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Advances and gaps in the science and practice of impact‐based forecasting of droughts
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Air, Water and Landscape Sciences. Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science (CNDS), Uppsala, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0492-7407
European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Reading, UK.
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Norrköping, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3416-317X
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Air, Water and Landscape Sciences. Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science (CNDS), Uppsala, Sweden; Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2032-5211
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2024 (English)In: WIREs Water, E-ISSN 2049-1948, Vol. 11, no 2, article id e1698Article, review/survey (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Advances in impact modeling and numerical weather forecasting have allowed accurate drought monitoring and skilful forecasts that can drive decisions at the regional scale. State-of-the-art drought early-warning systems are currently based on statistical drought indicators, which do not account for dynamic regional vulnerabilities, and hence neglect the socio-economic impact for initiating actions. The transition from conventional physical forecasts of droughts toward impact-based forecasting (IbF) is a recent paradigm shift in early warning services, to ultimately bridge the gap between science and action. The demand to generate predictions of “what the weather will do” underpins the rising interest in drought IbF across all weather-sensitive sectors. Despite the large expected socio-economic benefits, migrating to this new paradigm presents myriad challenges. In this article, we provide a comprehensive overview of drought IbF, outlining the progress made in the field. Additionally, we present a road map highlighting current challenges and limitations in the science and practice of drought IbF and possible ways forward. We identify seven scientific and practical challenges/limitations: the contextual challenge (inadequate accounting for the spatio-sectoral dynamics of vulnerability and exposure), the human-water feedbacks challenge (neglecting how human activities influence the propagation of drought), the typology challenge (oversimplifying drought typology to meteorological), the model challenge (reliance on mainstream machine learning models), and the data challenge (mainly textual) with the linked sectoral and geographical limitations. Our vision is to facilitate the progress of drought IbF and its use in making informed and timely decisions on mitigation measures, thus minimizing the drought impacts globally.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
John Wiley & Sons, 2024. Vol. 11, no 2, article id e1698
Keywords [en]
drought, drought impact-based forecasting, early action, early warning systems, impacts of drought
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Earth Science with specialization in Environmental Analysis
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-515528DOI: 10.1002/wat2.1698ISI: 001095800600001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-515528DiVA, id: diva2:1809744
Funder
EU, European Research Council, 948601EU, European Research Council, 771678EU, Horizon 2020, 956396Swedish Research Council, 2022-03448EU, European Research Council, 101112727EU, Horizon 2020, 101037293EU, Horizon 2020, 101003876EU, Horizon 2020, 101093864Available from: 2023-11-06 Created: 2023-11-06 Last updated: 2025-08-26Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. On seasonal predictability of droughts and their impacts: Bridging science and operational applications
Open this publication in new window or tab >>On seasonal predictability of droughts and their impacts: Bridging science and operational applications
2025 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Droughts are among the most complex and least understood natural hazards, with impacts that are often delayed, diffuse, and deeply context-dependent. Despite advances in hydro-meteorological forecasting, a persistent gap remains between the detection of drought conditions and the anticipation of their societal consequences. This thesis addresses this gap by advancing the science and operational potential of impact-based forecasting for droughts.

This work combined conceptual synthesis, statistical analysis, and machine learning to explore the relationships between drought indicators and sector-specific impacts across Europe and India. First, a structured overview of the current state of the art and practical challenges is provided. Then, drought indicators are related to observed impacts to assess their predictability across Europe using seasonal forecasts. Lastly, a pre-season forecasting framework for crop yield in India is developed and evaluated to explore the feasibility of anticipatory impact prediction at district level.

The findings show that indicator–impact relationships are highly variable across space, time, and sectors, and that even modest improvements in forecast skill can yield meaningful benefits for early action. By integrating seasonal forecasts with impact-relevant indicators, this thesis contributes to the development of more actionable, context-specific early warning systems. It also highlights the need for co-produced, user-centred approaches that bridge the gap between climate signals and real-world decisions.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Uppsala: Acta Universitatis Upsaliensis, 2025. p. 69
Series
Digital Comprehensive Summaries of Uppsala Dissertations from the Faculty of Science and Technology, ISSN 1651-6214 ; 2560
Keywords
drought, natural hazards, hydrological risk, climate change, extreme weather, drought indicators, early warning systems, drought impacts, seasonal forecasting
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Earth Science with specialization in Environmental Analysis
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-564240 (URN)978-91-513-2538-5 (ISBN)
Public defence
2025-09-26, Hambergsalen, Uppsala, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2025-09-02 Created: 2025-07-30 Last updated: 2025-09-02

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Shyrokaya, AnastasiyaMessori, GabrieleKhatami, SinaDi Baldassarre, Giuliano

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