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Exploring Early and Late Pregnancy Heart Rate Variability as Predictors of Postpartum Depression and Anxiety Symptoms
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Medicine and Pharmacy, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Women's and Children's Health, Medical psychology and care science.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-3094-5497
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Psychology.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-6821-9058
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Medicine and Pharmacy, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Women's and Children's Health, Reproductive Health. Uppsala University, WoMHeR (Centre for Women's Mental Health during the Reproductive Lifespan). Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Medicine and Pharmacy, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Women's and Children's Health, Medical psychology and care science.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0937-0887
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(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
National Category
Psychiatry Gynaecology, Obstetrics and Reproductive Medicine
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-567451OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-567451DiVA, id: diva2:1998650
Available from: 2025-09-17 Created: 2025-09-17 Last updated: 2025-09-19
In thesis
1. Exploring Predictive Models of Postpartum Depression and Anxiety Using Non-Invasive Neurophysiological Measures During Pregnancy
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Exploring Predictive Models of Postpartum Depression and Anxiety Using Non-Invasive Neurophysiological Measures During Pregnancy
2025 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Postpartum depression and anxiety are pervasive and debilitating conditions, yet current risk identification is limited to self-report measures. This thesis examines whether noninvasive physiological measures collected during pregnancy improve prediction of postpartum depression (PPD) and anxiety beyond psychosocial screening. Across two prospective Uppsala cohorts (BASIC; 3PAD), heart rate variability (HRV), prepulse inhibition (PPI) of the acoustic startle response, and task-evoked pupil dilation (PD) were assessed in late pregnancy (BASIC) and at both early and late pregnancy (3PAD). Outcome measures were symptoms of depression and anxiety at six weeks postpartum. In Study I, elastic net models combining HRV with psychosocial variables discriminated PPD (AUC 0.93) and anxiety (AUC 0.83), but inclusion of HRV did not significantly improve accuracy beyond psychosocial predictors. In Study II, logistic regression analyses indicated that reduced PPI at 86 dB predicted de novo PPD among women without antenatal depression (AUC 0.81), with slight gains when covariates were added (AUC 0.91), suggesting potential utility for identifying cases missed by symptom-based screening. In Study III, random-forest models showed HRV from two gestational timepoints provided modest but reliable improvements in predicting PPD and state anxiety, with low frequency/high frequency ratio the most informative index. HRV indices added no incremental value for trait anxiety. In Study IV, elastic-net models including PD achieved good discrimination (AUCs 0.88-0.91) but did not outperform psychosocial predictors. Nevertheless, outcome-specific profiles were observed: PPD was linked to blunted early engagement and reduced sustained effort, state anxiety showed heightened early engagement followed by dampened responses across multiple indices, and trait anxiety involved opposing changes in mobilization speed across pregnancy. These patterns suggest that pupil-linked arousal dynamics may differentiate depression and anxiety outcomes, even if they add little predictive power. Overall, antenatal physiological measures were shown to complement psychosocial screening and provide mechanistic insight into perinatal mood vulnerability. While certain indices showed promise, predictive gains were modest and inconsistent, indicating that these measures are not yet ready for clinical application. Larger, externally validated studies are needed to establish their robustness and to determine whether they can be integrated into multiparametric, tiered risk algorithms to support prevention in perinatal care.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Uppsala: Acta Universitatis Upsaliensis, 2025. p. 74
Series
Digital Comprehensive Summaries of Uppsala Dissertations from the Faculty of Medicine, ISSN 1651-6206 ; 2182
Keywords
Postpartum depression, Postpartum anxiety, Perinatal mental health, Pregnancy, Heart rate variability, Prepulse inhibition, Pupil dilation, Neurophysiology, Biomarkers, Predictive modeling
National Category
Psychiatry Gynaecology, Obstetrics and Reproductive Medicine
Research subject
Medical Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-567459 (URN)978-91-513-2598-9 (ISBN)
Public defence
2025-11-07, Universitetshuset Sal IV, Biskopsgatan 3, 753 10, Uppsala, 13:00 (English)
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Available from: 2025-10-17 Created: 2025-09-19 Last updated: 2025-10-17

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Eriksson, AllisonFurmark, TomasWikman, AnnaElofsson, UlfFrick, AndreasFransson, Emma

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Medical psychology and care scienceDepartment of PsychologyReproductive HealthWoMHeR (Centre for Women's Mental Health during the Reproductive Lifespan)Obstetrics and Reproductive Health ResearchExperimental Cognitive and Affective Neuroscience (ECAN)
PsychiatryGynaecology, Obstetrics and Reproductive Medicine

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