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Design-Based Inference under Random Potential Outcomes
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Statistics.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2623-8549
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

We develop a design-based framework for causal inference that accommodates random potential outcomes without introducing outcome models, thereby extending the classical Neyman-Rubin paradigm in which outcomes are treated as fixed. By modelling potential outcomes as random functions driven by a latent stochastic environment, causal estimands are defined as expectations over this mechanism rather than as functionals of a single realised potential-outcome schedule. We show that under local dependence, cross-sectional averaging exhibits an ergodic property that links a single realised experiment to the underlying stochastic mechanism, providing a fundamental justification for using classical design-based statistics to conduct inference on expectation-based causal estimands. We establish consistency, asymptotic normality, and feasible variance estimation for aggregate estimators under general dependency graphs. Our results clarify the conditions under which design-based inference extends beyond realised potential-outcome schedules and remains valid for mechanism-level causal targets.

Keywords [en]
Riesz representation, local dependence, variance estimation, Hilbert space methods, dependency graphs
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics Statistics in Social Sciences
Research subject
Statistics; Mathematics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-575350DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2505.01324OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-575350DiVA, id: diva2:2026744
Available from: 2026-01-09 Created: 2026-01-09 Last updated: 2026-04-23

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Yang, Yukai

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