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Significant relationships between drought indicators and impacts for the 2018-2019 drought in Germany
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Air, Water and Landscape Sciences. Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden..
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Air, Water and Landscape Sciences. Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden.;Stockholm Univ, Dept Meteorol, Stockholm, Sweden.;Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, Stockholm, Sweden..ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2032-5211
Swedish Meteorol & Hydrol Inst SMHI, Norrköping, Sweden..
European Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF, Reading, England..
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2024 (English)In: Environmental Research Letters, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 19, no 1, article id 014037Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Despite the scientific progress in drought detection and forecasting, it remains challenging to accurately predict the corresponding impact of a drought event. This is due to the complex relationships between (multiple) drought indicators and adverse impacts across different places/hydroclimatic conditions, sectors, and spatiotemporal scales. In this study, we explored these relationships by analyzing the impacts of the severe 2018-2019 central European drought event in Germany. We first computed the standardized precipitation index (SPI), the standardized precipitation evaporation index (SPEI), the standardized soil moisture index (SSMI) and the standardized streamflow index (SSFI) over various accumulation periods, and then related these indicators to sectorial losses from the European drought impact report inventory (EDII) and media sources. To cope with the uncertainty associated with both drought indicators and impact data, we developed a fuzzy method to categorize them. Lastly, we applied the method at the region level (EU NUTS1) by correlating monthly time series. Our findings revealed strong and significant relationships between drought indicators and impacts over different accumulation periods, albeit in some cases region-specific and time-variant. Furthermore, our analysis established the interconnectedness between various sectors, which displayed systematically co-occurring impacts. As such, our work provides a new framework to explore drought indicators-impacts dependencies across space, time, sectors, and scales. In addition, it emphasizes the need to leverage available impact data to better forecast drought impacts.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Institute of Physics Publishing (IOPP), 2024. Vol. 19, no 1, article id 014037
Keywords [en]
drought, drought indicators, impacts of drought, 2018-2019 European drought, drought early warning systems
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-519113DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad10d9ISI: 001121392900001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-519113DiVA, id: diva2:1823845
Funder
Swedish Research Council, 2022-03448EU, European Research Council, 101112727EU, Horizon 2020, 956396EU, Horizon 2020, 101003876EU, European Research Council, 771678EU, Horizon 2020, 101121192Available from: 2024-01-03 Created: 2024-01-03 Last updated: 2025-08-26Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. On seasonal predictability of droughts and their impacts: Bridging science and operational applications
Open this publication in new window or tab >>On seasonal predictability of droughts and their impacts: Bridging science and operational applications
2025 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Droughts are among the most complex and least understood natural hazards, with impacts that are often delayed, diffuse, and deeply context-dependent. Despite advances in hydro-meteorological forecasting, a persistent gap remains between the detection of drought conditions and the anticipation of their societal consequences. This thesis addresses this gap by advancing the science and operational potential of impact-based forecasting for droughts.

This work combined conceptual synthesis, statistical analysis, and machine learning to explore the relationships between drought indicators and sector-specific impacts across Europe and India. First, a structured overview of the current state of the art and practical challenges is provided. Then, drought indicators are related to observed impacts to assess their predictability across Europe using seasonal forecasts. Lastly, a pre-season forecasting framework for crop yield in India is developed and evaluated to explore the feasibility of anticipatory impact prediction at district level.

The findings show that indicator–impact relationships are highly variable across space, time, and sectors, and that even modest improvements in forecast skill can yield meaningful benefits for early action. By integrating seasonal forecasts with impact-relevant indicators, this thesis contributes to the development of more actionable, context-specific early warning systems. It also highlights the need for co-produced, user-centred approaches that bridge the gap between climate signals and real-world decisions.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Uppsala: Acta Universitatis Upsaliensis, 2025. p. 69
Series
Digital Comprehensive Summaries of Uppsala Dissertations from the Faculty of Science and Technology, ISSN 1651-6214 ; 2560
Keywords
drought, natural hazards, hydrological risk, climate change, extreme weather, drought indicators, early warning systems, drought impacts, seasonal forecasting
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Earth Science with specialization in Environmental Analysis
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-564240 (URN)978-91-513-2538-5 (ISBN)
Public defence
2025-09-26, Hambergsalen, Uppsala, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2025-09-02 Created: 2025-07-30 Last updated: 2025-09-02

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Shyrokaya, AnastasiyaMessori, GabrieleDi Baldassarre, Giuliano

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