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The 2022 Drought Needs to be a Turning Point for European Drought Risk Management
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science, Uppsala, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0640-5725
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science, Uppsala, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0492-7407
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2024 (English)In: Natural hazards and earth system sciences, ISSN 1561-8633, E-ISSN 1684-9981Article in journal (Other academic) In press
Abstract [en]

The 2022 European drought has underscored critical deficiencies in European water management. This paper explores these shortcomings and suggests a way forward for European drought risk management. Data for this study was gathered through a continent-wide survey of water managers involved in this event. The survey collected 481 responses from 30 European countries and is comprised of 19 questions concerning sectorial impact in the regions of the responders and drought risk management practices of their organizations. Information from the survey is enriched with climate-related information to offer a comprehensive overview of drought risk management in Europe. Our research focuses on four key aspects: the increasing risk of drought, its spatial and temporal impacts, current drought risk management approaches, and the evolution of drought risk management across the continent. Our findings reveal a consensus on the growing risk of drought, which is confounded by the rising frequency and intensity of droughts. While the 2022 event affected most of the continent, our findings show significant regional disparities in drought risk management capacity among the various countries. Our analysis indicates that current drought risk management measures often rely on short-term operational concerns, particularly in agriculture-dominated economies, leading to potentially maladaptive practices. An overall positive trend in drought risk management, with organizations showing increased awareness and preparedness, indicates how this crisis can be the ideal moment to mainstream European-wide drought risk management. Consequently, we advocate for a European Drought Directive, to harmonize and enforce drought risk management policies across the continent. This directive should promote a systemic, integrated, and long-term risk management perspective. The directive should also set clear guidelines for drought risk management at the national level and for cross-boundary drought collaboration.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2024.
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-537743OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-537743DiVA, id: diva2:1894908
Funder
EU, Horizon 2020, 101037293EU, Horizon 2020, 956396EU, European Research Council, ERC-2020-StG 948601EU, Horizon Europe, 101121192EU, Horizon 2020, 101003876EU, Horizon Europe, 101003469EU, Horizon 2020, 820712Swedish Research Council Formas, 942-2015-1123
Note

This study and its companion paper "The 2022 Drought Shows the Importance of Preparedness in European Drought Risk Management" are the result of a study carried out by the Drought in the Anthropocene (DitA) network.

Available from: 2024-09-04 Created: 2024-09-04 Last updated: 2025-10-14Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Disentangling the nexus between climate information and (mal)adaptation in socio-ecological-technical systems
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Disentangling the nexus between climate information and (mal)adaptation in socio-ecological-technical systems
2025 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Alternative title[en]
Adaptation with Climate Services : Disentangling the nexus between climate information and (mal)adaptation in socio-ecological-technical systems
Abstract [en]

Adaptation to climate change is increasingly recognized as necessary for societal resilience. Yet, adaptation is neither straightforward nor inherently positive in today’s complex, unequal and rapidly changing world, which characterized the Anthropocene. This thesis investigates the interplay between climate information and (mal)adaptation in socio-ecological-technical systems (SETSs), with a particular focus on drought risk management in Europe. Through five interlinked studies, this research examines how climate services are used, misused, or underutilized in climate change adaptation, and how their design, accessibility, and usability influence maladaptive outcomes.

Papers I and II analyse the European response to the 2022 drought, uncovering both the growing awareness of drought risk and the limitations of preparedness and institutional coordination. Findings highlight persistent fragmentation and reliance on short-term operational responses. The two papers also include a call for a European Drought Directive to enshrine systemic drought risk management into European governance. Paper III conceptualizes climate services through a system thinking lens, revealing how design and delivery may unintentionally reinforce path dependencies and systemic inequalities across a series of case studies. Paper IV develops a system dynamics model to explore trade-offs in adaptation pathways. It shows how short-term climate services may offer rapid economic gains but can heighten the risk of long-term system collapse. Conversely, long-term services foster resilience but demand delayed gratification and slower wealth generation. Paper V interrogates the format-function gap in climate service design, emphasizing how entrenched expectations and techno-scientific norms may stifle context-specific and transformative approaches.

Across these studies, the thesis argues that maladaptation is not simply the result of poor decisions, but often emerges from well-intentioned but narrowly framed interventions, shaped by institutional constraints, political priorities, and epistemic norms. Climate information is therefore not a neutral addition, it plays a key role in driving adaptive and maladaptive processes. The thesis contributes to the development of more inclusive, reflexive, and transformative climate services. It advocates for a pluralistic vision of adaptation that embraces complexity, acknowledges trade-offs, and centres the diverse needs and values of affected communities.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Uppsala: Acta Universitatis Upsaliensis, 2025. p. 79
Series
Digital Comprehensive Summaries of Uppsala Dissertations from the Faculty of Science and Technology, ISSN 1651-6214 ; 2600
Keywords
climate change adaptation; climate services; maladaptation; system thinking; system dynamics.
National Category
Environmental Sciences Climate Science Multidisciplinary Geosciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-569550 (URN)978-91-513-2632-0 (ISBN)
Public defence
2025-12-05, Hambergsalen, Geocentrum, Villavägen 16, Uppsala, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2025-11-14 Created: 2025-10-14 Last updated: 2025-11-14

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Biella, RiccardoShyrokaya, AnastasiyaTeutschbein, ClaudiaStenfors, ElinDi Baldassarre, Giuliano

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