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Development of Polar Lows in Future Climate Scenarios over the Barents Sea
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences.
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7656-1881
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0611-3543
2024 (English)In: Journal of Climate, Vol. 37, no 16, p. 4239-4255Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Polar lows (PLs) are intense mesoscale cyclones that form over polar oceans during colder months. Characterized by high wind speeds and heavy precipitation, they profoundly impact coastal communities, shipping, and offshore activities. Amid the substantial environmental changes in polar regions due to global warming, PLs are expected to undergo noteworthy transformations. In this study, we investigate the response of PL development in the Barents Sea to climate warming based on two representative PLs. Sensitivity experiments were conducted including the PLs in the present climate and the PLs in a pseudo–global warming scenario projected by the late twenty-first century for Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2-4.5 and SSP 3-7.0 scenarios from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). In both warming climate scenarios, there is an anticipated decrease in PL intensity, in terms of the maximum surface wind speed and minimum sea level pressure. Despite the foreseen increase in latent heat release in the future climate, contributing to the enhancement of PL intensity, other primary factors such as decreased baroclinic instability, heightened atmospheric static stability, and reduced overall surface heat fluxes play pivotal roles in the overall decrease in PL intensity in the Barents Sea under warming conditions. The augmentation of surface latent heat flux, however, results in increased precipitation associated with PLs by enhancing the latent heat release. Furthermore, the regional steering flow shifts in the warming climate can influence the trajectory of PLs during their development.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
American Meteorological Society, 2024. Vol. 37, no 16, p. 4239-4255
National Category
Climate Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-536282DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0027.1ISI: 001285440300001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-536282DiVA, id: diva2:1889268
Available from: 2024-08-15 Created: 2024-08-15 Last updated: 2025-04-14Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Understanding the interactions between polar lows and the ocean
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Understanding the interactions between polar lows and the ocean
2025 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Polar lows (PLs) are intense, high-latitude mesoscale weather systems that develop over oceanic areas near the polar regions during the cold season. Due to their association with severe weather conditions, they can significantly impact human life and socioeconomic activities. However, their small size, short lifespan, and limited observational data make forecasting PLs particularly challenging. Moreover, the complex physical mechanisms underlying their formation and intensification remain insufficiently understood, highlighting the need for further investigation.

The ocean plays a critical role in PL development, making an accurate representation of air-sea heat fluxes essential for enhancing forecasts and improving numerical simulations. Intense PLs are often accompanied by localized gale-force winds (>30 m/s), which can extract substantial heat (>1000 W/m2) from the ocean, sufficient to leave pronounced effects on the underlying ocean. Given the strong interactions between PLs and the ocean, this thesis aims to address key knowledge gaps in this field.

Sea spray, generated by wave breaking under high wind conditions, significantly influences turbulent heat fluxes at the air-sea interface. The first part of this thesis investigates the impact of spray-mediated heat fluxes on PLs through an atmosphere-wave coupled model. Results indicate that spray-enhanced sensible heat fluxes play a crucial role in PL development, whereas spray-enhanced latent heat fluxes have a relatively minor effect. Beyond sea spray, the ocean surface contains mesoscale structures such as eddies and fronts, which create mesoscale sea surface temperature anomalies. These anomalies can also influence air-sea turbulent heat and momentum fluxes, thereby favoring the intensification of PLs, as explored in the second part of this thesis. The third part of this thesis examines the impact of PLs on the global ocean. The findings indicate that the oceanic response to PLs exhibits strong regional variability. The Atlantic Ocean emerges as the most sensitive region.

In the context of global warming, PL activity is expected to shift poleward as the sea ice edge retreats to higher latitudes, resulting in a reduced frequency of occurrence. However, the response of individual PL development to a warming climate remains uncertain. The final part of this thesis addresses this uncertainty by applying a pseudo-global warming approach to investigate how individual PLs respond to climate change. The results reveal a general weakening of PL intensity under warmer conditions, reflected in lower maximum surface wind speeds and higher minimum sea level pressure. Nevertheless, PL-associated precipitation is projected to intensify, primarily due to increased latent heat release in a warmer atmosphere.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Uppsala: Acta Universitatis Upsaliensis, 2025. p. 45
Series
Digital Comprehensive Summaries of Uppsala Dissertations from the Faculty of Science and Technology, ISSN 1651-6214 ; 2532
National Category
Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-553567 (URN)978-91-513-2465-4 (ISBN)
Public defence
2025-06-12, Hambergsalen, Geocentrum, Villavägen 16, Uppsala, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2025-05-08 Created: 2025-03-28 Last updated: 2025-05-08

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Publisher's full texthttps://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/37/16/JCLI-D-24-0027.1.xml

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Lin, TingRutgersson, AnnaWu, Lichuan

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