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How good is my drought index? Evaluating predictability and ability to estimate impacts across Europe
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Air, Water and Landscape Sciences.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0492-7407
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Air, Water and Landscape Sciences.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2032-5211
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2025 (English)In: Environmental Research Letters, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 20, no 3, article id 034051Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Identifying drought indices that effectively predict future drought impacts remains a critical challenge in seasonal forecasting, as these indices provide the necessary actionable information that enables stakeholders to better anticipate and respond to drought-related challenges. This study evaluates how drought indices balance forecast skill and relevance for estimating impacts across Europe. Using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts SEAS5 seasonal predictions and ERA5 reanalysis as benchmarks, we assessed the predictability skill of drought indices over various accumulation periods and their relevance in estimating drought impacts across Europe, with the aim of enhancing impact-based forecasting. To evaluate these relationships, we built upon the findings from a study that utilized drought impact data from the European Drought Impact Report Inventory and employed random forest models to evaluate the significance of various drought indices in predicting sector-specific impacts. Our findings reveal higher predictability in Northern and Southern Europe, particularly during winter and summer, with some regions showing extended predictability up to six months, depending on the season. Focusing on case studies in the UK and Germany, our results highlight regions and seasons where accurate impact predictions are possible. In both countries, high impact predictability was found up to six months ahead, with sectors such as Agriculture, Water Supply, and Tourism in the UK, and Agriculture and Water Transportation in Germany, depending on the region and season. This analysis represents a significant step forward in identifying the most suitable drought indices for predicting impacts across Europe. Our approach not only introduces a new method for evaluating the relationship between drought indices and impacts, but also addresses the challenge of selecting indices for estimating impacts. This framework advances the development of operational impact-based drought forecasting systems for Europe.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Institute of Physics Publishing (IOPP), 2025. Vol. 20, no 3, article id 034051
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Earth Science with specialization in Environmental Analysis
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-552193DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/adb869ISI: 001439377100001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-552193DiVA, id: diva2:1943401
Available from: 2025-03-10 Created: 2025-03-10 Last updated: 2025-08-26Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. On seasonal predictability of droughts and their impacts: Bridging science and operational applications
Open this publication in new window or tab >>On seasonal predictability of droughts and their impacts: Bridging science and operational applications
2025 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Droughts are among the most complex and least understood natural hazards, with impacts that are often delayed, diffuse, and deeply context-dependent. Despite advances in hydro-meteorological forecasting, a persistent gap remains between the detection of drought conditions and the anticipation of their societal consequences. This thesis addresses this gap by advancing the science and operational potential of impact-based forecasting for droughts.

This work combined conceptual synthesis, statistical analysis, and machine learning to explore the relationships between drought indicators and sector-specific impacts across Europe and India. First, a structured overview of the current state of the art and practical challenges is provided. Then, drought indicators are related to observed impacts to assess their predictability across Europe using seasonal forecasts. Lastly, a pre-season forecasting framework for crop yield in India is developed and evaluated to explore the feasibility of anticipatory impact prediction at district level.

The findings show that indicator–impact relationships are highly variable across space, time, and sectors, and that even modest improvements in forecast skill can yield meaningful benefits for early action. By integrating seasonal forecasts with impact-relevant indicators, this thesis contributes to the development of more actionable, context-specific early warning systems. It also highlights the need for co-produced, user-centred approaches that bridge the gap between climate signals and real-world decisions.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Uppsala: Acta Universitatis Upsaliensis, 2025. p. 69
Series
Digital Comprehensive Summaries of Uppsala Dissertations from the Faculty of Science and Technology, ISSN 1651-6214 ; 2560
Keywords
drought, natural hazards, hydrological risk, climate change, extreme weather, drought indicators, early warning systems, drought impacts, seasonal forecasting
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Earth Science with specialization in Environmental Analysis
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-564240 (URN)978-91-513-2538-5 (ISBN)
Public defence
2025-09-26, Hambergsalen, Uppsala, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2025-09-02 Created: 2025-07-30 Last updated: 2025-09-02

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Shyrokaya, AnastasiyaMessori, GabrieleDi Baldassarre, Giuliano

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