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Thinking systemically about climate services: Using archetypes to reveal maladaptation
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science (CNDS), Uppsala, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0640-5725
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science (CNDS), Uppsala, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8180-4996
2024 (English)In: Climate Services, E-ISSN 2405-8807, Vol. 34, article id 100490Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Developing and implementing climate adaptation measures in complex socio-ecological systems can lead to unintended consequences, especially when those systems are undergoing rapid hydro-climatic and socio-economic change. In these dynamic contexts, a systemic approach can make the difference between adaptive and maladaptive outcomes. This paper focuses on the use of climate services, often touted as no-regret solutions, and their potential to generate maladaptation. We explored the interactions between climate services and adaptation/maladaptation across five case studies affected by different types of natural hazards and characterized by a range of hydro-climatic and socio-economic conditions. Using system archetypes, we show how climate services can play a role in both producing and preventing maladaptation. The dynamics explored through system archetypes are: i) “fixes that fail”, where short-sighted solutions fail to address the root causes of a problem; ii) “band aid solutions”, where the benefits brought about in the short-term come at the expenses of delaying long-term adaptive actions; and iii) “success to the successful”, where some groups increasingly benefit from climate services at the expenses of other groups. We demonstrate how these dynamics constitute maladaptive processes, as well as identifying the tools and theories that can be used in this type of assessment. Finally, we provide a framework and recommendations to guide the ex-ante assessment of maladaptation risk when designing and implementing climate services.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2024. Vol. 34, article id 100490
Keywords [en]
Climate Services, Maladaptation, System Archetypes, Adaptation, Inequality, Socio-ecological Systems, Co-creation
National Category
Climate Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-528782DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100490ISI: 001246617000001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-528782DiVA, id: diva2:1861145
Funder
EU, Horizon 2020, 101037293Available from: 2024-05-27 Created: 2024-05-27 Last updated: 2025-10-14Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Disentangling the nexus between climate information and (mal)adaptation in socio-ecological-technical systems
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Disentangling the nexus between climate information and (mal)adaptation in socio-ecological-technical systems
2025 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Alternative title[en]
Adaptation with Climate Services : Disentangling the nexus between climate information and (mal)adaptation in socio-ecological-technical systems
Abstract [en]

Adaptation to climate change is increasingly recognized as necessary for societal resilience. Yet, adaptation is neither straightforward nor inherently positive in today’s complex, unequal and rapidly changing world, which characterized the Anthropocene. This thesis investigates the interplay between climate information and (mal)adaptation in socio-ecological-technical systems (SETSs), with a particular focus on drought risk management in Europe. Through five interlinked studies, this research examines how climate services are used, misused, or underutilized in climate change adaptation, and how their design, accessibility, and usability influence maladaptive outcomes.

Papers I and II analyse the European response to the 2022 drought, uncovering both the growing awareness of drought risk and the limitations of preparedness and institutional coordination. Findings highlight persistent fragmentation and reliance on short-term operational responses. The two papers also include a call for a European Drought Directive to enshrine systemic drought risk management into European governance. Paper III conceptualizes climate services through a system thinking lens, revealing how design and delivery may unintentionally reinforce path dependencies and systemic inequalities across a series of case studies. Paper IV develops a system dynamics model to explore trade-offs in adaptation pathways. It shows how short-term climate services may offer rapid economic gains but can heighten the risk of long-term system collapse. Conversely, long-term services foster resilience but demand delayed gratification and slower wealth generation. Paper V interrogates the format-function gap in climate service design, emphasizing how entrenched expectations and techno-scientific norms may stifle context-specific and transformative approaches.

Across these studies, the thesis argues that maladaptation is not simply the result of poor decisions, but often emerges from well-intentioned but narrowly framed interventions, shaped by institutional constraints, political priorities, and epistemic norms. Climate information is therefore not a neutral addition, it plays a key role in driving adaptive and maladaptive processes. The thesis contributes to the development of more inclusive, reflexive, and transformative climate services. It advocates for a pluralistic vision of adaptation that embraces complexity, acknowledges trade-offs, and centres the diverse needs and values of affected communities.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Uppsala: Acta Universitatis Upsaliensis, 2025. p. 79
Series
Digital Comprehensive Summaries of Uppsala Dissertations from the Faculty of Science and Technology, ISSN 1651-6214 ; 2600
Keywords
climate change adaptation; climate services; maladaptation; system thinking; system dynamics.
National Category
Environmental Sciences Climate Science Multidisciplinary Geosciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-569550 (URN)978-91-513-2632-0 (ISBN)
Public defence
2025-12-05, Hambergsalen, Geocentrum, Villavägen 16, Uppsala, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2025-11-14 Created: 2025-10-14 Last updated: 2025-11-14

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Biella, RiccardoDi Baldassarre, Giuliano

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