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Trade-offs in adaptation to water-related risks: Modelling how climate services can influence pathways to transformation
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science (CNDS), Uppsala, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0640-5725
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8180-4996
2025 (English)In: Frontiers in Water, E-ISSN 2624-9375Article in journal (Other academic) Submitted
Abstract [en]

Climate services play a central role in adaptation strategies to water-related risks, yet the long-term implications of relying on different types of climate information remain poorly understood. This paper presents a system dynamics model that explores how short-term and long-term climate services influence adaptation trajectories balancing agricultural production and wealth generation with water management and ecosystem protection. We apply the model to a synthetic case study where water scarcity poses the main risk for agriculture, considering precipitation forecasts as the main climate service. Short-term climate services (e.g. sub-seasonal forecasts) prioritize immediate risks and can drive reactive adaptation, such as rapid reservoir expansion and agricultural intensification. Long-term climate services (e.g. climate projections), by contrast, can support strategic planning and promote transformative measures, such as ecological restoration. Our model shows trade-offs between rapid wealth generation and long-term sustainability. Scenarios dominated by short-term climate services lead to faster economic growth, but also frequent water crises and potential system collapse. In contrast, reliance on long-term climate services can help build resilience and prevent collapse, but lead to slower returns. Intermediate scenarios can avoid the worst outcomes, though they remain unstable and highly sensitive to climatic variability and shocks. Under climate change, increased variability in water recharge amplifies the demand for reactive measures, reinforcing short-term feedbacks and amplifying the risk of maladaptation. These findings highlight the importance of providing adaptation planners with long-term climate services that support the development of sustainable options while reducing the pressure of immediate threats. The model offers a conceptual framework for anticipating maladaptive patterns and emphasizes the need to balance short- and long-term objectives in coping with climate change. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2025.
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources Climate Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-569548OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-569548DiVA, id: diva2:2006478
Available from: 2025-10-14 Created: 2025-10-14 Last updated: 2025-10-20
In thesis
1. Disentangling the nexus between climate information and (mal)adaptation in socio-ecological-technical systems
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Disentangling the nexus between climate information and (mal)adaptation in socio-ecological-technical systems
2025 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Alternative title[en]
Adaptation with Climate Services : Disentangling the nexus between climate information and (mal)adaptation in socio-ecological-technical systems
Abstract [en]

Adaptation to climate change is increasingly recognized as necessary for societal resilience. Yet, adaptation is neither straightforward nor inherently positive in today’s complex, unequal and rapidly changing world, which characterized the Anthropocene. This thesis investigates the interplay between climate information and (mal)adaptation in socio-ecological-technical systems (SETSs), with a particular focus on drought risk management in Europe. Through five interlinked studies, this research examines how climate services are used, misused, or underutilized in climate change adaptation, and how their design, accessibility, and usability influence maladaptive outcomes.

Papers I and II analyse the European response to the 2022 drought, uncovering both the growing awareness of drought risk and the limitations of preparedness and institutional coordination. Findings highlight persistent fragmentation and reliance on short-term operational responses. The two papers also include a call for a European Drought Directive to enshrine systemic drought risk management into European governance. Paper III conceptualizes climate services through a system thinking lens, revealing how design and delivery may unintentionally reinforce path dependencies and systemic inequalities across a series of case studies. Paper IV develops a system dynamics model to explore trade-offs in adaptation pathways. It shows how short-term climate services may offer rapid economic gains but can heighten the risk of long-term system collapse. Conversely, long-term services foster resilience but demand delayed gratification and slower wealth generation. Paper V interrogates the format-function gap in climate service design, emphasizing how entrenched expectations and techno-scientific norms may stifle context-specific and transformative approaches.

Across these studies, the thesis argues that maladaptation is not simply the result of poor decisions, but often emerges from well-intentioned but narrowly framed interventions, shaped by institutional constraints, political priorities, and epistemic norms. Climate information is therefore not a neutral addition, it plays a key role in driving adaptive and maladaptive processes. The thesis contributes to the development of more inclusive, reflexive, and transformative climate services. It advocates for a pluralistic vision of adaptation that embraces complexity, acknowledges trade-offs, and centres the diverse needs and values of affected communities.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Uppsala: Acta Universitatis Upsaliensis, 2025. p. 79
Series
Digital Comprehensive Summaries of Uppsala Dissertations from the Faculty of Science and Technology, ISSN 1651-6214 ; 2600
Keywords
climate change adaptation; climate services; maladaptation; system thinking; system dynamics.
National Category
Environmental Sciences Climate Science Multidisciplinary Geosciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-569550 (URN)978-91-513-2632-0 (ISBN)
Public defence
2025-12-05, Hambergsalen, Geocentrum, Villavägen 16, Uppsala, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2025-11-14 Created: 2025-10-14 Last updated: 2025-11-14

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Biella, RiccardoDi Baldassarre, Giuliano

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