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Trouble on the blue horizon: An investigation into environmental, social and political challenges for sustainable ocean governance
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
2025 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Description
Abstract [en]

The world’s oceans are currently shaped by two diverging trends: unprecedented efforts to preserve marine ecosystems, and an accelerating exploitation of ocean resources. As these contradicting trends proliferate, interactions between diverse stakeholders and policies lead to incompatibilities in shared ocean space and resources, increasing tensions and the risk for conflict. Neoliberal rationales within ocean governance frameworks add a further factor of uncertainty as power and economic growth are prioritized over environmental sustainability. Simultaneously, the geopolitical order at sea is undergoing a historic transformation. After two centuries largely characterized by maritime hegemony, power dynamics on the world’s oceans are shifting toward a multipolar order, which raises urgent questions about the prospects for sustainable ocean governance. This thesis therefore investigates whether and how marine resource conflicts and geopolitical change can undermine the prospects for sustainable ocean governance. Four papers investigate different developments in the context of ocean preservation and exploitation and geopolitical change. Paper I introduces process tracing as a methodological tool for the analysis of marine resource conflicts. This method facilitates the investigation of causal mechanisms that generate conflicts over marine resources. Paper II then applies process tracing to an interest conflict over pelagic sharks in the North Atlantic, where marine tourism in the Azores relies on the presence of sharks, while the same species are simultaneously caught by industrial longline fisheries on the High Seas. Paper III examines how fisheries policies and marine conservation initiatives affect the livelihoods of small-scale fisheries in the Azores, showing how sustainability measures can have socio-economic impacts. Zooming out, Paper IV presents a narrative systematic literature review of geopolitical developments on the global oceans, engaging with selected literature via four different themes to explore what the observed developments imply for sustainable ocean governance. Together, these studies examine transformations currently shaping the ocean biosphere: the emergence of new types of conflicts; the complexities of balancing conservation and resource use; and the reconfiguration of geopolitical dynamics at sea. In doing so, the thesis highlights key environmental, social and political challenges for achieving sustainable ocean governance in an evolving global context and at different spatial scales.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Uppsala: Acta Universitatis Upsaliensis, 2025. , p. 92
Series
Digital Comprehensive Summaries of Uppsala Dissertations from the Faculty of Science and Technology, ISSN 1651-6214 ; 2594
Keywords [en]
Azores, blue economy, blue growth, blue justice, European Union, geopolitics, international relations, Mare Liberum, Marine Protected Area, marine resource conflicts, marine tourism, North Atlantic Ocean, natural resources, ocean governance, process tracing, small-scale fisheries, sustainable development, sharks
National Category
Environmental Studies in Social Sciences
Research subject
Natural Resources and Sustainable Development
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-567794ISBN: 978-91-513-2602-3 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-567794DiVA, id: diva2:1999942
Public defence
2025-11-07, Hambergssalen, Geocentrum,, Villavägen 16, Uppsala, 14:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Part of project
Negotiating Ocean Conflicts among RIvals for Sustainable and Equitable Solutions (NOCRISES), Swedish Research Council Formas
Funder
Swedish Research Council Formas, 2019-02378Available from: 2025-10-17 Created: 2025-09-22 Last updated: 2025-10-17
List of papers
1. Understanding and analysing the complex causality of conflicts over marine environments through process tracing
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Understanding and analysing the complex causality of conflicts over marine environments through process tracing
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2023 (English)In: Maritime Studies, ISSN 1872-7859, E-ISSN 2212-9790, Vol. 22, no 2, article id 19Article, review/survey (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

As economic activity in marine environments accelerates and expands, conflicts may increase following increased demand over marine resources, unequal distribution of benefits, as well as fluctuating resource availability and quality due to climate change. Anticipation and resolution of these conflicts require understanding of the causal mechanisms through which they originate and persist. Process tracing is a promising social science method that allows producing this knowledge by sequentially ordering events that produce conflict. The aim of this paper is to introduce process tracing as a method for the study of conflicts over marine environments and to assess how the method so far is used in previous studies of conflicts over marine environments. Our review of these studies reveals that scholars of conflicts over marine environments tend to apply process tracing using a deductive approach and a probabilistic understanding of causal mechanisms. The causal mechanisms that are identified to understand the dynamics that drive conflicts over marine environments often include power dynamics between states, institutions, movements or communities. Less articulated is how local social dynamics drives conflicts and how scholars select their cases to represent a wider population of conflicts. We conclude that applying a micro-sociological approach, more attention to case selection, and the interaction between contexts and mechanisms are promising ways forward for further use of process tracing in maritime studies.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer Nature, 2023
Keywords
Marine conflict, Causal mechanisms, Geopolitics, Case studies, Power
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-502406 (URN)10.1007/s40152-023-00306-4 (DOI)000976323600001 ()
Note

Correction in: Maritime Studies, vol. 22, issue 2, article number 25, DOI: 10.1007/s40152-023-00314-4

Available from: 2023-05-25 Created: 2023-05-25 Last updated: 2025-09-22Bibliographically approved
2. Watching or catching sharks: Tracing the emergence of a marine resource conflict in the North Atlantic
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Watching or catching sharks: Tracing the emergence of a marine resource conflict in the North Atlantic
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
National Category
Environmental Studies in Social Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-567783 (URN)
Available from: 2025-09-22 Created: 2025-09-22 Last updated: 2025-09-25Bibliographically approved
3. Marine conservation in the blue economy: socio-economic impacts on Azorean small-scale fisheries
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Marine conservation in the blue economy: socio-economic impacts on Azorean small-scale fisheries
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
National Category
Environmental Studies in Social Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-567792 (URN)
Available from: 2025-09-22 Created: 2025-09-22 Last updated: 2025-09-25Bibliographically approved
4. Toward contested seas?: A review of geopolitical trends at sea in the 21st century
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Toward contested seas?: A review of geopolitical trends at sea in the 21st century
2025 (English)In: The Anthropocene Review, ISSN 2053-0196, E-ISSN 2053-020XArticle, review/survey (Refereed) Epub ahead of print
Abstract [en]

In the Anthropocene, the world’s oceans have come under unprecedented human pressure. Countries have responded to this pressure by organizing themselves internationally around the idea of sustainable ocean governance. However, the geopolitical context in which sustainable ocean governance has taken shape in recent decades has begun to shift. After two centuries marked by British and American maritime hegemony, several other states are now asserting their maritime presence, raising the question of whether an increasingly multipolar environment will bring the relatively stable international maritime order to an end. In this paper we collect, organize, and analyze evidence from academic literature that reports and investigates a shift in geopolitics at sea. Based on the results of this literature review we explore how the international maritime order is changing and discuss what this geopolitical shift means for sustainable ocean governance.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Sage Publications, 2025
Keywords
geopolitics, international relations, balance of power, ocean governance, natural resources, maritime trade, political science, mare liberum, Anthropocene, sustainable development
National Category
Political Science (Excluding Peace and Conflict Studies) Environmental Studies in Social Sciences
Research subject
Political Science; Natural Resources and Sustainable Development; History
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-567778 (URN)10.1177/20530196251334759 (DOI)001485451600001 ()2-s2.0-105004931095 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Swedish Research Council Formas, 2019-02378
Available from: 2025-09-22 Created: 2025-09-22 Last updated: 2025-09-29Bibliographically approved

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