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Modelling markers of exposure and response in the treatment of tuberculosis
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Medicine and Pharmacy, Faculty of Pharmacy, Department of Pharmacy.ORCID iD: 0009-0001-1335-1366
2026 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Tuberculosis (TB) remains one of the leading causes of death from a single infectious agent, with an estimated 10.7 million people developing active disease and 1.23 million dying in 2024. Key challenges in TB management include the limited availability of child-friendly formulations, the need for novel treatment-response biomarkers quantifying bacterial load, and cardiac safety concerns associated with QT-prolonging regimens. The overall aim of this thesis was to apply pharmacometric approaches to address these challenges, spanning cardiac safety assessment, formulation bridging, and the characterisation of treatment-response biomarkers.

Conventional heart rate (HR) corrections of the QT interval assume a fixed QT–HR relationship and will therefore generate biased assessment in patients with TB, in whom an elevated HR normalises during treatment. Using data from 440 patients treated for drug-resistant TB, a population model of HR recovery was developed and used to derive a time-varying correction factor, QTcTBT, which transitions from a TB-specific pretreatment correction exponent towards the Fridericia exponent as HR recovers. QTcTBT maintained independence between corrected QT and HR throughout treatment and was externally validated in two independent cohorts, whereas Bazett’s and Fridericia’s corrections showed systematic over- and under correction, respectively.

Applying QTcTBT to exposure–QT analysis of bedaquiline treatment, the typical QT-prolonging effect of the metabolite M2 was estimated at 7.01 ms (90% confidence interval 5.95–8.16) at clinically relevant concentrations, remaining below the 10 ms regulatory threshold. Estimates obtained with QTcTBT were not less sensitive to assumptions regarding non-drug-related changes in QT over time than those based on Fridericia-corrected QT.

To support paediatric access to the rifapentine–isoniazid preventive treatment regimen, the relative bioavailability of tablets suspended in water was compared with whole tablets in 24 adults. The two modes of administration provided the relative bioavailability within the limits for bioequivalent, with 90% confidence intervals contained within the 80–125% limits, although absorption was more rapid following suspension.

Finally, a joint longitudinal model integrating time to positivity in liquid culture (MGIT-TTP), the TB molecular bacterial load assay (TB-MBLA), and a sputum lipoarabinomannan antigen test (PATHFAST LAM Ag test) was developed using data from 149 participants. The model quantified biomarker- and phase-specific correlations in bacterial clearance and showed the complementarity of the novel biomarkers in addition to MGIT-TTP through exposure–response relationships for sutezolid and delpazolid, although the novel biomarkers were less sensitive than MGIT-TTP for quantifying drug effects.

This thesis demonstrates how pharmacometric approaches can strengthen model-informed development of TB therapeutics by improving cardiac safety assessment, enabling formulation bridging to paediatric populations, and characterizing novel biomarkers can be integrated alongside standard culture-based endpoints to evaluate treatment response.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Uppsala: Acta Universitatis Upsaliensis, 2026. , p. 76
Series
Digital Comprehensive Summaries of Uppsala Dissertations from the Faculty of Pharmacy, ISSN 1651-6192 ; 408
Keywords [en]
pharmacometrics, tuberculosis, population pharmacokinetics, QT interval, QT correction, bedaquiline, rifapentine, formulation bridging, treatment-response biomarkers, model-informed drug development
National Category
Infectious Medicine Pharmaceutical Sciences
Research subject
Pharmaceutical Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-596016ISBN: 978-91-513-2934-5 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-596016DiVA, id: diva2:2093648
Public defence
2026-10-09, Room X, Uppsala University Main Building, Biskopsgatan 3, Uppsala, 09:15 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2026-09-17 Created: 2026-08-19 Last updated: 2026-09-25
List of papers
1. Development and validation of a time-varying correction factor for QT interval assessment in drug-resistant tuberculosis patients
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Development and validation of a time-varying correction factor for QT interval assessment in drug-resistant tuberculosis patients
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2025 (English)In: International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents, ISSN 0924-8579, E-ISSN 1872-7913, Vol. 65, no 4, article id 107460Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Background: Tachycardia associated with active tuberculosis (TB) often diminishes when patients recover from TB. Elevated heart rate (HR) may lead to suboptimal correction, complicating the assessment of QT prolongation when using standard correction factors (CFs), such as Fridericia's formula (QTcF). Olliaro has proposed a CF for QT interval correction in pretreatment TB patients. However, the QT-HR correlation changes as HR decreases during treatment, indicating the need for time-varying correction.

Methods: We developed an HR model to capture the HR normalisation during successful treatment. Subsequently, a time-varying CF was constructed using the estimated HR change rate. The performance of CFs to make corrected QT (QTc) independent from HR was evaluated by linear regression analyses of QTc versus HR within defined time bins.

Results: The final HR model included asymptotic change in HR attributed to time on treatment, circadian rhythm cycles, M2 (bedaquiline-metabolite) concentration, and patient covariates. The time-varying CF decreased from 0.4081 to 0.33, with a half-life of 7.74 weeks. The slope (QTc/HR vs. Time) derived from the time-varying correction was not significantly different from 0 (95% CI -0.003 to 0.002), and the intercept was not significantly different from 0 (95% CI -0.089 to 0.006), demonstrating successful QT correction from pretreatment to the end of treatment.

Conclusion: The time-varying CF effectively captures the dynamic QT-HR relationship during TB treatment, reducing the risk of misdiagnosing QT prolongation or unnecessary discontinuation of treatment. By addressing underestimation and overestimation issues in QT interval assessment, this method enhances drug evaluation in clinical trials and supports improved treatment decisions for TB patients. (c) 2025 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ )

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2025
Keywords
Tuberculosis, Tachycardia, Heart rate, QT interval, QT prolongation, Correction factors
National Category
Cardiology and Cardiovascular Disease
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-552427 (URN)10.1016/j.ijantimicag.2025.107460 (DOI)001435151700001 ()39922239 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-85218850497 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2025-03-14 Created: 2025-03-14 Last updated: 2026-08-19Bibliographically approved
2. Establishing the Exposure-QT Relationship During Bedaquiline Treatment Using a Time-Varying Tuberculosis-Specific Correction Factor (QTcTBT)
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Establishing the Exposure-QT Relationship During Bedaquiline Treatment Using a Time-Varying Tuberculosis-Specific Correction Factor (QTcTBT)
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2025 (English)In: CPT: Pharmacometrics and Systems Pharmacology (PSP), E-ISSN 2163-8306, Vol. 14, no 7, p. 1252-1261Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Evaluating QT prolongation induced by anti-tuberculosis (TB) drugs in patients with active TB, who often experience tachycardia, is challenging due to the limitations of Fridericia's correction factor (QTcF) in decorrelating QTc from heart rate (HR). Previous exposure-QTcF analyses in patients with active TB were able to alleviate the limitation of QTcF but required advanced model-based methodologies, incorporating a non-drug-related, "secular" trend in the model to dissociate drug and non-drug-related effects on QT. Recently, we developed and validated a time-varying QT correction method (QTcTBT) that more accurately accounts for the HR changes during TB treatment. In the present work, using data from 429 patients with multidrug-resistant TB across two Phase IIb trials, we re-evaluated the exposure-QTc relationship for bedaquiline by applying QTcTBT instead of QTcF. Our analysis showed that when HR changes were accounted for using QTcTBT, a typical maximum M2 (bedaquiline metabolite) concentration (326 ng/mL, mean maximal concentration (Cmax) at the end of 2-week loading phase) was associated with a 7 ms QTc interval prolongation (90% CI: 5.9-8.2). This estimate closely aligns with the previously reported M2 effect of 7.9 ms (90% CI: 6.8-9.3), derived from the exposure-QTcF model. The consistency between the two methodologies further supports the use of QTcTBT for estimating the QTc prolongation effects of anti-TB drugs.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
John Wiley & Sons, 2025
National Category
Pharmaceutical Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-566840 (URN)10.1002/psp4.70047 (DOI)001488086900001 ()40369885 (PubMedID)
Funder
Swedish Research Council, 2022-06725Swedish Research Council, 2018-05973Swedish National Infrastructure for Computing (SNIC)
Available from: 2025-09-11 Created: 2025-09-11 Last updated: 2026-08-19Bibliographically approved
3. Bridging to Paediatric Dosing: Relative Bioavailability of Suspended Rifapentine and Isoniazid in an Open-Label Randomized Trial in Adults on Tuberculosis Preventive Therapy
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Bridging to Paediatric Dosing: Relative Bioavailability of Suspended Rifapentine and Isoniazid in an Open-Label Randomized Trial in Adults on Tuberculosis Preventive Therapy
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2025 (English)In: Clinical Pharmacokinetics, ISSN 0312-5963, E-ISSN 1179-1926, Vol. 64, no 12, p. 1885-1896Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Background and Objectives

The use of the 12-dose, once-weekly, rifapentine-based (3HP), short-course tuberculosis preventive treatment (TPT) in children has been limited due to a lack of child-friendly rifapentine formulations. In this study, we compared the relative bioavailability of rifapentine and isoniazid when suspended in water versus whole tablets, using generic adult formulations.

Methods

We assessed the relative bioavailability of non-dispersible rifapentine and isoniazid adult tablets suspended in water compared with whole tablets. Adults with a positive tuberculosis infection test were randomized 1:1:1 to receive two of three rifapentine/isoniazid formulations in separate treatment sequences, including two generic brands of fixed-dose combinations and standalone tablets of rifapentine and isoniazid. Participants received either whole tablets swallowed or tablets suspended in water at a dose of 900 mg for each drug once weekly over 12 weeks with intensive pharmacokinetic sampling up to 48 h post-dose. Nonlinear mixed-effects modelling was used to compare the relative bioavailability of suspended versus whole tablets, with 90% confidence intervals (CI) evaluated against the standard bioequivalence range (80–125%).

Results

In 24 participants, a one-compartment model described rifapentine data well. A two-compartment model with a mixture component for fast/intermediate and slow acetylators best described isoniazid. Rifapentine and isoniazid demonstrated similar bioavailability across all dosing forms, meeting formal bioequivalence criteria. The absorption rates for suspended tablets were faster than those for whole tablets by 22.2% (90% CI 12.4–30.8) for rifapentine and 35% (90% CI 26.1–42.6) for isoniazid.

Conclusion

Both rifapentine and isoniazid, whether in fixed-dose combinations or as standalone, showed similar bioavailability when administered as whole tablets or suspended in water. These findings support dosing in children and other populations without the need to adjust rifapentine or isoniazid doses, thereby supporting broader access to the 3HP regimen.

Pan African Clinical Trials Registry

PACTR202306775627089, registration date June 15, 2023.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer Nature, 2025
National Category
Pharmaceutical Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-584086 (URN)10.1007/s40262-025-01576-3 (DOI)001590904200001 ()41075147 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-105018600034 (Scopus ID)
Note

De två första författarna delar förstaförfattarskapet

De två sista författarna delar sistaförfattarskapet

Available from: 2026-04-09 Created: 2026-04-09 Last updated: 2026-08-19Bibliographically approved
4. Joint Modeling of Time to Positivity (TTP), Mycobacterium Tuberculosis - Molecular Bacterial Load Assay (TB-MBLA), and Lipoarabinomannan (PATHFAST TB LAM) antigen test: Quantifying Inter-Biomarker Correlations and Drug Effects in Pulmonary Tuberculosis
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Joint Modeling of Time to Positivity (TTP), Mycobacterium Tuberculosis - Molecular Bacterial Load Assay (TB-MBLA), and Lipoarabinomannan (PATHFAST TB LAM) antigen test: Quantifying Inter-Biomarker Correlations and Drug Effects in Pulmonary Tuberculosis
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(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
National Category
Infectious Medicine
Research subject
Pharmaceutical Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-596015 (URN)
Available from: 2026-08-19 Created: 2026-08-19 Last updated: 2026-08-21

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