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Comparative Analysis of Pharmacoeconomic and Pharmacometric Modeling in the Cost-Effectiveness Evaluation of Sunitinib Therapy with Therapeutic Drug Monitoring for Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Medicine and Pharmacy, Faculty of Pharmacy, Department of Pharmaceutical Biosciences. Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Medicine and Pharmacy, Faculty of Pharmacy, Department of Pharmacy.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1258-8297
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Medicine and Pharmacy, Faculty of Pharmacy, Department of Pharmaceutical Biosciences. Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Medicine and Pharmacy, Faculty of Pharmacy, Department of Pharmacy.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2979-679X
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Background: Cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) increasingly use models to predict long-term outcomes and translate trial data to real-world settings. Model structure uncertainty affects these predictions. This study evaluates a pharmacometric modeling approach against traditional pharmacoeconomic models for CEAs of sunitinib in gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST).

Methods: A two-arm trial comparing sunitinib 37.5 mg daily to no treatment was simulated using a pharmacometric model framework. Four existing pharmacoeconomic models (time-to-event (TTE) and Markov models) were applied to the survival data and linked to logistic regression models describing the toxicity data (neutropenia, thrombocytopenia, hypertension, fatigue and hand-foot syndrome (HFS)) to create pharmacoeconomic model frameworks. All five frameworks were used to simulate clinical outcomes and sunitinib treatment costs, including a therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) scenario.

Results: The pharmacometric model predicted sunitinib treatment costs an additional 147,065 euro/QALY compared to no treatment, with deviations -23.2% (discrete Markov), -17.8%% (continuous Markov), +3.8% (TTE Weibull) and +27.8% (TTE exponential) from the pharmacoeconomic model frameworks. The pharmacometric models captured the change in toxicity over treatment cycles (e.g. increased HFS incidence until cycle 4 with a decrease thereafter), a pattern not observed in the pharmacoeconomic models (e.g. stable HFS incidence over all treatment cycles). Furthermore, the pharmacoeconomic models excessively forecasted the percentage of patients encountering sub-therapeutic concentrations of sunitinib over the course of time (pharmacoeconomic: 24.6% at cycle 2 to 98.7% at cycle 16, versus pharmacometric: 13.7% at cycle 2 to 34.1% at cycle 16).

Conclusions: Model structure significantly influences CEA predictions. The pharmacometric model more closely represented real-world toxicity trends and drug exposure changes. The relevance of these findings depends on the specific question a CEA seeks to address.

National Category
Medical and Health Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-527636OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-527636DiVA, id: diva2:1855889
Available from: 2024-05-03 Created: 2024-05-03 Last updated: 2024-05-06
In thesis
1. Model-based evaluation of biomarkers for dose-individualization in oncology
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Model-based evaluation of biomarkers for dose-individualization in oncology
2024 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

In contemporary cancer care, several issues are garnering increasing attention. First, significant inter-individual variability among patients challenges the effectiveness of a uniform dosing approach. Second, the escalating costs of treatments necessitate careful consideration when selecting doses and other clinical modalities, including biomarkers, while balancing economic constraints. The objective of this thesis was to evaluate techniques for tailoring doses and guiding clinical decisions for cancer patients through the development and implementation of various models, with the aim of improving treatment outcomes in terms of both efficacy and safety. 

Through a model-based framework integrating sunitinib pharmacokinetics (PK), adverse events, biomarkers, tumor dynamics and their correlation with overall survival, different treatment schedules and biomarkers for dose individualization were explored. Based on the proposed threshold values, neutrophil count (ANC) and the biomarker sVEGFR-3 were identified as offering the best balance between safety and efficacy for sunitinib in gastro-intestinal stromal tumors (GIST) and could thus serve as viable guides for dose individualization in clinical practice. Given its routine measurement, dose adjustments guided by ANC may be preferable in clinical settings. The feasibility of utilizing diastolic blood pressure (dBP) for personalized dose optimization of tyrosine-kinase inhibitors in clinical settings is constrained due to its reliance on repeated measurements taken at consistent intervals. 

For axitinib and sunitinib, model-based predictions using multiple clinical measurements were more accurate than single sample measurements. For drugs with high unexplained inter-individual variability (IIV), low residual variability (RUV), and low inter-occasional variability (IOV), therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) provided a more accurate measure of exposure. Conversely, for drugs with low IIV and high RUV and IOV, pharmacogenetic profiling was more suitable. However, the prevalence of pharmacogenetic subtypes and the challenge of measuring exposure metrics like AUC through limited sampling also influence these approaches.

This research further emphasizes how model structure affects the outcomes of cost-effectiveness analyses and consequently the potential implications for regulatory decisions. Although creating mechanistic models for these analyses demands substantial initial effort, the growing need for model-based analyses in drug approval is likely to make these models more accessible for future compounds. Moreover, such models are expected to be more biologically plausible and therefore more reflective of reality and offer flexibility for exploring alternative dosages with limited additional effort.

Using model-based assessments, the relationship between the PK and PK-pharmacodynamic (PKPD) profiles of adverse events arising from therapies for acute lymphocytic leukemia were established. For PEG-asparaginase, the PK model categorized 93% of patients who experienced inactivation against PEG-asparaginase as having an increased clearance, and 86% of patients who did not experience hypersensitivity as maintaining stable clearance throughout their asparaginase treatment. This approach marks a potential method for predicting inactivation by identifying early changes in clearance. For vincristine, model-informed precision dosing was shown to reduce the incidence of vincristine-induced peripheral neuropathy (VIPN) from 62.1% to 53.9%, though the clinical impact remains modest.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Uppsala: Acta Universitatis Upsaliensis, 2024. p. 86
Series
Digital Comprehensive Summaries of Uppsala Dissertations from the Faculty of Pharmacy, ISSN 1651-6192 ; 353
Keywords
pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics, biomarkers, pharmacometrics, oncology, dose adaptation
National Category
Cancer and Oncology Pharmaceutical Sciences Social and Clinical Pharmacy Pediatrics
Research subject
Clinical Pharmacology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-527383 (URN)978-91-513-2153-0 (ISBN)
Public defence
2024-08-30, B41, BMC, Husargatan 3, Uppsala, 13:15 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Funder
Swedish Cancer Society, CAN 20 1226 PjFSwedish Childhood Cancer Foundation, PR2021-0064
Available from: 2024-06-05 Created: 2024-05-06 Last updated: 2024-06-05

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Karlsson, MatsFriberg, Lena

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