substantially based on grid characteristics and control strategies. The results also show that replacing conventional generators with wind power can increase the system's resilience to transmission line outages, which may result from extreme weather or malicious attacks. Furthermore, the results show that co-location of offshore renewable energy technologies can yield cost efficiencies even when the negative correlation between their generation profiles is weak.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Uppsala: Acta Universitatis Upsaliensis, 2026. p. 84
Series
Digital Comprehensive Summaries of Uppsala Dissertations from the Faculty of Science and Technology, ISSN 1651-6214 ; 2688
Keywords
Extreme weather event, malicious attack, modelling, power system, renewable energy sources, resilience, simulation, vulnerability
National Category
Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Research subject
Engineering Science with specialization in Science of Electricity
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-584608 (URN)978-91-513-2856-0 (ISBN)
Public defence
2026-06-12, Heinz-Otto Kreiss, Regementsvägen 10, Uppsala, 09:15 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2026-05-20 Created: 2026-04-21 Last updated: 2026-05-20

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