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Rainfall Inequality, Political Power, and Ethnic Conflict in Africa
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
2026 (English)In: American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, ISSN 1945-7731, E-ISSN 1945-774X, Vol. 18, no 3, p. 38-60Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

How are ethnic inequality and ethnic violence related? We empirically investigate this question using an innovative measure of resource inequality between ethnic groups, based on rainfall on ethnic homelands during the plant-growing season. Our main dataset covers the period 1950–2020 and includes 250 ethnicities, located across 43 African countries. Our results indicate that rainfall-based inequality is a strong predictor of ethnic violence and that the link heavily depends on the power relations across ethnic groups. In terms of mechanisms, our results suggest that resource inequality leads to more ethnic conflicts by exacerbating grievances. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
American Economic Association, 2026. Vol. 18, no 3, p. 38-60
National Category
Peace and Conflict Studies
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URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-576512DOI: 10.1257/pol.20210174ISI: 001841972500002Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105047616110OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-576512DiVA, id: diva2:2029061
Available from: 2026-01-16 Created: 2026-01-16 Last updated: 2026-08-24Bibliographically approved

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Rogall, Thorsten

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